A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in orde...A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.展开更多
A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts us...A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.展开更多
The TOVS data are used to study the structure of a number of tropical cyclones for the year 2000. Differences are found to some extent between what is found and classic conceptual models in that (1) the horizontal str...The TOVS data are used to study the structure of a number of tropical cyclones for the year 2000. Differences are found to some extent between what is found and classic conceptual models in that (1) the horizontal structure is asymmetric and variable so that the low-value centers at low levels of the geopotential height field (or the high-value centers at high levels) do not necessarily coincide with the high-value centers of the temperature field; (2) the vertical structure is also variable in the allocation of the anomalies of the geopotential height field between low values at low levels and high values at high levels. It is especially noted that the centers of the anomalies are tilting at both high and low levels or the high level is only at the edge of a high-pressure zone. There is not any significant high-value anomalous center in a corresponding location with the tropical cyclone. The structure of tropical cyclone in the TOVS is also used as reference to modify the structure of typhoon BOGUS in the numerical prediction model system of tropical cyclones. It is found that the modified BOGUS performs better in coordinating with the environment and predicting the track of the tropical cyclone. The demonstration is two-fold the structure of the typhoon BOGUS is such that it means much in the track prediction and the use of the TOVS-based tropical cyclone structure really helps in improving it. It provides the foundation for modification and evolution of typhoon BOGUS.展开更多
基金Key scientific research project for the State Meteorological Administration in the 9 five-year development plan (ZX95-01)
文摘A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.
文摘A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.
基金Research on Monitoring & Forecasting Techniques for Calamities by Typhoons Making Landfall on China key project of Ministry of Sci. & Tech.(2001DIA20026) Study on Pre-warning Techniques for Calamities caused by Landfalls of South China Sea Tropical Cyc
文摘The TOVS data are used to study the structure of a number of tropical cyclones for the year 2000. Differences are found to some extent between what is found and classic conceptual models in that (1) the horizontal structure is asymmetric and variable so that the low-value centers at low levels of the geopotential height field (or the high-value centers at high levels) do not necessarily coincide with the high-value centers of the temperature field; (2) the vertical structure is also variable in the allocation of the anomalies of the geopotential height field between low values at low levels and high values at high levels. It is especially noted that the centers of the anomalies are tilting at both high and low levels or the high level is only at the edge of a high-pressure zone. There is not any significant high-value anomalous center in a corresponding location with the tropical cyclone. The structure of tropical cyclone in the TOVS is also used as reference to modify the structure of typhoon BOGUS in the numerical prediction model system of tropical cyclones. It is found that the modified BOGUS performs better in coordinating with the environment and predicting the track of the tropical cyclone. The demonstration is two-fold the structure of the typhoon BOGUS is such that it means much in the track prediction and the use of the TOVS-based tropical cyclone structure really helps in improving it. It provides the foundation for modification and evolution of typhoon BOGUS.
