In the current information society, the dissemination mechanisms and evolution laws of individual or collective opinions and their behaviors are the research hot topics in the field of opinion dynamics. First, in this...In the current information society, the dissemination mechanisms and evolution laws of individual or collective opinions and their behaviors are the research hot topics in the field of opinion dynamics. First, in this paper, a two-layer network consisting of an individual-opinion layer and a collective-opinion layer is constructed, and a dissemination model of opinions incorporating higher-order interactions(i.e. OIHOI dissemination model) is proposed. Furthermore, the dynamic equations of opinion dissemination for both individuals and groups are presented. Using Lyapunov's first method,two equilibrium points, including the negative consensus point and positive consensus point, and the dynamic equations obtained for opinion dissemination, are analyzed theoretically. In addition, for individual opinions and collective opinions,some conditions for reaching negative consensus and positive consensus as well as the theoretical expression for the dissemination threshold are put forward. Numerical simulations are carried to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results, as well as the influence of the intra-structure, inter-connections, and higher-order interactions on the dissemination and evolution of individual opinions. The main results are as follows.(i) When the intra-structure of the collective-opinion layer meets certain characteristics, then a negative or positive consensus is easier to reach for individuals.(ii) Both negative consensus and positive consensus perform best in mixed type of inter-connections in the two-layer network.(iii) Higher-order interactions can quickly eliminate differences in individual opinions, thereby enabling individuals to reach consensus faster.展开更多
Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network ...Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network which takes the countries as nodes and takes the trade relations as edges.The networked mining and evolution analysis can provide important references for the research on trade relations among the B&R countries and the formulation of trade policy.This paper researches and discusses the construction,statistical analysis,top networks and stability of the crude oil trade network between the B&R countries from 2001 to 2020 from the perspectives of Geo-Computation for Social Sciences(GCSS)and spatial interaction.Firstly,evolutions of out-degree,in-degree,out-strength and in-strength of the top 10 countries in the crude oil trade network are computed and analyzed.Secondly,the top network method is used to explore the evolution characteristics of hierarchical structures.And finally,the sequential evolution characteristics of the crude oil trade network stability are analyzed utilizing the network stability measure method based on the trade relationship autocorrelation function.The analysis results show that Russia has the largest out-degree and out-strength,and China has the largest in-degree and in-strength.The crude oil trade volume of the top 10 import and export networks between 2001—2020 accounts for over 90%of the total trade volume of the crude oil trade network,and the proportion remains relatively stable.However,the stability of the network showed strong fluctuations in 2009,2012 and 2014,which may be closely related to major international events in these years,which could furtherly be used to build a correlation model between network volatility and major events.This paper explores how to construct and analyze the spatial interaction network of crude oil trade and can provide references for trade relations research and trade policy formulation of B&R countries.展开更多
China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows ...China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries＇economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China＇s competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China＇s economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China＇s economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China＇s manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump＇s ＂first 100 days ＂＂ in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China＇s debt sustainability in comparison with the US.展开更多
This study examines the impact of communication on investors’trading frequency based on a unique dataset drawn from a Chinese social trading platform.We find robust evidence that real-account portfolio owners on the ...This study examines the impact of communication on investors’trading frequency based on a unique dataset drawn from a Chinese social trading platform.We find robust evidence that real-account portfolio owners on the platform trade more frequently under the influence of the comments posted by their leaders(the owners of portfolios they have followed).Moreover,portfolio owners are more sensitive to the quantity than to the tone of leaders’comments.Finally,both trading frequency and leaders’comments negatively impact portfolio owners’future performance.Our find-ings support the notion that social interaction promotes active investment strategies.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.72031009 and 61473338)。
文摘In the current information society, the dissemination mechanisms and evolution laws of individual or collective opinions and their behaviors are the research hot topics in the field of opinion dynamics. First, in this paper, a two-layer network consisting of an individual-opinion layer and a collective-opinion layer is constructed, and a dissemination model of opinions incorporating higher-order interactions(i.e. OIHOI dissemination model) is proposed. Furthermore, the dynamic equations of opinion dissemination for both individuals and groups are presented. Using Lyapunov's first method,two equilibrium points, including the negative consensus point and positive consensus point, and the dynamic equations obtained for opinion dissemination, are analyzed theoretically. In addition, for individual opinions and collective opinions,some conditions for reaching negative consensus and positive consensus as well as the theoretical expression for the dissemination threshold are put forward. Numerical simulations are carried to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results, as well as the influence of the intra-structure, inter-connections, and higher-order interactions on the dissemination and evolution of individual opinions. The main results are as follows.(i) When the intra-structure of the collective-opinion layer meets certain characteristics, then a negative or positive consensus is easier to reach for individuals.(ii) Both negative consensus and positive consensus perform best in mixed type of inter-connections in the two-layer network.(iii) Higher-order interactions can quickly eliminate differences in individual opinions, thereby enabling individuals to reach consensus faster.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171448)Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,Ministry of Nature Resources(No.2020NGCMZD03)。
文摘Based on the theories and methods of complex network,crude oil trade flows between countries along the Belt and Road(B&R,hereafter)are inserted into the Geo-space of B&R and form a spatial interaction network which takes the countries as nodes and takes the trade relations as edges.The networked mining and evolution analysis can provide important references for the research on trade relations among the B&R countries and the formulation of trade policy.This paper researches and discusses the construction,statistical analysis,top networks and stability of the crude oil trade network between the B&R countries from 2001 to 2020 from the perspectives of Geo-Computation for Social Sciences(GCSS)and spatial interaction.Firstly,evolutions of out-degree,in-degree,out-strength and in-strength of the top 10 countries in the crude oil trade network are computed and analyzed.Secondly,the top network method is used to explore the evolution characteristics of hierarchical structures.And finally,the sequential evolution characteristics of the crude oil trade network stability are analyzed utilizing the network stability measure method based on the trade relationship autocorrelation function.The analysis results show that Russia has the largest out-degree and out-strength,and China has the largest in-degree and in-strength.The crude oil trade volume of the top 10 import and export networks between 2001—2020 accounts for over 90%of the total trade volume of the crude oil trade network,and the proportion remains relatively stable.However,the stability of the network showed strong fluctuations in 2009,2012 and 2014,which may be closely related to major international events in these years,which could furtherly be used to build a correlation model between network volatility and major events.This paper explores how to construct and analyze the spatial interaction network of crude oil trade and can provide references for trade relations research and trade policy formulation of B&R countries.
文摘China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries＇economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China＇s competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China＇s economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China＇s economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China＇s manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump＇s ＂first 100 days ＂＂ in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China＇s debt sustainability in comparison with the US.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.7167030951).
文摘This study examines the impact of communication on investors’trading frequency based on a unique dataset drawn from a Chinese social trading platform.We find robust evidence that real-account portfolio owners on the platform trade more frequently under the influence of the comments posted by their leaders(the owners of portfolios they have followed).Moreover,portfolio owners are more sensitive to the quantity than to the tone of leaders’comments.Finally,both trading frequency and leaders’comments negatively impact portfolio owners’future performance.Our find-ings support the notion that social interaction promotes active investment strategies.
