The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the...The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.展开更多
This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of R...This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.展开更多
Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in ...Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in summer and its impacts on tropical cyclones are studied. In this paper, an intensity index of the ITCZ is proposed according to Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) in the region of (5°-20°N, 120°-150°E) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Then strong and weak ITCZ years are classified and different variables during the strong/weak ITCZ years are analyzed. The composite results show that the ITCZ anomaly is connected to the general atmospheric circulation and SST distribution. In the strong ITCZ years, the subtropical anticyclone weakens and shifts northward. Besides, there is salient cyclonic anomaly at the low level and anticyclonic anomaly at the high level. SST patterns in the preceding winter resemble to those of La Nifia. It could persist into the succeeding summer. However, it is opposite in the weak ITCZ years. The impact of the ITCZ anomaly on the tropical cyclone (TC) formation and track is also discussed. There are more TCs over the WNP (5°-20°N, 120°-150°E) in the strong ITCZ years and there is a significant increase in the northward recurving TCs. In the weak ITCZ years, fewer TCs occur and the frequency of the northwestward track is higher.展开更多
This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mix...This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records.Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient(RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the highRC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.展开更多
In order to investigate the different thermodynamic mechanisms between rapid intensifying (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) tropical cyclones (TCs), the thermodynamic structures of two sets of composite TCs are anal...In order to investigate the different thermodynamic mechanisms between rapid intensifying (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) tropical cyclones (TCs), the thermodynamic structures of two sets of composite TCs are analyzed based on the complete-form vertical vorticity tendency equation and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Each composite is composed of five TCs, whose intensities change rapidly over the coastal waters of China. The results show that the maximum apparent heating source Q1 exists in both the upper and lower troposphere near the RI TC center, and Q1 gets stronger at the lower level during the TC intensification period. But for the RW TC, the maximum Q1 exists at the middle level near the TC center, and Q1 gets weaker while the TC weakens. The maximum apparent moisture sink Q2 lies in the mid troposphere. Q2 becomes stronger and its peak-value height rises while TC intensifies, and vice versa. The increase of diabatic heating with height near the TC center in the mid-upper troposphere and the increase of vertical inhomogeneous heating near the TC center in the lower troposphere are both favorable to the TCs' rapid intensification; otherwise, the intensity of the TC decreases rapidly.展开更多
Data from the China Meteorological Administration and ERA-Interim are used to examine the environmental characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)with abrupt intensity change.The results show that,of all 65...Data from the China Meteorological Administration and ERA-Interim are used to examine the environmental characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)with abrupt intensity change.The results show that,of all 657 landfalling TCs during 1979-2017,71%,70%and 65%of all landfalling TDs,TSs and TYs,respectively,intensify.Of all the 16595 samples,4.0%and 0.2%of typhoons and tropical storms,respectively,experience over-water rapid intensification(RI)process during their life cycle.Meanwhile,4.5%and 0.6%of typhoons and tropial storms,respectively,undergo overwater rapid decay(RD).These two kinds of cases,i.e.,RI and RD,are used to analyze their associated large-scale conditions.Comparisons show that the RI cases are generally on the south side of the strong western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH);warm sea surface temperatures(SSTs)and sufficient water vapor fluxes existing in RI samples is a dominant feature that is conducive to the development of TCs.Also,the moderate low-level relative vorticity is favorable for TC intensification.On the contrary,the RD TCs are located on the west side of the WPSH;significant decreasing SSTs and low-level water vapor transport may synergistically contribute to RD.Simultaneously,low-level relative vorticity seems to be unfavorable for the development of TCs.展开更多
This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational f...This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges.It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.展开更多
This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and ...This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity changes.Although intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some improvement.The greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional models.These models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational data.Continued improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.展开更多
This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC...This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405060,41475082,41305049,41275067,41475059)
文摘The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.
基金supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Grant City U ECity U101/16。
文摘This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying(RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index(PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity(LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern(the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts(Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.
基金National Public Welfare Research Foundation(GYHY201006021)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275001)
文摘Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in summer and its impacts on tropical cyclones are studied. In this paper, an intensity index of the ITCZ is proposed according to Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) in the region of (5°-20°N, 120°-150°E) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Then strong and weak ITCZ years are classified and different variables during the strong/weak ITCZ years are analyzed. The composite results show that the ITCZ anomaly is connected to the general atmospheric circulation and SST distribution. In the strong ITCZ years, the subtropical anticyclone weakens and shifts northward. Besides, there is salient cyclonic anomaly at the low level and anticyclonic anomaly at the high level. SST patterns in the preceding winter resemble to those of La Nifia. It could persist into the succeeding summer. However, it is opposite in the weak ITCZ years. The impact of the ITCZ anomaly on the tropical cyclone (TC) formation and track is also discussed. There are more TCs over the WNP (5°-20°N, 120°-150°E) in the strong ITCZ years and there is a significant increase in the northward recurving TCs. In the weak ITCZ years, fewer TCs occur and the frequency of the northwestward track is higher.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975071,42175073)the open project of the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration (TFJJ202003)。
文摘This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records.Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient(RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the highRC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875030, 40730948, and 40575018)China Meteorogical Administration Climate Change Program (CCSF2007-13)
文摘In order to investigate the different thermodynamic mechanisms between rapid intensifying (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) tropical cyclones (TCs), the thermodynamic structures of two sets of composite TCs are analyzed based on the complete-form vertical vorticity tendency equation and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Each composite is composed of five TCs, whose intensities change rapidly over the coastal waters of China. The results show that the maximum apparent heating source Q1 exists in both the upper and lower troposphere near the RI TC center, and Q1 gets stronger at the lower level during the TC intensification period. But for the RW TC, the maximum Q1 exists at the middle level near the TC center, and Q1 gets weaker while the TC weakens. The maximum apparent moisture sink Q2 lies in the mid troposphere. Q2 becomes stronger and its peak-value height rises while TC intensifies, and vice versa. The increase of diabatic heating with height near the TC center in the mid-upper troposphere and the increase of vertical inhomogeneous heating near the TC center in the lower troposphere are both favorable to the TCs' rapid intensification; otherwise, the intensity of the TC decreases rapidly.
文摘Data from the China Meteorological Administration and ERA-Interim are used to examine the environmental characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)with abrupt intensity change.The results show that,of all 657 landfalling TCs during 1979-2017,71%,70%and 65%of all landfalling TDs,TSs and TYs,respectively,intensify.Of all the 16595 samples,4.0%and 0.2%of typhoons and tropical storms,respectively,experience over-water rapid intensification(RI)process during their life cycle.Meanwhile,4.5%and 0.6%of typhoons and tropial storms,respectively,undergo overwater rapid decay(RD).These two kinds of cases,i.e.,RI and RD,are used to analyze their associated large-scale conditions.Comparisons show that the RI cases are generally on the south side of the strong western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH);warm sea surface temperatures(SSTs)and sufficient water vapor fluxes existing in RI samples is a dominant feature that is conducive to the development of TCs.Also,the moderate low-level relative vorticity is favorable for TC intensification.On the contrary,the RD TCs are located on the west side of the WPSH;significant decreasing SSTs and low-level water vapor transport may synergistically contribute to RD.Simultaneously,low-level relative vorticity seems to be unfavorable for the development of TCs.
文摘This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges.It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.
文摘This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in 2018.Recent advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity changes.Although intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some improvement.The greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional models.These models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational data.Continued improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.
文摘This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent(2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone(TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.