Based on the new data of drilling, seismic, logging, test and experiments, the key scientific problems in reservoir formation, hydrocarbon accumulation and efficient oil and gas development methods of deep and ultra-d...Based on the new data of drilling, seismic, logging, test and experiments, the key scientific problems in reservoir formation, hydrocarbon accumulation and efficient oil and gas development methods of deep and ultra-deep marine carbonate strata in the central and western superimposed basin in China have been continuously studied.(1) The fault-controlled carbonate reservoir and the ancient dolomite reservoir are two important types of reservoirs in the deep and ultra-deep marine carbonates. According to the formation origin, the large-scale fault-controlled reservoir can be further divided into three types:fracture-cavity reservoir formed by tectonic rupture, fault and fluid-controlled reservoir, and shoal and mound reservoir modified by fault and fluid. The Sinian microbial dolomites are developed in the aragonite-dolomite sea. The predominant mound-shoal facies, early dolomitization and dissolution, acidic fluid environment, anhydrite capping and overpressure are the key factors for the formation and preservation of high-quality dolomite reservoirs.(2) The organic-rich shale of the marine carbonate strata in the superimposed basins of central and western China are mainly developed in the sedimentary environments of deep-water shelf of passive continental margin and carbonate ramp. The tectonic-thermal system is the important factor controlling the hydrocarbon phase in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs, and the reformed dynamic field controls oil and gas accumulation and distribution in deep and ultra-deep marine carbonates.(3) During the development of high-sulfur gas fields such as Puguang, sulfur precipitation blocks the wellbore. The application of sulfur solvent combined with coiled tubing has a significant effect on removing sulfur blockage. The integrated technology of dual-medium modeling and numerical simulation based on sedimentary simulation can accurately characterize the spatial distribution and changes of the water invasion front.Afterward, water control strategies for the entire life cycle of gas wells are proposed, including flow rate management, water drainage and plugging.(4) In the development of ultra-deep fault-controlled fractured-cavity reservoirs, well production declines rapidly due to the permeability reduction, which is a consequence of reservoir stress-sensitivity. The rapid phase change in condensate gas reservoir and pressure decline significantly affect the recovery of condensate oil. Innovative development methods such as gravity drive through water and natural gas injection, and natural gas drive through top injection and bottom production for ultra-deep fault-controlled condensate gas reservoirs are proposed. By adopting the hierarchical geological modeling and the fluid-solid-thermal coupled numerical simulation, the accuracy of producing performance prediction in oil and gas reservoirs has been effectively improved.展开更多
The research progress of deep and ultra-deep drilling fluid technology systematically reviewed,the key problems existing are analyzed,and the future development direction is proposed.In view of the high temperature,hi...The research progress of deep and ultra-deep drilling fluid technology systematically reviewed,the key problems existing are analyzed,and the future development direction is proposed.In view of the high temperature,high pressure and high stress,fracture development,wellbore instability,drilling fluid lost circulation and other problems faced in the process of deep and ultra-deep complex oil and gas drilling,scholars have developed deep and ultra-deep high-temperature and high-salt resistant water-based drilling fluid technology,high-temperature resistant oil-based/synthetic drilling fluid technology,drilling fluid technology for reservoir protection and drilling fluid lost circulation control technology.However,there are still some key problems such as insufficient resistance to high temperature,high pressure and high stress,wellbore instability and serious lost circulation.Therefore,the development direction of deep and ultra-deep drilling fluid technology in the future is proposed:(1)The technology of high-temperature and high-salt resistant water-based drilling fluid should focus on improving high temperature stability,improving rheological properties,strengthening filtration control and improving compatibility with formation.(2)The technology of oil-based/synthetic drilling fluid resistant to high temperature should further study in the aspects of easily degradable environmental protection additives with low toxicity such as high temperature stabilizer,rheological regulator and related supporting technologies.(3)The drilling fluid technology for reservoir protection should be devoted to the development of new high-performance additives and materials,and further improve the real-time monitoring technology by introducing advanced sensor networks and artificial intelligence algorithms.(4)The lost circulation control of drilling fluid should pay more attention to the integration and application of intelligent technology,the research and application of high-performance plugging materials,the exploration of diversified plugging techniques and methods,and the improvement of environmental protection and production safety awareness.展开更多
Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preced...Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.展开更多
Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum ...Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum was 4.175 mill.km^(2), 0.794 mill.km^(2) less than the minimum in 2023. However, the ice extent had decreased by 0.432 mill.km^(2) compared with 2022. Nevertheless, the summer melting in 2023 was remarkably less than expected when considering the strong heat waves in the atmosphere and ocean, with record temperatures set around the world. In general, there is a high correlation between the long-term decrease in sea-ice extent and the increasing CO_(2) in the atmosphere, where the increase of CO_(2) in recent decades explains about 80% of the decrease in sea ice in September, while the remainder is caused by natural variability.展开更多
The aim of this investigation is to find possible changes in ultra-deep earthquakes (UDQ) during different seasons of the year. In the acquisition of data for our previous work we observed an inexplicable pattern of g...The aim of this investigation is to find possible changes in ultra-deep earthquakes (UDQ) during different seasons of the year. In the acquisition of data for our previous work we observed an inexplicable pattern of growth of ultra-deep tremors (UDQ) during the studied period. Apparently, there is no viable explanation for growth occurring at such a level, presumably in the asthenosphere. Current research and theories developed for the inner layers of the Earth do not explain such variations. Therefore, a possible explanation would be in external factors such as the seasons of the year, which are determined by changes in the Earth’s axial tilt, and therefore the portion of the earth that is angled toward the sun. This paper focuses exclusively on UDQ events. To simplify the calculations, we consider four main locations;this includes one more region than our previous paper but includes only UDQ data. The results showed that during spring and autumn UDQ events grew slightly in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. It is also suggested that a contributor to UDQ events is friction from the subducting lithosphere against the continental plates.展开更多
Fault seals are significant for petroleum exploration and production.This study summarizes the fault sealing impacting factors,including lithological juxtaposition,mud smearing,fault rocks and the fault plane stress s...Fault seals are significant for petroleum exploration and production.This study summarizes the fault sealing impacting factors,including lithological juxtaposition,mud smearing,fault rocks and the fault plane stress states,as well as evaluation methods like Allan maps and Shale Gouge Ratio(SGR).The seal evaluation for a wrench fault focuses on its particular structural features.The evaluation methods were applied to the Jinma-Yazihe structure and the Shunbei oilfield.The source rock is the Xujiahe Formation of the Upper Triassic,the reservoirs and caprocks being of the Shaximiao Formation of the Lower Jurassic.The fault sealing evaluations in major faults proved the reservoir formation processes in the wells Jinfo 1(JF1)and Chuanya 609(CY-609),based on the editions of the Allan map showing lithological juxtaposition,the calculation of SGR showing mud smear and analyses of fault stress states.The analyses of stress states were also applied to Shunbei 5 strike-slip fault in the Shunbei area in Tarim Basin.The various sections along the fault were of different mechanical properties,such as compression and extension.Petroleum exploration has demonstrated that the extensional sections are more favorable for oil accumulation than the compressional sections.These evolutionary methods and other understandings will help in analyses of deep fault sealing.展开更多
The Well Tashen 5(TS5),drilled and completed at a vertical depth of 9017 m in the Tabei Uplift of the Tarim Basin,NW China,is the deepest well in Asia.It has been producing both oil and gas from the Sinian at a depth ...The Well Tashen 5(TS5),drilled and completed at a vertical depth of 9017 m in the Tabei Uplift of the Tarim Basin,NW China,is the deepest well in Asia.It has been producing both oil and gas from the Sinian at a depth of 8780e8840 m,also the deepest in Asia in terms of oil discovery.In this paper,the geochemical characteristics of Sinian oil and gas from the well were investigated and compared with those of Cambrian oil and gas discovered in the same basin.The oil samples,with Pr/Ph ratio of 0.78 and a whole oil carbon isotopic value of31.6‰,have geochemical characteristics similar to those of Ordovician oils from the No.1 fault in the North Shuntuoguole area(also named Shunbei area)and the Middle Cambrian oil from wells Zhongshen 1(ZS1)and Zhongshen 5(ZS5)of Tazhong Uplift.The maturity of light hydrocarbons,diamondoids and aromatic fractions all suggest an approximate maturity of 1.5%e1.7%Ro for the samples.The(4-+3-)methyldiamantane concentration of the samples is 113.5 mg/g,indicating intense cracking with a cracking degree of about 80%,which is consistent with the high bottom hole temperature(179℃).The Sinian gas samples are dry with a dryness coefficient of 0.97.The gas is a mixture of kerogen-cracking gas and oil-cracking gas and has Ro values ranging between 1.5%and 1.7%,and methane carbon isotopic values of41.6‰.Based on the equivalent vitrinite reflectance(R_(eqv)=1.51%e1.61%)and the thermal evolution of source rocks from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation of the same well,it is proposed that the Sinian oil and gas be mainly sourced from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation during the Himalayan period but probably also be joined by hydrocarbon of higher maturity that migrated from other source rocks in deeper formations.The discovery of Sinian oil and gas from Well TS5 suggests that the ancient ultra-deep strata in the northern Tarim Basin have the potential for finding volatile oil or condensate reservoirs.展开更多
Deep and ultra-deep reservoirs have gradually become the primary focus of hydrocarbon exploration as a result of a series of significant discoveries in deep hydrocarbon exploration worldwide.These reservoirs present u...Deep and ultra-deep reservoirs have gradually become the primary focus of hydrocarbon exploration as a result of a series of significant discoveries in deep hydrocarbon exploration worldwide.These reservoirs present unique challenges due to their deep burial depth(4500-8882 m),low matrix permeability,complex crustal stress conditions,high temperature and pressure(HTHP,150-200℃,105-155 MPa),coupled with high salinity of formation water.Consequently,the costs associated with their exploitation and development are exceptionally high.In deep and ultra-deep reservoirs,hydraulic fracturing is commonly used to achieve high and stable production.During hydraulic fracturing,a substantial volume of fluid is injected into the reservoir.However,statistical analysis reveals that the flowback rate is typically less than 30%,leaving the majority of the fluid trapped within the reservoir.Therefore,hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs not only enhances the reservoir permeability by creating artificial fractures but also damages reservoirs due to the fracturing fluids involved.The challenging“three-high”environment of a deep reservoir,characterized by high temperature,high pressure,and high salinity,exacerbates conventional forms of damage,including water sensitivity,retention of fracturing fluids,rock creep,and proppant breakage.In addition,specific damage mechanisms come into play,such as fracturing fluid decomposition at elevated temperatures and proppant diagenetic reactions at HTHP conditions.Presently,the foremost concern in deep oil and gas development lies in effectively assessing the damage inflicted on these reservoirs by hydraulic fracturing,comprehending the underlying mechanisms,and selecting appropriate solutions.It's noteworthy that the majority of existing studies on reservoir damage primarily focus on conventional reservoirs,with limited attention given to deep reservoirs and a lack of systematic summaries.In light of this,our approach entails initially summarizing the current knowledge pertaining to the types of fracturing fluids employed in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs.Subsequently,we delve into a systematic examination of the damage processes and mechanisms caused by fracturing fluids within the context of hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs,taking into account the unique reservoir characteristics of high temperature,high pressure,and high in-situ stress.In addition,we provide an overview of research progress related to high-temperature deep reservoir fracturing fluid and the damage of aqueous fracturing fluids to rock matrix,both artificial and natural fractures,and sand-packed fractures.We conclude by offering a summary of current research advancements and future directions,which hold significant potential for facilitating the efficient development of deep oil and gas reservoirs while effectively mitigating reservoir damage.展开更多
In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic...In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.展开更多
Based on the recent oil and gas discoveries and geological understandings on the ultra-deep strata of sedimentary basins, the formation and occurrence of hydrocarbons in the ultra-deep strata were investigated with re...Based on the recent oil and gas discoveries and geological understandings on the ultra-deep strata of sedimentary basins, the formation and occurrence of hydrocarbons in the ultra-deep strata were investigated with respect to the processes of basin formation, hydrocarbon generation, reservoir formation and hydrocarbon accumulation, and key issues in ultra-deep oil and gas exploration were discussed. The ultra-deep strata in China underwent two extensional-convergent cycles in the Meso-Neoproterozoic Era and the Early Paleozoic Era respectively, with the tectonic-sedimentary differentiation producing the spatially adjacent source-reservoir assemblages. There are diverse large-scale carbonate reservoirs such as mound-beach, dolomite, karst fracture-vug, fractured karst and faulted zone, as well as over-pressured clastic rock and fractured bedrock reservoirs. Hydrocarbons were accumulated in multiple stages, accompanied by adjusting and finalizing in the late stage. The distribution of hydrocarbons is controlled by high-energy beach zone, regional unconformity, paleo-high and large-scale fault zone. The ultra-deep strata endow oil and gas resources as 33% of the remaining total resources, suggesting an important successive domain for hydrocarbon development in China. The large-scale pool-forming geologic units and giant hydrocarbon enrichment zones in ultra-deep strata are key and promising prospects for delivering successive discoveries. The geological conditions and enrichment zone prediction of ultra-deep oil and gas are key issues of petroleum geology.展开更多
The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface te...The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.展开更多
In recent years,deep learning methods have gradually been applied to prediction tasks related to Arctic sea ice concentration,but relatively little research has been conducted for larger spatial and temporal scales,ma...In recent years,deep learning methods have gradually been applied to prediction tasks related to Arctic sea ice concentration,but relatively little research has been conducted for larger spatial and temporal scales,mainly due to the limited time coverage of observations and reanalysis data.Meanwhile,deep learning predictions of sea ice thickness(SIT)have yet to receive ample attention.In this study,two data-driven deep learning(DL)models are built based on the ConvLSTM and fully convolutional U-net(FC-Unet)algorithms and trained using CMIP6 historical simulations for transfer learning and fine-tuned using reanalysis/observations.These models enable monthly predictions of Arctic SIT without considering the complex physical processes involved.Through comprehensive assessments of prediction skills by season and region,the results suggest that using a broader set of CMIP6 data for transfer learning,as well as incorporating multiple climate variables as predictors,contribute to better prediction results,although both DL models can effectively predict the spatiotemporal features of SIT anomalies.Regarding the predicted SIT anomalies of the FC-Unet model,the spatial correlations with reanalysis reach an average level of 89%over all months,while the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients are close to unity in most cases.The models also demonstrate robust performances in predicting SIT and SIE during extreme events.The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed deep transfer learning models in predicting Arctic SIT can facilitate more accurate pan-Arctic predictions,aiding climate change research and real-time business applications.展开更多
The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively ...The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.展开更多
Our previous research has found that deep or very deep earthquakes can be influenced by different seasons of the year. It also indicates that other factors may impact the seasonality in addition to these external para...Our previous research has found that deep or very deep earthquakes can be influenced by different seasons of the year. It also indicates that other factors may impact the seasonality in addition to these external parameters. This would explain why the response from Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere for the seasons is different. In the current research, we will focus on very deep earthquakes over a very long period, 1950-2017, which have high magnitude of M ≥ 6 with depth ≥ 500 km and named ultra-deep earthquakes (UDQ). We will separate such events by coordinates of each subduction area located in the Pacific Ring of Fire to find which effects the seasons have on these specific areas. Former tomographic studies in such regions pointed out that each area mentioned had systematic differences in the slab configuration along arcs. Our conclusions showed that those discrepancies may influence the enhancement of earthquakes in some seasons or months.展开更多
High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a b...High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic effects of climatic and environmental factors were involved in the development of coral reefs in the northern SCS.Thus,the cessation of coral reef development during the Holocene in the northern SCS was probably associated with the dry and cold climate in South China,as reflected in the synchronous weakening of the ENSO and East Asian summer monsoon induced by the reduction of the 65°N summer insolation,which forced the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.展开更多
In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so far.In this study,the physical and mechanical propertie...In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so far.In this study,the physical and mechanical properties of silt and sand from the Yellow Sea were measured using a direct shear apparatus and their microstructures were observed using a scanning electron microscope.The test results suggest that the shear strength of silt and sand increases linearly with the increase of normal stress.Based on the direct shear test,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the section surface of sand.It is observed that the section surface becomes rough,with many“V”‐shaped cracks.Many particles appear on the surface of the silt structure and tend to be disintegrated.The X‐ray diffraction experiment reveals that the sand and silt have different compositions.The shear strength of sand is slightly greater than that of silt under high stress,which is related to the shape of soil particles and the mineral composition.These results can be a reference for further study of other soils in the Yellow Sea;meanwhile,they can serve as soil parameters for the stability and durability analyses of offshore infrastructure construction.展开更多
Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Ar...The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Aral Sea have attracted widespread attention, and the alleviation of the Aral Sea ecological crisis has reached a consensus among the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan). In the past decades, many ecological management measures have been implemented for the ecological restoration of the Aral Sea. However, due to the lack of regional planning and zoning, the results are not ideal. In this study, we mapped the ecological zoning of the Aral Sea from the perspective of ecological restoration based on soil type, soil salinity, surface water, groundwater table, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), land cover, and aerosol optical depth(AOD) data. Soil salinization and salt dust are the most prominent ecological problems in the Aral Sea. We divided the Aral Sea into 7 first-level ecological restoration subregions(North Aral Sea catchment area in the downstream of the Syr Darya River(Subregion Ⅰ);artificial flood overflow area in the downstream of the Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅱ);physical/chemical remediation area of the salt dust source area in the eastern part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅲ);physical/chemical remediation area of severe salinization in the central part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅳ);existing water surface and potential restoration area of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅴ);Aral Sea vegetation natural recovery area(Subregion Ⅵ);and vegetation planting area with slight salinization in the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅶ)) and 14 second-level ecological restoration subregions according to the ecological zoning principles. Implementable measures are proposed for each ecological restoration subregion. For Subregion Ⅰ and Subregion Ⅱ with lower elevations, artificial flooding should be carried out to restore the surface of the Aral Sea. Subregion Ⅲ and Subregion Ⅳ have severe salinization, making it difficult for vegetation to grow. In these subregions, it is recommended to cover and pave the areas with green biomatrix coverings and environmentally sustainable bonding materials. In Subregion Ⅴ located in the central and western parts of the South Aral Sea, surface water recharge should be increased to ensure that this subregion can maintain normal water levels. In Subregion Ⅵ and Subregion Ⅶ where natural conditions are suitable for vegetation growth, measures such as afforestation and buffer zones should be implemented to protect vegetation. This study could provide a reference basis for future comprehensive ecological management and restoration of the Aral Sea.展开更多
Many locations with concentrated hydrates at vents have confirmed the presence of abundant thermogenic gas in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB).However,the impact of deep structures on gasbearing fluids migra...Many locations with concentrated hydrates at vents have confirmed the presence of abundant thermogenic gas in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB).However,the impact of deep structures on gasbearing fluids migration and gas hydrates distribution in tectonically inactive regions is still unclear.In this study,the authors apply high-resolution 3D seismic and logging while drilling(LWD)data from the middle of the QDNB to investigate the influence of deep-large faults on gas chimneys and preferred gasescape pipes.The findings reveal the following:(1)Two significant deep-large faults,F1 and F2,developed on the edge of the Songnan Low Uplift,control the dominant migration of thermogenic hydrocarbons and determine the initial locations of gas chimneys.(2)The formation of gas chimneys is likely related to fault activation and reactivation.Gas chimney 1 is primarily arises from convergent fluid migration resulting from the intersection of the two faults,while the gas chimney 2 benefits from a steeper fault plane and shorter migration distance of fault F2.(3)Most gas-escape pipes are situated near the apex of the two faults.Their reactivations facilitate free gas flow into the GHSZ and contribute to the formation of fracture‐filling hydrates.展开更多
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simu...To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaCorporate Innovative Development Joint Fund(U19B6003)。
文摘Based on the new data of drilling, seismic, logging, test and experiments, the key scientific problems in reservoir formation, hydrocarbon accumulation and efficient oil and gas development methods of deep and ultra-deep marine carbonate strata in the central and western superimposed basin in China have been continuously studied.(1) The fault-controlled carbonate reservoir and the ancient dolomite reservoir are two important types of reservoirs in the deep and ultra-deep marine carbonates. According to the formation origin, the large-scale fault-controlled reservoir can be further divided into three types:fracture-cavity reservoir formed by tectonic rupture, fault and fluid-controlled reservoir, and shoal and mound reservoir modified by fault and fluid. The Sinian microbial dolomites are developed in the aragonite-dolomite sea. The predominant mound-shoal facies, early dolomitization and dissolution, acidic fluid environment, anhydrite capping and overpressure are the key factors for the formation and preservation of high-quality dolomite reservoirs.(2) The organic-rich shale of the marine carbonate strata in the superimposed basins of central and western China are mainly developed in the sedimentary environments of deep-water shelf of passive continental margin and carbonate ramp. The tectonic-thermal system is the important factor controlling the hydrocarbon phase in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs, and the reformed dynamic field controls oil and gas accumulation and distribution in deep and ultra-deep marine carbonates.(3) During the development of high-sulfur gas fields such as Puguang, sulfur precipitation blocks the wellbore. The application of sulfur solvent combined with coiled tubing has a significant effect on removing sulfur blockage. The integrated technology of dual-medium modeling and numerical simulation based on sedimentary simulation can accurately characterize the spatial distribution and changes of the water invasion front.Afterward, water control strategies for the entire life cycle of gas wells are proposed, including flow rate management, water drainage and plugging.(4) In the development of ultra-deep fault-controlled fractured-cavity reservoirs, well production declines rapidly due to the permeability reduction, which is a consequence of reservoir stress-sensitivity. The rapid phase change in condensate gas reservoir and pressure decline significantly affect the recovery of condensate oil. Innovative development methods such as gravity drive through water and natural gas injection, and natural gas drive through top injection and bottom production for ultra-deep fault-controlled condensate gas reservoirs are proposed. By adopting the hierarchical geological modeling and the fluid-solid-thermal coupled numerical simulation, the accuracy of producing performance prediction in oil and gas reservoirs has been effectively improved.
基金Supported by the Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China(52288101,52174014,52374023)。
文摘The research progress of deep and ultra-deep drilling fluid technology systematically reviewed,the key problems existing are analyzed,and the future development direction is proposed.In view of the high temperature,high pressure and high stress,fracture development,wellbore instability,drilling fluid lost circulation and other problems faced in the process of deep and ultra-deep complex oil and gas drilling,scholars have developed deep and ultra-deep high-temperature and high-salt resistant water-based drilling fluid technology,high-temperature resistant oil-based/synthetic drilling fluid technology,drilling fluid technology for reservoir protection and drilling fluid lost circulation control technology.However,there are still some key problems such as insufficient resistance to high temperature,high pressure and high stress,wellbore instability and serious lost circulation.Therefore,the development direction of deep and ultra-deep drilling fluid technology in the future is proposed:(1)The technology of high-temperature and high-salt resistant water-based drilling fluid should focus on improving high temperature stability,improving rheological properties,strengthening filtration control and improving compatibility with formation.(2)The technology of oil-based/synthetic drilling fluid resistant to high temperature should further study in the aspects of easily degradable environmental protection additives with low toxicity such as high temperature stabilizer,rheological regulator and related supporting technologies.(3)The drilling fluid technology for reservoir protection should be devoted to the development of new high-performance additives and materials,and further improve the real-time monitoring technology by introducing advanced sensor networks and artificial intelligence algorithms.(4)The lost circulation control of drilling fluid should pay more attention to the integration and application of intelligent technology,the research and application of high-performance plugging materials,the exploration of diversified plugging techniques and methods,and the improvement of environmental protection and production safety awareness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China [grant numbers 41991281 and 42005028]。
文摘Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.
文摘Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum was 4.175 mill.km^(2), 0.794 mill.km^(2) less than the minimum in 2023. However, the ice extent had decreased by 0.432 mill.km^(2) compared with 2022. Nevertheless, the summer melting in 2023 was remarkably less than expected when considering the strong heat waves in the atmosphere and ocean, with record temperatures set around the world. In general, there is a high correlation between the long-term decrease in sea-ice extent and the increasing CO_(2) in the atmosphere, where the increase of CO_(2) in recent decades explains about 80% of the decrease in sea ice in September, while the remainder is caused by natural variability.
文摘The aim of this investigation is to find possible changes in ultra-deep earthquakes (UDQ) during different seasons of the year. In the acquisition of data for our previous work we observed an inexplicable pattern of growth of ultra-deep tremors (UDQ) during the studied period. Apparently, there is no viable explanation for growth occurring at such a level, presumably in the asthenosphere. Current research and theories developed for the inner layers of the Earth do not explain such variations. Therefore, a possible explanation would be in external factors such as the seasons of the year, which are determined by changes in the Earth’s axial tilt, and therefore the portion of the earth that is angled toward the sun. This paper focuses exclusively on UDQ events. To simplify the calculations, we consider four main locations;this includes one more region than our previous paper but includes only UDQ data. The results showed that during spring and autumn UDQ events grew slightly in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. It is also suggested that a contributor to UDQ events is friction from the subducting lithosphere against the continental plates.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2017YFC0603105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42172138)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA14010306)。
文摘Fault seals are significant for petroleum exploration and production.This study summarizes the fault sealing impacting factors,including lithological juxtaposition,mud smearing,fault rocks and the fault plane stress states,as well as evaluation methods like Allan maps and Shale Gouge Ratio(SGR).The seal evaluation for a wrench fault focuses on its particular structural features.The evaluation methods were applied to the Jinma-Yazihe structure and the Shunbei oilfield.The source rock is the Xujiahe Formation of the Upper Triassic,the reservoirs and caprocks being of the Shaximiao Formation of the Lower Jurassic.The fault sealing evaluations in major faults proved the reservoir formation processes in the wells Jinfo 1(JF1)and Chuanya 609(CY-609),based on the editions of the Allan map showing lithological juxtaposition,the calculation of SGR showing mud smear and analyses of fault stress states.The analyses of stress states were also applied to Shunbei 5 strike-slip fault in the Shunbei area in Tarim Basin.The various sections along the fault were of different mechanical properties,such as compression and extension.Petroleum exploration has demonstrated that the extensional sections are more favorable for oil accumulation than the compressional sections.These evolutionary methods and other understandings will help in analyses of deep fault sealing.
基金funded by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.:42272167,U19B6003 and 41772153)projects of the Science&Technology Department of Sinopec(Nos.:P22121,P21058-8 and P23167).
文摘The Well Tashen 5(TS5),drilled and completed at a vertical depth of 9017 m in the Tabei Uplift of the Tarim Basin,NW China,is the deepest well in Asia.It has been producing both oil and gas from the Sinian at a depth of 8780e8840 m,also the deepest in Asia in terms of oil discovery.In this paper,the geochemical characteristics of Sinian oil and gas from the well were investigated and compared with those of Cambrian oil and gas discovered in the same basin.The oil samples,with Pr/Ph ratio of 0.78 and a whole oil carbon isotopic value of31.6‰,have geochemical characteristics similar to those of Ordovician oils from the No.1 fault in the North Shuntuoguole area(also named Shunbei area)and the Middle Cambrian oil from wells Zhongshen 1(ZS1)and Zhongshen 5(ZS5)of Tazhong Uplift.The maturity of light hydrocarbons,diamondoids and aromatic fractions all suggest an approximate maturity of 1.5%e1.7%Ro for the samples.The(4-+3-)methyldiamantane concentration of the samples is 113.5 mg/g,indicating intense cracking with a cracking degree of about 80%,which is consistent with the high bottom hole temperature(179℃).The Sinian gas samples are dry with a dryness coefficient of 0.97.The gas is a mixture of kerogen-cracking gas and oil-cracking gas and has Ro values ranging between 1.5%and 1.7%,and methane carbon isotopic values of41.6‰.Based on the equivalent vitrinite reflectance(R_(eqv)=1.51%e1.61%)and the thermal evolution of source rocks from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation of the same well,it is proposed that the Sinian oil and gas be mainly sourced from the Cambrian Yu'ertusi Formation during the Himalayan period but probably also be joined by hydrocarbon of higher maturity that migrated from other source rocks in deeper formations.The discovery of Sinian oil and gas from Well TS5 suggests that the ancient ultra-deep strata in the northern Tarim Basin have the potential for finding volatile oil or condensate reservoirs.
基金Dao-Bing Wang was supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation Project(No.3222030)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274002)+1 种基金the PetroChina Science and Technology Innovation Foundation Project(No.2021DQ02-0201)Fu-Jian Zhou was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52174045).
文摘Deep and ultra-deep reservoirs have gradually become the primary focus of hydrocarbon exploration as a result of a series of significant discoveries in deep hydrocarbon exploration worldwide.These reservoirs present unique challenges due to their deep burial depth(4500-8882 m),low matrix permeability,complex crustal stress conditions,high temperature and pressure(HTHP,150-200℃,105-155 MPa),coupled with high salinity of formation water.Consequently,the costs associated with their exploitation and development are exceptionally high.In deep and ultra-deep reservoirs,hydraulic fracturing is commonly used to achieve high and stable production.During hydraulic fracturing,a substantial volume of fluid is injected into the reservoir.However,statistical analysis reveals that the flowback rate is typically less than 30%,leaving the majority of the fluid trapped within the reservoir.Therefore,hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs not only enhances the reservoir permeability by creating artificial fractures but also damages reservoirs due to the fracturing fluids involved.The challenging“three-high”environment of a deep reservoir,characterized by high temperature,high pressure,and high salinity,exacerbates conventional forms of damage,including water sensitivity,retention of fracturing fluids,rock creep,and proppant breakage.In addition,specific damage mechanisms come into play,such as fracturing fluid decomposition at elevated temperatures and proppant diagenetic reactions at HTHP conditions.Presently,the foremost concern in deep oil and gas development lies in effectively assessing the damage inflicted on these reservoirs by hydraulic fracturing,comprehending the underlying mechanisms,and selecting appropriate solutions.It's noteworthy that the majority of existing studies on reservoir damage primarily focus on conventional reservoirs,with limited attention given to deep reservoirs and a lack of systematic summaries.In light of this,our approach entails initially summarizing the current knowledge pertaining to the types of fracturing fluids employed in deep and ultra-deep reservoirs.Subsequently,we delve into a systematic examination of the damage processes and mechanisms caused by fracturing fluids within the context of hydraulic fracturing in deep reservoirs,taking into account the unique reservoir characteristics of high temperature,high pressure,and high in-situ stress.In addition,we provide an overview of research progress related to high-temperature deep reservoir fracturing fluid and the damage of aqueous fracturing fluids to rock matrix,both artificial and natural fractures,and sand-packed fractures.We conclude by offering a summary of current research advancements and future directions,which hold significant potential for facilitating the efficient development of deep oil and gas reservoirs while effectively mitigating reservoir damage.
基金The Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010730)National Natural Science Foundation of China(32001647)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(31972022)Financial and moral assistance supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011996)111 Project(B17018)。
文摘In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U19B6003-01,42330810).
文摘Based on the recent oil and gas discoveries and geological understandings on the ultra-deep strata of sedimentary basins, the formation and occurrence of hydrocarbons in the ultra-deep strata were investigated with respect to the processes of basin formation, hydrocarbon generation, reservoir formation and hydrocarbon accumulation, and key issues in ultra-deep oil and gas exploration were discussed. The ultra-deep strata in China underwent two extensional-convergent cycles in the Meso-Neoproterozoic Era and the Early Paleozoic Era respectively, with the tectonic-sedimentary differentiation producing the spatially adjacent source-reservoir assemblages. There are diverse large-scale carbonate reservoirs such as mound-beach, dolomite, karst fracture-vug, fractured karst and faulted zone, as well as over-pressured clastic rock and fractured bedrock reservoirs. Hydrocarbons were accumulated in multiple stages, accompanied by adjusting and finalizing in the late stage. The distribution of hydrocarbons is controlled by high-energy beach zone, regional unconformity, paleo-high and large-scale fault zone. The ultra-deep strata endow oil and gas resources as 33% of the remaining total resources, suggesting an important successive domain for hydrocarbon development in China. The large-scale pool-forming geologic units and giant hydrocarbon enrichment zones in ultra-deep strata are key and promising prospects for delivering successive discoveries. The geological conditions and enrichment zone prediction of ultra-deep oil and gas are key issues of petroleum geology.
基金supported by the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275006 and 42030604)+1 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515011705)the Science and Technology Research Project for Society of Foshan(Grant No.2120001008761).
文摘The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41976193 and 42176243).
文摘In recent years,deep learning methods have gradually been applied to prediction tasks related to Arctic sea ice concentration,but relatively little research has been conducted for larger spatial and temporal scales,mainly due to the limited time coverage of observations and reanalysis data.Meanwhile,deep learning predictions of sea ice thickness(SIT)have yet to receive ample attention.In this study,two data-driven deep learning(DL)models are built based on the ConvLSTM and fully convolutional U-net(FC-Unet)algorithms and trained using CMIP6 historical simulations for transfer learning and fine-tuned using reanalysis/observations.These models enable monthly predictions of Arctic SIT without considering the complex physical processes involved.Through comprehensive assessments of prediction skills by season and region,the results suggest that using a broader set of CMIP6 data for transfer learning,as well as incorporating multiple climate variables as predictors,contribute to better prediction results,although both DL models can effectively predict the spatiotemporal features of SIT anomalies.Regarding the predicted SIT anomalies of the FC-Unet model,the spatial correlations with reanalysis reach an average level of 89%over all months,while the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients are close to unity in most cases.The models also demonstrate robust performances in predicting SIT and SIE during extreme events.The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed deep transfer learning models in predicting Arctic SIT can facilitate more accurate pan-Arctic predictions,aiding climate change research and real-time business applications.
基金partly supported by the Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Agreement No.075-15-2021-577)the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No.23-47-00104)+2 种基金funded by the Research Council of Norway (Grant No.Combined 328935)the support of the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit with funding from the Trond Mohn Foundation (Grant No.BFS2018TMT01)the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42261134532)。
文摘The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.
文摘Our previous research has found that deep or very deep earthquakes can be influenced by different seasons of the year. It also indicates that other factors may impact the seasonality in addition to these external parameters. This would explain why the response from Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere for the seasons is different. In the current research, we will focus on very deep earthquakes over a very long period, 1950-2017, which have high magnitude of M ≥ 6 with depth ≥ 500 km and named ultra-deep earthquakes (UDQ). We will separate such events by coordinates of each subduction area located in the Pacific Ring of Fire to find which effects the seasons have on these specific areas. Former tomographic studies in such regions pointed out that each area mentioned had systematic differences in the slab configuration along arcs. Our conclusions showed that those discrepancies may influence the enhancement of earthquakes in some seasons or months.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42366002 and 41702182the National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2017YFA0603300the Guangxi Scientific Projects under contract No.2018GXNSFAA281293。
文摘High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic effects of climatic and environmental factors were involved in the development of coral reefs in the northern SCS.Thus,the cessation of coral reef development during the Holocene in the northern SCS was probably associated with the dry and cold climate in South China,as reflected in the synchronous weakening of the ENSO and East Asian summer monsoon induced by the reduction of the 65°N summer insolation,which forced the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,Grant/Award Number:BK20210527National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:42107158Training Program for Innovation and Entrepreneurship,China University of Mining and Technology。
文摘In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so far.In this study,the physical and mechanical properties of silt and sand from the Yellow Sea were measured using a direct shear apparatus and their microstructures were observed using a scanning electron microscope.The test results suggest that the shear strength of silt and sand increases linearly with the increase of normal stress.Based on the direct shear test,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the section surface of sand.It is observed that the section surface becomes rough,with many“V”‐shaped cracks.Many particles appear on the surface of the silt structure and tend to be disintegrated.The X‐ray diffraction experiment reveals that the sand and silt have different compositions.The shear strength of sand is slightly greater than that of silt under high stress,which is related to the shape of soil particles and the mineral composition.These results can be a reference for further study of other soils in the Yellow Sea;meanwhile,they can serve as soil parameters for the stability and durability analyses of offshore infrastructure construction.
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
基金supported by the Key R&D Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2022B03021)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030101)the Tianshan Talent Training Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2022TSYCLJ0011).
文摘The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Aral Sea have attracted widespread attention, and the alleviation of the Aral Sea ecological crisis has reached a consensus among the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan). In the past decades, many ecological management measures have been implemented for the ecological restoration of the Aral Sea. However, due to the lack of regional planning and zoning, the results are not ideal. In this study, we mapped the ecological zoning of the Aral Sea from the perspective of ecological restoration based on soil type, soil salinity, surface water, groundwater table, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), land cover, and aerosol optical depth(AOD) data. Soil salinization and salt dust are the most prominent ecological problems in the Aral Sea. We divided the Aral Sea into 7 first-level ecological restoration subregions(North Aral Sea catchment area in the downstream of the Syr Darya River(Subregion Ⅰ);artificial flood overflow area in the downstream of the Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅱ);physical/chemical remediation area of the salt dust source area in the eastern part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅲ);physical/chemical remediation area of severe salinization in the central part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅳ);existing water surface and potential restoration area of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅴ);Aral Sea vegetation natural recovery area(Subregion Ⅵ);and vegetation planting area with slight salinization in the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅶ)) and 14 second-level ecological restoration subregions according to the ecological zoning principles. Implementable measures are proposed for each ecological restoration subregion. For Subregion Ⅰ and Subregion Ⅱ with lower elevations, artificial flooding should be carried out to restore the surface of the Aral Sea. Subregion Ⅲ and Subregion Ⅳ have severe salinization, making it difficult for vegetation to grow. In these subregions, it is recommended to cover and pave the areas with green biomatrix coverings and environmentally sustainable bonding materials. In Subregion Ⅴ located in the central and western parts of the South Aral Sea, surface water recharge should be increased to ensure that this subregion can maintain normal water levels. In Subregion Ⅵ and Subregion Ⅶ where natural conditions are suitable for vegetation growth, measures such as afforestation and buffer zones should be implemented to protect vegetation. This study could provide a reference basis for future comprehensive ecological management and restoration of the Aral Sea.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42376221,42276083)Director Research Fund Project of Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey(2023GMGSJZJJ00030)+2 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFC2800901)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B030103003)the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20230064).
文摘Many locations with concentrated hydrates at vents have confirmed the presence of abundant thermogenic gas in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB).However,the impact of deep structures on gasbearing fluids migration and gas hydrates distribution in tectonically inactive regions is still unclear.In this study,the authors apply high-resolution 3D seismic and logging while drilling(LWD)data from the middle of the QDNB to investigate the influence of deep-large faults on gas chimneys and preferred gasescape pipes.The findings reveal the following:(1)Two significant deep-large faults,F1 and F2,developed on the edge of the Songnan Low Uplift,control the dominant migration of thermogenic hydrocarbons and determine the initial locations of gas chimneys.(2)The formation of gas chimneys is likely related to fault activation and reactivation.Gas chimney 1 is primarily arises from convergent fluid migration resulting from the intersection of the two faults,while the gas chimney 2 benefits from a steeper fault plane and shorter migration distance of fault F2.(3)Most gas-escape pipes are situated near the apex of the two faults.Their reactivations facilitate free gas flow into the GHSZ and contribute to the formation of fracture‐filling hydrates.
基金supported by the Chinese-Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project BASIC (Grant No.325440)the Horizon 2020 project APPLICATE (Grant No.727862)High-performance computing and storage resources were performed on resources provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (through projects NS8121K,NN8121K,NN2345K,NS2345K,NS9560K,NS9252K,and NS9034K)。
文摘To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.