Digital Trade Rules and the Position of Chinese Enterprises in the Global Value Chain

Digital trade rules and higher positions of enterprises in the global value chain(GVC)are both important topics in the context of high-quality economic development.This paper refers to the data of RTA digital trade rules concluded by China in the TAPED database in 2000-2014 and the matched data in the WIOD database,the China Customs Import and Export Database and the China Industrial Enterprise Database to investigate the effects of digital trade rules on Chinese enterprises as to their ascending GVC positions.It finds that signing the RTA digital trade rules can steadily and significantly promote the position ascendance;compared with the digitalization rules on trading objects,signing the digitalization rules on trade modes produces greater effects of driving up the positions,which are realized mainly via the three channels of advancing cross-border flow of R&D factors,promoting corporate digital transformation,and improving professional management.Digital trade rules that are horizontally broader and vertically deeper are in greater favor of Chinese enterprises for ascending in the global value chain,which is especially evident among those in digital industry and processing trade.During the negotiations of digital trade rules,it's imperative to pay close attention to the rules on e-commerce cooperation,awareness of e-commerce importance,intellectual property protection,attempts in big data-related trade in goods,and cross-border data flow,so as to secure the core interests of Chinese enterprises in gaining higher positions.This paper offers great policy implications as to how to sign digital trade rules by China in the future and how to select partners in greater support for Chinese enterprises to ascend to the middle and high end of the global value chain.

On China's Foreign Trade Development and Linkage with the Customary Rules of International Trade

Although great differences exist between the trade systems of different countries,internationaltrade must go on in line with the customary international trade rules.As China’s economy developsand the socialist market economic system emerges,China is basically qualified to link up withcustomary international trade rules.In the Ninth Five-Year Plan period,China’s reform of its foreigntrade system aims at setting up a trade system that conforms with international trade practice.Forthe purpose,the author of this article suggests that a neutral trade policy should be adopted inaccordance with the international practice since it does not hinder exports,nor restrict imports toan excessive degree.

欧洲经济安全战略:述评、影响与应对

欧洲经济安全战略是欧盟委员会最新推出的一项重大区域经济安全战略框架,它以寻求供应链和市场弹性为基本目标,以多边主义和规则主义为基本原则,以保持市场弹性与竞争力、加强国际合作和完善风险识别工具为基本内容。欧洲经济安全战略对中国经贸领域的法律影响不容忽视:中欧实现更高水平法治合作的政策基础明显加强;中国可能面临来自欧盟的新一轮规则危机;中国经贸领域的外部政策环境可能发生多重嬗变。中国的对策包括综合运用法律和政治手段应对可能来自欧盟的“经济安全陷阱”;完善中国经济安全保护工具,探寻构建中国经济安全战略;优化中国外部法律政策环境,提升中国供应链与外部市场弹性。此外,中国还需要充分借鉴欧盟的有益做法,着力提升相关产业的新质生产力建设,并在确保经济发展与科研安全的前提下扩大国际合作。

国际经贸规则下国有企业的补贴政策研究

近年来,国际投资规则呈现区域化、碎片化趋势,贸易便利化与保护主义并行。在此背景下,竞争中立原则备受国际关注。目前,在竞争中立的实践方面,澳大利亚、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、美国和欧盟各成一派,并面临重点规制对象不清、与国有企业相容性、竞争中立的适用性及例外等问题。针对竞争中立原则下的国有企业界定,澳大利亚、欧盟、美新自由贸易协定、跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定(CPTPP)和OECD等不同国家和组织都有不同的阐述和立场。目前,国际经贸规则下的国有企业补贴以WTO的SCM协定为基本规则,以CPTPP非商业支持规则为新代表,并受到美欧日联合声明的干扰和影响。

Can the Trading System Survive US-China Trade Friction？

Donald Trump has sought to change US trading relationships by raising protection at home and taxing the offshore activities of US companies abroad. These measures, which both use and violate trade rules, have provoked retaliation from other countries. Such friction has restricted and distorted trade and investment, undermined the rules-based trading system and perhaps permanently damaged global value chains that depend on stable rules for market access. Trump has justified some of his measures as a response to China＇s alleged unfair practices and indeed, China has adopted industrial and technology policies that are formally neutral between domestic and foreign firms but in practice have led foreign firms to complain about discriminatory practices that favor Chinese firms. The US friction with China is unfortunate because instead of trying to bully China into submission in a tariff war, the US could have dealt with many of its concerns more effectively by cooperating with other countries and taking actions that are consistent with maintaining the rules-based system. While the US has undermined its leadership role, the overall damage to the trading system could still be limited if other countries, especially China, take actions that sustain and strengthen it.

China and the Reform of International Trade Governance System

The 21st century has carried the international trade governance system into a period of accelerated reshaping.The reform has been fueled by many factors including the requirement of the in-depth development of global value chains for cross-border institutional coordination,the requirement of the form of digital economy for new digital rules,and the requirement of the dominant countries under the traditional international trade governance system for the maintenance of their own interests.The reform of international trade governance system has driven China to adjust itself to external pressures while creating opportunities for the country to deepen the reform and join international trade governance.China as a beneficiary and firm supporter of economic globalization has rapidly grown from a marginal participator in economic globalization into a builder and contributor of the governance of the international trading system.It plays an active part in the reform of international trading system and the construction of a community of shared future for mankind by means of the making of rules,the reshaping of rules,the adjustment of rules,and the adaptation to rules.In addition,the critical measures for China to cope with the changes of globalization also consist in its deepened domestic reform,proactive opening-up,facilitated alignment with domestic and international rules,and an institutional environment suitable for the new situation of a"dual circulation"development pattern.

ROBUST TRADING RULE SELECTION AND FORECASTING ACCURACY

Trading rules performing well on a given data set seldom lead to promising out-of-sample results, a problem which is a consequence of the in-sample data snooping bias. Efforts to justify the selection of trading rules by assessing the out-of-sample performance will not really remedy this predica- ment either, because they are prone to be trapped in what is known as the out-of-sample data-snooping bias. Our approach to curb the data-snooping bias consists of constructing a framework for trading rule selection using a-priori robustness strategies, where robustness is gauged on the basis of time- series bootstrap and multi-objective criteria. This approach focuses thus on building robustness into the process of trading rule selection at an early stage, rather than on an ex-post assessment of trading rule fitness. Intra-day FX market data constitute the empirical basis of the proposed investigations. Trading rules are selected from a wide universe created by evolutionary computation tools. The authors show evidence of the benefit of this approach in terms of indirect forecasting accuracy when investing in FX markets.