Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Cooperative Caching Strategy Based on Two-Layer Caching Model for Remote Sensing Satellite Networks

In Information Centric Networking(ICN)where content is the object of exchange,in-network caching is a unique functional feature with the ability to handle data storage and distribution in remote sensing satellite networks.Setting up cache space at any node enables users to access data nearby,thus relieving the processing pressure on the servers.However,the existing caching strategies still suffer from the lack of global planning of cache contents and low utilization of cache resources due to the lack of fine-grained division of cache contents.To address the issues mentioned,a cooperative caching strategy(CSTL)for remote sensing satellite networks based on a two-layer caching model is proposed.The two-layer caching model is constructed by setting up separate cache spaces in the satellite network and the ground station.Probabilistic caching of popular contents in the region at the ground station to reduce the access delay of users.A content classification method based on hierarchical division is proposed in the satellite network,and differential probabilistic caching is employed for different levels of content.The cached content is also dynamically adjusted by analyzing the subsequent changes in the popularity of the cached content.In the two-layer caching model,ground stations and satellite networks collaboratively cache to achieve global planning of cache contents,rationalize the utilization of cache resources,and reduce the propagation delay of remote sensing data.Simulation results show that the CSTL strategy not only has a high cache hit ratio compared with other caching strategies but also effectively reduces user request delay and server load,which satisfies the timeliness requirement of remote sensing data transmission.

Joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data for a two-layer model

Based on the synchronous joint gravity and magnetic inversion of single interface by Pilkington and the need of revealing Cenozoic and crystalline basement thickness in the new round of oil-gas exploration, we propose a joint gravity and magnetic inversion methodfor two-layer models by concentrating on the relationship between the change of thicknessI and position of the middle layer and anomaly and discuss the effects of the key parameters. Model tests and application to field data show the validity of this method.

Asymptotic solution of a weak nonlinear model for the mid-latitude stationary wind field of a two-layer barotropic ocean

A weak nonlinear model of a two-layer barotropic ocean with Rayleigh dissipation is built.The analytic asymptotic solution is derived in the mid-latitude stationary wind field,and the physical meaning of the corresponding problem is discussed.

Effect of the Coefficient on the Performance of A Two-Layer Boussinesq- Type Model

The coefficients embodied in a Boussinesq-type model are very important since they are determined to optimize the linear and nonlinear properties.In most conventional Boussinesq-type models,these coefficients are assigned the specific values.As for the multi-layer Boussinesq-type models with the inclusion of the vertical velocity,however,the effect of the different values of these coefficients on linear and nonlinear performances has never been investigated yet.The present study focuses on a two-layer Boussinesq-type model with the highest spatial derivatives being 2 and theoretically and numerically examines the effect of the coefficient on model performance.Theoretical analysis show that different values for(0.13≤α≤0.25)do not have great effects on the high accuracy of the linear shoaling,linear phase celerity and even third-order nonlinearity for water depth range of 0<kh≤10(k is wave number and h is water depth).The corresponding errors using different values are restricted within 0.1%,0.1%and 1%for the linear shoaling amplitude,dispersion and nonlinear harmonics,respectively.Numerical tests including regular wave shoaling over mildly varying slope from deep to shallow water,regular wave propagation over submerged bar,bichromatic wave group and focusing wave propagation over deep water are conducted.The comparison between numerical results using different values of,experimental data and analytical solutions confirm the theoretical analysis.The flexibility and consistency of the two-layer Boussinesq-type model is therefore demonstrated theoretically and numerically.

Noncooperative Model Predictive Game With Markov Jump Graph

In this paper,the distributed stochastic model predictive control(MPC)is proposed for the noncooperative game problem of the discrete-time multi-player systems(MPSs)with the undirected Markov jump graph.To reflect the reality,the state and input constraints have been considered along with the external disturbances.An iterative algorithm is designed such that model predictive noncooperative game could converge to the socalledε-Nash equilibrium in a distributed manner.Sufficient conditions are established to guarantee the convergence of the proposed algorithm.In addition,a set of easy-to-check conditions are provided to ensure the mean-square uniform bounded stability of the underlying MPSs.Finally,a numerical example on a group of spacecrafts is studied to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

An integrated MINLP model for multi-party coordination in downstream oil supply chain

Cooperation among enterprises can bring overall and individual performance improvement,and a smooth coordination method is indispensable.However,due to the lack of customized coordination methods,cooperation in the downstream oil supply chain cannot be carried out smoothly.This paper intends to propose a multi-party coordination method to promote cooperation between oil shippers and pipeline operator by optimizing oil transportation,oil substitution and pipeline pricing schemes.An integrated game-theoretic modeling and analysis approach is developed to characterize the operation behaviors of all stakeholders in the downstream oil supply chain.The proposed mixed integer nonlinear programming model constrains supply and demand capacity,transportation routes,oil substitution rules and pipeline freight levels.Logarithm transformation and price discretization are introduced for model linear approximation.Simulation experiments are carried out in the oil distribution system in South China.The results show that compared to the business-as-usual scheme,the new scheme saves transportation cost by 3.48%,increases pipeline turnover by 5.7%,and reduces energy consumption and emissions by 7.66%and 6.77%.It is proved that the proposed method improves the revenue of the whole system,achieves fair revenue distribution,and also improves the energy and environmental benefits of the oil supply chain.

Research on Maneuver Decision-Making of Multi-Agent Adversarial Game in a Random Interference Environment

The strategy evolution process of game players is highly uncertain due to random emergent situations and other external disturbances.This paper investigates the issue of strategy interaction and behavioral decision-making among game players in simulated confrontation scenarios within a random interference environment.It considers the possible risks that random disturbances may pose to the autonomous decision-making of game players,as well as the impact of participants’manipulative behaviors on the state changes of the players.A nonlinear mathematical model is established to describe the strategy decision-making process of the participants in this scenario.Subsequently,the strategy selection interaction relationship,strategy evolution stability,and dynamic decision-making process of the game players are investigated and verified by simulation experiments.The results show that maneuver-related parameters and random environmental interference factors have different effects on the selection and evolutionary speed of the agent’s strategies.Especially in a highly uncertain environment,even small information asymmetry or miscalculation may have a significant impact on decision-making.This also confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in the paper,which can better explain the behavioral decision-making process of the agent in the interaction process.This study provides feasibility analysis ideas and theoretical references for improving multi-agent interactive decision-making and the interpretability of the game system model.

Two-Layer Non-Hydrostatic Model for Generation and Propagation of Interfacial Waves

When pycnocline thickness of ocean density is relatively small, density stratification can be well represented as a two-layer system. In this article, a depth integrated model of the two-layer fluid with constant density is considered,and a variant of the edge-based non-hydrostatic numerical scheme is formulated. The resulting scheme is very efficient since it resolves the vertical fluid depth only in two layers. Despite using just two layers, the numerical dispersion is shown to agree with the analytical dispersion curves over a wide range of kd, where k is the wave number and d the water depth. The scheme was tested by simulating an interfacial solitary wave propagating over a flat bottom, as well as over a bottom step. On a laboratory scale, the formation of an interfacial wave is simulated,which also shows the interaction of wave with a triangular bathymetry. Then, a case study using the Lombok Strait topography is discussed, and the results show the development of an interfacial wave due to a strong current passing through a sill.

Cooperation influenced by the correlation degree of two-layered complex networks in evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma games

An evolutionary prisoner＇s dilemma game is investigated on two-layered complex networks respectively representing interaction and learning networks in one and two dimensions. A parameter q is introduced to denote the correlation degree between the two-layered networks. Using Monte Carlo simulations we studied the effects of the correlation degree on cooperative behaviour and found that the cooperator density nontrivially changes with q for different payoff parameter values depending on the detailed strategy updating and network dimension. An explanation for the obtained results is provided.

Parental Psychological Control and Internet Gaming Disorder Tendency:A Moderated Mediation Model of Core Self-Evaluation and Intentional Self-Regulation

Internet gaming disorder(IGD)among junior high school students is an increasingly prominent mental health concern.It is important to look for influences behind internet gaming disorder tendency(IGDT)in the junior high school student population.The present study aimed to reveal the explanatory mechanisms underlying the association between parental psychological control(PPC)and internet gaming disorder tendency among junior high school students by testing the mediating role of core self-evaluation(CSE)and the moderating role of intentional self-regulation(ISR).Participants in present study were 735 Chinese junior high school students who completed offline self-report questionnaires on parental psychological control,core self-evaluation,intentional self-regulation,and Internet gaming disorder tendency.Analyses were conducted via mediation and moderated mediation.The results showed that:(1)Parental psychological control was positively related to junior high school students’Internet gaming disorder tendency.Core self-evaluation,and intentional self-regulation were negatively related to junior high school students’Internet gaming disorder tendency,respectively.(2)Core self-evaluation partially mediated the relationship between parental psychological control and junior high school students’Internet gaming disorder tendency.(3)Intentional self-regulation moderated the association between parental psychological control and Internet gaming disorder tendency,as well as the relationships between parental psychological control and core self-evaluation and core self-evaluation and Internet gaming disorder tendency in the mediated model.Based on these findings,we believe that there is a need to weaken parental psychological control,strengthen junior high school students’core self-evaluation and intentional self-regulation,and to recognize the important role of parents as well as their children’s personal positive traits in the healthy development of junior high school students.

Evolutionary Games in Two-Layer Networks with the Introduction of Dominant Strategy

We study evolutionary games in two-layer networks by introducing the correlation between two layers through the C-dominance or the D-dominance. We assume that individuals play prisoner＇s dilemma game （PDG） in one layer and snowdrift game （SDG） in the other. We explore the dependences of the fraction of the strategy cooperation in different layers on the game parameter and initial conditions. The results on two-layer square lattices show that, when cooperation is the dominant strategy, initial conditions strongly influence cooperation in the PDG layer while have no impact in the SDG layer. Moreover, in contrast to the result for PDG in single-layer square lattices, the parameter regime where cooperation could be maintained expands significantly in the PDG layer. We also investigate the effects of mutation and network topology. We find that different mutation rates do not change the cooperation behaviors. Moreover, similar behaviors on cooperation could be found in two-layer random networks.

Modelling of a Human Driver’s Interaction with Vehicle Automated Steering Using Cooperative Game Theory

The introduction of automated driving systems raised questions about how the human driver interacts with the automated system. Non-cooperative game theory is increasingly used for modelling and understanding such interaction, while its counterpart, cooperative game theory is rarely discussed for similar applications despite it may be potentially more suitable. This paper describes the modelling of a human driver’s steering interaction with an automated steering system using cooperative game theory. The distributed Model Predictive Control approach is adopted to derive the driver’s and the automated steering system’s strategies in a Pareto equilibrium sense, namely their cooperative Pareto steering strategies. Two separate numerical studies are carried out to study the influence of strategy parameters, and the influence of strategy types on the driver’s and the automated system’s steering performance. It is found that when a driver interacts with an automated steering system using a cooperative Pareto steering strategy, the driver can improve his/her performance in following a target path through increasing his/her effort in pursuing his/her own interest under the driver-automation cooperative control goal. It is also found that a driver’s adoption of cooperative Pareto steering strategy leads to a reinforcement in the driver’s steering angle control, compared to the driver’s adoption of non-cooperative Nash strategy. This in turn enables the vehicle to return from a lane-change maneuver to straight-line driving swifter.

Chaos game representation walk model for the protein sequences

A new chaos game representation of protein sequences based on the detailed hydrophobic-hydrophilic （HP） model has been proposed by Yu et al （Physica A 337（2004） 171）. A CGR-walk model is proposed based on the new CGR coordinates for the protein sequences from complete genomes in the present paper. The new CCR coordinates based on the detailed HP model are converted into a time series, and a long-memory ARFIMA（p, d, q） model is introduced into the protein sequence analysis. This model is applied to simulating real CCR-walk sequence data of twelve protein sequences. Remarkably long-range correlations are uncovered in the data and the results obtained from these models are reasonably consistent with those available from the ARFIMA（p, d, q） model.

Strategic games on a hierarchical network model

Among complex network models,the hierarchical network model is the one most close to such real networks as world trade web,metabolic network,WWW,actor network,and so on.It has not only the property of power-law degree distribution,but also the scaling clustering coefficient property which Barabási-Albert(BA)model does not have.BA model is a model of network growth based on growth and preferential attachment,showing the scale-free degree distribution property.In this paper,we study the evolution of cooperation on a hierarchical network model,adopting the prisoner's dilemma(PD)game and snowdrift game(SG)as metaphors of the interplay between connected nodes.BA model provides a unifying framework for the emergence of cooperation.But interestingly,we found that on hierarchical model,there is no sign of cooperation for PD game,while the fre-quency of cooperation decreases as the common benefit decreases for SG.By comparing the scaling clustering coefficient prop-erties of the hierarchical network model with that of BA model,we found that the former amplifies the effect of hubs.Considering different performances of PD game and SG on complex network,we also found that common benefit leads to cooperation in the evolution.Thus our study may shed light on the emergence of cooperation in both natural and social environments.

Multi-Modal Data Analysis Based Game Player Experience Modeling Using LSTM-DNN

Game player modeling is a paradigm of computational models to exploit players’behavior and experience using game and player analytics.Player modeling refers to descriptions of players based on frameworks of data derived from the interaction of a player’s behavior within the game as well as the player’s experience with the game.Player behavior focuses on dynamic and static information gathered at the time of gameplay.Player experience concerns the association of the human player during gameplay,which is based on cognitive and affective physiological measurements collected from sensors mounted on the player’s body or in the player’s surroundings.In this paper,player experience modeling is studied based on the board puzzle game“Candy Crush Saga”using cognitive data of players accessed by physiological and peripheral devices.Long Short-Term Memory-based Deep Neural Network(LSTM-DNN)is used to predict players’effective states in terms of valence,arousal,dominance,and liking by employing the concept of transfer learning.Transfer learning focuses on gaining knowledge while solving one problem and using the same knowledge to solve different but related problems.The homogeneous transfer learning approach has not been implemented in the game domain before,and this novel study opens a new research area for the game industry where the main challenge is predicting the significance of innovative games for entertainment and players’engagement.Relevant not only from a player’s point of view,it is also a benchmark study for game developers who have been facing problems of“cold start”for innovative games that strengthen the game industrial economy.

Broadband diffuse optical spectroscopy of two-layered scattering media containing oxyhemoglobin,deoxyhemoglobin,water,and lipids

We investigated the relationship between chromophore concentrations in two-layered scattering media and the apparent chromophore concentrations measured with broadband optical spectroscopy in conjunction with commonly used homogeneous medium inverse models.We used diffusion theory to generate optical data from a two-layered distribution of relevant tissue absorbers,namely,oxyhemoglobin,deoxyhemoglobin,water,and lipids,with a top-layer thickness in the range 1–15 mm.The generated data consisted of broadband continuous-wave(CW)diffuse reflectance in the wavelength range 650–1024 nm,and frequency-domain(FD)diffuse reflectance at 690 and 830 nm;two source-detector distances of 25 and 35mm were used to simulate a dual-slope technique.The data were inverted using diffusion theory for a semi-infinite homogeneous medium to generate reduced scattering coeffcients at 690 and 830nm(from FD data)and effective absorption spectra in the range 650–1024nm(from CW data).The absorption spectra were then converted into effective total concentration and oxygen saturation of hemoglobin,as well as water and lipid concentrations.For absolute values,it was found that the effective hemoglobin parameters are typically representative of the bottom layer,whereas water and lipid represent some average of the respective concentrations in the two layers.For concentration changes,lipid showed a significant cross-talk with other absorber concentrations,thus indicating that lipid dynamics obtained in these conditions may not be reliable.These systematic simulations of broadband spectroscopy of two-layered media provide guidance on how to interpret effective optical properties measured with similar instrumental setups under the assumption of medium homogeneity.

Case Study on the Forestry Cooperation Model from Game Structure Perspective

Take Chinese yew cooperative organization for example,different game structures of forestry cooperation model were analyzed,the elative merit and applicable occasion was discussed combined with empirical investigation,and some suggestions were given also.The results showed that depending entirely on normal forest farmers cooperate spontaneously is difficult.Policies should be designed from the perspective of promoted village cadres and influential family salons to cooperation.When market factors become the main obstacle,it is necessary to introduce companies,relax constraints of forest management and build the right market atmosphere.According to unequal status of company and forest farmers,develop the cooperation model of " company + cooperation organization + farmers".In certain circumstances,especially there are several companies vicious competition,the intervention of association can play a coordinating role.

Reverse Engineering, Some Board Games as a Key to the Development of Artificial Intelligence and Construction of Economic Models

Reverse engineering, also called back engineering, is the process of extracting knowledge or designing information from anything： mechanical device electronic components, computer programs, or biological, chemical matters, and--subsequently--analyzing its components. Reverse engineering can be applied for the sake of creating artificial intelligence, e.g. when the used methods are based on very old games, such as Go and chess. Many generations of computers are able to play at the same level as human grandmasters. A computers＇ arrival at that level is due to imitation of human Go or chess play. A particular emphasis shall be placed upon the Go game, known for 5,500 years. Invented in China, it may be classified as the oldest board game, having its ardent enthusiasts until present times. Old physical issues can be easily projected upon the modeling of new economic phenomena and quantum games. The aim of this paper is to discuss the applications of reverse engineering, traditional social games and other domains, such as quantum physics, to the analysis of utterly new social as well as economic phenomena.

System dynamics of behaviour-evolutionary mix-game models

In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents： Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents： if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings： （i） the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; （ii） the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; （iii） there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; （iv） parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.