Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following f...Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following flood season (Tang et al., 1982a). We have also designed a simplethermodynamical model and applied it to the forecasting of precipitations in the flood season(Tang et al., 1982 b,c). The practical forecast started from 1975. Before 1980, however, therewere only 40-50 stations in China for measuring the soil temperature at a 1.6m depth. Since1980, the stations have been increased to a total of about 180, but no available mean valueshad been obtained from newly added stations before 1982. Therefore the analysis and map-ping of anomalies of soil temperature was not performed until 1983, and from then on theprecision of analysis has been greatly improved. The following is the actual situation of forecast in five years from 1983 to 1987.展开更多
To represent well the characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions, chart of 3-dekad moving total precipitation is proposed in this paper first. Then this kind of chart is expanded in terms of Chebyshev polyn...To represent well the characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions, chart of 3-dekad moving total precipitation is proposed in this paper first. Then this kind of chart is expanded in terms of Chebyshev polynomial at irregular grids, and the quantitative representation of precipitation is got. Finally the Chebyshev coefficients are forecasted by using the forecasting method of vector similarity in phase space proposed by Zhou (1992). Using above mentioned procedures temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation over the Huanghe-- Huaihe-- H aihe Plain in China are forecasted.展开更多
文摘Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following flood season (Tang et al., 1982a). We have also designed a simplethermodynamical model and applied it to the forecasting of precipitations in the flood season(Tang et al., 1982 b,c). The practical forecast started from 1975. Before 1980, however, therewere only 40-50 stations in China for measuring the soil temperature at a 1.6m depth. Since1980, the stations have been increased to a total of about 180, but no available mean valueshad been obtained from newly added stations before 1982. Therefore the analysis and map-ping of anomalies of soil temperature was not performed until 1983, and from then on theprecision of analysis has been greatly improved. The following is the actual situation of forecast in five years from 1983 to 1987.
文摘To represent well the characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions, chart of 3-dekad moving total precipitation is proposed in this paper first. Then this kind of chart is expanded in terms of Chebyshev polynomial at irregular grids, and the quantitative representation of precipitation is got. Finally the Chebyshev coefficients are forecasted by using the forecasting method of vector similarity in phase space proposed by Zhou (1992). Using above mentioned procedures temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation over the Huanghe-- Huaihe-- H aihe Plain in China are forecasted.
