Optimization of multi-model ensemble forecasting of typhoon waves

Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models （model-ensembles）. The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.

CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves-Ⅰ. Spectrum of waves in growing phase

Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller the wind time,as a result,the more difficult for the wind wave to fully grow. Hence.in typhoon wave numerical calculation it is impossible to use the model for a fully grown wave spectrum. Lately, the author et at. presented a CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves, where a model for the growing wave spectrum was set up (see Eq. (2) in the text). The model involves a parameter indicating the growing degree of wind wave, i. e. ,the mean wave age β. When βvalue is small, the wave energy is chiefly concentrated near the peak frequency, so that the spectral peak gets high and steep; with the increase of β the spectral shape gradually gets lower and gentler; when β=Ⅰ, the wave fully grows, the growing spectrum becomes a fully grown P-M spectrum. The model also shows a spectral “overshooting” phenomenon within the “balance zone”.

The study on the bottom friction and the breaking coefficient for typhoon waves in radial sand ridges—the Lanshayang Channel as an example

Owing to the interactions among the complex terrain, bottom materials, and the complicate hydrodynam-ics, typhoon waves show special characteristics as big waves appeared at the high water level （HWL） and small waves emerged at low and middle water levels （LWL and MWL） in radial sand ridges （RSR）. It is as-sumed that the mud damping, sandy bed friction and wave breaking effects have a great influence on the typhoon wave propagation in this area. Under the low wave energy, a mud layer will form and transport into the shallow area, thus the mud damping effects dominate at the LWL and the MWL. And high Collins coef-ficient （c around 1） can be applied to computing the damping effects at the LWL and the MWL. But under the high wave energy, the bottom sediment will be stirred and suspended, and then the damping effects disappear at the HWL. Thus the varying Collins coefficient with the water level method （VCWL） is imple-mented into the SWAN to model the typhoon wave process in the Lanshayang Channel （LSYC） of the RSR, the observed wave data under “Winnie” （“9711”） typhoon was used as validation. The results show that the typhoon wave in the RSR area is able to be simulated by the VCWL method concisely, and a constant wave breaking coefficient （γ） equaling 0.78 is better for the RSR where wide tidal flats and gentle bed slopes exist.

A method to predict typhoon waves

The presented method for numerical typhoon wave prediction is composed of a scheme for real time pressure forecasts, a marine wind numerical model and a typhoon wave numerical model. In the Northwest Pacific Ocean and China seas where water depth is over 20 m, a hybrid wave model [Wen Shengchang, Zhang Dacuo, Chen Bobal and Guo Peifang. 1989, Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 8 (1), 1～14; Zhang Dacuo, Wu Zengmao,Jiang Decai, Wang Wei, Chen Bobai, Tat Weitao, Wen Shengchang, Xu Qichun and Guo Peifaug. 1992, Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 11 (2), 157～178] is employed with 1°×1°grids, while in the South China Sea and East China Sea where typhoon frequently appears, the WAM model (WAMDI Group. 1988, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 18, 1755～1810) of shallow water version is embedded with (1 /4 )°×(1 /4)°grids. The boundary condition at the open boundary of the WAM model is provided by the hybrid model. After 3 a of testing forecasts(Yang Chuncheng, Dai Mingrui and Zhang Dacuo. 1992, International Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Disasters, October 12～16, Beijing, 404～409 ) and improvement, this system was put into operational use on the forecasting computer network of National Marine Environment Forecast Center of China in June, 1993. The wave predictions of 22 typhoon events show that the system is stable and prompt, and the forecast results are satisfactory. This system provides reliable numerical products for the disaster-prevention forecasts. The product is broadcasted in CCTV News at every noon.

Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in Typhoon Events Passing the Kuroshio Current

The aim of this study is to investigate the sea surface temperature(SST) cooling as typhoons pass the Kuroshio Current.A numerical circulation model,denoted as the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model(sbPOM),was used to simulate the SST,which includes four wave-induced effect terms(i.e.,radiation stress,nonbreaking waves,Stokes drift,and breaking waves) simulated using the third-generation wave model,called WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3).The significant wave height(SWH) measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter were used to validate the WW3-simulated results,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE) of less than 0.50 m and a correlation coefficient(COR) of approximately 0.93.The water temperature measured from the Advanced Research and Global Observation Satellite was applied to validate the model simulation.Accordingly,the RMSE of the SST is 0.92℃ with a COR of approximately 0.99.As revealed in the sbPOM-simulated SST fields,a reduction in the SST at the Kuroshio Current region was observed as a typhoon passed,although the water temperature of the Kuroshio Current is relatively high.The variation of the SST is consistent with that of the current,whereas the maximum SST lagged behind the occurrence of the peak SWH.Moreover,the Stokes drift plays an important role in the SST cooling after analyzing four wave-induced terms in the background of the Kuroshio Current.The sensitivity experiment also showed that the accuracy of the water temperature was significantly reduced when including breaking waves,which play a negative role in the inside part of the ocean.The variation in the mean mixing layer depth(MLD) showed that a typhoon could enhance the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in September and October,whereas a typhoon has little influence on the mean MLD in the Kuroshio Current area in May.Moreover,the mean MLD rapidly decreased with the weakening of the strong wind force and wave-induced effects when a typhoon crossed the Kuroshio Current.

Numerical investigation of ocean waves generated by three typhoons in offshore China

The influences of the three types of reanalysis wind fields on the simulation of three typhoon waves occurred in2015 in offshore China were numerically investigated.The typhoon wave model was based on the simulating waves nearshore model(SWAN),in which the wind fields for driving waves were derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Re-Analysis-Interim(ERA-interim),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2)and cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP)datasets.Firstly,the typhoon waves generated during the occurrence of typhoons Chan-hom(1509),Linfa(1510)and Nangka(1511)in 2015 were simulated by using the wave model driven by ERA-interim,CFSv2 and CCMP datasets.The numerical results were validated using buoy data and satellite observation data,and the simulation results under the three types of wind fields were in good agreement with the observed data.The numerical results showed that the CCMP wind data was the best in simulating waves overall,and the wind speeds pertaining to ERA-Interim and CCMP were notably smaller than those observed near the typhoon centre.To correct the accuracy of the wind fields,the Holland theoretical wind model was used to revise and optimize the wind speed pertaining to the CCMP near the typhoon centre.The results indicated that the CCMP wind-driven SWAN model could appropriately simulate the typhoon waves generated by three typhoons in offshore China,and the use of the CCMP/Holland blended wind field could effectively improve the accuracy of typhoon wave simulations.

Simulation of the extreme waves generated by typhoon Bolaven (1215) in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea

Record-breaking high waves occurred during the passage of the typhoon Bolaven（1215）（TYB） in the East China Sea（ECS） and Yellow Sea（YS） although its intensity did not reach the level of a super typhoon.Winds and directional wave measurements were made using a range of in-situ instruments mounted on an ocean tower and buoys.In order to understand how such high waves with long duration occurred,analyses have been made through measurement and numerical simulations.TYB winds were generated using the TC96 typhoon wind model with the best track data calibrated with the measurements.And then the wind fields were blended with the reanalyzed synoptic-scale wind fields for a wave model.Wave fields were simulated using WAM4.5 with adjustment of C_d for gust of winds and bottom friction for the study area.Thus the accuracy of simulations is considerably enhanced,and the computed results are also in better agreement with measured data than before.It is found that the extremely high waves evolved as a result of the superposition of distant large swells and high wind seas generated by strong winds from the front/right quadrant of the typhoon track.As the typhoon moved at a speed a little slower than the dominant wave group velocity in a consistent direction for two days,the wave growth was significantly enhanced by strong wind input in an extended fetch and non-linear interaction.

Near-inertial waves in the wake of 2011 Typhoon Nesat in the northern South China Sea

In September 2011, Typhoon Nesat passed over a moored array of instruments recording current and temperature in the northern South China Sea（SCS）. A wake of baroclinic near-inertial waves（NIWs） commenced after Nesat passed the array. The associated near-inertial currents are surface-intensified and clockwise-polarized. The vertical range of NIWs reached 300 m, where the vertical range is defined as the maximum depth of the horizontal near-inertial velocity 5 cm/s. The current oscillations have a frequency of 0.709 9 cycles per day（cpd）, which is 0.025 f higher than the local inertial frequency. The NIWs have an e-folding time-scale of 10 d based on the evolution of the near-inertial kinetic energy. The depth-leading phase of near-inertial currents indicates downward group velocity and energy flux. The estimated vertical phase velocity and group velocity are 0.27 and 0.08 cm/s respectively, corresponding to a vertical wavelength of 329 m. A spectral analysis reveals that NIWs act as a crucial process to redistribute the energy injected by Typhoon Nesat. A normal mode and an empirical orthogonal function analysis indicate that the second mode has a dominant variance contribution of 81%, and the corresponding horizontal phase velocity and wavelength are 3.50 m/s and 420 km respectively. The remarkable large horizontal phase velocity is relevant to the rotation of the earth, and a quantitative analysis suggests that the phase velocity of the NIWs with a blue-shift of 0.025 f overwhelms that of internal gravity waves by a factor of 4.6.

Numerical Study of Storm Surge Inundation in the Southwestern Hangzhou Bay Region During Typhoon Chan-Hom in 2015

Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore model)was used to investigate the storm surge inundation in the southwestern Hangzhou Bay region during Typhoon Chan-hom in 2015.The simulated hydrodynamic processes(sea surface wave and storm tide)were validated with measured data from wave buoys and tide gauges,indicating that the overall performance of the model was satisfactory.The storm surge inundation in the coastal area was simulated for several idealized control experiments,including different wave effects(wave-enhanced wind stress,wave-enhanced bottom stress,and wave radiation stress).Dike overflowing cases with different dike heights and dike breaking cases with different dike breach lengths were considered in the simulation.The results highlight the necessity of incorporating wave effects in the accurate simulation of storm surge inundation.Dike height significantly influences the magnitude and phase of the maximum inundation area in the dike overflowing cases,and dike breach length is an important factor impacting the magnitude of the maximum inundation area in the dike breaking cases.This study may serve as a useful reference for accurate coastal inundation simulation and risk assessment.

Estimation and Prediction of Typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China

This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m^3 km^(-1) s^(-1), respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.

Effect of oceanic current on typhoon-wave modeling in the East China Sea

We use the WAVEWATCH-III model to quantify the effect of oceanic current on typhoon-wave modeling in the East-China-Sea（ECS）.Typhoons Jelawat and Saomai in the autumn of 2000 are hindcasted.The oceanic currents in the ECS are mainly constituted of Kuroshio and typhoon-generated currents.The results show distinguishable differences in wave height and wave period under the typhoon conditions.The oceanic current causes the maximum differences,of up to a 0.5 m significant wave height and a 1 s mean wave period.Comparisons between typhoons Jelawat and Saomai show the dependence of the current effect on the typhoon characteristics.

Analysis of the typhoon wave distribution simulated in WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ model in the context of Kuroshio and wind-induced current

To investigate the relationship between surface currents and wave distributions in typhoons,we took the Typhoon Talim in 2017 as a case,and found that the track of the typhoon winds up to 50 m/s was almost consistent with the Kuroshio track,particularly from September 13 to 16,2017.The surface current data,derived from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)from the National Center of Atmospheric Research(NCAR),revealed that the speed of the wind-induced current exceeded that of the Kuroshio in the region with the maximum wind speed.In this study,was utilized a third-generation numeric wave model,WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(the latest version 5.16),developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),to simulate the wave fields of Typhoon Talim using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis wind data in 0.125°×0.125°grid as the forcing field.We found that the root-mean-square error(RMSE)of the significant wave height(SWH)was 0.34 m when validated against measurements from altimeter Jason-2.In addition,we discovered that the SWH had a similar tendency to the change in the surface current speed that was approximately 0.5 m/s at the beginning of Typhoon Talim.However,the relationship became weak as the surface current speed was below 0.2 m/s.Our findings show that the distribution of typhoon waves is resulted from the interaction of surface current and the wind-sea portion of the wave system,since the distribution pattern of wind-sea is consistent with the surface current,and there is a weak relationship between surface current and swell.

The effect of unstable inertia-gravity wave on the occurrence and the development of typhoon and tropical cyclone

In this paper,the analysis of the occurrence and the development of typhoon and tropical cyclone is made with the unstable theory of wave. The result indicates that the primary wave is the unstable inertia-gravity wave in the process of the occurrence and the deveJopmant of typhoon and tropical cyclone: The existence of the deep moist layer and the heating by moisture condensation can impel and intensify the unstability of the wave and is favourable for the reduction of the wave energy dispersion, therefore, it is good for the formation and the development of typhoon and tropical cyclone, and also can slow down the wave speed. Besides, the condition that the change of the specific volume of the basic state with pressure is less than that of adiabatic state may also lead to the wave unstability, thus may have certain effect on the occurrence and the development of typhoon and tropical cyclone.

Observation and simulation of wind waves near a typical reef lagoon in South China Sea

Due to the inference of the uneven shallow water seabed and the surrounding islands,the wind-generated waves around or in a reef lagoon are rather complicated,and critical to the safety of floating structures deployed near islands or inside a lagoon.This paper aims to find a feasible analysis tool for the wave simulations near islands and reefs.The proposed three methods of grid techniques of WAVEWATCH III(WW3)are assessed by using on-site measured data which was collected and accumulated for about 5 years since August 2014 by a wave observation system deployed inside and outside a reef lagoon in South China Sea.In the assessments,the wave statistics including the correlation coefficients,root mean square errors,and their variances are used to quantify the precisions of the simulation results of the significant wave heights,mean wave periods,and peak wave directions at two sites.Among the three methods,the Multi-scale Zone and Multi-scale grid Technique(MZMGT)established on unstructured triangular grids exhibits better results in terms of the accuracy and CPU cost.In addition,the bimodal feature of wave spectra was observed at both sites of the reef lagoon in different typhoon events.The wave characteristics inside the reef lagoon and open sea are also analyzed.

The characteristics of waves around an entrance of a lagoon in South China Sea

The characteristics of the waves around a lagoon entrance in South China Sea were observed during the past one and half years based on the wave measurements.The measured results show that the monsoon plays an important role.In summer,waves mostly come from the southeast,among which the wave components of non-dimensional periods larger than 0.2 are fetch-trapped waves.In winter the waves may be divided into two groups,the fetch-trapped waves and the waves from the open sea.The skewness of the directional distribution functions is within+8 around zero.The power relationship between the direction spread and kurtosis is also investigated.Besides,it is found that the waves with the significant wave heights greater than 1.5 m are caused by typhoons or cold air.The frequency components of wave energy driven by cold air appear in the high frequency range at first,and change to the lower frequency range afterwards.The waves driven by typhoon mostly come from the open sea.

THE EFFECT OF THE LONG WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ON TYPHOON TRACKS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC

The normal typhoon paths with 109 cases during the period from 1960 to 1979 have been analysed in this study. These paths are divided into 7 categories. The effect of the position and intensity of large- scale wave on each category has been examined. It has been discovered, as a result, that this effect is rather evident. On the other hand, the teleconnection between different centers of anion does exist. A simple theoretical analysis indicates that the teleconnection is related to the propagation of wave energy. Thus, to predict correctly typhoon path, not only the steering flow of typhoon, but also, more significantly, the behavior of large-scale wave over the Northern Hemisphere must be taken into consideration.

Wave-induced flow and its influence on ridge erosion and channel deposition in Lanshayang channel of radial sand ridges

Very limited modeling studies were available of the wave-induced current under the complex hydrodynamic conditions in the South Yellow Sea Radial Sand Ridge area（SYSRSR）. Partly it is due to the difficulties in estimating the influence of the waveinduced current in this area. In this study, a coupled 3-D storm-surge-wave model is built. In this model, the time-dependent varying Collins coefficient with the water level method（TCL） are used. The wave-flow environment in the Lanshayang Channel（LSYC） during the ＂Winnie＂ typhoon is successfully represented by this model. According to the modelling results, at a high water level（HWL）, the wave-induced current similar to the long-shore current will emerge in the shallow area of the ridges, and has two different motion trends correlated with the morphological characteristics of the ridges. The wave-induced current velocity could be as strong as 1 m/s, which is at the same magnitude as the tidal current. This result is verified by the bathymetric changes in the LSYC during the ＂Matsa＂ typhoon. Thus, the wave-induced current may be one of the driven force of the ridge erosion and channel deposition in the SYSRSR. These conclusions will help to further study the mechanism of the ridge erosion and channel deposition in the SYSRSR.