Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.

Study of Factors Influencing China-ASEAN Agricultural Product Trade Development in the Context of"the Belt and Road"

This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance for promoting the in-depth development of the free trade area and has guiding significance for precise policy implementation.Based on the status of import and export trade of agricultural products in CAFTA from 2013 to 2017,it constructed a trade gravity model.With the aid of Stata 14.0 software,it explored major factors influencing the development of bilateral agricultural trade from the total amount of agricultural products import and export and Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification,Revision 3(SITC Rev.3)agricultural product classification data.The empirical regression results show that the GDP of ASEAN countries,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and the per capita gross national income(GNI)measured based on the purchasing power parity(PPP)exchange rate have the greatest impact on agricultural product trade in CAFTA in the context of"the Belt and Road"(B&D).Based on empirical research,it came up with recommendations including adjusting the import and export structure of agricultural products,enhancing product competitive advantages,and implementing diversified markets.

Trends and Features of China's Inter-Provincial Trade:1987-2007

With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.

Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the Jormer Silk Roaa regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990-2013. Our results suggest that China＇s former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China＇s economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.