ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUSTAINED TORRENTIAL RAINS IN JUNES DURING 1958-2000

Day-to-day precipitation data of Juries during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.

Impacts of Cloud-Induced Mass Forcing on the Development of Moist Potential Vorticity Anomaly During Torrential Rains

The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.

Evolution of Instability before and during a Torrential Rainstorm in North China

NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Approximately twelve hours before the rainstorm,the atmosphere was mainly dominated by convective instability in the lower level of 900-800 hPa.The strong southwesterly low-level jet conveyed the moist and warm airflow continuously to the area of torrential rain,maintaining and enhancing the unstable energy.When the precipitation occurred,unstable energy was released and the convective instability weakened.Meanwhile,due to the baroclinicity enhancement in the atmosphere,the symmetric instability strengthened,maintaining and promoting the subsequent torrential rain.Deriving the convective instability tendency equation demonstrated that the barotropic component of potential divergence and the advection term played a major role in enhancing the convective instability before the rainstorm.Analysis of the tendency equation of moist potential vorticity showed that the coupled term of vertical vorticity and the baroclinic component of potential divergence was the primary factor influencing the development of symmetric instability during the precipitation.Comparing the effects of these factors on convective instability and symmetric instability showed some correlation.

Diagnosis of the Kinetic Energy of the“21·7”Extreme Torrential Rainfall Event in Henan Province,China

An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.

Case study of debris flow disaster scenario caused by torrential rain on Kiyomizu-dera, Kyoto, Japan - using Hyper KANAKO system

This paper presents debris-flow numerical simulations using the Hyper KANAKO system,developed by the authors.The system uses the debris flow simulator KANAKO 2D equipped with a graphical user interface(GUI);hence,a user can easily produce appropriate landform data for simulations using standard laser profiler data,and visualize the results using a GIS.Hyper KANAKO was applied to the streams around Kiyomizu-dera in Kyoto,Japan.Kiyomizu-dera is a famous temple in Japan which is visited by numerous tourists throughout the year.We simulated a disaster scenario of debris flow caused by torrential rain.We set the hydrograph using rainfall intensity data,and set the landform data using information from the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan(GSI) and a digital elevation model(DEM).We evaluated different mesh sizes and also used a digital surface model(DSM) to consider the building heights.The simulation results showed that with small mesh size,the debris flowmoved through the roads,which seems realistic for a disaster situation.When buildings were considered,the flow direction changed,and a 1-m flow depth,which was deeper than in other cases,appeared in the flow path.This may pose a dangerous situation for evacuations.

Sensitivity Analysis of Ensemble Simulations on a Torrential Rainfall Case over South China Using Multiple PBL and SL Parameterizations

A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL)and the surface layer(SL)in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of convection.This study examined an ensemble that consists of the available suites of PBL and SL parameterizations based on a torrential rainfall event over south China.The sensitivity of the simulations was investigated against objective measurements using multiple PBL and SL parameterization schemes.The main causes of the bias from different parameterization schemes were further analysed by comparing the good and bad ensemble members.The results showed that good members tended to underestimate the rainfall amount but presented a decent evolution of mesoscale convective systems that were responsible for the torrential rainfall.Using the total energy mass flux(TEMF)scheme,the bad members overestimated the amount and spatial coverage of rainfall.The failure of the bad member was due to a spurious convection initiation(CI)resulting from the overestimated high-θe elevated air.The spurious CI developed and expanded rapidly,causing intensive and extensive rainfall over south China.Consistent with previous studies,the TEMF scheme tends to produce a warmer and moister PBL environment.The detailed sensitivity analysis of this case may provide reference for the operational forecast of rainfall over south China using multiple PBL and SL parameterizations.

Study of Relation between Torrential Rain Days in Fuxin and Sunspot Cycle

The quasi 11-year cycle of sunspot activities and torrential rain days in Fuxin during 1951-2005 were studied.As was shown in the results,the relative number of sunspots and the torrential rain days in the sunspot cycle of trough value were significantly related with a correlation coefficient of 0.842.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between torrential rain days in Fuxin and the relative number of sunspots of certain year within the sunspot cycle of trough value reached 0.737.It was clear that the torrential rain days in Fuxin were closely related with solar activity.The conclusion would provide the favorable climate background and basis for the study of regularity of rainstorm outbreak,monitoring and forecasting of torrential rain and regularity of agricultural drought and flood.

STUDY ON MEASURING AND WARNING OF FLOOD-CAUSING TORRENTIAL RAIN IN HUAIHE R. BASIN BASED ON CINRAD AND GMS

1 INTRODUCTION Locating between the southern temperate climate zone and northern subtropical climate zone, the basin of Huaihe River witnesses frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters, especially from May to August when heavy rains usually result in floods. There has been much research at home and abroad on the estimation of rainfall based on radar data and satellite imagery . Experiments on heavy rains are mainly, however, based on Type 713 weather radar, which limits quantitative estimation of rainfall. With data from a Doppler weather radar on the S band （CINRAD/SA） co-manufactured by China and U.S.A. in 1999, this work makes quantitative estimation of rainfall over the Anhui region in the Huaihe River valley, supplemented with GMS satellite data, records from weather stations and automatic rain gauges. A localized model and set of indices have been set up to utilize the CINRAD/SA radar and GMS satellite, flood-causing heavy rains are pre-warned and forecast with interpretations of the NWP product HLAFS, and a software ofpre-warning operation is finalized to watch this kind of rain over the valley.

Conventional Analysis on a Heavy or Torrential Rain Weather Process

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method] Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrential rain and local heavy rainstorm in Binzhou City during 4-5 August,2010 was analyzed from the circulation situation,physical quantity field,radar echo and so on.[Result] The westerly trough and cold air were the trigger mechanisms of precipitation.The warm wet air flow at the edge of subtropical high and the high-altitude low trough were the main systems of precipitation.It was the typical precipitation process that the northwest of subtropical high overlapped with the westerly trough.In the prior period,the high temperature continued.The cold air at 500 hPa made the convection strengthen.It was the main reason that the local precipitation was strong.In the forecast of rainstorm,the specific humidity,K index and SI index were the good physical quantities and reference indexes.In the formation process of rainstorm,K index had the increasing process.When the rainstorm finished,or the rain intensity weakened,K index decreased obviously.SI index indicated the development of convective precipitation.The radar echo analysis found that the mesocyclone appeared in the process for a short time.For it weakened quickly and disappeared in the shift process,the strong precipitation and gale were formed in the west of Binzou,but the hail wasn’t generated.[Conclusion] The research provided the experience for the forecast of such weather in future.

Analysis on the Genesis and the Omission of a Torrential Rain over Linqu on 9 July 2012

In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain.The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system（MICAPS） 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data,and finally numerical weather prediction was tested,which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain.The results showed that one of the important reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow,and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an important reason.The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field.Therefore,it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain.Besides,the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.

Search Methods for Evacuation Routes during Torrential Rain Disasters Using Genetic Algorithms and GIS

The present study aims to propose a method to search for the most appropriate evacuation routes that take calorie consumption required for evacuees to reach evacuation sites into consideration, by focusing on disasters caused by heavy rainfall, and using genetic algorithm (GA) and geographic information system (GIS). Specifically, GA was used to design and develop an evacuation route search algorithm and 4 parameters including the number of generations, mutation rate number of individuals and crossover rate were set by conducting sensitivity analyses. Additionally, GIS was also used to create road network data and contour data for digital maps and calculate the altitude of each crossover point. Based on these, the necessary calorie consumption to reach evacuation sites for each route was calculated, and that made it possible to derive the several evacuation routes with the small values unlike other methods. By using GA and GIS to suggest detailed evacuation routes, which take the necessary calories required to reach evacuation sites into consideration, it can be expected that the present study should contribute to the decision-making of evacuees. Additionally, as the method is based on public information, the method has high spatial and temporal repeatability. Because evacuation routes are proposed based on quantified data, the selected evacuation routes are quantitatively evaluated, and are an effective indicator for deciding on an evacuation route. Additionally, evacuation routes that accurately reflect current conditions can be derived by utilizing detailed information as data.

Study on Torrential Rain Disaster Index and Threshold in Zhangjiajie City

Based on the precipitation data and torrential rain disaster data in Zhangjiajie City of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020,taking the claim cases of the property and cargo insurance(hereinafter referred to as"property and cargo insurance")from Hunan Branch of the People’s Insurance Company of China as the research sample,the Dominance Analysis Method was used to determine the influence weights of disaster-causing factors to establish a comprehensive disaster-causing index(I)model of torrential rain.Second,an exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the number of town or street which filed claims of property and cargo insurance and I,then to determine the threshold of I corresponding to different accident levels.The claim cases caused by torrential rain disaster in Zhangjiajie in the flood season of 2021 were selected to verify the I and its threshold.The results showed that the number of property and cargo insurance accidents caused by torrential rain in Zhangjiajie was generally low in east and west but high in middle areas.Among the disaster-causing factors,the weight of the 96-h accumulated precipitation on the scope of accident was the largest,reaching 28.6%.The simulated grades of the scope of accident,the amount of claim and the number of accidents of property and cargo insurance had a high correlation with the grades of actual disasters,and all passed the test at the 0.01 significance level.The threshold test results showed that the consistency rate or accuracy between the predicted level and the actual level of torrential rain disaster-causing cases was 71.4%,in which the predicted values of accuracy for the mild,moderate and severe disaster levels were 70%,70%and 100%,respectively.Therefore,the threshold of I established in this study can be used for the industrial meteorological services related to the property and cargo insurance in Zhangjiajie.

EFFECTS OF LOW-LATITUDE MONSOON SURGE ON THE INCREASE IN DOWNPOUR FROM TROPICAL STORM BILIS

By using the dataset of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Optimal Tracks, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and intensive surface observations, a study is performed of the influences of a low-latitude monsoon surge on the longer persistence and increase in torrential rains from the landing tropical storm Bilis. Results suggest that the southwest monsoon was anomalously active after Bilis came ashore. The westerly winds in Bilis's south side might give rise to the poleward movement of the SW monsoon, thus enlarging the pressure gradient between Bilis and the anticyclonic circulation to the south with the result of greatly intensified SW monsoon, which fueled plentiful water vapor, heat and momentum into the declining Bilis and allowed its long stay over land instead of erosion and disappearance. Before Bilis's landfall, the 2006 East Asian monsoon surge, characterized by the atmospheric ISO, experienced remarkable northward propagation. After landfall, the strong surge and powerful low frequency vapor convergence were just on the south side of Bilis, resulting in sharply increased rainfall. In addition, a broad belt of high-valued vapor fluxes extended from the eastern Arabian Sea via the Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea into the south of China. The belt was linked with the SW monsoon surge forming a moist tongue stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the south of China, which supplied continuously abundant vapor for Bilis along with the surge propagating poleward.

Diagnostic Analyses and Application of the Moist Ageostrophic Vector Q

Considering the main thermal forcing factor, which is critical for the development of synoptic systems, the concept of the moist ageostrophic vector Q is introduced. A formula of the moist ageostrophic Q and the ageostrophic diabatic equation, in which the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q is taken as a single forcing term, is derived. Meanwhile, the moist ageostrophic Q is applied to diagnose a torrential rain process in North China. The results suggest that the moist ageostrophic Q can clearly reveal the system development during the torrential rain process; the corresponding relationship between the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q and the rainfall area is better than that of the vertical velocity (w) and the divergence of the dry Q; the 6-h rainfall region can be correctly drawn according to the negative area of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q, and its precipitation is positively correlated to the magnitude of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q. The research provides valuable information for improving short-term weather forecast.

The Water Vapor Transport Model at the Regional Boundaryduring the Meiyu Period

The water vapor transport model at the regional boundary in the Meiyu period is put forward through diagnostic analysis. The numerical simulation on the water vapor transport at the boundary of China in the heavy rainfall period during June–July 1998 shows that the feature of water vapor transport in June is different from that in July. The main body of the water cycle that forms the torrential rain in the Yangtze River Valley is made up of water vapor transport at the western and southern boundaries of the China region in June, whereas the water vapor flow at the western boundary in middle Tibet turns out to be the main body of water vapor sources in July. The water vapor transport at the western boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and the southern boundary of China plays an important role in the torrential rain in the Yangtze River Valley. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water vapor flow at the regional boundary and their theoretical model would provide the scientific proof for the heavy rain forecasts in the Yangtze River Valley.

A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April - December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.

The features of physical geography in the transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain

The features of physical geography in the transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain possess transitional characters evidently in two directions: one is from the western mountain to the eastern plain and the other is from southern subtropical zone to northern temperate zone. Torrential rain, especially strong torrential rain is frequent in the transitional region, and there are many torrential rain centers. A majority of torrential rain is distributed among 100-200 m asl. The winter temperature at 100-400 m asl is higher than that in Huanghuai Plain whose altitude is lower than that of the transitional region, and the highest temperature in January appears at 350-400 m asl.The thickness of warm slope belt in the transitional region varies from 100 m to 250 m asl. The formation of torrential rain and warm slope belt is the result of joint action of atmospheric circulation and local terrain. Frequent torrential rains and warm slope belt had tremendous influences on the soil properties, plant distribution and local climate in the transitional region.

Objective Analysis of Circulation Extremes During the 21 July 2012Torrential Rain in Beijing

It has been reported that the heaviest rain event since 1951 hit Beijing on 21 July 2012 （henceforth referred to as the 721 case）.The frequency and extreme attributes of the large-scale circulation patterns observed during the 721 case are explored by using obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis （PCA） and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR.The occurrence frequency of the 721-type circulation during the summers of 1951-2012 is 10.9%,while the frequency of torrential rain under this type of circulation is 4.51%.Relative to other rainstorms with similar large-scale circulations during the study period,the 721 case is characterized by a more westward extension of the subtropical high over the western North Pacific,a stronger low-level jet in the lower troposphere over the south of Beijing,a larger amount of ambient precipitable water,and a stronger vertical wind shear over Beijing.Among the 621 days with the 721-type circulation during the study period,the 721 case ranks the 54th in terms of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing,the 209th in terms of the local vertical wind shear,and the 8th in terms of the local precipitable water.The 721 case is particularly extreme with respect to the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water.Cases with similar circulations and equal or greater values of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water have occurred thrice during the summers of 1951-2012 （i.e.,once every 21 years）.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES IN CUMULONIMBUS——PART Ⅱ CASE STUDIES OF SHOWER,HAILSTORM AND TORRENTIAL RAIN

A shower cloud observed in Jiangxi,a hailstorm observed in Hebei and“75.8”torrential rain in Henan are simulated with our microphysical model in a one-dimensional framework.The model,using the radio- sonde data as input,gets its output which shows agreement in many aspects as compared with observations in each case.The glaciation of small cumulus cloud,low precipitation efficiency of hailstorm and the per- sistence of torrential rain are demonstrated.It is also shown that the Bergeron process has little influence, but the warm-rain process plays an important role in the formation of precipitation in cumulonimbus with a warm cloud base.