ABSTRACT: In recent years Zhouzhuang has been quite successful in developing a mass tourism industry. However, formal analyses of the past experiences of other provinces indicate that there are significant risks in th...ABSTRACT: In recent years Zhouzhuang has been quite successful in developing a mass tourism industry. However, formal analyses of the past experiences of other provinces indicate that there are significant risks in the tourism development policy followed in Zhouzhuang. Although the well preserved and reconstructed physical buildings have facilitated listing on the UNESCO World Heritage List, the traditional canal-town life style, the major attraction of Zhouzhuang, is giving way to commercialization. Quick and easy compensating measures have been adopted to create a staged image of an authentic traditional lifestyle. Precautions should be made now or Zhouzhuang runs the risk of becoming little more than a thematic park with no real cultural or social meaning for tourists or the inhabitants. A system dynamics model has been built for the purpose of developing an understanding of the complex structure of Zhouzhuang tourism development. The model consists of six sectors: physical environment, culture, infrastructure, job market, tourist, and financial resource allocation and promotion. Simulation of the model shows that the time delay, eroding target and the non-linearity are the key internal factors leading to a potential growth and decline tourism development pattern. Further simulations were conducted to examine the impacts of various policy options. The model suggests that the most effective policy for sustainable tourism development is a conservative one that controls and limits the numbers of tourists. It is expected that the model can provide a learning micro-world" which will facilitate understanding of the complexities of tourism development and serve as a guide to effective policy formulation.展开更多
文摘ABSTRACT: In recent years Zhouzhuang has been quite successful in developing a mass tourism industry. However, formal analyses of the past experiences of other provinces indicate that there are significant risks in the tourism development policy followed in Zhouzhuang. Although the well preserved and reconstructed physical buildings have facilitated listing on the UNESCO World Heritage List, the traditional canal-town life style, the major attraction of Zhouzhuang, is giving way to commercialization. Quick and easy compensating measures have been adopted to create a staged image of an authentic traditional lifestyle. Precautions should be made now or Zhouzhuang runs the risk of becoming little more than a thematic park with no real cultural or social meaning for tourists or the inhabitants. A system dynamics model has been built for the purpose of developing an understanding of the complex structure of Zhouzhuang tourism development. The model consists of six sectors: physical environment, culture, infrastructure, job market, tourist, and financial resource allocation and promotion. Simulation of the model shows that the time delay, eroding target and the non-linearity are the key internal factors leading to a potential growth and decline tourism development pattern. Further simulations were conducted to examine the impacts of various policy options. The model suggests that the most effective policy for sustainable tourism development is a conservative one that controls and limits the numbers of tourists. It is expected that the model can provide a learning micro-world" which will facilitate understanding of the complexities of tourism development and serve as a guide to effective policy formulation.
