The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds.Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme.In this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation.The results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved variables.The probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous studies.Further analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the future.The results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.

Which approach of total hip arthroplasty is the best efficacy and least complication?

BACKGROUND Total hip arthroplasty is as an effective intervention to relieve pain and improve hip function.Approaches of the hip have been exhaustively explored about pros and cons.The efficacy and the complications of hip approaches remains inconclusive.This study conducted an umbrella review to systematically appraise previous meta-analysis(MAs)including conventional posterior approach(PA),and minimally invasive surgeries as the lateral approach(LA),direct anterior approach(DAA),2-incisions method,mini-lateral approach and the newest technique direct superior approach(DSA)or supercapsular percutaneouslyassisted total hip(SuperPath).AIM To compare the efficacy and complications of hip approaches that have been published in all MAs and randomized controlled trials(RCTs).METHODS MAs were identified from MEDLINE and Scopus from inception until 2023.RCTs were then updated from the latest MA to September 2023.This study included studies which compared hip approaches and reported at least one outcome such as Harris Hip Score(HHS),dislocation,intra-operative fracture,wound compliData were independently selected,extracted and assessed by two reviewers.Network MA and cluster rank and surface under the cumulative ranking curve(SUCRA)were estimated for treatment efficacy and safety.RESULTS Finally,twenty-eight MAs(40 RCTs),and 13 RCTs were retrieved.In total 47 RCTs were included for reanalysis.The results of corrected covered area showed high degree(13.80%).Among 47 RCTs,most of the studies were low risk of bias in part of random process and outcome reporting,while other domains were medium to high risk of bias.DAA significantly provided higher HHS at three months than PA[pooled unstandardized mean difference(USMD):3.49,95%confidence interval(CI):0.98,6.00 with SUCRA:85.9],followed by DSA/SuperPath(USMD:1.57,95%CI:-1.55,4.69 with SUCRA:57.6).All approaches had indifferent dislocation and intraoperative fracture rates.SUCRA comparing early functional outcome and composite complications(dislocation,intra-operative fracture,wound complication,and nerve injury)found DAA was the best approach followed by DSA/SuperPath.CONCLUSION DSA/SuperPath had better earlier functional outcome than PA,but still could not overcome the result of DAA.This technique might be the other preferred option with acceptable complications.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Meta-analysis of factors influencing anterior knee pain after total knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND Total knee arthroplasty(TKA)is a mature procedure recommended for correcting knee osteoarthritis deformity,relieving pain,and restoring normal biomechanics.Although TKA is a successful and cost-effective procedure,patient dissatisfaction is as high as 50%.Knee pain after TKA is a significant cause of patient dissatisfaction;the most common location for residual pain is the anterior region.Between 4%and 40%of patients have anterior knee pain(AKP).AIM To investigate the effect of various TKA procedures on postoperative AKP.METHODS We searched PubMed,EMBASE,and Cochrane from January 2000 to September 2022.Randomized controlled trials with one intervention in the experimental group and no corresponding intervention(or other interventions)in the control group were collected.Two researchers independently read the title and abstract of the studies,preliminarily screened the articles,and read the full text in detail according to the selection criteria.Conflicts were resolved by consultation with a third researcher.And relevant data from the included studies were extracted and analyzed using Review Manager 5.4 software.RESULTS There were 25 randomized controlled trials;13 were comparative studies with or without patellar resurfacing.The meta-analysis showed no significant difference between the experimental and control groups(P=0.61).Six studies were comparative studies of circumpatellar denervation vs non-denervation,divided into three subgroups for meta-analysis.The two-subgroup meta-analysis showed no significant difference between the experimental and the control groups(P=0.31,P=0.50).One subgroup meta-analysis showed a significant difference between the experimental and control groups(P=0.001).Two studies compared fixed-bearing TKA and mobile-bearing TKA;the results meta-analysis showed no significant difference between the experimental and control groups(P=0.630).Two studies compared lateral retinacular release vs non-release;the meta-analysis showed a significant difference between the experimental and control groups(P=0.002);two other studies compared other factors.CONCLUSION Patellar resurfacing,mobile-bearing TKA,and fixed-bearing TKA do not reduce the incidence of AKP.Lateral retinacular release can reduce AKP;however,whether circumpatellar denervation can reduce AKP is controversial.

Total flavonoids of Astragalus membranaceus protect against 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine-induced neurotoxicity in mice by inhibiting ferroptosis through SLC7A11/GPX-4 signaling pathway

Parkinson’s disease(PD)is a common neurodegenerative disorder with no cure.Astragalus membranaceus is used in Chinese culture as a food supplement to boost immunity.The present study aimed to explore the neuroprotective effects of total flavonoids extracted from A.membranaceus(TFA)and their protective mechanisms.TFA offered neuroprotection against 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine(MPTP)in the mouse model of Parkinsonism,by improving behavior performance in the gait analysis and pole test,and inhibiting the decline of tyrosine hydroxylase(TH)positive neurons and TH protein expression in substantia nigra of mice.TFA also prevented 1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium(MPP+)induced neurotoxicity in SHSY5Y cells,by increasing GSH and GSH/GSSG ratio,and reducing reactive oxygen species.In addition,the neuroprotective effects of TFA were associated with its ability to restore MPTP/MPP+induced downregulation of SLC7A11 and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX-4).In conclusion,we demonstrated that TFA exerted significant neuroprotection against MPTP/MPP+induced neurodegeneration by inhibiting ferroptosis through the regulation of SLC7A11/GPX-4 axis,suggesting the use of TFA as a possible food supplement in the prevention of PD.

Research Progress and Prospects of Total Factor Productivity in the Construction Industry

The high-quality development of the construction industry fundamentally stems from the significant improvement of total factor productivity.Therefore,it is of crucial significance for promoting the development of the construction industry to a higher level by scientifically and accurately measuring the total factor productivity of the construction industry and deeply analyzing the influencing factors behind it.Based on a comprehensive consideration of research methods and influencing factors,this paper systematically reviews the existing relevant literature on total factor productivity in the construction industry,aiming to reveal the current research development trend in this field and point out potential problems.This effort aims to provide a solid theoretical foundation and valuable reference for further in-depth research,and jointly promote the continuous progress and development of total factor productivity research in the construction industry.

Quantification of Total Phenols, Total Flavonoids, Total Anthocyanins and Evaluation of Antioxidant and Antiradical Activities of Detarium Senegalense Extracts from Chad

The aim of the present work is to assess the value of Detarium Senegalense by determining the content of total phenols, total flavonoids and total anthocyanins, and by evaluating the free radical scavenging activity of Detarium Senegalense extracts. For this purpose, sequential extraction using solvents of increasing polarity was essential. The various extracts obtained underwent phytochemical and biochemical analyses. Phytochemical screening revealed the presence of flavonoids, alkaloids, tannins, polyphenols, anthocyanins and steroids/terpenes. Quantitative analysis of total polyphenols, total flavonoids and total anthocyanins yielded the following results: total flavonoids (0.803 ± 0029 mg EQ/100g P for acetone extract of roots and 0.871 ± 0.401 mg EQ/100g P for methanol extract of leaves);total polyphenols (23.298 ± 12.68 mg EAG/100g P for acetone extract of roots and 24.69 ± 0.49 401 mg EAG/100g P for methanol extract of leaves);total monomeric anthocyanins (44.697 ± 0.939 mg EC3G/100g P and 16.699 ± 0.193 mg EC3G/100g P respectively for acetone and methanol extracts of stem bark). DPPH free radical scavenging activity was 1.674 ± 0.023 mg/mL for the acetone extract and 0.934 ± 0.24 mg/mL for the methanol extract of roots. .

Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Physicochemical and Biochemical Characterization, Total Phenolic and Energy Value from Bulbs of Different Onion (Allium cepa L.) Varieties in Senegal

The purpose of this study is to investigate the physicochemical properties of some local varieties of onion (Allium cepa L.) and compare them with an imported variety, all collected in May 2021. Proteins, reducing sugars, lipids, and polyphenol content were estimated according to the AFNOR standardized methods. The determination of calcium, magnesium, iron, sodium, potassium and phosphorus was performed by atomic absorption spectrophotometer coupled with a CCD detector. The results highlighted an average acidity of 0.377% ± 0.002% lower than the value of the imported variety which is 0.520% ± 0.001%. Local varieties have a pH ranging from 6.35 ± 0.003 to 6.42 ± 0.004, while the variety has a pH of 6.36 ± 0.003. The ash and dry matter contents vary respectively from 4.788% ± 0.004% to 8.253% ± 0.003% and 7.945% ± 0.021% to 11.945% ± 0.007% for the local varieties. Moreover, the imported one has ash and dry matter contents of 5.175% ± 0.007% and 10.035% ± 0.021% respectively. The results show that the protein, reducing sugar and lipid contents in the local onion varieties vary respectively from 2.815 ± 0.000 to 15.634 ± 0.001 g·100 g-1;4.691 ± 0.001 to 12.596 ± 0.002 g·100 g-1 and 0.006 ± 0.001 to 0.050 ± 0.057 g·100 g-1. Furthermore, the imported variety has a protein, reducing sugar and lipid content of 5.649 ± 0.002;8.565 ± 0.002 g·100 g-1 and 0.011 ± 0.010 g·100 g-1 respectively. The maximum levels of total polyphenols are obtained in the imported variety, Bellani and Gandiol, respectively 9.973 ± 0.001, 4.535 ± 0.002, and 3.425 ± 0.006 mg EAG/g of dry matter. The local varieties have a significant calorific intake of between 35.451 ± 0.001 and 112.980 ± 0.003 kcal·100 g-1 compared to the imported one with an energy value of 56.953 ± 0.001 kcal·100 g-1 of dry matter. The bulbs of different onion varieties studied have a fairly high content of mineral elements. The potassium content of local varieties is between 502.16 ± 0.06 mg·100 g-1 and 582.77 ± 0.04 mg·100 g-1 while the imported variety has a content of 536.62 ± 1.30 mg·100 g-1. They note that the local varieties have a better calcium content (249.75 ± 0.07 to 434.20 ± 0.57 mg·100 g-1) and magnesium (142.15 ± 0.07 to 162.60 ± 0.42 mg·100 g-1) than the imported variety (229.58 ± 0.04 mg·100 g-1) except for the varieties White Grano (228.29 ± 0.01 mg·100 g-1) and Rouge Amposta (117.00 ± 0.42 mg·100 g-1) respectively. These results reveal that Gandiol, Dayo and Orient F1 are nutritionally found better due to their higher antioxidant property, proteins, carbohydrates, and reducing sugar and should be included in diets to supplement our daily allowance needed by the body.

Subsequent total joint arthroplasty: Are we learning from the first stage?

BACKGROUND With the increasing incidence of total joint arthroplasty(TJA),there is a desire to reduce peri-operative complications and resource utilization.As degenerative conditions progress in multiple joints,many patients undergo multiple proce-dures.AIM To determine if both physicians and patients learn from the patient’s initial arth-roplasty,resulting in improved outcomes following the second procedure.METHODS The institutional database was retrospectively queried for primary total hip arth-roplasty(THA)and total knee arthroplasty(TKA).Patients with only unilateral THA or TKA,and patients undergoing same-day bilateral TJA,were excluded.Patient demographics,comorbidities,and implant sizes were collected at the time of each procedure and patients were stratified by first vs second surgery.Outcome metrics evaluated included operative time,length of stay(LOS),disposition,90-d readmissions and emergency department(ED)visits.RESULTS A total of 642 patients,including 364 undergoing staged bilateral TKA and 278 undergoing bilateral THA,were analyzed.There was no significant difference in demographics or comorbidities between the first and second procedure,which were separated by a mean of 285 d.For THA and TKA,LOS was significantly less for the second surgery,with 66%of patients having a shorter hospitalization(P<0.001).THA patients had significantly decreased operative time only when the same sized implant was utilized(P=0.025).The vast majority(93.3%)of patients were discharged to the same type of location following their second surgery.However,when a change in disposition was present from the first surgery,patients were significantly more likely to be discharged to home after the second procedure(P=0.033).There was no difference between procedures for post-operative readmissions(P=0.438)or ED visits(P=0.915).CONCLUSION After gaining valuable experience recovering from the initial surgery,a patient’s perioperative outcomes are improved for their second TJA.This may be the result of increased confidence and decreased anxiety,and it supports the theory that enhanced patient education pre-operatively may improve outcomes.For the surgical team,the second procedure of a staged THA is more efficient,although this finding did not hold for TKA.

Potential applications of single-incision laparoscopic totally preperitoneal hernioplasty

BACKGROUND The totally preperitoneal(TPP)approach is a new concept that was recently introduced.Although the TPP approach combined with single-incision laparoscopic hernia repair has its own advantages,there is little evidence reflecting the characteristics and feasibility of either approach.AIM To analyze the potential applications of single-incision laparoscopic TPP(SILTPP)inguinal hernia hernioplasty for the treatment of inguinal hernias.METHODS A total of 152 SIL-TPP surgeries were performed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University from February 2019 to November 2022.A single-port,named Iconport,and standard laparoscopic instruments were used during the operation.Demographic data,intraoperative parameters and short-term postoperative outcomes were collected and retrospectively analyzed.RESULTS The demographic data of 152 patients underwent SIL-TPP were shown in Table 1.The average age was 49.5 years(range from 21 to 81 years).The average body mass index was 27.7 kg/m^(2)(range from 17.7 kg/m^(2) to 35.6 kg/m^(2)).SIL-TPP were conducted successfully in 147 patients.Three patients were converted to the SILtransabdominal preperitoneal laparoscopic herniorrhaphy at the initial stage of the study due to a lack of experience.In 2 patients with incisional hernias,an auxiliary operation hole was added during the SIL-TPP procedure,as required for surgery.The mean operative time was 64.5 minutes(range:36.0-110.0 minutes)for unilateral direct and femoral hernias and 81.6 minutes for indirect hernias(range:40.0-150.0 minutes).The mean postoperative hospital stay was 3.4 days.CONCLUSION SIL-TPP is feasible and has advantages for inguinal hernia repair.SIL-TPP has potential benefits for patients with various abdominal wall hernias.Consequently,doctors should be encouraged to actively apply the TPP approach combined with a single incision in their daily work.

Mortality rate after total knee arthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty in patients with a history of liver transplant

In this editorial I comment on the article by Ahmed et al published in a recent issue of the World J Orthop 2023;14:784-790.It is well known that patients who have undergone a liver transplant(LT)may need to have a total hip arthroplasty(THA)or total knee arthroplasty(TKA)implanted.Ahmed et al stated that the mortality rate in these patients was similar to the one of the general population.However,there are three articles previously published that found higher mortality in LT patients who experienced THA/TKA than in the general population(individuals without LT).Therefore,in this Editorial I would like to point out that there is controversy in the literature regarding whether LT patients undergoing THA/TKA have higher mortality than the general population.Therefore,future research should attempt to resolve this controversy.

Comparison efficacy and safety of total laparoscopic gastrectomy and laparoscopically assisted total gastrectomy in treatment of gastric cancer

BACKGROUND The development of laparoscopic technology has provided a new choice for surgery of gastric cancer(GC),but the advantages and disadvantages of laparoscopic total gastrectomy(LTG)and laparoscopic-assisted total gastrectomy(LATG)in treatment effect and safety are still controversial.The purpose of this study is to compare the efficacy and safety of the two methods in the treatment of GC,and to provide a basis for clinical decision-making.AIM To compare the efficacy of totally LTG(TLTG)and LATG in the context of radical gastrectomy for GC.Additionally,we investigated the safety and feasibility of the total laparoscopic esophagojejunostomy technique.METHODS Literature on comparative studies of the above two surgical methods for GC(TLTG group and LATG group)published before September 2022 were searched in the PubMed,Web of Science,Wanfang Database,CNKI,and other Chinese and English databases.In addition,the following search keywords were used:Gastric cancer,total gastrectomy,total laparoscopy,laparoscopy-assisted,esophagojejunal anastomosis,gastric/stomach cancer,total gastrectomy,totally/completely laparoscopic,laparoscopic assisted/laparoscopy assisted/laparoscopically assisted,and esophagojejunostomy/esophagojejunal anastomosis.Review Manager 5.3 software was used for the meta-analysis after two researchers independently screened the literature,extracted the data,and evaluated the risk of bias in the included studies.RESULTS After layer-by-layer screening,258 pieces of literature were recovered,and 11 of those pieces were eventually included.This resulted in a sample size of 2421 instances,with 1115 cases falling into the TLTG group and 1306 cases into the LATG group.Age or sex differences between the two groups were not statistically significant,according to the meta-analysis,however the average body mass index of the TLTG group was considerably higher than that of the LATG group(P=0.01).Compared with those in the LATG group,the incision length in the TLTG group was significantly shorter(P<0.001),the amount of intraoperative blood loss was significantly lower(P=0.003),the number of lymph nodes removed was significantly greater(P=0.04),and the time of first postoperative feeding and postoperative hospitalization were also significantly shorter(P=0.03 and 0.02,respectively).There were no significant differences in tumor size,length of proximal incisal margin,total operation time,anastomotic time,postoperative pain score,postoperative anal exhaust time,postoperative anastomosis-related complications(including anastomotic fistula,anastomotic stenosis,and anastomotic hemorrhage),or overall postoperative complication rate(P>0.05).CONCLUSION TLTG and esophagojejunostomy are safe and feasible.Compared with LATG,TLTG has the advantages of less trauma,less bleeding,easier access to lymph nodes,and faster postoperative recovery,and TLTG is also suitable for obese patients.

Probability Laws Derived from the Gamma Function

Several densities or probability laws of continuous random variables derive from the Euler Gamma function. These laws form the basis of sampling theory, namely hypothesis testing and estimation. Namely the gamma, beta, and Student law, through the chi-square law and the normal law are all distributions resulting from applications of Euleur functions.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Adaptive Update Distribution Estimation under Probability Byzantine Attack

The secure and normal operation of distributed networks is crucial for accurate parameter estimation.However,distributed networks are frequently susceptible to Byzantine attacks.Considering real-life scenarios,this paper investigates a probability Byzantine(PB)attack,utilizing a Bernoulli distribution to simulate the attack probability.Historically,additional detection mechanisms are used to mitigate such attacks,leading to increased energy consumption and burdens on distributed nodes,consequently diminishing operational efficiency.Differing from these approaches,an adaptive updating distributed estimation algorithm is proposed to mitigate the impact of PB attacks.In the proposed algorithm,a penalty strategy is initially incorporated during data updates to weaken the influence of the attack.Subsequently,an adaptive fusion weight is employed during data fusion to merge the estimations.Additionally,the reason why this penalty term weakens the attack has been analyzed,and the performance of the proposed algorithm is validated through simulation experiments.

Longitudinal dependence of the forecast accuracy of the ionospheric total electron content in the equatorial zone

The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are discovered.This also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC),which neural network methods have recently been widely used.However,the results are mainly presented for a limited set of meridians.This paper examines the longitudinal dependence of the TEC forecast accuracy in the equatorial zone.In this case,the methods are used that provided the best accuracy on three meridians:European(30°E),Southeastern(110°E)and American(75°W).Results for the stations considered are analyzed as a function of longitude using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Global Ionosphere Map(JPL GIM)for 2015.These results are for 2 h ahead and 24 h ahead forecast.It was found that in this case,based on the metric values,three groups of architectures can be distinguished.The first group included long short-term memory(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and temporal convolutional networks(TCN)models as a part of unidirectional deep learning models;the second group is based on the recurrent models from the first group,which were supplemented with a bidirectional algorithm,increasing the TEC forecasting accuracy by 2-3 times.The third group,which includes the bidirectional TCN architecture(BiTCN),provided the highest accuracy.For this architecture,according to data obtained for 9 equatorial stations,practical independence of the TEC prediction accuracy from longitude was observed under the following metrics(Mean Absolute Error MAE,Root Mean Square Error RMSE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE):MAE(2 h)is 0.2 TECU approximately;MAE(24 h)is 0.4 TECU approximately;RMSE(2 h)is less than 0.5 TECU except Niue station(RMSE(2 h)is 1 TECU approximately);RMSE(24 h)is in the range of 1.0-1.7 TECU;MAPE(2 h)<1%except Darwin station,MAPE(24 h)<2%.This result was confirmed by data from additional 5 stations that formed latitudinal chains in the equatorial part of the three meridians.The complete correspondence of the observational and predicted TEC values is illustrated using several stations for disturbed conditions on December 19-22,2015,which included the strongest magnetic storm in the second half of the year(min Dst=-155 nT).

An equivalent target plate damage probability calculation mathematics model and damage evaluation method

Aiming at the requirement of damage testing and evaluation of equivalent target plate based on the explosion of intelligent ammunition, this paper proposes a novel method for damage testing and evaluation method of circumferential equivalent target plate. Leveraging the dispersion characteristics parameters of fragment, we establish a calculation model of the fragment power situation and the damage calculation model under the condition of fragment ultimate penetration equivalent target plate. The damage model of equivalent target plate involves the fragment dispersion density, the local perforation damage criterion, the tearing damage model, and the damage probability. We use the camera to obtain the image of the equivalent target plate with fragment perforation, and research the algorithm of fragment distribution position recognition and fragment perforation area calculation method on the equivalent target plate by image processing technology. Based on the obtained parameters of the breakdown position and perforation area of fragments on equivalent target plate, we apply to damage calculation model of equivalent target plate, and calculate the damage probability of each equivalent target plate, and use the combined probabilistic damage calculation method to obtain the damage evaluation results of the circumferential equivalent target plate in an intelligent ammunition explosion experiment. Through an experimental testing, we verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed damage evaluation method by comparison, the calculation results can reflect the actual damage effect of the equivalent target plate.

Stochastic Model of Dengue: Analysing the Probability of Extinction and LLN

In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.