As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its developmen...As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.展开更多
Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with tim...Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with time and global growth. I find that countries with large, open banking sectors and trade deficits tend to transmit growth more strongly than other countries. Transmission effects seem to have become stronger over time and are stronger in periods of slow economic growth.展开更多
This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oi...This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers （here, Iran and Russia） benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.展开更多
High-level forum helps strengthen China-Arab trade and economic cooperation Trade deals were plentiful at the first China-Arab States Economic and Trade Forum last month, with over 190 deals on investment
The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling ...The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling trade surplus and its rising proportion to the GDP,many people conclude that China’s economy is seriously imbalanced.Li Yang,Director of the Institute of Finance and Banking,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,recently shared his views on the issue in an article in Wen Hui Bao,a Shanghai-based newspaper.展开更多
文摘As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.
文摘Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with time and global growth. I find that countries with large, open banking sectors and trade deficits tend to transmit growth more strongly than other countries. Transmission effects seem to have become stronger over time and are stronger in periods of slow economic growth.
文摘This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers （here, Iran and Russia） benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.
文摘High-level forum helps strengthen China-Arab trade and economic cooperation Trade deals were plentiful at the first China-Arab States Economic and Trade Forum last month, with over 190 deals on investment
文摘The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling trade surplus and its rising proportion to the GDP,many people conclude that China’s economy is seriously imbalanced.Li Yang,Director of the Institute of Finance and Banking,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,recently shared his views on the issue in an article in Wen Hui Bao,a Shanghai-based newspaper.
