Dynamic Evaluation of Land Ecological Security in Anhui Province Based on PSR Model

Based on PSR framework method, the land ecological security evaluation index system of 16 cities of Anhui Province was constructed. The land ecological security value of subsystem in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2011 was calculated using the index weight which was determined by the entropy weight method, and land ecological security trend from 2012 to 2017 was forecasted using GM （1,1） model. The results indicated that, the land ecological security index in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2017 was rising on the whole, with the average value increasing from 0.442 in 2000 to 0.450 in 2017, and there was a huge difference among cities; at the same time, the state index and response index of each subsystem of land ecological security also rose. GM （ 1, 1 ） model had high simulation precision and was able to predict the land ecological security level and the de- velopment trend of each subsystem of Anhui Province from 2012 to 2017. The main factors that influenced the land ecological security of Anhui Prov- ince included per capita farmland area, population density, natural growth rate of population, urbanization level, soil coordination degree, agricultur- al mechanization degree, and the area proportion of nature reserve, which are the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future.

The dynamics of landscape-scale ecological connectivity based on least-cost model in Dongshan Island,China

As a hot topic in Landscape Ecology study,ecological connectivity is an important indicator for regional land sustainable use and biological protection. This paper conducted a systematic assessment of ecological connectivity using remote sensing images of Dongshan Island in 1994, 2003 and2011. Based on least-cost modelling, the method takes into consideration the type of barrier, the distance impact, and the adjacent land use types to obtain the Barrier Effect Index(BEI) and Ecological Connectivity Index(ECI). The application of this method to Dongshan Island showed the ecological connectivity index(ECI) was low in 1994, improved in 2003, and decreased significantly in 2011. The results of the dynamic analysis of landscape structure showed farmland and roads were the main landscape classes that caused the low observed ECI in 1994 and 2003;these tended to divide the landscape and cause fragmentation. Construction land and roads were the main landscape classes resulting in low ECI in 2011,while forest and grassland had a high ECI. Trajectory analysis showed ECI tended to decrease in the low mountain forest zone of the northwestern and southeastern parts of Dongshan Island as well as in the coastal protection forest area. The areas where ECI became high were located in the northeastern part of Dongshan Island where cities and towns are concentrated with high human populations.Therefore, rapid urbanization has been the most important factor driving changes in landscape structure and patterns during the last 17 years on Dongshan Island. The approach not only assists us in revealing the driving mechanism of landscape dynamics from another aspect, but also can assess the impacts of regional and urban plans on landscape structure and function.

Exergy and ecological modelling of lake environment

The thermodynamic theories and ecological theories can be integrated effectively by exergy(biogeochemical energy of the system) to study the environmental problems of the lakes and reservoirs. In this paper, the applications of exergy in the ecological modelling of lake environment were reviewed. Results showed that exergy can be used as a goal function to estimate the parameters of the ecological model for lakes and reservoirs and to develop the structural dynamic models accounting for the changes in lake ecosystems, and as an ecological indicators for the development and evolution of lake ecosystems.

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL OF ECOLOGICAL DEMONSTRATION AREA

Ecological demonstration area (EDA) is an authorized nomination, which should be assessed from several aspects, including ecological, social, environmental, economic ones and so on. It is difficult to advance an exact developing level index of EDA due to its indicator system’s complexity and disequilibrium. In this paper, a framework of indicators was set to evaluate, monitor and examine the comprehensive level of ecological demonstration area (EDA). Fuzzy logic method was used to develop the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM), which could quantitatively reveal the developing degree of EDA. Huiji District of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, one of the 9th group of national EDAs, was taken as a study case. The framework of FCEM for the integrated system included six subsystems, which were social, economic, ecological, rural, urban and accessorial description ones. The research would be valuable in the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of EDA and would work as a guide in the construction practices of Huiji ecological demonstration area.

The Application of Ecosystem Dynamic Model in Xiamen Bay

This paper is to establish a nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients cycle-based numerical model of ecological dynamics for Xiamen Bay on the basis of the existing three-dimensional barocline hydrodynamic model. The calculation results show that the estuarine district of Jiulongjiang estuary has the highest inorganic nitrogen concentration followed by the West Harbor, which demonstrates that Jiulongjiang River is the main input source of inorganic nitrogen in Xiamen Bay. The West Harbor has relatively high concentration of nutrients caused by the huge land pollution emission and its own poor water exchange capacity; while the distribution rules of phytoplankton biomass correspond with those of phosphates, demonstrating Xiamen Bay＇s phytoplankton controlled by phosphorus; the haloplankton biomass differs slightly, presenting the gradual reduction from the interior part to the exterior part of the bay.

Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay

Bayesian networks （BN） have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling （SEM）. In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model＇s accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Multiple Scenarios Simulation of Global Ecological Footprint Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Method

A nonlinear dynamic simulative model has been discussed with variable cycles of entire world per capita ecological footprint taken from 1961 to 2003. The model was further classified and decomposed and extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. To deal with the problems proposed in the Living Planet Report 2006, three ecological footprint scenarios are presented. Simulative numerical values of the three global per capita (GPC) ecological footprint scenarios are also analyzed based on the simulative model. The results show that: 1) The clear varying cycle of global per capita EF growth is 4.6 years, 9.5 years, 19.5 years and 41 years over the last 42 years;2) According to the business-as-usual scenario, if the global per capita increases positively with the constant growth, it is expected that GPC EF would be 3.262 gha in 2050. Assuming global per capita biocapacity (BC) to be 1.236 gha, global per capita ecological deficit (ED) would increase from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 2.026 gha in 2050;3) The slow-shift scenario shows global per capita EF would decrease from 2.23 gha in 2003 to 1.619 gha in 2080 and 1.406 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate of it is 0.447 percent. Global per capita ED would decrease from 0.4 gha in 2003 to 0.222 gha in 2080 and 0.038 gha in 2100, if global per capita BC is 1.397 gha;4) The rapid-reduction scenario depicts global per capita EF would decrease to 1.414 gha in 2050, if the negative annual change rate is 0.842% from 2003 to 2050. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.461 gha, global per capita ecological reserve (ER) would be 0.047 gha, and overshoot would be eliminated in 2050. Global per capita EF would decrease to 1.054 gha in 2100, if the negative annual change rate is 0.438% from 2050 to 2100. Assuming global per capita BC to be 1.474 gha, GPC ER would be 0.420 gha. Then, wild species of the planet will be allocated nearly 28.5% of the planet’s biological productivity, which coincides with the results of Living Planet Report 2006.

Spatiotemporal analysis and multiple scenarios prediction of sustainable ecosystem in China based on ecological footprint method

Dynamic changes of sustainable ecosystem in China have been assessed with long-term series from 1949 to 2006, and the ecosystem sustainability of 30 provinces in 1986, 1996, 2002 and 2006 are analyzed with ecological footprint index (EFI) and ecological footprint efficiency (EFE). The two indices are proposed based on ecological footprint (EF) method. Then, the fluctuant cycles of per capita EF and bicapacity (BC) in China 1949-2006 are decomposed and extracted based on EMD method, and series nonlinear dynamic predictive models are presented with the cycles. Three Forecasting scenarios are analyzed based on their predictive models according to three EF scenarios presented in Living Planet Report 2006 published by WWF et al.(2006). Over last 57 years, China’s EFI has reduced sharply with fluctuation. The change of EFE is very slowly before 1980, subsequently, is sharply increased. There are 6, 5, 12, and 7 provinces which are running ecological surplus in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. There are 14, 16, 11, and 16 provinces which EFI are smaller than -100% in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. The provinces with the highest EFE are Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, and the lowest are Xinjiang, Guizhou, Hainan, Ningxia, et al. in 1986, 1996, 2002, and 2006, respectively. The obvious undulation cycles of per capita EF in China are 4.8 years and 10.9 years, and the periods of per capita BC are 3.03 years, 8.35 years, 14.25 years, and 28.15 years. The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita ED would be 11.200hm2 and EFI would be -1307.19% in China in 2050. The slow-shift scenario shows per capita ED would be 0.728hm2 and EFI would be -84.96% in 2050. The rapid-reduce scenario shows per capita ED in China would be 0.498hm2 in 2050 and 0.261hm2 in 2100, respectively. EFI of rapid-reduce scenario would be -58.11% in 2050. China could denote sustainability at the global level if slow-shift scenario and rapid-reduce scenario are implemented.

Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.

OPTIMIZED DESIGN OF NATURAL ECOLOGICAL WASTEWATER TREATMENT SYSTEM BASED ON WATER ENVIRONMENT MODEL OF DYNAMIC MESH TECHNIQUE

A Natural Ecological Wastewater Treatment System （NEWTS） is usually built on natural terrain with necessary topography modification to improve water flowing route and pattern, and then the topography modified NEWTS should also have a reasonable water storage volume and hydraulic retention time so as to achieve the anticipated water purification effect. In this study, the dynamic mesh technique based on the finite element method and element storativity coefficients was presented to develop a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, which was used to optimize the design of NEWTS under the dynamic land-water boundary due to various water storage volume. The models were employed in the optimized design of NEWTS from a large abandoned coal mine, which purifies the polluted water flowing into a large water storage lake, as part of the East Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China. Specifically, the natural topography modification scheme was presented, and further, a reasonable water storage volume and hydraulic residence time was obtained, based on the reasonable estimation of roughness coefficient and pollutant removal rate of the NEWTS with phragmites communis.

Ecological dynamic model of grassland and its practical verification

Based on the physico-biophysical considerations, mathematical analysis and some approximate formulations generally adopted in meteorology and ecology, an ecological dynamic model of grassland is developed. The model consists of three interactive variables, I.e. The biomass of living grass, the biomass of wilted grass, and the soil wetness. The major biophysical processes are represented in parameterization formulas, and the model parameters can be determined inversely by using the observational climatological and ecological data. Some major parameters are adjusted by this method to fit the data (although incomplete) in the Inner Mongolia grassland, and other secondary parameters are estimated through sensitivity studies. The model results are well agreed with reality, e.g., (I) the maintenance of grassland requires a minimum amount of annual precipitation (approximately 300 mm); (ii) there is a significant relationship between the annual precipitation and the biomass of living grass; and (iii) the overgrazing will eventually result in desertification. A specific emphasis is put on the shading effect of the wilted grass accumulated on the soil surface. It effectively reduces the soil surface temperature and the evaporation, hence benefits the maintenance of grassland and the reduction of water loss in the soil.

Gap models across micro-to mega-scales of time and space:examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Background:Gap models are individual-based models for forests.They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions.Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales.Conceptually,they are with consistent with A.G.Tansley’s original definition of"the ecosystem".Results:An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change,air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds(VOC),and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s.Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles.VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees.Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming.Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa.In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges,community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses.This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function.As a mesoscale example,the changes in climate(warming)on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations.This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels.As this is the typical application scale for gap models,other examples are identified.The insect/climatechange can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone.Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region.Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions,but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects.Conclusions:At the global-scale,successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants,rather than tree species.In a final application,the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration,net primary production,gross primary production and respiration.New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

Delimiting Ecological Space and Simulating Spatial-temporal Changes in Its Ecosystem Service Functions based on a Dynamic Perspective: A Case Study on Qionglai City of Sichuan Province, China

Delimiting ecological space scientifically and making reasonable predictions of the spatial-temporal trend of changes in the dominant ecosystem service functions(ESFs) are the basis of constructing an ecological protection pattern of territorial space, which has important theoretical significance and application value. At present, most research on the identification, functional partitioning and pattern reconstruction of ecological space refers to the current ESFs and their structural information, which ignores the spatial-temporal dynamic nature of the comprehensive and dominant ESFs, and does not seriously consider the change simulation in the dominant ESFs of the future ecological space. This affects the rationality of constructing an ecological space protection pattern to some extent. In this study, we propose an ecological space delimitation method based on the dynamic change characteristics of the ESFs, realize the identification of the ecological space range in Qionglai City and solve the problem of ignoring the spatial-temporal changes of ESFs in current research. On this basis, we also apply the Markov-CA model to integrate the spatial-temporal change characteristics of the dominant ESFs, successfully realize the simulation of the spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City’s ecological space in 2025, find a suitable method for simulating ecological spatial-temporal changes and also provide a basis for constructing a reasonable ecological space protection pattern. This study finds that the comprehensive quantity of ESF and its annual rate of change in Qionglai City show obvious dynamics, which confirms the necessity of considering the dynamic characteristics of ESFs when identifying ecological space. The areas of ecological space in Qionglai city represent 98307 ha by using the ecological space identification method proposed in this study, which is consistent with the ecological spatial distribution in the local ecological civilization construction plan. This confirms the reliability of the ecological space identification method based on the dynamic characteristics of the ESFs. The results also show that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City represented strong non-stationary characteristics during 2003–2019,which showed that we should fully consider the influence of the dynamics in the dominant ESFs on the future ESF pattern during the process of constructing the ecological spatial protection pattern. The Markov-CA model realized the simulation of spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs with a high precision Kappa coefficient of above 0.95, which illustrated the feasibility of using this model to simulate the future dominant ESF spatial pattern. The simulation results showed that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai will still undergo mutual conversions during 2019–2025 due to the effect of the their non-stationary nature. The ecological space will still maintain the three dominant ESFs of primary product production, climate regulation and hydrological regulation in 2025, but their areas will change to 32793 ha, 52490 ha and 13024 ha, respectively. This study can serve as a scientific reference for the delimitation of the ecological conservation redline, ecological function regionalization and the construction of an ecological spatial protection pattern.

黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展研究

为推进中国式现代化建设,统筹黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,提升城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展水平,以黄河流域内的7个城市群为研究对象,构建新型城镇化与生态安全评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和相对发展模型,并结合时空演化过程分析了黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展格局,最后通过系统动力学模型模拟未来5年耦合协调发展趋势.结果表明,研究期内,黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,部分城市群出现轻度波动,耦合协调特征由失调、濒临协调转化为勉强协调、初级协调;最后通过预测未来5年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展过程,推断城市群均处于显著提升状态,且逐步达到初级协调阶段.针对目前黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展存在的不足,提出了相应的对策建议.

中国水产品贸易生态足迹时空演变与动态预测

国际贸易下的生态输入与输出在一定程度上会重新配置国家及地区之间的生态环境资源。中国在大力发展水产品贸易的同时,也面临着由此带来的生态资源损失等问题。基于生态足迹模型测算2001—2020年中国与35个主要国家和地区的水产品贸易生态足迹和生态净值进行现状评价,通过ArcGIS揭示生态净值的时空演变特征,并运用ARIMA模型预测其未来变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)中国水产品进口与出口生态足迹值较大,不同种类水产品贸易生态足迹值差距较大。(2)中国水产品贸易生态净值虽然近期呈现显著上升趋势,但整体生态净值态势不稳定,而且不同种类水产品贸易生态净值差别较大。(3)中国水产品贸易生态净值在时间维度上整体变化程度不高,但在空间维度上存在明显的异质性问题,并且集中程度变化较为明显。(4)中国水产品出口贸易生态足迹和进口贸易生态足迹主要国家分布基本保持稳定,但是少数主要国家变化明显,水产品出口贸易和进口贸易集中度均较高。(5)预测2021—2025年中国水产品出口和进口生态足迹处于明显不平衡状态,2025年中国水产品贸易生态净值空间分布依然存在明显的异质性问题。因此,本研究从优化水产品贸易结构、畅通产业双循环路径、提升海洋科技创新能力、深化多边贸易合作体制等不同维度提出优化中国水产品贸易生态足迹的相关对策建议,为中国水产品贸易可持续发展提供现实依据。

基于系统动力学模型的山东省水资源生态足迹预测

在资源环境可持续发展和生态文明建设得到重视的时代,水资源的供需均衡是衡量一个区域社会经济发展的重要因素,而与水资源有关的生态足迹相关概念被越来越多的专家和学者所采用,是一个具有关键意义的衡量指标。然而,在这方面的研究中,现有学者主要集中于现状的分析与探讨,缺乏对未来的预测。经济蓬勃、人口稠密的山东省存在由于社会经济的快速发展而导致的水资源供需紧张的问题,亟需寻求保障水资源和社会经济协调发展的可持续方案。根据水资源生态足迹模型和山东省水资源供需系统动力学模型,设计SD1 (维持现状)、SD2(发展经济)、SD3 (节约用水)和SD4 (综合开发)等情景对2022-2050年山东省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测。结果表明,2022-2050年情景SD1~SD4下山东省水资源的人均生态足迹的平均数值分别为0.408、0.447、0.319和0.412 hm^(2)/人,水资源的人均生态承载力的平均数值都为0.130 hm^(2)/人,由此导致0.278、0.317、0.189和0.282 hm^(2)/人的人均水资源生态亏损;水资源生态压力指数和水资源生态经济协调指数均值分别为3.149、3.458、2.466和3.188及1.257、1.242、1.304和1.259,山东省未来情景下水资源利用压力较大,不安全利用的状态将会持续。从水资源生态足迹的角度对4种情景进行比较,综合发展型情景SD4具有合适的评价指标,既能保证经济发展,也能减少水资源利用的不安全程度,山东省未来发展应采取此类情景,但同时要提高各行业用水效率、加强全社会节水意识,既“开源”又“节流”,才能保障水资源的可持续发展。

基于ARIMA模型的黄土高原河谷城市生态足迹动态模拟及测算——以甘肃省兰州市为例

为了从经济发展的角度探究生态足迹动态变化的成因,论文在测算黄土高原河谷城市——甘肃省兰州市2002—2014年人均生态足迹的发展轨迹的基础上,引入ARIMA模型,模拟预测了该市2015—2020年生态足迹变化趋势。研究结果显示:1)2002—2014年,甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹总体呈现上升态势,数值由2.70 hm^(2)增长至4.25 hm^(2),增幅达到1.57倍;2)从生态足迹增速看,2002—2014年人均生态足迹平均增速达到4.04%,同一时期兰州市地区生产总值平均增速为11.88%,较人均生态足迹增速高出7.84%,表明该地区经济发展的速度高于资源环境消耗的速度;3)2015—2020年甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹仍然呈现上升态势,预测值分别达到4.48 hm^(2)、4.61 hm^(2)、4.75 hm^(2)、4.89 hm^(2)、5.02 hm^(2)和5.17 hm^(2),甘肃省兰州市生态赤字逐年增大,总生态足迹是城市土地利用总面积的19.59倍,说明经济发展与地区生态需求呈现较强正相关性,环境库兹涅茨曲线“拐点”并未出现,处于不可持续发展状态。基于以上分析结果提出了甘肃省兰州市降低生态足迹的具体路径:1)实施产业结构调整,降低生态赤字,提升经济发展质量和可持续发展能力;2)推动绿色发展,构建生态类型多样、布局合理、功能完善的自然生态系统和城乡一体的生态网络,提高生态环境容量。

闽江流域生态效率时空动态演变及驱动因素研究

以闽江流域为研究对象,基于2011—2020年闽江流域面板数据,从环境影响、资源消耗、经济效益角度构建投入产出指标体系,采用考虑非期望产出超效率SBM模型和面板空间误差模型,揭示闽江流域生态效率时空演化特征及驱动机制。研究结果表明:闽江流域生态效率均值总体呈下降趋势,生态效率未达到有效水平县(市)占全样本的比重增加,生态效率出现极化现象并形成“低低集聚、高高集聚”空间格局;生态效率空间分布变化显著且存在空间自相关现象,低生态效率区域呈增加趋势,较高生态效率区域呈减少趋势,生态效率表现为下游>中游>上游的空间分布特征;人均地区生产总值对区域生态效率为正向驱动效应,科技水平、产业结构、政府宏观调控对区域生态效率为负向驱动效应。为此,在新发展格局下要推进闽江流域上游、中游、下游协同发展,优化配置创新资源,促进人才区域合理布局,提升流域整体生态效率。

辽东湾叶绿素a与营养盐分布特征的数值模拟

为探究辽东湾海域内叶绿素a与营养盐的时空分布特征及相互作用机理,基于数值模拟(Delft3D)方法构建了叶绿素a (Chl-a)、溶解氧(DO)、氨氮(NH_(4)^(+)-N)、硝酸盐氮(NO_(3)^(-)-N)和活性磷酸盐(PO_(4)^(3-)-P)等生态指标在辽东湾海域的生态动力学模型(Delft3D-ECO),并在验证模型的基础上分析了叶绿素a等生态指标浓度在辽东湾海域的时空变化和分布情况。结果表明:在季节变化上,叶绿素a质量浓度表现为秋季(4.83μg/L)>夏季(4.13μg/L)>春季(3.39μg/L),DO质量浓度表现为春季(9.41 mg/L)>夏季(7.26 mg/L)>秋季(5.84 mg/L),NO_(3)^(-)-N质量浓度表现为春季(0.76 mg/L)>秋季(0.56 mg/L)>夏季(0.50 mg/L),NH_(4)^(+)-N质量浓度表现为春季(0.039 mg/L)>秋季(0.030 mg/L)>夏季(0.026 mg/L),PO_(4)^(3-)-P质量浓度表现为秋季(0.025 mg/L)>夏季(0.020 mg/L)>春季(0.018 mg/L);在空间分布上,辽东湾海域中的叶绿素a、PO_(4)^(3-)-P(春、夏)、NO_(3)^(-)-N(春、夏)质量浓度分布呈东北高、西南低的特点,NH_(4)^(+)-N质量浓度呈研究区域湾顶与湾口高、中部低的特征。研究表明,辽东湾顶部的辽河、大辽河是影响辽东湾海域生态指标浓度时空分布的重要因素,辽东湾海域的营养盐限制作用表现为磷相对限制。