Identifying factors affecting the survival of individuals is essential for understanding the evolution of life-history traits and population dynamics.Despite numerous studies on this subject in north-temperate environ...Identifying factors affecting the survival of individuals is essential for understanding the evolution of life-history traits and population dynamics.Despite numerous studies on this subject in north-temperate environments,there is a lack of equivalent studies at similar latitudes in the south.Here,we used a 14-year dataset of capture,banding,and resighting to estimate the annual variation in the apparent adult survival probability of a south-temperate population of House Wrens(Troglodytes aedon bonariae).We evaluated temporal variation in sur-vival and the effect of environmental(climatic)and demographic variables(adult abundance,total number of fledglings produced during each breeding season)on survival estimators.We found that the probability of adult survival decreased as the abundance of breeding adults increased.This density-dependent effect could be related to the resident lifestyle of southern House Wrens,which could determine an intense competition for territories and resources that ultimately would affect their survival.展开更多
The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management.Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018,this study examines...The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management.Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018,this study examines the annual change characteristics of monthly runoff of the Shiyang River Basin,Heihe River Basin,and Shule River Basin in the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China.Many indexes are used and analyzed,including the coefficient of variance,the complete regulation coefficient,the concentration degree and concentration period,the magnitude of change,the skewness coefficient,and the kurtosis coefficient of the annual distribution curves.The results reveal the following:(1)The inhomogeneity of annual runoff distribution in the Taolai River and the rivers to the west of it,except the Shiyou River,show an increasing trend.Conversely,the inhomogeneity of the rivers to the east of the Taolai River generally show a downward trend,but the coefficient of variance value is still very high.(2)In the Shiyang River Basin,the annual distribution of the concentration period is characterized by a relatively discrete pattern.Conversely,the Heihe River Basin exhibits a relatively concentrated pattern,and the distribution pattern of the Shule River Basin is quite different.Notably,all concentration periods in the three basins have shifted backward after the 2000s.(3)The Shiyang River Basin exhibits disordered annual distribution curves of runoff in different years.In contrast,the Heihe River Basin presents a typical‘single-peak’pattern with a prominent right-skewed.The Shule River Basin has regular distribution curves,with a gradually significant‘double-peak’pattern from east to west.Overall,there has been a slight change in runoff in the Shiyang River Basin,while the Heihe River Basin and Shule River Basin have experienced significant increases in runoff.The annual distribution curves of runoff in the Liyuan River and the rivers to the east of it exhibit a gentle peak pattern,and the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is low.Conversely,the rivers to the west of the Liyuan River,excluding the Danghe River,display a sharp peak and thick tail pattern,indicating that the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is high.These findings have practical implications for the planning and management of water resources in the Hexi Corridor.Moreover,they provide a solid foundation for predicting future changes in regional water resources.展开更多
A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received se...A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received several treatments with various amendments for different periods ranging from 9 to 17 months. The amendments included annual ryegrass or Festulolium residues, powder limestone and various humate compounds alone or in combination with the grass residues. The results suggested a significant effect of ryegrass and Festulolium in reducing penetration resistance into the top 10 cm of the fragipan within 9 - 17 months, particularly when used in combination with certain humate materials such as Leonardite. Apparently, this is the result of the release of certain soluble organic compounds from the plant residues or the humate amendments that increase the solubility of Si and Al associated with the fragipan brittleness, thus decreasing the density of the compacted fragipan material.展开更多
The article deals with the effects of urea and controlled release nitrogen fertilizer (CRNF) on dynamics of pH, electronic conductivity (EC), total nitrogen (TN), NH4^+-N and NO3 -N in floodwater, and the regul...The article deals with the effects of urea and controlled release nitrogen fertilizer (CRNF) on dynamics of pH, electronic conductivity (EC), total nitrogen (TN), NH4^+-N and NO3 -N in floodwater, and the regulation of runoff TN loss from paddy field-based two-cropping rice in Dongting Lake, China, and probes the best fertilization management for controlling N loss. Studies were conducted through modeling alluvial sandy loamy paddy soil (ASP) and purple calcareous clayey paddy soil (PCP) using lysimeter, following the sequence of the soil profiles identified by investigating soil profile. After application of urea in paddy field-based two-cropping rice, TN and NHa+-N concentrations in floodwater reached peak on the 1st and the 3rd day, respectively, and then decreased rapidly over time; all the floodwater NO3--N concentrations were very low; the pH of floodwater gradually rose in case of early rice within 15 d (late rice within 3 d) after application of urea, and EC remained consistent with the dynamics of NH4^+-N. The applied CRNF, especially 70% CRNF, led to significantly lower floodwater TN and NH4^+ concentrations, pH, and EC values compared with urea within 15 d after application. The monitoring result for N loss due to natural rainfall runoff indicated that the amount of TN lost in runoff from paddy field- based two-cropping rice with urea application in Dongting Lake area was 7.47 kg ha^-1, which accounted for 2.49% of urea- N applied, and that with CRNF and 70% CRNF application decreased 24.5 and 27.2% compared with urea application, respectively. The two runoff events, which occurred within 20 d after application, contributed significantly to TN loss from paddy field. TN loss due to the two runoffs in urea, CRNF, and 70% CRNF treatments accounted for 72, 70, and 58% of the total TN loss due to runoff over the whole rice growth season, respectively. And the TN loss in these two CRNF treatments due to the first run-off event at the 10th day after application to early rice decreased 44.9 and 44.2% compared with urea, respectively. In conclusion, the 15-d period after application of urea was the critical time during which N loss occurred due to high floodwater N concentrations. But CRNF decreased N concentrations greatly in floodwater and runoff water during this period. As a result, it obviously reduced TN loss in runoff over the whole rice growth season.展开更多
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the an...An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.展开更多
A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimila...A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.展开更多
85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the p...85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.展开更多
Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this st...Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.展开更多
Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigate...Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.展开更多
The development of tree peony annual shoots is characterized by“withering”,which is related to whether there are bud points in the leaf axillaries of annual shoots.However,the mechanism of“withering”in tree peony ...The development of tree peony annual shoots is characterized by“withering”,which is related to whether there are bud points in the leaf axillaries of annual shoots.However,the mechanism of“withering”in tree peony is still unclear.In this study,Paeonia ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’were used to investigate dynamic changes of annual shoots through anatomy,physiology,transcriptome,and metabolome.The results demonstrated that the developmental dynamics of annual shoots of the two cultivars were comparable.The withering degree of P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’was higher than that of P.ostii‘Fengdan’,and their upper internodes of annual flowering shoots had a lower degree of lignin deposition,cellulose,C/N ratio,showing no obvious sclerenchyma,than the bottom ones and the whole internodes of vegetative shoot,which resulted in the“withering”of upper internodes.A total of 36 phytohormone metabolites were detected,of which 33 and 31 were detected in P.ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’,respectively.In addition,302 and 240 differentially expressed genes related to lignin biosynthesis,carbon and nitrogen metabolism,plant hormone signal transduction,and zeatin biosynthesis were screened from the two cultivars.Furtherly,36 structural genes and 40 transcription factors associated with the development of annual shoots were highly co-expressed,and eight hub genes involved in this developmental process were identified.Consequently,this study explained the developmental dynamic on the varied annual shoots through multi-omics,providing a theoretical foundation for germplasm innovation and the mechanized harvesting of tree peony annual shoots.展开更多
The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yiel...The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.展开更多
The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea ...The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.展开更多
基金supported by the University of Buenos Aires(UBACyT,20020090200117)CONICET(PIP112-200901-00011)grants to GJF.
文摘Identifying factors affecting the survival of individuals is essential for understanding the evolution of life-history traits and population dynamics.Despite numerous studies on this subject in north-temperate environments,there is a lack of equivalent studies at similar latitudes in the south.Here,we used a 14-year dataset of capture,banding,and resighting to estimate the annual variation in the apparent adult survival probability of a south-temperate population of House Wrens(Troglodytes aedon bonariae).We evaluated temporal variation in sur-vival and the effect of environmental(climatic)and demographic variables(adult abundance,total number of fledglings produced during each breeding season)on survival estimators.We found that the probability of adult survival decreased as the abundance of breeding adults increased.This density-dependent effect could be related to the resident lifestyle of southern House Wrens,which could determine an intense competition for territories and resources that ultimately would affect their survival.
基金This research was funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720200)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Planning Project(23ZDFA018)+4 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Project No.2022YFF1303301)the“Light of West China”Program of CAS(Project Nos.xbzglzb202020,23JR6KA008)Science and technology project of Gansu Province(Project No.21JR7RA046)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Project No.52179026)the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Computer Science(Project No.SKLCS 2020–05).
文摘The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management.Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018,this study examines the annual change characteristics of monthly runoff of the Shiyang River Basin,Heihe River Basin,and Shule River Basin in the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China.Many indexes are used and analyzed,including the coefficient of variance,the complete regulation coefficient,the concentration degree and concentration period,the magnitude of change,the skewness coefficient,and the kurtosis coefficient of the annual distribution curves.The results reveal the following:(1)The inhomogeneity of annual runoff distribution in the Taolai River and the rivers to the west of it,except the Shiyou River,show an increasing trend.Conversely,the inhomogeneity of the rivers to the east of the Taolai River generally show a downward trend,but the coefficient of variance value is still very high.(2)In the Shiyang River Basin,the annual distribution of the concentration period is characterized by a relatively discrete pattern.Conversely,the Heihe River Basin exhibits a relatively concentrated pattern,and the distribution pattern of the Shule River Basin is quite different.Notably,all concentration periods in the three basins have shifted backward after the 2000s.(3)The Shiyang River Basin exhibits disordered annual distribution curves of runoff in different years.In contrast,the Heihe River Basin presents a typical‘single-peak’pattern with a prominent right-skewed.The Shule River Basin has regular distribution curves,with a gradually significant‘double-peak’pattern from east to west.Overall,there has been a slight change in runoff in the Shiyang River Basin,while the Heihe River Basin and Shule River Basin have experienced significant increases in runoff.The annual distribution curves of runoff in the Liyuan River and the rivers to the east of it exhibit a gentle peak pattern,and the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is low.Conversely,the rivers to the west of the Liyuan River,excluding the Danghe River,display a sharp peak and thick tail pattern,indicating that the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is high.These findings have practical implications for the planning and management of water resources in the Hexi Corridor.Moreover,they provide a solid foundation for predicting future changes in regional water resources.
文摘A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received several treatments with various amendments for different periods ranging from 9 to 17 months. The amendments included annual ryegrass or Festulolium residues, powder limestone and various humate compounds alone or in combination with the grass residues. The results suggested a significant effect of ryegrass and Festulolium in reducing penetration resistance into the top 10 cm of the fragipan within 9 - 17 months, particularly when used in combination with certain humate materials such as Leonardite. Apparently, this is the result of the release of certain soluble organic compounds from the plant residues or the humate amendments that increase the solubility of Si and Al associated with the fragipan brittleness, thus decreasing the density of the compacted fragipan material.
基金We acknowledge the support from the Phosphorus and Potassium Institute in Canada with China scheme (Canada-Sino Cooperation Project: HN- 13) and from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (30270770).
文摘The article deals with the effects of urea and controlled release nitrogen fertilizer (CRNF) on dynamics of pH, electronic conductivity (EC), total nitrogen (TN), NH4^+-N and NO3 -N in floodwater, and the regulation of runoff TN loss from paddy field-based two-cropping rice in Dongting Lake, China, and probes the best fertilization management for controlling N loss. Studies were conducted through modeling alluvial sandy loamy paddy soil (ASP) and purple calcareous clayey paddy soil (PCP) using lysimeter, following the sequence of the soil profiles identified by investigating soil profile. After application of urea in paddy field-based two-cropping rice, TN and NHa+-N concentrations in floodwater reached peak on the 1st and the 3rd day, respectively, and then decreased rapidly over time; all the floodwater NO3--N concentrations were very low; the pH of floodwater gradually rose in case of early rice within 15 d (late rice within 3 d) after application of urea, and EC remained consistent with the dynamics of NH4^+-N. The applied CRNF, especially 70% CRNF, led to significantly lower floodwater TN and NH4^+ concentrations, pH, and EC values compared with urea within 15 d after application. The monitoring result for N loss due to natural rainfall runoff indicated that the amount of TN lost in runoff from paddy field- based two-cropping rice with urea application in Dongting Lake area was 7.47 kg ha^-1, which accounted for 2.49% of urea- N applied, and that with CRNF and 70% CRNF application decreased 24.5 and 27.2% compared with urea application, respectively. The two runoff events, which occurred within 20 d after application, contributed significantly to TN loss from paddy field. TN loss due to the two runoffs in urea, CRNF, and 70% CRNF treatments accounted for 72, 70, and 58% of the total TN loss due to runoff over the whole rice growth season, respectively. And the TN loss in these two CRNF treatments due to the first run-off event at the 10th day after application to early rice decreased 44.9 and 44.2% compared with urea, respectively. In conclusion, the 15-d period after application of urea was the critical time during which N loss occurred due to high floodwater N concentrations. But CRNF decreased N concentrations greatly in floodwater and runoff water during this period. As a result, it obviously reduced TN loss in runoff over the whole rice growth season.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Specialized Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorological Sector)(GYHY201306004)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)Project of Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau for Science and Technology(2013A04)Science and Technology Plan for the 12th Five-Year of Social and Economic Development(2012BAC22B00)
文摘An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075040,41475102)"973"project for typhoon(2015CB452802)+1 种基金CMA Special Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406009)Public Welfare(Meteorological Sector)Research Fund(GYHY201406003)
文摘A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.
基金973 Program(2015CB453202)Specific Project on Public Fields(GYHY201406024)+2 种基金Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(41330425)Third-level Talent Training Project of the Fourth"333 project"in Jiangsu ProvincePriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.
基金Project of Science and Technology Program of Guangdong (2006B37202004)Key project of Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou (2007Z1-E0101)+2 种基金Project of Science and Technology Programof Guangdong (2009A030302012)Specialized Project for Forecasters of Promotion of New Technology of China Meteorological Administration (CMATG2007Y04)Project of Guangdong Meteorlogical Bureau(2008A02)
文摘Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.
基金Research on the Evolutionary Patterns of Droughts and Floods in Guangxi Under the Conditions of Climate Warming, a Guangxi Young Scientists project (0542001)Soft Science Project from China Meteorological Administration (2008012)Research and Technical Development for Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences (200713)
文摘Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(grant XDA23080601).
文摘The development of tree peony annual shoots is characterized by“withering”,which is related to whether there are bud points in the leaf axillaries of annual shoots.However,the mechanism of“withering”in tree peony is still unclear.In this study,Paeonia ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’were used to investigate dynamic changes of annual shoots through anatomy,physiology,transcriptome,and metabolome.The results demonstrated that the developmental dynamics of annual shoots of the two cultivars were comparable.The withering degree of P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’was higher than that of P.ostii‘Fengdan’,and their upper internodes of annual flowering shoots had a lower degree of lignin deposition,cellulose,C/N ratio,showing no obvious sclerenchyma,than the bottom ones and the whole internodes of vegetative shoot,which resulted in the“withering”of upper internodes.A total of 36 phytohormone metabolites were detected,of which 33 and 31 were detected in P.ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’,respectively.In addition,302 and 240 differentially expressed genes related to lignin biosynthesis,carbon and nitrogen metabolism,plant hormone signal transduction,and zeatin biosynthesis were screened from the two cultivars.Furtherly,36 structural genes and 40 transcription factors associated with the development of annual shoots were highly co-expressed,and eight hub genes involved in this developmental process were identified.Consequently,this study explained the developmental dynamic on the varied annual shoots through multi-omics,providing a theoretical foundation for germplasm innovation and the mechanized harvesting of tree peony annual shoots.
文摘The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.
文摘The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.