Price Transmission in China's Swine Industry with an Application of MCM

The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.

Vertical Price Transmission in the China's Layer Industry Chain:an Application of FDL Approach

This paper examines the vertical price relationship between upstream and downstream products in China＇s layer industry chain by estimating elasticity coefficients of the price transmission. We use cointegration tests, error correction models and finite distributed lag models to analyze vertical price shifts between corn, layer feed, egg-laying chicken and egg prices. With monthly data from 1994 to 2010, our results show that various prices in China＇s layer industry chain are well integrated. In addition, our results indicate that both long-run and short-run price relationships between upstream and downstream products in layer industry chain exist and the long-run equilibrium, to a certain extent, may eliminate the short-run dynamics price deviation. We also found that the influence of corn and feed prices on egg prices is still more remarkable than egg-laying chicken prices. Our findings imply that governments should pay more attention to corn and layer feed prices in order to stabilize egg prices under the conditions of market integration.

Industrial transmission effect of international metal price shocks in perspective of industry chain

Based on a new perspective of industry chain and selecting monthly data from February2006to December2015,this paper chooses eight Chinese industrial sectors to construct a SVAR model reflecting internal relationships among metal chains,analyzes the direct effects and indirect effects of international metal prices on output of various links in metal chains,then it investigates the main transmission path of international metal price shocks through decomposing the inflation pressure sources in metal chains.The results show that international metal price shocks not only affect industrial output in a direct way,but also indirectly affect the growth of output through the increased pressure on industrial inflation and then triggering a tightening of monetary policy implementation.Affected by factors such as the lack of market demand and the price transmission mechanism blocking,the direct effects of international metal price shocks mainly impact the upstream and midstream industry,while the downstream industry is mainly affected by indirect effects;in addition,the international metal price shocks have spillover effects on the industrial inflation,and transmit along the industry chain from upstream to downstream,and their strength weakens in sequence.

Significance/ Principle and Aim of Transmission Pricing

This paper briefly describes the importance of transmission pricing, and different methods for recovering transmission cost, stimulating efficient use of transmission resources and attracting investment in transmission networks.

Overview of Studies on Vertical Price Transmission of Agro-products

Research on price transmission in vertically markets models the various price data, production index, consumer index and expectations index to proof market integration relations and estimate price transmission cycles, as well as to find out its function mechanism. Thanks to the development of market integration theory, research in this field explored well-rounded metric models. And the main research results are very closely to. To build up systematic models to input more variables based on demand and supply function, and remove the assumption of constant returns to scale of enterprises involving marketing and fully competitive market would be the development direction in this field. In this way, models draw close to the truth of economic operations.

Research on the Longitudinal Transmission Mechanism of Prices for Urban Vegetable Supply Chain-Based on the Empirical Research in Chongqing

This paper mainly introduces the longitudinal transmission mechanism of urban vegetable prices in Chongqing area. On the basis of the supply chain theory,the " farm price- wholesale price- retail price" of vegetables in Chongqing has been identified as the research object. Through statistical analysis,it is found that the above three types of price show a modest annual fluctuation of 7- 12% from 2008 to2013. Later,the paper focuses on the empirical research on the weekly price data in 2013 applying the co-integration theory,which reveals that the farm price of vegetables is largely influenced by themselves; the wholesale price of vegetables is mainly affected by their own price,the production price and the retail price of the earlier stage without the current influence of the production price; and the retail price of vegetables is also affected by their own price,but is not affected by the their current local price and the wholesale price. Vegetable prices have shown an obvious positive transmission mechanism in the links from production to retail,but the feedback effect of retail on production is not brought into play.

Asymmetric Price Transmission Analysis of the International Soybean Market

This study analyzed the asymmetric price transmission in the international soybean market, using data from the US (Chicago Futures), European (Rotterdam), Brazilian (Paranaguá), Argentinian (Rosario Futures and Rosario Spot), and Chinese (Spot and Futures) markets. The study looked at the price transmission between these markets over a period of almost 10 years, from September 2009 to May 2019. The Phillips-Perron unit root test was used to determine the order of integration of the time series. The Engle-Granger cointegration test failed to find any evidence of cointegration between the Chinese and Argentinian markets with any others of the international markets. The lack of cointegration was associated with highly government intervened markets. The cointegration and threshold test proposed by Enders and Siklos, succeeded in rejecting the Null hypothesis and finding cointegration among the series after structural breaks had been taken into account. The BDS test for nonlinearity showed that most of the time series were nonlinear, which prompted the investigation to look into nonlinear modelling. To evaluate asymmetric price transmission, the study used the Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and the momentum threshold model (MTAR). The Argentine and Chinese markets were primarily suspected of exhibiting asymmetric price transmission due to structural government intervention. However, the test results failed to reject the null hypothesis and revealed asymmetric price transmission between these markets and the international market. As expected, the results found no evidence of asymmetric price transmission in the Paranaguá, Rotterdam, and Chicago markets. Hence, it can be concluded that symmetric price transmission is more prevalent in the global soybean market than asymmetric price transmission.

Pricing Mechanism of China’s Trans-regional and Trans-provincial Electricity Trading

With the large-scale development of Chinese electric power, the contradiction of China’s energy supply and demand that reverse distributed is very prominent, therefore, promoting electricity trading is one of the important measures to get optimized configuration of energy resources in nationwide. For the two kinds of trading method, the “power point to the grid” trading and the “grid to grid” trading, this paper designed pricing mechanism model, and took one area as an example, we analyzed the impact of the participants by using different pricing mechanism, and put forward reasonable policy proposals for China’s pricing mechanism of trans-regional and trans-provincial electricity trading.

International Price Shocks Transmission： The Case of Rice in Togo

The objective of the paper was to examine the relationship between the world rice price and the rice price in Togo using the linear and nonlinear co-integration tests. The author used the monthly prices for Togo local rice market and international market. The results show that the rice prices on the local market are integrated to international market. The elasticity of the long-term transmission is high. The threshold autoregression （TAR） model reveals an asymmetric transmission with a magnitude that varies depending on the nature of shock. Price increases in international markets are transmitted more rapidly to the local markets than price reductions. These results might be explained by the market power of traders, transport costs and government intervention.

Asymmetric Price Transmission and Structural Breaks in the Relationship between Costa Rican Markets of Livestock Cattle, Beef and Milk

The vertical price transmission is generally considered as the relationship between two markets of the same production chain However, we can expand this concept to another relation which has not been deeply investigated： the joint products. They are the products which are produced in a single production process, but not correspond to the same chain. An especial case is the beef and milk markets in Costa Rica. Even if these products usually correspond to disconnect chains, in Costa Rica farms make use of cattle to produce both meat and milk. The cointegration framework is applied in order to indentify the price transmission among these markets. In addition, the asymmetric behavior and structural breaks are taken into account. Price transmission between each market pair was found. First, the cattle prices adjust in the milk-cattle relationship, second, beef meat prices adjust in the cattle-beef meat and in the milk - beef meat relationship. Finally, the equations allowing for structural breaks affect the estimates in the following three ways： after the break the elasticities became higher than 1, there is more evidence of cointegration, and the adjustment coefficients are significant only when a change in the long run is allowed.

The Research about the Trans-provincial Centralized Bidding Trading Market of East China Power Grid --I:Empirical Analysis

The clearing price and bidding price in electricity market are two key indicators to measure whether it is reasonable or not. Based on the grey incidence analysis, this paper studies the correlation coefficient between the clearing price and bidding price with the generation cost, the supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members over the same period, which is based on the actual data of the trans-provincial centralized trading market of East China Power Grid. The results show that the factors affecting the clearing price and bidding price from largest to smallest are generation cost, supervision and rules of the market, the supply and demand situation, the behavior of market members. The conclusion is that the trans-provincial trading platform of East China Power Grid is a reasonable regional market which can discover the market cost, and regulate the market supply and demand balance, and promote healthy competition.

Assessment of Initial Investment Valuation Methodology of Brazilian Power Transmissions Auction

This paper aims to assess the Initial Investment Valuation Methodology of the local regulator, facing the results of auctions, due to the high occurrence of low clearing prices observed from 2003 to 2008 and the high percentage of auctions without any bidder recently. The regulator investment forecasted defines the maximum value of Yearly Allowed Revenue and the bidder that offers the lowest YAR value wins the auction. The first type of analysis considers project cost, location, execution deadline, transmission line extension and type of all actions from 1999 to 2015, totalling about 3.361 billion USD. It was not found any correlation of those variables and the result of the actions. The second analysis compared the equipment and the additional costs breakdown of the regulator investment forecast with the real investment in projects from 2009 to 2013 and it rarely surpasses 5%. Suggestions are proposed based on the analysis.

African swine fever and meat prices fluctuation:An empirical study in China based on TVP-VAR model

African swine fever(ASF),a fatal disease outbroken in China in August 2018,has widely attracted social concern especially in the information era.The occurrence of ASF led to an imbalance between supply and demand in pork and other meat markets.As a result,meat prices fluctuated greatly during the past year in 2019.To measure ASF quantitatively,the internet public concern index about ASF was created using web crawler methods.The relationships between ASF and meat prices were analyzed based on time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive(TVP-VAR)model.The results showed that there were some differences in the impact size,direction and duration of ASF on the prices of pork,chicken,beef and mutton,and the characteristics of time variability and heterogeneity were obvious.At the same time,the impact of ASF on meat prices is not consistent with the trend and degree of ASF.The impulse intensity is strongly correlated with the strength and duration of ASF,and it is generally weak in the early stage and much stronger in the middle and late periods.The results indicate that macro regulations,monitoring and early-warning system,standardizing production and circulation,and the public opinion monitoring and guidance about ASF should be given more attention in future to stabilize the market expectations and to promote a smooth functioning of the livestock markets.

Pricing Mechanism in Power Market Construction

The reform on electricity pricing mechanism is a critical problem in power market construction in China, and is in mutual supplementation and promotion with the latter. In particular, the pricing mechanism for electricity fed into network and that for electricity transmission and distribution as well as the relationship between coal and electricity prices, etc. have to be studied in depth. This paper presents several solutions and suggestions to these problems.

Electricity Pricing Policy Should Serve Macro-Economic Control

The National Development and Reform Commission beefed up its efforts to promote the work of electricity price reform in 2004. It took measures in aspects of easing price contradictions, tentatively implementing discriminated price and time-of-use price and issuing a policy on the linkage of coal and electricity prices and price administration. In 2005 the basic thinking of the Commission's electricity price reform is to actively advance the pilot work of price reform,carry out the reform of transmission and distribution price, enlarge the scope of pilot work of large consumer's direct purchase, simplify sales price structure and bring about the linkage of coal and electricity prices.

A New Round of Reform in Electricity Pricing System in China

The State Council issued the Scheme for Reforming Electricity Pricing System m the second half of year 2003. It touches upon separating price of plant from that of network, sales price to network, transmission and distribution price, sales price and system principles in regard to electricity tariff mainly.

Transmission pricing and recovery of investment costs in the deregulated power system based on optimal circuit prices

Transmission pricing has become a major issue in the discussions about the deregulated electricity markets. Consequently, open access to the transmission system is one of the basic topics to allow competition among participants in the energy market. Transmission costs have an important impact on relative competition among participants in the energy market as well as on short- and long-term economic efficiencies of the whole electricity industry, although they represent only close to 10% of the energy market price. This paper deals with the design and tests of a transmission pricing method based on the optimal circuit prices derived from the economically adapted network （EAN）. Prices derived from the EAN have the advantage of being in tune with the maximum revenue allowed to the owner of transmission assets and simplifying the optimal allocation of transmission costs among participants. Beginning from the conceptual design, the proposed method is tested on a three-bus network and on the IEEE 24-bus reliability test system.

Price Analyses of the Brazilian Citrus Supply Chain

The Brazilian citrus chain is comprised by an upstream farm sector, made up of numerous heterogeneous （by size and technology） farm units serviced by input suppliers, and a downstream segment consisting of a small number of processing industries. Our study examines the behavior of citrus pricing along this supply chain, focusing on the relationship between orange juice prices established in international markets and orange fruit prices paid to Brazilian farmers. Results indicate that the price of orange fruit is fundamentally linked to the price of its juice, regardless of data source considered for testing. Evidence was found indicating that there is asymmetry of price transmission within the Brazilian orange sector, with juice price increases being transmitted to the farmer in smaller proportions than juice price decreases. The results of our study did not give a particularly strong indication of the cause of this price asymmetry.

中国煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格的传导路径研究

碳市场作为新兴市场易受能源价格因素干扰,在“双碳”目标下研究煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格(以下简称为碳价)的传导路径,有利于碳市场的健康运行并助力其发挥减排作用。在梳理煤炭价格与碳价传导机理的基础上,利用DCC-GARCH模型揭示煤炭指数与碳价的动态关系,并运用VAR模型实证检验煤炭价格与碳价的传导路径及能源消费结构、能源效率与动态相关系数的因果关系。实证结果表明:煤炭价格与碳价存在显著动态相关性,并呈现复杂性和多变性;碳市场尚未充分发挥其创新激励效应,相较于能源利用效率,煤炭价格与碳价通过能源消费结构路径实现的传导更加显著;能源消费结构调整是动态相关系数变化的格兰杰原因,而能源利用效率改变则不是。

电力市场化改革与全国统一碳市场建设关联协调发展的研究探索——基于交叉补贴和价格传导的双重视角

“电—碳”市场协同发展在推动能源清洁发展、应对气候治理方面具有重要作用,然而当前我国电力市场和碳市场运行相对独立,二者发展协调性亟待提高。鉴于此,基于交叉补贴和价格传导的双重视角,对电力市场中不同类型用户间的电价交叉补贴、电碳市场关联的价格传导效应以及碳市场的价格设计进行细致探讨具有重要理论意义,并且通过探讨设计电碳市场关联协调发展机制如何推动实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要现实意义。具体来讲,电力市场化改革与全国统一碳市场建设关联协调发展可以从三个方面进行研究:第一,基于交叉补贴视角,明晰交叉补贴如何引致能源效率损失并降低社会福利;第二,围绕电力市场化改革和“双碳”目标,探讨电力市场价格扭曲导致的无谓损失如何影响碳排放,进而通过电力价格机制优化实现碳约束目标;第三,聚焦价格传导,在评估电力市场效率基础上考察电碳关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,对不同场景下碳市场的碳价进行优化设计。深入探讨上述三方面问题将对驱动电力市场和碳市场协同发展,统筹推进碳达峰、碳中和具有重要的理论和现实意义。