A Deep Learning Approach for Forecasting Thunderstorm Gusts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.

Enhancing Deep Learning Soil Moisture Forecasting Models by Integrating Physics-based Models

Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Promising Results Predict Role for Artificial Intelligence in Weather Forecasting

Artificial intelligence(AI)has already demonstrated its proficiency at difficult scientific tasks like predicting how proteins will fold and identifying new astronomical objects in masses of observational data[1].Now,recent results suggest that AI also excels at weather forecasting.For global predictions,GraphCast,an AI system developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind(London,UK),outperforms the state-of-the-art model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),providing more accurate projections of variables such as temperature and humidity 90%of the time[2,3].Other AI systems,including Pangu-Weather from the Chinese tech company Huawei(Shenzhen,China)[4],can also match or beat traditional global forecasting models.

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Evaluation of frictional pressure drop correlations for air-water and air-oil two-phase flow in pipeline-riser system

Accurate prediction of the frictional pressure drop is important for the design and operation of subsea oil and gas transporting system considering the length of the pipeline. The applicability of the correlations to pipeline-riser flow needs evaluation since the flow condition in pipeline-riser is quite different from the original data where they were derived from. In the present study, a comprehensive evaluation of 24prevailing correlation in predicting frictional pressure drop is carried out based on experimentally measured data of air-water and air-oil two-phase flows in pipeline-riser. Experiments are performed in a system having different configuration of pipeline-riser with the inclination of the downcomer varied from-2°to-5°to investigated the effect of the elbow on the frictional pressure drop in the riser. The inlet gas velocity ranges from 0.03 to 6.2 m/s, and liquid velocity varies from 0.02 to 1.3 m/s. A total of885 experimental data points including 782 on air-water flows and 103 on air-oil flows are obtained and used to access the prediction ability of the correlations. Comparison of the predicted results with the measured data indicate that a majority of the investigated correlations under-predict the pressure drop on severe slugging. The result of this study highlights the requirement of new method considering the effect of pipe layout on the frictional pressure drop.

Better use of experience from other reservoirs for accurate production forecasting by learn-to-learn method

To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studied to make predictions accurate.However,the permeability field,well patterns,and development regime must all be similar for two reservoirs to be considered in the same class.This results in very few available experiences from other reservoirs even though there is a lot of historical information on numerous reservoirs because it is difficult to find such similar reservoirs.This paper proposes a learn-to-learn method,which can better utilize a vast amount of historical data from various reservoirs.Intuitively,the proposed method first learns how to learn samples before directly learning rules in samples.Technically,by utilizing gradients from networks with independent parameters and copied structure in each class of reservoirs,the proposed network obtains the optimal shared initial parameters which are regarded as transferable information across different classes.Based on that,the network is able to predict future production indices for the target reservoir by only training with very limited samples collected from reservoirs in the same class.Two cases further demonstrate its superiority in accuracy to other widely-used network methods.

Comparison among the UECM Model, and the Composite Model in Forecasting Malaysian Imports

For more than a century, forecasting models have been crucial in a variety of fields. Models can offer the most accurate forecasting outcomes if error terms are normally distributed. Finding a good statistical model for time series predicting imports in Malaysia is the main target of this study. The decision made during this study mostly addresses the unrestricted error correction model (UECM), and composite model (Combined regression—ARIMA). The imports of Malaysia from the first quarter of 1991 to the third quarter of 2022 are employed in this study’s quarterly time series data. The forecasting outcomes of the current study demonstrated that the composite model offered more probabilistic data, which improved forecasting the volume of Malaysia’s imports. The composite model, and the UECM model in this study are linear models based on responses to Malaysia’s imports. Future studies might compare the performance of linear and nonlinear models in forecasting.

Pressure transient characteristics of non-uniform conductivity fractured wells in viscoelasticity polymer flooding based on oil-water two-phase flow

Polymer flooding in fractured wells has been extensively applied in oilfields to enhance oil recovery.In contrast to water,polymer solution exhibits non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior such as effects of shear thinning and shear thickening,polymer convection,diffusion,adsorption retention,inaccessible pore volume and reduced effective permeability.Meanwhile,the flux density and fracture conductivity along the hydraulic fracture are generally non-uniform due to the effects of pressure distribution,formation damage,and proppant breakage.In this paper,we present an oil-water two-phase flow model that captures these complex non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior,and non-uniform fracture characteristics in fractured polymer flooding.The hydraulic fracture is firstly divided into two parts:high-conductivity fracture near the wellbore and low-conductivity fracture in the far-wellbore section.A hybrid grid system,including perpendicular bisection(PEBI)and Cartesian grid,is applied to discrete the partial differential flow equations,and the local grid refinement method is applied in the near-wellbore region to accurately calculate the pressure distribution and shear rate of polymer solution.The combination of polymer behavior characterizations and numerical flow simulations are applied,resulting in the calculation for the distribution of water saturation,polymer concentration and reservoir pressure.Compared with the polymer flooding well with uniform fracture conductivity,this non-uniform fracture conductivity model exhibits the larger pressure difference,and the shorter bilinear flow period due to the decrease of fracture flow ability in the far-wellbore section.The field case of the fall-off test demonstrates that the proposed method characterizes fracture characteristics more accurately,and yields fracture half-lengths that better match engineering reality,enabling a quantitative segmented characterization of the near-wellbore section with high fracture conductivity and the far-wellbore section with low fracture conductivity.The novelty of this paper is the analysis of pressure performances caused by the fracture dynamics and polymer rheology,as well as an analysis method that derives formation and fracture parameters based on the pressure and its derivative curves.

Generalized load graphical forecasting method based on modal decomposition

In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.

Numerical Simulations of Wave Impact Forces on the Open-Type Sea Access Road Using A Two-Phase SPH Model

A numerical study based on a two-dimensional two-phase SPH(Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics)model to analyze the action of water waves on open-type sea access roads is presented.The study is a continuation of the analyses presented by Chen et al.(2022),in which the sea access roads are semi-immersed.In this new configuration,the sea access roads are placed above the still water level,therefore the presence of the air phase becomes a relevant issue in the determination of the wave forces acting on the structures.Indeed,the comparison of wave forces on the open-type sea access roads obtained from the single and two-phase SPH models with the experimental results shows that the latter are in much better agreement.So in the numerical simulations,a two-phaseδ-SPH model is adopted to investigate the dynamical problems.Based on the numerical results,the maximum horizontal and uplifting wave forces acting on the sea access roads are analyzed by considering different wave conditions and geometries of the structures.In particular,the presence of the girder is analyzed and the differences in the wave forces due to the air cushion effects which are created below the structure are highlighted.

CALTM:A Context-Aware Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting Model

Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.

Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

Integrated numerical simulation of hydraulic fracturing and production in shale gas well considering gas-water two-phase flow

Based on the displacement discontinuity method and the discrete fracture unified pipe network model,a sequential iterative numerical method was used to build a fracturing-production integrated numerical model of shale gas well considering the two-phase flow of gas and water.The model accounts for the influence of natural fractures and matrix properties on the fracturing process and directly applies post-fracturing formation pressure and water saturation distribution to subsequent well shut-in and production simulation,allowing for a more accurate fracturing-production integrated simulation.The results show that the reservoir physical properties have great impacts on fracture propagation,and the reasonable prediction of formation pressure and reservoir fluid distribution after the fracturing is critical to accurately predict the gas and fluid production of the shale gas wells.Compared with the conventional method,the proposed model can more accurately simulate the water and gas production by considering the impact of fracturing on both matrix pressure and water saturation.The established model is applied to the integrated fracturing-production simulation of practical horizontal shale gas wells.The simulation results are in good agreement with the practical production data,thus verifying the accuracy of the model.

Assessment of ECMWF’s Precipitation Forecasting Performance for China from 2017 to 2022

This study used the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model for China from 2017 to 2022.The main conclusions are as follows.The precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF model for China has gradually improved from 2017 to 2022.Various scores such as bias,equitable threat score(ETS),and Fractions Skill Score(FSS)showed improvements for different categories of precipitation.The bias of light rain forecasts overall adjusted towards smaller values,and the increase in forecast scores was greater in the warm season than in the cold season.The ETS for torrential rain more intense categories significantly increased,although there were large fluctuations in bias across different months.The model exhibited higher precipitation bias in most areas of North China,indicating overprediction,while it showed lower bias in South China,indicating underprediction.The ETSs indicate that the model performed better in forecasting precipitation in the northeastern part of China without the influence of climatic background conditions.Comparison of the differences between the first period and the second period of the forecast shows that the precipitation amplitude in the ECMWF forecast shifted from slight underestimation to overestimation compared to that of CMPAS05,reducing the likelihood of missing extreme precipitation events.The improvement in ETS is mainly due to the reduction in bias and false alarm rates and,more importantly,an increase in the hit rate.From 2017 to 2022,the area coverage error of model precipitation forecast relative to observations showed a decreasing trend at different scales,while the FSS showed an increasing trend,with the highest FSS observed in 2021.The ETS followed a parabolic trend with increasing neighborhood radius,with the better ETS neighborhood radius generally being larger for moderate rain and heavy rain compared with light rain and torrential rain events.

Weather-Driven Solar Power Forecasting Using D-Informer:Enhancing Predictions with Climate Variables

Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Simulation of Two-Phase Flowback Phenomena in Shale Gas Wells

The gas-water two-phaseflow occurring as a result of fracturingfluidflowback phenomena is known to impact significantly the productivity of shale gas well.In this work,this two-phaseflow has been simulated in the framework of a hybrid approach partially relying on the embedded discrete fracture model(EDFM).This model assumes the region outside the stimulated reservoir volume(SRV)as a single-medium while the SRV region itself is described using a double-medium strategy which can account for thefluid exchange between the matrix and the micro-fractures.The shale gas adsorption,desorption,diffusion,gas slippage effect,fracture stress sensitivity,and capillary imbibition have been considered.The shale gas production,pore pressure distribution and water saturation distribution in the reservoir have been simulated.The influences of hydraulic fracture geometry and nonorthogonal hydraulic fractures on gas production have been determined and discussed accordingly.The simulation results show that the daily gas production has an upward and downward trend due to the presence of a large amount of fracturingfluid in the reservoir around the hydraulic fracture.The smaller the angle between the hydraulic fracture and the wellbore,the faster the daily production of shale gas wells decreases,and the lower the cumulative production.Nonplanar fractures can increase the control volume of hydraulic fractures and improve the production of shale gas wells.

Investigating Periodic Dependencies to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting

With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit periodic patterns and share high associations with metrological data.However,current studies have merely focused on point-wise models and failed to sufficiently investigate the periodic patterns of load series,which hinders the further improvement of short-term load forecasting accuracy.Therefore,this paper improved Autoformer to extract the periodic patterns of load series and learn a representative feature from deep decomposition and reconstruction.In addition,a novel multi-factor attention mechanism was proposed to handle multi-source metrological and numerical weather prediction data and thus correct the forecasted electrical load.The paper also compared the proposed model with various competitive models.As the experimental results reveal,the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models and maintains stability on various types of load consumers.

Dynamic Forecasting of Traffic Event Duration in Istanbul:A Classification Approach with Real-Time Data Integration

Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.

Arbitrary High-Order Fully-Decoupled Numerical Schemes for Phase-Field Models of Two-Phase Incompressible Flows

Due to the coupling between the hydrodynamic equation and the phase-field equation in two-phase incompressible flows,it is desirable to develop efficient and high-order accurate numerical schemes that can decouple these two equations.One popular and efficient strategy is to add an explicit stabilizing term to the convective velocity in the phase-field equation to decouple them.The resulting schemes are only first-order accurate in time,and it seems extremely difficult to generalize the idea of stabilization to the second-order or higher version.In this paper,we employ the spectral deferred correction method to improve the temporal accuracy,based on the first-order decoupled and energy-stable scheme constructed by the stabilization idea.The novelty lies in how the decoupling and linear implicit properties are maintained to improve the efficiency.Within the framework of the spatially discretized local discontinuous Galerkin method,the resulting numerical schemes are fully decoupled,efficient,and high-order accurate in both time and space.Numerical experiments are performed to validate the high-order accuracy and efficiency of the methods for solving phase-field models of two-phase incompressible flows.