为了分析台风影响下浙江沿海风和浪的演变特点,利用浙江省海洋浮标站监测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候大气再分析数据(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5,ERA5),选取2010年以来严重影响...为了分析台风影响下浙江沿海风和浪的演变特点,利用浙江省海洋浮标站监测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候大气再分析数据(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5,ERA5),选取2010年以来严重影响浙江的7次台风个例,对台风作用下浙江沿海海面风和浪的演变特点进行分析。结果表明:在台风影响过程中,海浪波型多数呈现混合浪-风浪-混合浪的演变规律;涌浪波型的出现与台风强度及其与浮标站的距离和方位有关,也与海洋潮汐现象紧密相关。台风影响期间,浙江沿海浪高的变化受风速和风向共同作用影响。在风向不变的情况下,持续风速增大对浪高的增大有明显作用;风向的变化也会对浪高变化产生影响,向岸风和离岸风的转变会造成浪高出现剧烈变化。ERA5再分析资料有效波高在台风浪较大时会呈现偏小的趋势,分析订正后的ERA5有效波高发现,台风浪有效波高大值区与台风中心位置相关。研究结果可为严重影响浙江沿海的台风浪预报服务提供参考。展开更多
Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall w...Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment field.The results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast phase.Changes in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made landfall.The steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the members.Meanwhile,the forecast uncertainty increased.In summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some instances.The position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h forecast.The strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.展开更多
风荷载是超大型冷却塔设计的控制荷载,塔筒内部风荷载取值仅考虑了良态风工况。为研究台风作用下超大型冷却塔内吸力分布特性,采用多重嵌套的中尺度天气研究预报(Weather research and forecast,WRF)模式对台风“鲇鱼”进行高时空分辨...风荷载是超大型冷却塔设计的控制荷载,塔筒内部风荷载取值仅考虑了良态风工况。为研究台风作用下超大型冷却塔内吸力分布特性,采用多重嵌套的中尺度天气研究预报(Weather research and forecast,WRF)模式对台风“鲇鱼”进行高时空分辨率模拟,并借助最小二乘法优化技术拟合得到近地面三维风速剖面。以山西潞安电厂220 m世界最高冷却塔为对象,结合中-小尺度耦合模式嵌套技术对超大型冷却塔进行台风和A类地貌下大气边界层良态气候风的近地面三维风场CFD模拟。在此基础上,探讨了塔内绕流特性、能量分布、阻力系数以及风阻的差异和产生原因,对比分析了冷却塔内表面风压系数三维分布特征,最后给出台风作用下超大型冷却塔内吸力的取值建议。结果表明,采用WRF-CFD耦合模式可以有效模拟台风下超大型冷却塔近地三维风场,考虑0%、15%、30%及100%百叶窗透风率下台风致内吸力系数取值分别为-0.61、-0.36、-0.34和-0.42。展开更多
文摘为了分析台风影响下浙江沿海风和浪的演变特点,利用浙江省海洋浮标站监测数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候大气再分析数据(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5,ERA5),选取2010年以来严重影响浙江的7次台风个例,对台风作用下浙江沿海海面风和浪的演变特点进行分析。结果表明:在台风影响过程中,海浪波型多数呈现混合浪-风浪-混合浪的演变规律;涌浪波型的出现与台风强度及其与浮标站的距离和方位有关,也与海洋潮汐现象紧密相关。台风影响期间,浙江沿海浪高的变化受风速和风向共同作用影响。在风向不变的情况下,持续风速增大对浪高的增大有明显作用;风向的变化也会对浪高变化产生影响,向岸风和离岸风的转变会造成浪高出现剧烈变化。ERA5再分析资料有效波高在台风浪较大时会呈现偏小的趋势,分析订正后的ERA5有效波高发现,台风浪有效波高大值区与台风中心位置相关。研究结果可为严重影响浙江沿海的台风浪预报服务提供参考。
基金National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421500)Shanghai Science and Technology Program (10231203700)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40921160381)
文摘Based on the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Model(GRAPES-TCM),an ensemble forecast experiment was performed,in which Typhoon Wipha during the period immediately prior to landfall was selected for the study and the breeding of growing mode(BGM) method was used to perturb the initial conditions of the vortex field and the environment field.The results of the experiment indicate that each member had a different initial status in BGM processing and they show a reasonable spread among members along with the forecast phase.Changes in the large-scale field,thermodynamic structure,and spread among members took place when Wipha made landfall.The steering effect of the large-scale field and the interaction between the thermodynamics and the dynamics resulted in different tracks of the members.Meanwhile,the forecast uncertainty increased.In summary,the ensemble mean did not perform as well as the control forecast,but the cluster mean provided some useful information,and performed better than the control in some instances.The position error was 34 km for 24 h forecast,153 km for 48 h forecast,and 191 km for 66 h forecast.The strike probability chart qualitatively described the forecast uncertainty.
文摘风荷载是超大型冷却塔设计的控制荷载,塔筒内部风荷载取值仅考虑了良态风工况。为研究台风作用下超大型冷却塔内吸力分布特性,采用多重嵌套的中尺度天气研究预报(Weather research and forecast,WRF)模式对台风“鲇鱼”进行高时空分辨率模拟,并借助最小二乘法优化技术拟合得到近地面三维风速剖面。以山西潞安电厂220 m世界最高冷却塔为对象,结合中-小尺度耦合模式嵌套技术对超大型冷却塔进行台风和A类地貌下大气边界层良态气候风的近地面三维风场CFD模拟。在此基础上,探讨了塔内绕流特性、能量分布、阻力系数以及风阻的差异和产生原因,对比分析了冷却塔内表面风压系数三维分布特征,最后给出台风作用下超大型冷却塔内吸力的取值建议。结果表明,采用WRF-CFD耦合模式可以有效模拟台风下超大型冷却塔近地三维风场,考虑0%、15%、30%及100%百叶窗透风率下台风致内吸力系数取值分别为-0.61、-0.36、-0.34和-0.42。
