Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and...Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time.Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020,we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions.We found that if these interventions had not been deployed,the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold(interquartile range 79–116)increase,as of May 31,2020.However,their effectiveness depended upon the timing,duration,and intensity of the interventions,with variations in case severity seen across populations,regions,and seasons.Additionally,before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved,our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.展开更多
This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19)spread worldwide through a spatial–temporal model with network dynamics.By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547166 flights with a ...This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19)spread worldwide through a spatial–temporal model with network dynamics.By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547166 flights with a total capacity of 101455913 passengers from January 22 to April 24,2020,we analyze the epidemic correlations across 22 countries in six continents and particularly the changes in such correlations before and after implementing the international travel restriction policies targeting different countries.Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high infection rates.Instead,they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to impose the international movement restriction.The study further highlights potential correlations between international human mobility and focal countries’epidemic situations in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic.展开更多
文摘Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time.Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020,we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions.We found that if these interventions had not been deployed,the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold(interquartile range 79–116)increase,as of May 31,2020.However,their effectiveness depended upon the timing,duration,and intensity of the interventions,with variations in case severity seen across populations,regions,and seasons.Additionally,before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved,our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.91846302,71720107003,and 71973107).
文摘This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19)spread worldwide through a spatial–temporal model with network dynamics.By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547166 flights with a total capacity of 101455913 passengers from January 22 to April 24,2020,we analyze the epidemic correlations across 22 countries in six continents and particularly the changes in such correlations before and after implementing the international travel restriction policies targeting different countries.Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high infection rates.Instead,they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to impose the international movement restriction.The study further highlights potential correlations between international human mobility and focal countries’epidemic situations in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic.
