Annual variation of adult survival of a south-temperate House Wren population in Argentina

Identifying factors affecting the survival of individuals is essential for understanding the evolution of life-history traits and population dynamics.Despite numerous studies on this subject in north-temperate environments,there is a lack of equivalent studies at similar latitudes in the south.Here,we used a 14-year dataset of capture,banding,and resighting to estimate the annual variation in the apparent adult survival probability of a south-temperate population of House Wrens(Troglodytes aedon bonariae).We evaluated temporal variation in sur-vival and the effect of environmental(climatic)and demographic variables(adult abundance,total number of fledglings produced during each breeding season)on survival estimators.We found that the probability of adult survival decreased as the abundance of breeding adults increased.This density-dependent effect could be related to the resident lifestyle of southern House Wrens,which could determine an intense competition for territories and resources that ultimately would affect their survival.

The changes in the annual distribution of mountain runoff during the period of 1965-2018 in Hexi Corridor,Northwest China

The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management.Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018,this study examines the annual change characteristics of monthly runoff of the Shiyang River Basin,Heihe River Basin,and Shule River Basin in the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China.Many indexes are used and analyzed,including the coefficient of variance,the complete regulation coefficient,the concentration degree and concentration period,the magnitude of change,the skewness coefficient,and the kurtosis coefficient of the annual distribution curves.The results reveal the following:(1)The inhomogeneity of annual runoff distribution in the Taolai River and the rivers to the west of it,except the Shiyou River,show an increasing trend.Conversely,the inhomogeneity of the rivers to the east of the Taolai River generally show a downward trend,but the coefficient of variance value is still very high.(2)In the Shiyang River Basin,the annual distribution of the concentration period is characterized by a relatively discrete pattern.Conversely,the Heihe River Basin exhibits a relatively concentrated pattern,and the distribution pattern of the Shule River Basin is quite different.Notably,all concentration periods in the three basins have shifted backward after the 2000s.(3)The Shiyang River Basin exhibits disordered annual distribution curves of runoff in different years.In contrast,the Heihe River Basin presents a typical‘single-peak’pattern with a prominent right-skewed.The Shule River Basin has regular distribution curves,with a gradually significant‘double-peak’pattern from east to west.Overall,there has been a slight change in runoff in the Shiyang River Basin,while the Heihe River Basin and Shule River Basin have experienced significant increases in runoff.The annual distribution curves of runoff in the Liyuan River and the rivers to the east of it exhibit a gentle peak pattern,and the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is low.Conversely,the rivers to the west of the Liyuan River,excluding the Danghe River,display a sharp peak and thick tail pattern,indicating that the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is high.These findings have practical implications for the planning and management of water resources in the Hexi Corridor.Moreover,they provide a solid foundation for predicting future changes in regional water resources.

Fragipan Horizon Changes Using Annual Ryegrass and Other Admendments

A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received several treatments with various amendments for different periods ranging from 9 to 17 months. The amendments included annual ryegrass or Festulolium residues, powder limestone and various humate compounds alone or in combination with the grass residues. The results suggested a significant effect of ryegrass and Festulolium in reducing penetration resistance into the top 10 cm of the fragipan within 9 - 17 months, particularly when used in combination with certain humate materials such as Leonardite. Apparently, this is the result of the release of certain soluble organic compounds from the plant residues or the humate amendments that increase the solubility of Si and Al associated with the fragipan brittleness, thus decreasing the density of the compacted fragipan material.

Study of Dynamics of Floodwater Nitrogen and Regulation of Its Runoff Loss in Paddy Field-Based Two-Cropping Rice with Urea and Controlled Release Nitrogen Fertilizer Application

The article deals with the effects of urea and controlled release nitrogen fertilizer （CRNF） on dynamics of pH, electronic conductivity （EC）, total nitrogen （TN）, NH4^＋-N and NO3 -N in floodwater, and the regulation of runoff TN loss from paddy field-based two-cropping rice in Dongting Lake, China, and probes the best fertilization management for controlling N loss. Studies were conducted through modeling alluvial sandy loamy paddy soil （ASP） and purple calcareous clayey paddy soil （PCP） using lysimeter, following the sequence of the soil profiles identified by investigating soil profile. After application of urea in paddy field-based two-cropping rice, TN and NHa＋-N concentrations in floodwater reached peak on the 1st and the 3rd day, respectively, and then decreased rapidly over time; all the floodwater NO3--N concentrations were very low; the pH of floodwater gradually rose in case of early rice within 15 d （late rice within 3 d） after application of urea, and EC remained consistent with the dynamics of NH4^＋-N. The applied CRNF, especially 70% CRNF, led to significantly lower floodwater TN and NH4^＋ concentrations, pH, and EC values compared with urea within 15 d after application. The monitoring result for N loss due to natural rainfall runoff indicated that the amount of TN lost in runoff from paddy field- based two-cropping rice with urea application in Dongting Lake area was 7.47 kg ha^-1, which accounted for 2.49% of urea- N applied, and that with CRNF and 70% CRNF application decreased 24.5 and 27.2% compared with urea application, respectively. The two runoff events, which occurred within 20 d after application, contributed significantly to TN loss from paddy field. TN loss due to the two runoffs in urea, CRNF, and 70% CRNF treatments accounted for 72, 70, and 58% of the total TN loss due to runoff over the whole rice growth season, respectively. And the TN loss in these two CRNF treatments due to the first run-off event at the 10th day after application to early rice decreased 44.9 and 44.2% compared with urea, respectively. In conclusion, the 15-d period after application of urea was the critical time during which N loss occurred due to high floodwater N concentrations. But CRNF decreased N concentrations greatly in floodwater and runoff water during this period. As a result, it obviously reduced TN loss in runoff over the whole rice growth season.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF ASSIMILATING RADAR-RETRIEVED WATER VAPOR IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF RAINFALL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA

A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.

INFLUENCES OF LOW-FREQUENCY MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ON LOW FREQUENCY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OF SOUTH CHINA IN 2010

85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.

ANALYSES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD-CAUSING RAINSTORMS IN XIJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON IN THE PAST YEARS

Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OF GUANGXI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF INDIAN OCEAN IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.

Histology, physiology, and transcriptomic and metabolomic profiling reveal the developmental dynamics of annual shoots in tree peonies (Paeonia suffruticosa Andr.)

The development of tree peony annual shoots is characterized by“withering”,which is related to whether there are bud points in the leaf axillaries of annual shoots.However,the mechanism of“withering”in tree peony is still unclear.In this study,Paeonia ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’were used to investigate dynamic changes of annual shoots through anatomy,physiology,transcriptome,and metabolome.The results demonstrated that the developmental dynamics of annual shoots of the two cultivars were comparable.The withering degree of P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’was higher than that of P.ostii‘Fengdan’,and their upper internodes of annual flowering shoots had a lower degree of lignin deposition,cellulose,C/N ratio,showing no obvious sclerenchyma,than the bottom ones and the whole internodes of vegetative shoot,which resulted in the“withering”of upper internodes.A total of 36 phytohormone metabolites were detected,of which 33 and 31 were detected in P.ostii‘Fengdan’and P.suffruticosa‘Luoyanghong’,respectively.In addition,302 and 240 differentially expressed genes related to lignin biosynthesis,carbon and nitrogen metabolism,plant hormone signal transduction,and zeatin biosynthesis were screened from the two cultivars.Furtherly,36 structural genes and 40 transcription factors associated with the development of annual shoots were highly co-expressed,and eight hub genes involved in this developmental process were identified.Consequently,this study explained the developmental dynamic on the varied annual shoots through multi-omics,providing a theoretical foundation for germplasm innovation and the mechanized harvesting of tree peony annual shoots.

Detecting Climate Change Trend, Size, and Change Point Date on Annual Maximum Time Series Rainfall Data for Warri, Nigeria

The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.

The Inter-Annual Variability of Rainfall Onset and Its Implication on Crop Planting in Selected East Africa Countries

The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.

基于第十三代国际地磁参考场模型在中国区域特征分析与研究

根据最新的第十三代国际地磁参考场模型(IGRF13),计算了2015—2020年中国区域地磁场模型七要素长期变化速率,并在此基础上分析我国区域地磁场长期变化特征。通过分析计算我国28个地磁台的IGRF13模型值与实际地磁场的长期变化速率、差值及均方误差,结果显示:IGRF13模型所显示的地磁场长期变化与我国区域地磁场实际观测变化基本一致,但在局部区域也存在差异,IGRF13模型能够体现中国区域地磁场的特征。应用IGRF13模型数据时需要考虑局部区域与台站实际观测数据的误差。

基于地球河流扇预测模型的火星地表水径流量预测

【目的】火星表面的水活动地质历史一直是科学界关心的热点,直接影响着火星探测的研究方向。【方法】根据火星和地球的可对比性,建立了融合345个地球现代河流扇沉积的数据集并形成了高精度扇体面积预测模型,从而识别火星上的河流扇沉积,预测火星河流扇发育期的地表水径流量。【结果】结果表示,在火星南部高地霍尔顿陨石坑附近识别出一个面积约84.35 km^(2)的典型河流扇沉积,并反向预测出该扇体形成需要的年平均地表水径流量为1.8828×10^(6)m^(3),推测出该区域径流量不是由单一降水构成,为雪山(冰川)融水和降水多种来源。【结论】该成果是河流扇研究在行星沉积学中的应用,为进一步深入研究火星和其他天体地表水活动提供了新的方法。

OSCE在儿科规培年度考核的应用

目的探讨客观结构化临床考试(OSCE)在儿科住院医师规范化培训(以下简称“规培”)年度考核中的应用价值。方法选取2018年一、二年级规培学员67人及2019年二、三年级规培学员67人(与2018年相同的规培学员、只是年级产生变化)。设2018年一年级规培学员为A组、二年级规培学员为B组,那么2019年二年级规培学员为A组、三年级规培学员为B组。对2018年及2019年A组、B组规培学员进行OSCE年度考核,进行成绩分析、问卷调查并开展点评会。结果2018年A组学员各站成绩及考试总成绩低于2018年B组学员,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),2019年A组学员总成绩较2018年A组明显提升,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);2019年A组总成绩和2019年B组比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),2019年B组总成绩与2018年B组比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。考官及学员对OSCE考核形式100%满意,各考站设置合理,试卷难易程度适度;带教老师及规培管理人员100%肯定点评会发现教学及管理工作中的不足之处。结论规培学员低年级学习成绩提升速度最快、高年级能达到规培标准,OSCE在年度考核中的应用可以全面考查学员本年度专业知识及临床实践操作的掌握情况,同时也可以综合测评基地规培管理及临床带教工作,值得推广应用。

“妃子笑”荔枝高产若干生长发育性状

“妃子笑”荔枝是我国栽培区域最广的荔枝品种,比较研究不同区域“妃子笑”生长发育特性可为树冠、养分管理和成花着果调控及区域适应性发展等参考,为荔枝品种制订高产和克服“大小年”技术方案提供借鉴。2008—2022年,调查统计华南六省(区)北纬18°32′~28°47′的24县(区)39个示范园“妃子笑”物候期;于始花期调查海南、广东、广西和云南省(区)18个果园“妃子笑”结果树枝条、叶片和花穗生长量,并取样分析枝条、叶片、花穗主要养分含量,计算植株不同部位营养需求量。结果表明,主产区“妃子笑”末次秋梢成熟期8月下旬至11月中旬,现“白点”(花穗原基)期11月下旬至翌年2月中旬,盛花期2月上旬至4月上旬,果实成熟期4月下旬至7月底。3次秋梢生长分别约为35.9、39.5和40.2 d,秋梢老熟至现花穗原基(花诱导)约87 d,花穗与花芽分化期约56 d,果实发育期约需63 d。海南等地区“妃子笑”采果后树冠重回缩修剪至1.5 m高,形成矮化树形,而粤西等地修剪至2~3 m高,塑造高大树形。“妃子笑”结果植株采果后秋梢生长1~3次,树冠表面积的平均枝梢数16条/m2,秋梢平均长度37.7 cm,秋梢复叶数17片、叶片数104片。“妃子笑”单株不同部位年生长量,以鲜质量计分别为秋梢枝条16.8 kg,叶片40.2 kg,花穗17.2 kg;以干质量计为秋梢枝条9.50 kg,叶片23.24kg,花穗7.19kg。主要养分含量为秋梢枝条中氮0.76%、磷0.26%、钾0.72%、钙0.54%、镁0.15%;叶片中氮1.79%、磷0.17%、钾0.94%、钙0.77%、镁0.25%;花穗中氮2.20%、磷0.30%、钾1.74%、钙0.32%、镁0.29%。单株50 kg的产量,年度枝叶、花穗和果实生长所需主要元素为氮0.70 kg、磷0.10 kg、钾0.46 kg,秋梢期氮、磷、钾用量分别占比全年用量的71.4%、70.0%、63.0%。从多年产量稳定性看,海南省陵水县、琼海市、海口市,广西北海铁山港区、合浦县,广东省廉江市等地是“妃子笑”适应性表现较好的栽培区。综合而言,随着纬度北移和海拔升高,“妃子笑”物候期延后,果实成熟期持续3个月以上;各地区“妃子笑”物候期相差较大的是末次秋梢成熟期和果实成熟期,差异较小的是花芽诱导期;枝叶养分需求较大,确保秋梢生长量是支撑产量和品质的重要基础。

断层虚位错模式揭示的2022年1月8日青海门源M_(S)6.9地震前的地电阻率变化

选取2022年1月8日青海门源M_(S)6.9地震震中400 km范围内四个地电阻率观测台站的观测精度高、具有稳态年变、震前无显著干扰的地电阻率ρ_(s)观测数据,结合ERA5同化数据集中的多层土壤温度和土壤水分含量,在利用多项式拟合获取各台站(或测道)地电阻率正常年动态的基础上,分析了门源地震前地电阻率的异常变化。结果显示:金银滩台EW测道、武威台NS测道和山丹台EW测道、N45°W测道震前存在超阈值的异常变化,并呈现各向异性特征。基于断层虚位错模式分析了地电阻率异常变化与孕震过程之间的联系,结果表明:金银滩台震前处于压缩区并受到NNE方向的挤压,与主压应变近似正交的EW测道于震前10个月出现负异常;同样位于压缩区的武威台,受到了ENE向的挤压,NS测道的地电阻率在孕震早期(震前13个月)以负异常为主,孕震中晚期(震前3个月)出现了正异常;山丹台,位于膨胀区,受到近似NS向的拉张,与主张应变平行的NS测道未发现异常,但EW测道震前一年地电阻率出现正异常,N45°W测道的地电阻率也在震前半年左右出现超阈值并呈正异常。此外,金银滩台、山丹台和武威台距离门源地震震中的距离分别为92 km,113 km和139 km,相应的地电阻率异常最大变化幅值分别为−3.0σ,2.2σ和−2.1σ。此外,门源地震前地电阻率异常变化的时空特征与岩石实验结果及理论模型一致,也符合震源区应力应变积累程度较高、向外围方向逐渐衰减的分布特征。由此推断,2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震前地电阻率的时空变化可能与区域介质变形及应力变化有关。

董事会非正式层级如何影响管理层年报语调操纵?

非正式层级是董事会发挥监督及治理作用的隐性因素,而这一隐性治理机制对于年报文本信息披露的影响及作用机理仍鲜有研究。本文利用2010—2021年沪深A股非金融上市公司数据,在理论分析的基础上实证检验董事会非正式层级对管理层年报文本语调操纵的影响。研究结论表明:更为清晰的非正式层级有助于董事会高效行使治理与监督职能,进而能够对管理层操纵年报文本语调发挥抑制效应;从作用机理上看,抑制效应可能通过协调代理关系、增强披露意愿及扩大资源掌控等作用路径得以实现;此外,从横截面检验结果看,抑制效应因受到来自董事会及企业特质层面的一系列异质性因素影响而呈现出差异化表现。

黄土高原径流侵蚀功率输沙模型的改进

水土流失对流域生态危害严重,输沙量模拟和预测可以为流域水土流失防治提供依据,因此精确的输沙模型是流域水土流失治理的重要工具。为了精确模拟变化环境下黄土高原年输沙量,该研究基于黄土高原19个水文站的径流和输沙数据,通过随机森林变量重要性度量方法评估年径流侵蚀功率、淤地坝指数、淤地坝相对指数、归一化植被指数、不透水地面积等因子对流域年输沙量的影响,使用非线性最小二乘法估算年输沙模型参数,对比分析不同因子组合的年输沙模型精度,提出适用性较强的黄土高原年输沙模型,据此开展年输沙量变化贡献率分析。结果表明:1)以幂函数形式构建的仅含径流侵蚀功率单因子输沙模型精度与流域面积有显著的负相关关系,相关系数为-0.505(P<0.05),模型精度随着流域面积增大而下降,在面积大于7000 km^(2)的流域适用性较差;2)年径流侵蚀功率、淤地坝指数及不透水地面积因子组合建立的多因子年输沙模型在黄土高原适用性最佳,模型在率定期纳什效率系数平均值为0.84,均方根误差平均值为0.21亿t,在验证期纳什系数平均值为0.79,均方根误差平均值为0.27亿t。3)影响研究流域年输沙量变化的因素依次是:年径流侵蚀功率、不透水地面积和淤地坝指数。研究可以为黄土高原不同区域水土流失防治和生态治理工作提供理论支撑。

一种基于多目标优化的独立微电网容量配置方法

针对独立型微电网容量配置存在经济成本和供电可靠性难以实现同时最优的问题,提出一种实现经济成本和供电可靠性最优的独立型微电网容量多目标优化配置方法。根据独立型风光储微电网系统中各分布式电源的机理构建风机、光伏、磷酸铁锂电池的数学模型,以等年值投资成本为评估指标构建独立微电网经济成本模型,功率偏差为评估指标构建出基于层次分析法的独立微电网可靠性模型,使用非支配排序的多目标粒子群算法求解系统最优容量配置。算例结果表明,该方法对独立型微电网容量配置在同时实现供电可靠性和经济性上更有优越性。