A Trend towards a Stable Warm and Windless State of the Surface Weather Conditions in Northern and Northeastern China during 1961–2014

This study investigates the trends in the mean state and the day-to-day variability （DDV） of the surface weather conditions over northern and northeastern China （NNEC） during 1961-2014 using CN05.1 observational data. In this study, we show that the surface temperature （wind speed） has increased （decreased） over NNEC and that the DDV of the surface temperatures and wind speeds has decreased, indicating a trend towards a stable warm and windless state of the surface weather conditions over NNEC. This finding implies a trend towards more persistent hot and windless episodes, which threaten human health and aggravate environmental problems. The trends are also examined in reanalysis data. Both the ERA-40 and the NCEP data show an increasing （decreasing） trend in the mean state of the surface temperatures （wind speeds）. However, the reanalysis data show a consistent decreasing trend in the DDV of the surface weather conditions only in the spring. The underlying reason for the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions is further analyzed, focusing on the spring season. Essentially, the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions can be attributed to a decrease in synoptic-scale wave activity, which is caused by a decrease in the baroclinic instability. There is a contrasting change in the baroclinic instability over East Asia, showing a decreasing （increasing） trend north （south） of 40°N. This contrasting change in the baroclinic instability is primarily caused by a tropospheric cooling zone over East Asia at approximately 40°N, which influences the meridional temperature gradient over East Asia.

Spatial trends of dustfall over northern China in the spring and their influencing factors

The spatial trends of dustfall of different sizes over northern China during April and May 2001,and March 2002,and their influencing factors,were analyzed.We divided the dustfall into seven grades based on particle size.Total dustfall and dustfall for each grade were highest in desert regions then in regions undergoing desertification,and the total dustfall,dustfall 【100 μm and dustfall 】250 μm were higher in western agricultural regions closer to desert areas than in eastern agricultural regions.The spatial trends in dustfall 【300 μm in diameter were most strongly correlated with dust events,and the content of coarse particles increased with increasing severity of dust events.Because the spatial trend for dust events appears to be controlled by geomorphic conditions,vegetation coverage,soil moisture,and the distance from dust source,dustfall 【300 μm in diameter appears to have the same controlling factors as dust events,but the control decreases with increasing particle size.Wind,the driving force for dust emissions,also influenced the spatial trends in dustfall 【200 μm in diameter,and especially for dustfall 50 to 100 μm in diameter.Although dustfall 【300 μm in diameter and precipitation were not strongly spatially correlated,there is some evidence that high precipitation decreased deposition by restraining blowing sand.The coarser the dustfall,the weaker the correlation with wind speed;however,transport of larger particles still occurs,and further research will be required to test the possibility that this dust is entrained mainly by the small-scale dust devils that are commonly observed in the study area.

Variations of the thermal growing season during the period 1961–2015 in northern China

Researching into changes in thermal growing season has been one of the most important scientific issues in studies of the impact of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. However, few studies investigated the differences under various definitions of thermal growing season and compared the trends of thermal growing season in different parts of China. Based on the daily mean air temperatures collected from 877 meteorological stations over northern China from 1961 to 2015, we investigated the variations of the thermal growing season parameters including the onset, ending and duration of the growing season using the methods of differential analysis, trend analysis, comparative analysis, and Kriging interpolation technique. Results indicate that the differences of the maximum values of those indices for the thermal growing season were significant, while they were insignificant for the mean values. For indices with the same length of the spells exceeding 5°C, frost criterion had a significant effect on the differences of the maximum values. The differences of the mean values between frost and non-frost indices were also slight, even smaller than those from the different lengths of the spells. Temporally, the starting date of the thermal growing season advanced by 10.0–11.0 days, while the ending dates delayed by 5.0–6.0 days during the period 1961–2015. Consequently, the duration of the thermal growing season was prolonged 15.0–16.0 days. Spatially, the advanced onset of the thermal growing season occurred in the southwestern, eastern, and northeastern parts of northern China, whereas the delayed ending of the thermal growing season appeared in the western part, and the length of the thermal growing season was prolonged significantly in the vast majority of northern China. The trend values of the thermal growing season were affected by altitude. The magnitude of the earlier onset of the thermal growing season decreased, and that of the later ending increased rapidly as the altitude increased, causing the magnitude of the prolonged growing season increased correspondingly. Comparing the applicability of selected indices and considering the impacts of frost on the definitions are important and necessary for determining the timing and length of the thermal growing season in northern China.

Variation of drought over northern China during 1950-2000

Based on China's monthly precipitation data of 629 stations during 1950-2000, we calculated Z indices and separated them into seven Dryness and Wetness grades. Further, a drought area index was proposed to study changes in drought severity in northern China. The results revealed that the different severity of droughts all showed expanding trends in northern China's main agricultural area. Moreover, the area coverage of droughts in different seasons and different regions displayed different trends.

Changes in wind activity from 1957 to 2011 and their possible influence on aeolian desertification in northern China

Wind activity is proved to have significant impacts on aeolian desertification. Clarifying the fluctuations and change trend of wind velocity is important for understanding their influence on aeolian desertification. In this study, we used a dataset of wind velocities collected from 93 meteorological stations across northern China from 1957 to 2011 to analyze the changes in wind activity during this period. We tested the monotonic and step（abrupt） trends for annual and seasonal data of mean wind velocity by using Mann-Kendall and Mann-Whitney tests, respectively. The results indicated that the annual mean wind velocity decreased by 0.83 m/s from 1957 to 2011. The decreasing trends were also significant（P〈0.01） for each season. The magnitude of the decrease was smallest in the east of northern China and largest in the west of northern China, and the most remarkable decrease occurred in the northwest of northern China. Abrupt decreases in annual and seasonal mean wind velocities occurred in the mid-1980 s, which was consistent with the changes in aeolian desertification since the mid-1980 s in northern China. As revealed by our study, although both modern aeolian desertification and ecosystem rehabilitation are affected by human activities to some extent, they are also likely to be strongly controlled by climate change, especially by wind activity.

Effect of Mathematical Expression of Vegetation Indices on the Estimation of Phenology Trends from Satellite Data

Vegetation indices(VIs) from satellite remote sensing have been extensively applied to analyze the trends of vegetation phenology. In this paper, the NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) and SR(simple ration), which are calculated from the same spectral bands of MODIS data with different mathematical expressions, were used to extract the start date(SOS) and end date(EOS) of the growing season in northern China and Mongolia from 2000 to 2015. The results show that different vegetation indices would lead to differences in vegetation phenology especially in their trends. The mean SOS from NDVI is 15.5 d earlier than that from SR, and the mean EOS from NDVI is 13.4 d later than that from SR. It should be noted that 16.3% of SOS and 17.2% of EOS derived from NDVI and SR exhibit opposite trends. The phenology dates and trends from NDVI are also inconsistent with those of SR among various vegetation types. These differences based on different mathematical expressions in NDVI and SR result from different resistances to noise and sensitivities to spectral signal at different stage of growing season. NDVI is prone to be effected more by low noise and is less sensitive to dense vegetation. While SR is affected more by high noise and is less sensitive to sparse vegetation. Therefore, vegetation indices are one of the uncertainty sources of remote sensing-based phenology, and appropriate indices should be used to detect vegetation phenology for different growth stages and estimate phenology trends.

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China,the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear.Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change.In this study,we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model(iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata.Then,we designed three drying trend scenarios(reversed drying trend,gradual drying trend,and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China.Finally,the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared.An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system.The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m3 among different drying trend scenarios,suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development.Under the pressures of climate change,water scarcity,and socioeconomic development,the ecotone(i.e.,transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change.Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends.Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe.The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment.In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China,issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally,and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.

Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over China were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern China in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern China was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2) During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast China, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern China, the western part of Northwest China is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest China, the central part of North China and Northeast China since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.

近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征

利用CRU(Climate Research Unit)月降水和月平均气温资料, 通过构造一个既包含降水变化又考虑温度变化对潜在蒸发影响的干湿指标, 对我国北方近100年(1901～1998年)、 50年(1951～2002年)、 20年(1981～2002年)和近10年(1991～2002年)干湿变化趋势进行了系统的检测和分析, 突出了在全球增暖背景下温度变化对干湿变化的重要影响, 揭示了中国北方四个不同时段干湿变化趋势的基本特征.结果表明: 由于受温度升高的影响, 近100年我国西部地区降水尽管增加但并不存在变湿趋势, 而东部地区降水显著增加的地区明显呈现出变湿趋势, 显著变湿的范围较降水增加的范围大, 且强度明显增强, 这与这个地区温度的降低有关.在近50年, 100°E以东的北方地区是明显的干旱化趋势; 西北西部显著变湿的范围较降水显著增加的范围为小, 而东部干旱化区域的范围较降水显著减少的区域大.这充分说明了增暖能够减弱降水增加对地表水分收支的贡献, 也就是加剧降水减少的干旱化程度.在近20年, 新疆北部尽管降水量有所增加, 但并未改变该地区干旱化的时空格局, 也未发现显著的变湿趋势存在, 这个时段北方大部分地区仍然以干旱化趋势为主.特别值得注意的是, 在有些地区干湿指标的变化趋势与降水的变化趋势完全相反.在20年和近100年时段上, 我国西部大部分地区仍处在一个干旱化的进程中, 而华北地区在20年和50年时段上均表现为一个干旱化的趋势.

中国三北地区荒漠化区域分类与发展趋势综合研究

中国北方土地荒漠化主要受青藏高原隆升以来形成的构造 -沉积特征、水文地质条件、全球气候变化、尤其是亚洲季风等地质背景控制。本文仅对北方沙质荒漠化、水蚀荒漠化两种主要的荒漠化类型的区域地质分布、成因及其发展趋势进行探讨。三北地区沙质荒漠化依成因可分为 :就地起沙型、风沙侵入型和土地粗粒化型等。就地起沙型沙质荒漠化主要分布在西部内陆盆地周缘冲洪积扇上 ,中东部高原、冲积平原上的沙漠边缘地带、沙地内部和流经这些沙漠和沙地的古河道 ,以及河湖相砂质沉积物和以砂质沉积物为母质的土壤分布区 ;风沙侵入型沙质荒漠化主要分布在上述沙漠、沙地边缘的下风地带 ,如巴丹吉林沙漠和腾格里沙漠的东南缘、毛乌素沙地以南的覆沙黄土区、科尔沁沙地以东的辽河平原等 ;土地粗化主要分布在西部盆地沙漠与戈壁的过渡地带、中东部高原砾质沙草原。沙质荒漠化在毛乌素、科尔沁和浑善达克等沙地、河西走廊的局部地区有所逆转 ,但三北地区总体上仍呈恶化趋势 ,尤其是以地表土壤粗化为主的沙质荒漠化的发展更应引起人们的关注。水蚀荒漠化依地质背景之不同可分为土漠化和岩漠化两类 ,前者主要分布在北方中部黄土高原地区、内蒙古科尔沁沙地南侧的黄土分布区等 ;后者主要分布于太行山北部、辽宁西北部?

我国沙漠化研究的若干问题——4.沙漠化的防治战略与途径

沙漠化是干旱、半干旱及部分半湿润地区由于人地关系不相协调所造成的以风沙活动为主要标志的土地退化。目前我国沙漠化防治仍然面临着"局部治理,整体恶化"的严峻态势。为了使沙漠化防治更加有效,需要我们以自然与人为因素及其相互作用为主线,对沙漠化的成因、发展或逆转过程、沙漠化土地时空分布特征及其变化等关键问题有进一步的认识,进而明确沙漠化防治的战略和途径。根据我们的研究和总结,提出了我国沙漠化防治的战略、指导方针、基本原则和途径。

中国北方沙漠化发展趋势及对策

80年代中期,中国北方已经沙漠化的土地有20.12万平方公里,比十年前增加了2.48万平方公里,平均每年增加2103.2平方公里,发展速率1.47%,沙漠化主要发展在河北坝上、察哈尔草原和乌盟后山地区等农牧交错区.同时约有4.53万平方公里沙漠化土地得到控制,2250平方公里沙漠化土地治理逆转.只要各级重视、采取措施、恢复生态平衡,使农牧交错地区土地沙漠化得以逆转.这里还是一个很有前途的地方.

中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特征及未来趋势

利用1951—2006年中国台站日平均观测资料对北方农牧带过去56 a气候变化特征进行了分析,指出该农牧带年降水量具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,近10 a来呈明显的下降趋势;年平均气温在20世纪90年代前期变化幅度较小,1987年之后持续偏暖,与全球及中国温度变化趋势一致;降水和温度变化具有明显的季节和区域差异。在气候特征分析基础上,利用全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式在SRES A2排放情景下对未来30 a(2001—2030年)的气候变化进行了预估,对照30 a模式气候场(1961—1990年),分析了未来30 a北方农牧交错带降水和温度变化的可能趋势,结果表明,未来该区平均地面气温持续升高,升温幅度达0.3℃,温度日较差将明显减小;年降水量呈增加趋势,但增加幅度较小,且降水变化具有明显的季节和地域差异;未来黄河上游地区干旱的威胁仍十分严峻。

华南北东向断裂在南海北部陆架的延伸

南海北部陆缘发育大量含油气盆地,且南海北部陆坡存在丰富的天然气水合物资源,厘清其总体构造格局,对理解南海北部陆缘的构造演化及动力学机制、地震灾害评估与资源开发等具有十分重要的意义。本文通过重磁异常、二维地震资料解译,结合地震活动及构造地貌特征分析,发现华南陆块和南海北部陆缘的NE向主干断裂延伸方向一致且特征可进行对比,即华南发育的滨海、长乐-南澳、政和-大埔及邵武-河源-阳江四条NE向主干断裂可自然延伸至南海北部陆缘。延伸至南海北部的四条主干断裂控制了相应盆地的发育,其中,滨海断裂为珠二凹陷的东界,长乐-南澳断裂横穿珠江口盆地的珠一和珠二凹陷,政和-大埔断裂位于珠一、珠二坳陷的西界以及北礁凹陷的东界,河源-阳江断裂为琼东南盆地的西界。南海北部陆缘盆地群与华南陆缘盆地群在成因上具有相似性,皆为拉分盆地。南海北部陆缘分布的NE向右行断裂对盆地的发育以及展布起决定性作用,为控盆断裂。NEE向断裂控制盆地内部坳陷的充填样式,为控坳断裂。

中国北方沙尘暴气候成因及未来趋势预测

20世纪80年代以来的太阳活动加强,全球气候变暖,青藏高原地面加热场强度加强,欧亚西风急流轴北移,西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏西、强度加强,蒙古气旋减弱,西北西部的沙尘源区降水增加,是中国北方沙尘暴减少的主要原因。20世纪末到21世纪初太阳活动开始进入新一轮的减弱期,引起气候变暖趋势减弱,气温上升趋势减缓,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱,蒙古气旋逐渐加强。预计未来中国北方沙尘暴在波动中逐渐增加,进入新一轮的相对活跃期。考虑到2003/2004年前冬(12～1月)青藏高原地面加热场强度偏弱,新疆北部、河西走廊及宁夏等地气温异常偏低,后冬(1～3月)蒙古气旋明显加强。预计2004年中国北方沙尘暴明显比近年偏多。偏多地区主要在中、西部。

珠江河口及邻近海域表层沉积物特征及其泥沙运移趋势

根据现场采集的1 309个表层沉积物样品,分析了珠江河口及邻近海域的表层沉积物特征。在此基础上,应用Gao-Collins的粒径趋势分析模型(GSTA模型),计算了珠江河口及邻近海域表层沉积物的净输运趋势,并结合有关动力沉积背景讨论了其实际意义。结果表明:珠江口及邻近海域表层沉积物类型共有8种,其中以粘土质粉砂和粉砂分布最广泛。受径流、潮流、沿岸流、波浪和陆架环流等动力作用,表层沉积物颗粒呈现出研究区西南部及北部口门附近的泥沙较粗,中部和东部的泥沙较细。东部(即大鹏湾及大亚湾以南的陆架区域)和西南部的分选略好于珠江河口及近岸10 m以浅区域,珠江河口及近岸10 m以浅区域的分选又略好于研究区的中南部区域(万山群岛的东南面及担秆列岛以南的区域),但泥沙总体分选差。不同级配的泥沙分布和沉积特征不一致。珠江河口及邻近海域泥沙运移规律较复杂,珠江河口及近岸区域(10 m以浅)泥沙主要向南和西南运移;外海陆架区泥沙主要向东运移;大亚湾和红海湾以南至60 m以浅区域的泥沙呈现向南运移的趋势。黄茅海北面的泥沙向西南运移;大襟岛和荷包岛以南及两岛之间是高盐陆架水入侵通道,泥沙整体向北运移;黄茅海中部泥沙以垂直落淤为主,水平运移趋势不显著,只略微向西输运,故黄茅海河口湾中西部床面有淤浅的趋势。在(113.52E,21.76N)点附近存在一个巨大的泥沙辐聚中心,其东北、西北和南面泥沙均向该点运移辐聚;在万山岛至桂山岛周边区域泥沙呈现出逆时针方向的环流运移。

荷包岛南北向构造

荷包岛为南海北缘一鲜为人知的小岛。岛上发育颇具规模的南北向构造,由一系列压性结构面组成并有北延至大陆沿海的迹象。荷包岛南北向构造很可能是一较大规模的构造带的残余,它既与华南大陆广为发育的近东西向构造带有关,亦受控于南海海盆的新生代扩张。对它的深入研究,有可能成为合理解释南海北缘构造系统形成、发育历史的关键。

三万里河东入海 五千仞岳上摩天——论20年来中国西部、北方散文

本文探讨了近20 年来我国西部、北方散文发展的特点,认为在题材开掘上具有六个方面的多触角、多意向的多样化倾向,艺术视野上在三个方面正以超越传统的创新意识,寻找契合时代的散文形式。文坛西北风过耳,它的美学追求的主导倾向是古朴、质直、粗犷。

中国北方近50年干旱变化特征

根据1950～2000年我国629个站逐月降水资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,根据计算出的Z指数把各地的旱涝情况划分成7个等级,并在此基础上计算了干旱发生的范围.通过研究干旱范围变化趋势和特征,进而诊断干旱发生严重程度的变化.通过对近半个多世纪来的资料进行分析,发现我国北方主要农业区不同程度的干旱面积均有扩大趋势,在不同季节以及北方区内的其它区域干旱的发生发展还有不同的特征.

南海北部次表层叶绿素最大值年际变化特征分析

次表层叶绿素最大值(subsurface chlorophyll maxima,SCMs)广泛存在于全球各海域,该最大值层往往具有较高的海洋初级生产力和新生产力,因此研究其年际变化特征对深入理解气候变化影响下海洋生态系统变化有重要意义。本文采用一维物理-生态耦合模型(one-dimensional physical-biological coupled model,MEM-1D)较好地模拟了1994—2019年南海北部海盆区海温、盐度、营养盐和叶绿素的垂向分布,并采用3种统计方法,分别从整体趋势、不同时间尺度及显著变化三方面分析了SCMs特征因子(强度、深度和厚度)的年际变化特征。总体而言1994—2019年SCMs强度整体减小趋势较弱(趋势斜率S<0),具体表现为先减小(1994—2004年)后增大(2005—2012年)再减小(2013—2019年),其中1999—2004年显著变小;SCMs深度呈变深趋势(趋势斜率S>0),1994—2011年逐渐变深,之后逐渐变浅,但变化不显著;SCMs厚度整体呈增大趋势,1999年起显著变大。相关分析发现,海表面温度在年际变化上与SCMs特征因子间不存在相关性(P>0.05);海表面温度对SCMs的影响主要表现在季节尺度上,SCMs深度和强度均与海表面温度呈一致性变化。季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型对SCMs三个特征因子的拟合效果较好,平均绝对百分比误差分别为5.33%(强度)、0.62%(深度)、2.49%(厚度),模型可用于对SCMs特征因子变化趋势的预测。