WT-FCTGN:A wavelet-enhanced fully connected time-gated neural network for complex noisy traffic flow modeling

Accurate forecasting of traffic flow provides a powerful traffic decision-making basis for an intelligent transportation system. However, the traffic data's complexity and fluctuation, as well as the noise produced during collecting information and summarizing original data of traffic flow, cause large errors in the traffic flow forecasting results. This article suggests a solution to the above mentioned issues and proposes a fully connected time-gated neural network based on wavelet reconstruction(WT-FCTGN). To eliminate the potential noise and strengthen the potential traffic trend in the data, we adopt the methods of wavelet reconstruction and periodic data introduction to preprocess the data. The model introduces fully connected time-series blocks to model all the information including time sequence information and fluctuation information in the flow of traffic, and establishes the time gate block to comprehend the periodic characteristics of the flow of traffic and predict its flow. The performance of the WT-FCTGN model is validated on the public Pe MS data set. The experimental results show that the WT-FCTGN model has higher accuracy, and its mean absolute error(MAE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and root mean square error(RMSE) are obviously lower than those of the other algorithms. The robust experimental results prove that the WT-FCTGN model has good anti-noise ability.

Modelling vehicular interactions for heterogeneous traffic flow using cellular automata with position preference

This paper proposes and validates a modified cellular automata model for determining interaction rate （i.e. number of car-following/overtaking instances） using traffic flow data measured in the field. The proposed model considers lateral position preference by each vehicle type and introduces a position preference parameter fl in the model which facilitates gradual drifting towards preferred position on road, even if the gap in front is sufficient. Additionally, the model also improves upon the conven- tional model by calculating safe front and back gap dynamically based on speed and deceleration properties of leader and follower vehicles. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the effect of β on vehicular interac- tions and the model was calibrated and validated using interaction rates observed in the field. Paired tests were conducted to determine the determining interaction rates validity of the model in Results of the simulations show that there is a parabolic relationship between area occupancy and interaction rate of different vehicle types. The model performed satisfactorily as the simulated interaction rate between different vehicle types were found to be statistically similar to those observed in field. Also, as expected, the interaction rate between light motor vehicles （LMVs） and heavy motor vehicles （HMVs） were found to be higher than that between LMVs and three wheelers because LMVs and HMVs share the same lane. This could not be done using conventional CA models as lateral movement rules were dictated by only speeds and gaps. So, in conventional models, the vehicles would end up in positions which are not realistic. The position preference parameter introduced in this model motivates vehicles to stay in their preferred positions. This study demonstrates the use of interaction rate as a measure to validate micro- scopic traffic flow models.

Numerical Simulation of Diffusion Type Traffic Flow Model Using Second-Order Lax-Wendroff Scheme Based on Exponential Velocity Density Function

In order to control traffic congestion, many mathematical models have been used for several decades. In this paper, we study diffusion-type traffic flow model based on exponential velocity density relation, which provides a non-linear second-order parabolic partial differential equation. The analytical solution of the diffusion-type traffic flow model is very complicated to approximate the initial density of the Cauchy problem as a function of x from given data and it may cause a huge error. For the complexity of the analytical solution, the numerical solution is performed by implementing an explicit upwind, explicitly centered, and second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme for the numerical solution. From the comparison of relative error among these three schemes, it is observed that Lax-Wendroff scheme gives less error than the explicit upwind and explicit centered difference scheme. The numerical, analytical analysis and comparative result discussion bring out the fact that the Lax-Wendroff scheme with exponential velocity-density relation of diffusion type traffic flow model is suitable for the congested area and shows a better fit in traffic-congested regions.

Design and analysis of traffic incident detection based on random forest

In order to avoid the noise and over fitting and further improve the limited classification performance of the real decision tree, a traffic incident detection method based on the random forest algorithm is presented. From the perspective of classification strength and correlation, three experiments are performed to investigate the potential application of random forest to traffic incident detection： comparison with a different number of decision trees; comparison with different decision trees; comparison with the neural network. The real traffic data of the 1-880 database is used in the experiments. The detection performance is evaluated by the common criteria including the detection rate, the false alarm rate, the mean time to detection, the classification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic （ROC）. The experimental results indicate that the model based on random forest can improve the decision rate, reduce the testing time, and obtain a higher classification rate. Meanwhile, it is competitive compared with multi-layer feed forward neural networks （MLF）.

MULTI-CLASS TRAFFIC QOS ROUTING FOR LEO SATELLITE NETWORKS

Due to the diversified demands of quality of service（QoS） in volume multimedia application, QoS routings for multiservice are becoming a research hotspot in low earth orbit（LEO） satellite networks. A novel QoS satellite routing algorithm for multi-class traffic is proposed. The goal of the routing algorithm is to provide the distinct QoS for different traffic classes and improve the utilization of network resources. Traffic is classified into three classes and allocated priorities based on their QoS requirements, respectively. A priority queuing mechanism guarantees the algorithm to work better for high-priority classes. In order to control the congestion, a blocking probability analysis model is built up based on the Markov process theory. Finally, according to the classification link-cost metrics, routings for different classes are calculated with the distinct QoS requirments and the status of network resource. Simulations verify the performance of the routing algorithm at different time and in different regions, and results demonstrate that the algorithm has great advantages in terms of the average delay and the blocking probability. Meanwhile, the robustness issue is also discussed.

A genetic resampling particle filter for freeway traffic-state estimation

On-line estimation of the state of traffic based on data sampled by electronic detectors is important for intelligent traffic management and control. Because a nonlinear feature exists in the traffic state, and because particle filters have good characteristics when it comes to solving the nonlinear problem, a genetic resampling particle filter is proposed to estimate the state of freeway traffic. In this paper, a freeway section of the northern third ring road in the city of Beijing in China is considered as the experimental object. By analysing the traffic-state characteristics of the freeway, the traffic is modeled based on the second-order validated macroscopic traffic flow model. In order to solve the particle degeneration issue in the performance of the particle filter, a genetic mechanism is introduced into the resampling process. The realization of a genetic particle filter for freeway traffic-state estimation is discussed in detail, and the filter estimation performance is validated and evaluated by the achieved experimental data.

Cellular automata model for traffic flow with safe driving conditions

In this paper, a recently introduced cellular automata （CA） model is used for a statistical analysis of the inner micro-scopic structure of synchronized traffic flow. The analysis focuses on the formation and dissolution of clusters or platoons of vehicles, as the mechanism that causes the presence of this synchronized traffic state with a high flow. This platoon formation is one of the most interesting phenomena observed in traffic flows and plays an important role both in manual and automated highway systems （AHS）. Simulation results, obtained from a single-lane system under periodic boundary conditions indicate that in the density region where the synchronized state is observed, most vehicles travel together in pla- toons with approximately the same speed and small spatial distances. The examination of velocity variations and individual vehicle gaps shows that the flow corresponding to the synchronized state is stable, safe and highly correlated. Moreover, results indicate that the observed platoon formation in real traffic is reproduced in simulations by the relation between vehicle headway and velocity that is embedded in the dynamics definition of the CA model.

An Intrusion Alarming System Based on Self-Similarity of Network Traffic

Intrusion detection system ean make effective alarm for illegality of networkusers, which is absolutely necessarily and important to build security environment of communicationbase service According to the principle that the number of network traffic can affect the degree ofself-similar traffic, the paper investigates the variety of self-similarity resulted fromunconventional network traffic. A network traffic model based on normal behaviors of user isproposed and the Hursl parameter of this model can be calculated. By comparing the Hurst parameterof normal traffic and the self-similar parameter, we ean judge whether the network is normal or notand alarm in time.

A new traffic model with the consideration of coupling effect with two lanes

This paper introduces a new two-lane high-order continuum model by embedding the two delay time scales con- tinuum traffic model presented by Xue （2003 Phys. Rev. E 68 066123） into the multi-lane model proposed by Daganzo （1997 Transpn. Res. B 31 83） with the consideration of the coupling effect between the vehicles of two lanes in instantaneous traffic situation and lane-change effect. In the novel model, the coupling effect of two lanes and phenomena of lane change, which were not discussed in Daganzo＇s model and Xue＇s model, are taken into account. Numerical simulation shows that it is in accordance with real traffic flow. This obviously indicates that the new phenomenon and behaviour are analogous results as single lane presented by Xue, and the proposed model is more reasonable on two lanes. Furthermore, the generation rate between two lanes is also investigated. The results show that the formation and diffusion of traffic shock wave can be better simulated on two lanes.

A New Macro Model for Traffic Flow on a Highway with Ramps and Numerical Tests

In this paper, we present a new macro model for traffic flow on a highway with ramps based on the existing models. We use the new model to study the effects of on-off-ramp on the main road traffic during the morning rush period and the evening rush period. Numerical tests show that, during the two rush periods, these effects are often different and related to the status of the main road traffic. If the main road traffic flow is uniform, then ramps always produce stop-and-go traffic when the main road density is between two critical values, and ramps have little effect on the main road traffic when the main road density is less than the smaller critical value or greater than the larger critical value. If a small perturbation appears on the main road, ramp may lead to stop-and-go traffic, or relieve or even eliminate the stop-and-go traffic, under different circumstances. These results are consistent with real traffic, which shows that the new model is reasonable.

A new traffic model on compulsive lane-changing caused by off-ramp

In the field of traffic flow studies, compulsive lane-changing refers to lane-changing （LC） behaviors due to traffic rules or bad road conditions, while free LC happens when drivers change lanes to drive on a faster or less crowded lane. LC studies based on differential equation models accurately reveal LC influence on traffic environment. This paper presents a second-order partial differential equation （PDE） model that simulates both compulsive LC behavior and free LC behavior, with lane-changing source terms in the continuity equation and a lane-changing viscosity term in the momentum equation. A specific form of this model focusing on a typical compulsive LC behavior, the ＇off-ramp problem＇, is derived. Numerical simulations are given in several cases, which are consistent with real traffic phenomenon.

NOVEL MULTIMEDIA TRAFFIC MODELING BASED CAC SCHEME FOR CDMA COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

As the radio spectrum is a very scarce resource,the Call Admission Control (CAC) is one of the most important parts in radio resource management. The Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) based next generation wireless communications systems will support the transmission of multimedia traffic,such as voice,video and data,thus the CAC,which can support the multimedia traffic and guarantee the Quality of Service (QoS) of different traffic,has gained broad attention. In this paper,a novel multimedia traffic modeling method and a corresponding dynamic QoS based CAC are proposed. The analysis and simulation results show that the proposed CAC scheme can guarantee the QoS to different traffic demand,and improve the system performance significantly.

Continuum modeling for two-lane traffic flow with consideration of the traffic interruption probability

Considering the effects that the probability of traffic interruption and the friction between two lanes have on the car-following behaviour, this paper establishes a new two-lane microscopic car-following model. Based on this microscopic model, a new macroscopic model was deduced by the relevance relation of microscopic and macroscopic scale parameters for the two-lane traffic flow. Terms related to lane change are added into the continuity equations and velocity dynamic equations to investigate the lane change rate. Numerical results verify that the proposed model can be efficiently used to reflect the effect of the probability of traffic interruption on the shock, rarefaction wave and lane change behaviour on two-lane freeways. The model has also been applied in reproducing some complex traffic phenomena caused by traffic accident interruption.

Probabilistic Top-k Query:Model and Application on Web Traffic Analysis

Top-k ranking of websites according to traffic volume is important for Internet Service Providers(ISPs) to understand network status and optimize network resources. However, the ranking result always has a big deviation with actual rank for the existence of unknown web traffic, which cannot be identified accurately under current techniques. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to approximate the actual rank. This method associates unknown web traffic with websites according to statistical probabilities. Then, we construct a probabilistic top-k query model to rank websites. We conduct several experiments by using real HTTP traffic traces collected from a commercial ISP covering an entire city in northern China. Experimental results show that the proposed techniques can reduce the deviation existing between the ground truth and the ranking results vastly. In addition, we find that the websites providing video service have higher ratio of unknown IP as well as higher ratio of unknown traffic than the websites providing text web page service. Specifically, we find that the top-3 video websites have more than 90% of unknown web traffic. All these findings are helpful for ISPs understanding network status and deploying Content Distributed Network(CDN).

Variable bit rate video traffic modeling by multiplicative multifractal model

Multiplicative multifractal process could well modal video traffic. The multiplier distributions in the multiplicatire multifractal model for video traffic are investigated and it is found that Gaussian is not suitable for describing the multipliers on the small time scales. A new statistical distribution-symmetric Pareto distribution is introduced. It is applied instead of Gaussian for the multipliers on those scales. Based on that, the algorithm is updated so that symmetric pareto distribution and Gaussian distribution are used to model video traffic but on different time scales. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm could model video traffic more accurately.

A new traffic model with a lane-changing viscosity term

In this paper, a new continuum traffic flow model is proposed, with a lane-changing source term in the continuity equation and a lane-changing viscosity term in the acceleration equation. Based on previous literature, the source term addresses the impact of speed difference and density difference between adjacent lanes, which provides better precision for free lane-changing simulation; the viscosity term turns lane-changing behavior to a ＂force＂ that may influence speed distribution. Using a flux-splitting scheme for the model discretization, two cases are investigated numerically. The case under a homogeneous initial condition shows that the numerical results by our model agree well with the analytical ones; the case with a small initial disturbance shows that our model can simulate the evolution of perturbation, including propagation,dissipation, cluster effect and stop-and-go phenomenon.

Robust identification for multi_section freeway traffic models

Since it is difficult to fit measured parameters using the conventional traffic model, a new traffic density and average speed model is introduced in this paper. To determine traffic model structures accurately, a model identification method for uncertain nonlinear system is developed. To simplify uncertain nonlinear problem, this paper presents a new robust criterion to identify the multi-section traffic model structure of freeway efficiently. In the new model identification criterion, numerically efficient U-D factofization is used to avoid computing the determinant values of two complex matrices. By estimating the values of U-D factor of data matrix, both the upper and lower bounds of system uncertainties are described. Thus a model structure identification algorithm is proposed. Comparisons between identification outputs and simulation outputs of traffic states show that the traffic states can be accurately predicted by means of the new traffic models and the structure identification criterion.

Solitary wave solution to Aw-Rascle viscous model of traffic flow

A traveling wave solution to the Aw-Rascle traffic flow model that includes the relaxation and diffusion terms is investigated. The model can be approximated by the well-known Kortweg-de Vries （KdV） equation. A numerical simulation is conducted by the first-order accurate Lax-Friedrichs scheme, which is known for its ability to capture the entropy solution to hyperbolic conservation laws. Periodic boundary conditions are applied to simulate a lengthy propagation, where the profile of the derived KdV solution is taken as the initial condition to observe the change of the profile. The simulation shows good agreement between the approximated KdV solution and the numerical solution.

Travel modal choice analysis for traffic corridors based on decision-theoretic approaches

The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.

DYNAMIC RESOURCE ALLOCATION SCHEME UNDER TRAFFIC CONDITION IN SATELLITE SYSTEMS

As the traffic distribution in China mainland is far from uniform, a new traffic model in China mainland is presented on the basis of per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and density of population. Based on this characteristic traffic model, a new Traffic Dependent Dynamic Channel Allocation and Reservation (TDDCAR) technique is proposed, the simulation model is built, and the strategies' performance is evaluated through computer simulation. The simulation results show that, compared to the conventional Fixed Channel Allocation (FCA), TDDCAR estimates the traffic conditions in every spot beam and frequently adjusts the traffic according to current traffic conditions. It has achieved a significant improvement in new call blocking probability, handover blocking probability, and fair index, particularly, in heavy traffic conditions. The building of traffic model in China mainland and the analysis of the simulation results has been a key foundation for the study of resource allocation schemes in the future.