Uncertainty quantification of inverse analysis for geomaterials using probabilistic programming

Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning: A Promising Tool for Trustworthy Fault Diagnosis

Recently,intelligent fault diagnosis based on deep learning has been extensively investigated,exhibiting state-of-the-art performance.However,the deep learning model is often not truly trusted by users due to the lack of interpretability of“black box”,which limits its deployment in safety-critical applications.A trusted fault diagnosis system requires that the faults can be accurately diagnosed in most cases,and the human in the deci-sion-making loop can be found to deal with the abnormal situa-tion when the models fail.In this paper,we explore a simplified method for quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in deterministic networks,called SAEU.In SAEU,Multivariate Gaussian distribution is employed in the deep architecture to compensate for the shortcomings of complexity and applicability of Bayesian neural networks.Based on the SAEU,we propose a unified uncertainty-aware deep learning framework(UU-DLF)to realize the grand vision of trustworthy fault diagnosis.Moreover,our UU-DLF effectively embodies the idea of“humans in the loop”,which not only allows for manual intervention in abnor-mal situations of diagnostic models,but also makes correspond-ing improvements on existing models based on traceability analy-sis.Finally,two experiments conducted on the gearbox and aero-engine bevel gears are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of UU-DLF and explore the effective reasons behind.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Determination of uncertainties of geomechanical parameters of metamorphic rocks using petrographic analyses

Geomechanical parameters of intact metamorphic rocks determined from laboratory testing remain highly uncertain because of the great intrinsic variability associated with the degrees of metamorphism.The aim of this paper is to develop a proper methodology to analyze the uncertainties of geomechanical characteristics by focusing on three domains,i.e.data treatment process,schistosity angle,and mineralogy.First,the variabilities of the geomechanical laboratory data of Westwood Mine(Quebec,Canada)were examined statistically by applying different data treatment techniques,through which the most suitable outlier methods were selected for each parameter using multiple decision-making criteria and engineering judgment.Results indicated that some methods exhibited better performance in identifying the possible outliers,although several others were unsuccessful because of their limitation in large sample size.The well-known boxplot method might not be the best outlier method for most geomechanical parameters because its calculated confidence range was not acceptable according to engineering judgment.However,several approaches,including adjusted boxplot,2MADe,and 2SD,worked very well in the detection of true outliers.Also,the statistical tests indicate that the best-fitting probability distribution function for geomechanical intact parameters might not be the normal distribution,unlike what is assumed in most geomechanical studies.Moreover,the negative effects of schistosity angle on the uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)variabilities were reduced by excluding the samples within a specific angle range where the UCS data present the highest variation.Finally,a petrographic analysis was conducted to assess the associated uncertainties such that a logical link was found between the dispersion and the variabilities of hard and soft minerals.

Uncertainty and disturbance estimator-based model predictive control for wet flue gas desulphurization system

Wet flue gas desulphurization technology is widely used in the industrial process for its capability of efficient pollution removal.The desulphurization control system,however,is subjected to complex reaction mechanisms and severe disturbances,which make for it difficult to achieve certain practically relevant control goals including emission and economic performances as well as system robustness.To address these challenges,a new robust control scheme based on uncertainty and disturbance estimator(UDE)and model predictive control(MPC)is proposed in this paper.The UDE is used to estimate and dynamically compensate acting disturbances,whereas MPC is deployed for optimal feedback regulation of the resultant dynamics.By viewing the system nonlinearities and unknown dynamics as disturbances,the proposed control framework allows to locally treat the considered nonlinear plant as a linear one.The obtained simulation results confirm that the utilization of UDE makes the tracking error negligibly small,even in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.In the conducted comparison study,the introduced control scheme outperforms both the standard MPC and PID(proportional-integral-derivative)control strategies in terms of transient performance and robustness.Furthermore,the results reveal that a lowpass-filter time constant has a significant effect on the robustness and the convergence range of the tracking error.

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Exploring the Implications of the Deformation Parameter and Minimal Length in the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

Generalized nth-Order Perturbation Method Based on Loop Subdivision Surface Boundary Element Method for Three-Dimensional Broadband Structural Acoustic Uncertainty Analysis

In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Miller method is employed to solve the problem of non-unique solutions that may be encountered in the external acoustic field,and the nth-order discretization formulation of the boundary integral equation is derived.In addition,the computation of loop subdivision surfaces and the subdivision rules are introduced.In order to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm,the computed results are contrasted and analyzed with the results under Monte Carlo simulations(MCs)through several numerical examples.

Using Cross Entropy as a Performance Metric for Quantifying Uncertainty in DNN Image Classifiers: An Application to Classification of Lung Cancer on CT Images

Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation metric for image classifier models and apply it to the CT image classification of lung cancer. A convolutional neural network is employed as the deep neural network (DNN) image classifier, with the residual network (ResNet) 50 chosen as the DNN archi-tecture. The image data used comprise a lung CT image set. Two classification models are built from datasets with varying amounts of data, and lung cancer is categorized into four classes using 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we employ t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding to visually explain the data distribution after classification. Experimental results demonstrate that cross en-tropy is a highly useful metric for evaluating the reliability of image classifier models. It is noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation of model perfor-mance, combining with other evaluation metrics is considered essential. .

Optimal Bidding Strategies of Microgrid with Demand Side Management for Economic Emission Dispatch Incorporating Uncertainty and Outage of Renewable Energy Sources

In the restructured electricity market,microgrid(MG),with the incorporation of smart grid technologies,distributed energy resources(DERs),a pumped-storage-hydraulic(PSH)unit,and a demand response program(DRP),is a smarter and more reliable electricity provider.DER consists of gas turbines and renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic systems and wind turbines.Better bidding strategies,prepared by MG operators,decrease the electricity cost and emissions from upstream grid and conventional and renewable energy sources(RES).But it is inefficient due to the very high sporadic characteristics of RES and the very high outage rate.To solve these issues,this study suggests non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)for an optimal bidding strategy considering pumped hydroelectric energy storage and DRP based on outage conditions and uncertainties of renewable energy sources.The uncertainty related to solar and wind units is modeled using lognormal and Weibull probability distributions.TOU-based DRP is used,especially considering the time of outages along with the time of peak loads and prices,to enhance the reliability of MG and reduce costs and emissions.

The prediction of projectile-target intersection for moving tank based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis

To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.

Bayesian partial pooling to reduce uncertainty in overcoring rock stress estimation

The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.

Uncertainty-Aware Physical Simulation of Neural Radiance Fields for Fluids

This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of in-vessel phenomena under severe accident mitigation strategy based on ISAA-SAUP program

The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.

Hydromechanical characterization of gas transport amidst uncertainty for underground nuclear explosion detection

Given the challenge of definitively discriminating between chemical and nuclear explosions using seismic methods alone,surface detection of signature noble gas radioisotopes is considered a positive identification of underground nuclear explosions(UNEs).However,the migration of signature radionuclide gases between the nuclear cavity and surface is not well understood because complex processes are involved,including the generation of complex fracture networks,reactivation of natural fractures and faults,and thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC)coupling of radionuclide gas transport in the subsurface.In this study,we provide an experimental investigation of hydro-mechanical(HM)coupling among gas flow,stress states,rock deformation,and rock damage using a unique multi-physics triaxial direct shear rock testing system.The testing system also features redundant gas pressure and flow rate measurements,well suited for parameter uncertainty quantification.Using porous tuff and tight granite samples that are relevant to historic UNE tests,we measured the Biot effective stress coefficient,rock matrix gas permeability,and fracture gas permeability at a range of pore pressure and stress conditions.The Biot effective stress coefficient varies from 0.69 to 1 for the tuff,whose porosity averages 35.3%±0.7%,while this coefficient varies from 0.51 to 0.78 for the tight granite(porosity<1%,perhaps an underestimate).Matrix gas permeability is strongly correlated to effective stress for the granite,but not for the porous tuff.Our experiments reveal the following key engineering implications on transport of radionuclide gases post a UNE event:(1)The porous tuff shows apparent fracture dilation or compression upon stress changes,which does not necessarily change the gas permeability;(2)The granite fracture permeability shows strong stress sensitivity and is positively related to shear displacement;and(3)Hydromechanical coupling among stress states,rock damage,and gas flow appears to be stronger in tight granite than in porous tuff.

Robust design of sliding mode control for airship trajectory tracking with uncertainty and disturbance estimation

The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.

Dynamic Economic Scheduling with Self-Adaptive Uncertainty in Distribution Network Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

Traditional optimal scheduling methods are limited to accurate physical models and parameter settings, which aredifficult to adapt to the uncertainty of source and load, and there are problems such as the inability to make dynamicdecisions continuously. This paper proposed a dynamic economic scheduling method for distribution networksbased on deep reinforcement learning. Firstly, the economic scheduling model of the new energy distributionnetwork is established considering the action characteristics of micro-gas turbines, and the dynamic schedulingmodel based on deep reinforcement learning is constructed for the new energy distribution network system with ahigh proportion of new energy, and the Markov decision process of the model is defined. Secondly, Second, for thechanging characteristics of source-load uncertainty, agents are trained interactively with the distributed networkin a data-driven manner. Then, through the proximal policy optimization algorithm, agents adaptively learn thescheduling strategy and realize the dynamic scheduling decision of the new energy distribution network system.Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are verified by an improved IEEE 33-node simulationsystem.

Critical Analysis of the Origins of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle

Analysis of the initial stages of the logical process followed by Louis de Broglie in establishing the electron phase wave equation in his 1924 thesis, which triggered the development of Wave Mechanics when Erwin Schrödinger formalized this concept with his vectorial wave equation. This development was soon followed by Quantum Mechanics, when Schrödinger proved that the Matrix Mechanics independently developed by Werner Heisenberg was equivalent to Wave Mechanics, with both theories leaving room for some degree of uncertainty as to the physical localization of the moving electron. This is what led Heisenberg to also formalize the Uncertainty Principle to take this situation into account. This principle was soon regarded as a fundamental axiomatic principle that seemed to make further exploration of the subatomic level of magnitude appear impossible to most researchers. We will analyze in this article the reason why the phase-wave velocity established by de Broglie generated this uncertainty in the localization of the moving electron in light of the current state of knowledge on the behavior of the electron in motion, in view of establishing the relevance of maintaining the Uncertainty Principle in the study of the subatomic level of magnitude.

Measurement Uncertainty Analysis of the Rotary-scan Method for the Measurable Dimension of Cylindrical Workpieces

The measurement uncertainty analysis is carried out to investigate the measurable dimensions of cylindrical workpieces by the rotary-scan method in this paper.Due to the difficult alignment of the workpiece with a diameter of less than 3 mm by the rotary scan method,the measurement uncertainty of the cylindrical workpiece with a diameter of 3 mm and length of 50 mm which is measured by a roundness measuring machine,is evaluated according to GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement)as an example.Since the uncertainty caused by the eccentricity of the measured workpiece is different with the dimension changing,the measurement uncertainty of cylindrical workpieces with other dimensions can be evaluated the same as the diameter of 3 mm but with different eccentricity.Measurement uncertainty caused by different eccentricities concerning the dimension of the measured cylindrical workpiece is set to simulate the evaluations.Compared to the target value of the measurement uncertainty of 0.1μm,the measurable dimensions of the cylindrical workpiece can be obtained.Experiments and analysis are presented to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the rotary-scan method for the roundness measurement of cylindrical workpieces.