Causes of the Extreme Hot Midsummer in Central and South China during 2017:Role of the Western Tropical Pacific Warming

This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA.

Review on observational studies of western tropical Pacific Ocean circulation and climate

The Western Tropical Pacific(WTP) Ocean holds the largest area of warm water(>28℃) in the world ocean referred to as the Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP),which modulates the regional and global climate through strong atmospheric convection and its variability.The WTP is unique in terms of its complex 3-D ocean circulation system and intensive multiscale variability,making it crucial in the water and energy cycle of the global ocean.Great advances have been made in understanding the complexity of the WTP ocean circulation and associated climate impact by the international scientific community since the 1960 s through field experiments.In this study,we review the evolving insight to the 3-D structure and multi-scale variability of the ocean circulation in the WTP and their climatic impacts based on in-situ ocean observations in the past decades,with emphasis on the achievements since 2000.The challenges and open que stions remaining are reviewed as well as future plan for international study of the WTP ocean circulation and climate.

Influence of climatic warming in the Southern and Northern Hemi-sphere on the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean

Based on analyzing the surface air temperature series in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere and the tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific Ocean, the relationships between climatic warming and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone are investigated. The results showed that with the climatic warming in both hemispheres, the frequency of the tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean reduces and its intensity weakens simultaneously. A possible explanation might be that the cold air invasion from the Southern Hemisphere weakens due to global warming.

N2 fixation rate and diazotroph community structure in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean

In the present study, we report N2 fixation rate(15N isotope tracer assay) and the diazotroph community structure(using the molecular method) in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean(WTNP)(13°–20°N, 120°–160°E). Our independent evidence on the basis of both in situ N2 fixation activity and diazotroph community structure showed the dominance of unicellular N2 fixation over majority of the WTNP surface waters during the sampling periods.Moreover, a shift in the diazotrophic composition from unicellular cyanobacteria group B-dominated to Trichodesmium spp.-dominated toward the western boundary current(Kuroshio) was also observed in 2013. We hypothesize that nutrient availability may have played a major role in regulating the biogeography of N2 fixation.In surface waters, volumetric N2 fixation rate(calculated by nitrogen) ranged between 0.6 and 2.6 nmol/(L·d) and averaged(1.2±0.5) nmol/(L·d), with <10 μm size fraction contributed predominantly(88%±6%) to the total rate between 135°E and 160°E. Depth-integrated N2 fixation rate over the upper 200 m ranged between 150 μmol/(m^2·d)and 480 μmol/(m^2·d)average(225±105) μmol/(m^2·d). N2 fixation can account for 6.2%±3.7% of the depthintegrated primary production, suggesting that N2 fixation is a significant N source sustaining new and export production in the WTNP. The role of N2 fixation in biogeochemical cycling in this climate change-vulnerable region calls for further investigations.

The bacterial diversity and community composition altered in the oxygen minimum zone of the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean

The oxygen minimum zones(OMZs)are globally expanding,yet the variation pattern of microbial communities related to dissolved oxygen levels remain unclear.Spatial variability of bacterial diversity and community composition(repre sented by 16 S rRNA)of six stations was investigated within the water column in the seamount area of Tropical Western Pacific Ocean(TWPO)in May 2019.The seawater has dissolved oxygen(DO)concentration of 3.01-6.68 mg/L and the core of the oxygen minimum zones was located between the depths of 650 m and 1750 m.The bacterial alpha-diversity showed unimodal pattern with the decreasing DO with depths and peaked in the upper oxycline(UO)of OMZs.The bacterial community structure of the mixed layer(ML)and the bottom layer clustered and separated from each other,while those of UO and the OMZ core(OM)clustered and overlapped.Overall,bacterial community composition transitioned from being Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria-dominant in ML to being Gammaproteobacteria and Nitrososphaeria/Deltaproteobacteria-dominant in UO and OM,and then changed to being Clostridia and unidentified Actinobacteria-dominant in the bottom layer.Moreover,both bacterial alpha-diversity and the abundant classes fitted varying sectioned functions with DO.The DO solely explained 40.37%of the variation of bacterial community composition among layers(P<0.001).The predicted function profiling showed that the water column was predominant by chemoheterotrophy,cyanobacteria,and photoautotrophy in ML,by chemoheterotrophy and nitrate/sulfide cycling in UO and OM,and by chemoheterotrophy and ferme ntation in the bottom layer.Our findings revealed the DO-associated variation in bacterial diversity and community composition,and help to clarify the potential responses of microbes and their involved biogeochemical processes to the expansion and intensification of OMZs.

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°E section strengthened. (4)The northward flow volume of warm water from the origin area of Kuroshio, i. e. , the tropical oceanic area south of 18?0' N and from the west of 130?E to the Philippine coast, decreased. When those kinds of abnomal variation occurred, air divergence on the low level (1 000 hPa) over the Northwest Pacific Ocean was intensified, favourable to the strengthening of subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Spring Indian Ocean–Western Pacific SST Contrast and the East Asian Summer Rainfall Anomaly

studying the relationship between SST in the tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）, tropical western Pacific （TWP）, and tropical eastern Pacific （TEP） and East Asian summer rainfall （EASR）, using data provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD and the National Climate Center of China for the period 1979-2008, an index, SSTDI, was defined to describe the SST difference between the TIO and TWP. In comparison with the winter ENSO, the spring SST contrast between the TIO and TWP was found to be more significantly associated with summer rainfall in East Asia, especially along the EASR band and in Northeast China. This spring SST contrast can persist into summer, resulting in a more significant meridional teleconnection pattern of lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific and East Asia. These circulation anomalies are dynamically consistent with the summer rainfall anomaly along the EASR band. When the SSTDI is higher （lower） than normal, the EASR over the Yangtze River valley, Korea, and central and southern Japan is heavier （less） than normal. The present results suggest that this spring SST contrast can be used as a new and better predictor of EASR anomalies.

Physical oceanography of the Caroline M4 seamount in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean in summer 2017

Physical oceanography plays an important role in the formation of submarine sediments,and the distribution of nutriments and biocenoses in seamounts.The M4 seamount is located in the Caroline Island Ridge of the Western Pacific Ocean.The physical properties around M4 seamount are preliminarily analyzed based on the in-situ data obtained in summer 2017 in Caroline M4 seamount and open-sourced data.We found that the water in the upper 200 m is controlled by the westward North Equatorial Current(NEC),while the water between 300-1000 m is dominated by the eastward North Equatorial Undercurrent(NEUC).The current direction fluctuates significantly below 300 m at upstream stations.At the same depth of the lee sides,the current direction changes with the distance from seamount.These are likely caused by the obstacle of M4 seamount.The calculation results show that there is an anticyclonic cap above M4 seamount caused by tidal rectification.Tidal currents in M4 seamount are squeezed by the topography and amplified,and the amplified tidal currents play a dominant role in M4 seamount.First,the circulation system generated by the interaction of the amplified tidal current and M4 seamount drives the upward/downward movement of the isotherms.Secondly,the thickness of the surface turbulent layer is changed with the tidal phase.Thirdly,high turbulent diffusivities are found in the bottom of M4 seamount,and these are most likely attributed to the turbulent mixing induced by the mutual effect between semidiurnal tidal currents and steep bathymetry.This article of physical oceanography provides scientific basis for further analysis of the distribution of biological community and deposition mechanism in M4 seamount.

Predicting Western Pacific Subtropical High Using a Combined Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Forecast

Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.

Characteristics of change of the SST in the tropical western Pa-cific and the tropical Indian Ocean and its response to thechange of the Antarctic ice area

In this paper, by using ocean surface temperature data(COADS), the study is made of the characteristics of the monthly and annual changes of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans, which have important influences on the climate change of the whole globe and the relation between ENSO(El Nio Southern Oscillation) and the Antarctic ice area is also discussed. The result indicates that in the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans the change of Sea Surface Temperture(SST) is conspicuous both monthly and annaully, and shows different change tendency between them. This result may be due to different relation in the vibration period of SST between the two Oceans. The better corresponding relationship is obvious in the annual change of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean with the occurrence El Nio and La Nia. The change of the SST in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Oceans has a close relation to the Antarctic ice area, especially to the ice areas in the eastern south Pole and Ross Sea, and its notable correlative relationship appears in 16 months when the SST of the tropical western Pacific and the Indian Oceans lag back the Antarctic ice area.

The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Nino event

The climate variability induced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)cycle drives significant changes in the physical state of the tropical Western Pacific,which has important impacts on the upper ocean carbon cycle.During 2015-2016,a super El Nino event occurred in the equatorial Pacific.Suspended particulate matter(SPM)data and related environmental observations in the tropical Western Pacific were obtained during two cruses in Dec.2014 and 2015,which coincided with the early and peak stages of this super El Nino event.Compared with the marine environments in the tropical Western Pacific in Dec.2014,an obviously enhanced upwelling occurred in the Mindanao Dome region;the nitrate concentration in the euphotic zone almo st tripled;and the size,mass concentration,and volume concentration of SPM obviously increased in Dec.2015.The enhanced upwelling in the Mindanao Dome region carried cold but eutrophic water upward from the deep ocean to shallow depths,even into the euphotic zone,which disrupted the previously N-limited conditions and induced a remarkable increase in phytoplankton blooms in the euphotic zone.The se results reveal the mechanism of how nutrient-limited ecosystems in the tropical Western Pacific respond to super El Nino events.In the context of the ENSO cycle,if predicted changes in biogenic particles occur,the proportion of carbon storage in the tropical Western Pacific is estimated to be increased by more than 52%,ultimately affecting the regional and possibly even global carbon cycle.This paper highlights the prospect for long-term prediction of the impact of a super El Nino event on the global carbon cycle and has profound implications for understanding El Nino events.

Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Thus, despite being under a similar background of La Ni?a decaying year, the distinct evolutions of the IOBM, PMM, and MJO in spring and summer of 2018 and2021 were the main causes of the notable differences in TC activity over the WNP during these two summers, and the anomalies in IOBM and MJO contributed more significantly than those of the PMM.

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.

Dynamic features of near-inertial oscillations in the Northwestern Pacific derived from mooring observations from^2015 to 2018

Near-inertial oscillation is an important physical process transferring surface wind energy into deep ocean.We investigated the near-inertial kinetic energy(NIKE)variability using acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements from a mooring array deployed in the tropical western Pacific Ocean along 130°E at 8.5°N,11°N,12.6°N,15°N,and 17.5°N from September 2015 to January 2018.Spatial features,decay timescales,and significant seasonal variability of the observed NIKE were described.At the mooring sites of 17.5°N,15°N,and 12.6°N,the NIKE peaks occurred in boreal autumn and the NIKE troughs were observed in boreal spring.By contrast,the NIKE at 11°N and 8.5°N showed peaks in winter and troughs in summer.Tropical cyclones and strong wind events played an important role in the emergence of high-NIKE events and explained the seasonality and latitudinal characteristics of the observed NIKE.

热带中西太平洋大眼金枪鱼的繁殖生物学特性

利用漂流金枪鱼延绳钓作业方式,于2018年5月—2019年3月对热带中西太平洋海域(WCPO,2°03′~11°17′S,163°14′~173°35′E)的大眼金枪鱼进行了取样,对其中886尾进行了繁殖生物学测定。使用广义线性模型(GLM)和多元有序Logistic回归模型,结合圆形统计方法,分析个体叉长等生物因素、渔获水深和月度等时空因素对繁殖生物学参数的影响。结果显示,雄性和雌性平均叉长分别为(132.2±19.1)cm和(125.4±16.8)cm。取样群体中,雌雄比为0.54±0.74,且叉长与雌雄比具有负相关(r=−0.263,P=0.016),叉长大于140 cm后,雄性占主导。GLM模型结果显示,性腺指数(GSI)与叉长之间存在显著的二次方关系,即个体GSI随着叉长增加,当雄性和雌性叉长分别达到130~140 cm和140~150 cm后,GSI随叉长下降。基于圆形统计发现,月度对个体GSI具有显著影响,其中雄性GSI上半年较下半年高(正弦显著,P<0.001),而雌性GSI年末和年初高于年中(余弦显著,P=0.021)。有序多元Logistic模型结果显示,性腺成熟度随叉长显著增加(P<0.001),雄性性腺成熟度在5—7月较高(余弦显著,P=0.004)。此外,栖息水层对雄性个体的性腺成熟度具有显著的影响(正相关,P<0.001)。雄性和雌性个体50%性成熟叉长分别为(96.13±1.24)cm和(104.93±2.60)cm。研究结果可为更好地了解热带WCPO大眼金枪鱼的繁殖生物学特征、科学养护热带WCPO大眼金枪鱼资源提供参考。

基于LSTM的气候变化对中西太平洋围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣CPUE影响的滞后效应

黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)和鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)是大洋性高度洄游物种,也是全球大洋性渔业的主要捕捞对象,其种群分布和资源密度容易受气候变化所引起的海洋环境变化影响,且存在响应滞后。为了探索气候变化对中西太平洋海域(WCPO)低龄黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣群体影响及滞后效应,本研究基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)分析了海洋尼诺指数(ONI)对1982年至2021年间WCPO围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)的影响,利用不同时间步长模拟不同滞后期(0~12个月)下CPUE对ONI响应。结果表明:LSTM适用于对黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣等大洋性种群资源密度与ONI等环境因素间滞后效应的分析;WCPO赤道南北不同海域围网黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣CPUE对ONI的响应存在滞后,且不同海域的最佳滞后期均为12个月;最佳滞后期与渔获群体年龄相当,表明WCPO黄鳍金枪鱼和鲣的繁殖能力或幼鱼存活率易受到气候变化及其引起的海洋环境变动影响,表现出时长为捕捞年龄的滞后时间。研究方法与结果为后续开展WCPO关键物种群体分布研究提供了资源变动机制上的新思路。

Circulation in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and its seasonal variation

An assimilation data set based on the GFDL MOM3 model and the NODC XBT data set is used to examine the circulation in the western tropical Pacific and its seasonal variations. The assimilated and observed velocities and transports of the mean circulation agree well. Transports of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC), North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) west of 140°E and Kuroshio origin estimated with the assimilation data display the seasonal cycles, roughly strong in boreal spring and weak in autumn, with a little phase difference. The NECC transport also has a semi-annual fluctuation resulting from the phase lag between seasonal cycles of two tropical gyres’ recirculations. Strong in summer during the southeast monsoon period, the seasonal cycle of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is somewhat different from those of its upstreams, the MC and New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC), implying the monsoon’s impact on it.

东亚夏季风与热带海气相互作用研究进展

在东亚夏季风变异的众多影响因子中,热带海温是影响夏季风系统变化的主要原因。近年来,国内外学者在热带海温异常对东亚夏季风影响的研究方面取得了很大进展。本文从季节内、年际到年代际时间尺度,简要回顾了近年来关于热带海气相互作用影响东亚夏季风变异及其机理的研究进展,特别综述了关于ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation)、热带印度洋和大西洋海温异常对东亚夏季风系统的影响和机理方面的主要研究进展。此外,本文还系统回顾了热带海温对东亚夏季风与冬季风关联的影响及过程。最后,提出了在热带海温异常影响东亚夏季风季节内尺度变化、全球变暖下热带海温的变化及其对东亚夏季风的影响等方面值得深入探讨的科学问题。

2024年春季中国东部降水季节内异常特征及成因分析

2024年春季(3—5月)我国平均降水量为163 mm,为1961年以来历史同期第六多,4—5月东部地区旱涝灾害并重,华南和江南大部降水较常年同期偏多,尤其是华南大部降水偏多5成以上,多次暴雨过程造成部分地区发生洪涝;而黄淮、江淮北部降水显著偏少,春季后期干旱迅速发展。春季“华南涝、黄淮旱”的形成与东亚大气环流关键系统异常及其季节内阶段性变化密切相关。4月异常偏强、偏南的西北太平洋副热带高压和低层850 hPa偏强的西北太平洋反气旋为华南和江南提供了有利的水汽输送条件,导致南方地区发生多次强降水过程;而黄淮干旱主要受4—5月持续偏强的朝鲜半岛-日本海高压(小笠原高压)和偏南的西北太平洋副热带高压共同影响。此外,春季El Ni o衰减和热带印度洋海温异常偏暖有助于激发异常偏强的西北太平洋反气旋,是我国南方强降水发生的重要海洋外强迫背景。

中西太平洋自由群鲣资源丰度序列的振荡模态分析

为掌握中西太平洋自由群鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)资源的波动周期特征及其与海洋环境振荡的响应关系,利用集合经验模态分解方法,对1990—2019年中西太平洋自由群鲣的标准化后CPUE时间序列进行振荡周期分解;并用时滞分析方法,获得各波动周期和环境周期相应关系强度和相位差。结果表明:1)自由群鲣资源种群波动可以认为是0.3 a、0.6 a、1.5 a、3.5 a和5.5 a等多个周期的振荡叠加综合效应表现。其中0.3 a和0.6 a为资源的季节性波动特征,相对影响较小;而1.5 a和3.5 a的年际波动对中西太平洋自由群鲣资源变动影响较大(累积方差解释率为46.96%)。2)自由群鲣资源的振荡是环境振荡和鲣生物周期综合作用的反映,其1.5 a的振荡和鲣的初次性成熟年龄有关;3.5 a的振荡和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关。3)3.5 a的振荡与尼诺指数相关系数为0.61,相位差8个月。