Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

Review on uncertainty analysis and information fusion diagnosis of aircraft control system

In the aircraft control system,sensor networks are used to sample the attitude and environmental data.As a result of the external and internal factors(e.g.,environmental and task complexity,inaccurate sensing and complex structure),the aircraft control system contains several uncertainties,such as imprecision,incompleteness,redundancy and randomness.The information fusion technology is usually used to solve the uncertainty issue,thus improving the sampled data reliability,which can further effectively increase the performance of the fault diagnosis decision-making in the aircraft control system.In this work,we first analyze the uncertainties in the aircraft control system,and also compare different uncertainty quantitative methods.Since the information fusion can eliminate the effects of the uncertainties,it is widely used in the fault diagnosis.Thus,this paper summarizes the recent work in this aera.Furthermore,we analyze the application of information fusion methods in the fault diagnosis of the aircraft control system.Finally,this work identifies existing problems in the use of information fusion for diagnosis and outlines future trends.

Effect of quality uncertainty of parts on performance of reprocessing system in remanufacturing environment

Aimed at the problem of stochastic routings for reprocessing operations and highly variable processing times,an open queuing network is utilized to model a typical reprocessing system.In the model,each server is subject to breakdown and has a finite buffer capacity,while repair times,breakdown times and service time follow an exponential distribution.Based on the decomposition principle and the expansion methodology,an approximation analytical algorithm is proposed to calculate the mean reprocessing time,the throughput of each server and other parameters of the processing system.Then an approach to determining the quality of disassembled parts is suggested,on the basis of which the effect of parts quality on the performance of the reprocessing system is investigated.Numerical examples show that there is a negative correlation between quality of parts and their mean reprocessing time.Furthermore,marginal reprocessing time of the parts decrease with the drop in their quality.

Uncertainty quantification of inverse analysis for geomaterials using probabilistic programming

Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.

Hydromechanical characterization of gas transport amidst uncertainty for underground nuclear explosion detection

Given the challenge of definitively discriminating between chemical and nuclear explosions using seismic methods alone,surface detection of signature noble gas radioisotopes is considered a positive identification of underground nuclear explosions(UNEs).However,the migration of signature radionuclide gases between the nuclear cavity and surface is not well understood because complex processes are involved,including the generation of complex fracture networks,reactivation of natural fractures and faults,and thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical(THMC)coupling of radionuclide gas transport in the subsurface.In this study,we provide an experimental investigation of hydro-mechanical(HM)coupling among gas flow,stress states,rock deformation,and rock damage using a unique multi-physics triaxial direct shear rock testing system.The testing system also features redundant gas pressure and flow rate measurements,well suited for parameter uncertainty quantification.Using porous tuff and tight granite samples that are relevant to historic UNE tests,we measured the Biot effective stress coefficient,rock matrix gas permeability,and fracture gas permeability at a range of pore pressure and stress conditions.The Biot effective stress coefficient varies from 0.69 to 1 for the tuff,whose porosity averages 35.3%±0.7%,while this coefficient varies from 0.51 to 0.78 for the tight granite(porosity<1%,perhaps an underestimate).Matrix gas permeability is strongly correlated to effective stress for the granite,but not for the porous tuff.Our experiments reveal the following key engineering implications on transport of radionuclide gases post a UNE event:(1)The porous tuff shows apparent fracture dilation or compression upon stress changes,which does not necessarily change the gas permeability;(2)The granite fracture permeability shows strong stress sensitivity and is positively related to shear displacement;and(3)Hydromechanical coupling among stress states,rock damage,and gas flow appears to be stronger in tight granite than in porous tuff.

Adaptive Robust Servo Control for Vertical Electric Stabilization System of Tank and Experimental Validation

A tracking stability control problem for the vertical electric stabilization system of moving tank based on adaptive robust servo control is addressed.This paper mainly focuses on two types of possibly fast timevarying but bounded uncertainty within the vertical electric stabilization system:model parameter uncertainty and uncertain nonlinearity.First,the vertical electric stabilization system is constructed as an uncertain nonlinear dynamic system that can reflect the practical mechanics transfer process of the system.Second,the dynamical equation in the form of state space is established by designing the angular tracking error.Third,the comprehensive parameter of system uncertainty is designed to estimate the most conservative effects of uncertainty.Finally,an adaptive robust servo control which can effectively handle the combined effects of complex nonlinearity and uncertainty is proposed.The feasibility of the proposed control strategy under the practical physical condition is validated through the tests on the experimental platform.This paper pioneers the introduction of the internal nonlinearity and uncertainty of the vertical electric stabilization system into the settlement of the tracking stability control problem,and validates the advanced servo control strategy through experiment for the first time.

Robust Stability and Stabilization of Discrete Singular Systems with Interval Time-varying Delay and Linear Fractional Uncertainty

The robust stability and robust stabilization problems for discrete singular systems with interval time-varying delay and linear fractional uncertainty are discussed. A new delay-dependent criterion is established for the nominal discrete singular delay systems to be regular, causal and stable by employing the linear matrix inequality （LMI） approach. It is shown that the newly proposed criterion can provide less conservative results than some existing ones. Then, with this criterion, the problems of robust stability and robust stabilization for uncertain discrete singular delay systems are solved, and the delay-dependent LMI conditions are obtained. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Part Ⅱ: Model Uncertainty

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone(TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II.Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60?S and 60?N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.

Framework system and research flow of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models

Uncertainty in 3D geological structure models has become a bottleneck that restricts the development and application of 3D geological modeling.In order to solve this problem during periods of accuracy assessment,error detection and dynamic correction in 3D geological structure models,we have reviewed the current situation and development trends in 3D geological modeling.The main context of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models is discussed.Major research issues and a general framework system of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models are proposed.We have described in detail the integration of development practices of 3D geological modeling systems,as well as the implementation process for uncertainty evaluation in 3D geological structure models.This study has laid the basis to build theoretical and methodological systems for accuracy assessment and error correction in 3D geological models and can assist in improving 3D modeling techniques under complex geological conditions.

Dynamic Analysis of Geared Rotor System with Hybrid Uncertainties

Current research on the dynamics and vibrations of geared rotor systems primarily focuses on deterministic models.However,uncertainties inevitably exist in the gear system,which cause uncertainties in system parameters and subsequently influence the accurate evaluation of system dynamic behavior.In this study,a dynamic model of a geared rotor system with mixed parameters and model uncertainties is proposed.Initially,the dynamic model of the geared rotor-bearing system with deterministic parameters is established using a finite element method.Subsequently,a nonparametric method is introduced to model the hybrid uncertainties in the dynamic model.Deviation coefficients and dispersion parameters are used to reflect the levels of parameter and model uncertainty.For example,the study evaluates the effects of uncertain bearing and mesh stiffness on the vibration responses of a geared rotor system.The results demonstrate that the influence of uncertainty varies among different model types.Model uncertainties have a more significant than parametric uncertainties,whereas hybrid uncertainties increase the nonlinearities and complexities of the system’s dynamic responses.These findings provide valuable insights into understanding the dynamic behavior of geared system with hybrid uncertainties.

Uncertainty and disturbance estimator-based model predictive control for wet flue gas desulphurization system

Wet flue gas desulphurization technology is widely used in the industrial process for its capability of efficient pollution removal.The desulphurization control system,however,is subjected to complex reaction mechanisms and severe disturbances,which make for it difficult to achieve certain practically relevant control goals including emission and economic performances as well as system robustness.To address these challenges,a new robust control scheme based on uncertainty and disturbance estimator(UDE)and model predictive control(MPC)is proposed in this paper.The UDE is used to estimate and dynamically compensate acting disturbances,whereas MPC is deployed for optimal feedback regulation of the resultant dynamics.By viewing the system nonlinearities and unknown dynamics as disturbances,the proposed control framework allows to locally treat the considered nonlinear plant as a linear one.The obtained simulation results confirm that the utilization of UDE makes the tracking error negligibly small,even in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.In the conducted comparison study,the introduced control scheme outperforms both the standard MPC and PID(proportional-integral-derivative)control strategies in terms of transient performance and robustness.Furthermore,the results reveal that a lowpass-filter time constant has a significant effect on the robustness and the convergence range of the tracking error.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of in-vessel phenomena under severe accident mitigation strategy based on ISAA-SAUP program

The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.

Uncertainty-Aware Physical Simulation of Neural Radiance Fields for Fluids

This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Regional Marine Ecosystem Services Value

Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.

The prediction of projectile-target intersection for moving tank based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis

To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Optimal Bidding Strategies of Microgrid with Demand Side Management for Economic Emission Dispatch Incorporating Uncertainty and Outage of Renewable Energy Sources

In the restructured electricity market,microgrid(MG),with the incorporation of smart grid technologies,distributed energy resources(DERs),a pumped-storage-hydraulic(PSH)unit,and a demand response program(DRP),is a smarter and more reliable electricity provider.DER consists of gas turbines and renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic systems and wind turbines.Better bidding strategies,prepared by MG operators,decrease the electricity cost and emissions from upstream grid and conventional and renewable energy sources(RES).But it is inefficient due to the very high sporadic characteristics of RES and the very high outage rate.To solve these issues,this study suggests non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)for an optimal bidding strategy considering pumped hydroelectric energy storage and DRP based on outage conditions and uncertainties of renewable energy sources.The uncertainty related to solar and wind units is modeled using lognormal and Weibull probability distributions.TOU-based DRP is used,especially considering the time of outages along with the time of peak loads and prices,to enhance the reliability of MG and reduce costs and emissions.

Analysis of sleep quality,disease uncertainty,and psychological tolerance in patients undergoing chemotherapy for digestive tract malignancies

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among digestive tract malignancies,following gastric cancer.Sleep is of great significance for maintaining human health.The incidence of sleep disorders in patients with cancer is approximately twice that observed in the general population.Lack of sleep can prolong hospital stays,increase the likelihood of infection,and increase mortality rates.Therefore,studying the factors related to sleep quality is significant for improving the quality of life of patients with malignant tumors of the digestive tract.AIM To investigate the relationships among sleep quality,disease uncertainty,and psychological resilience in patients undergoing chemotherapy for digestive tract malignancies.METHODS A total of 131 patients with malignant digestive tract tumors who were treated at Hefei BOE Hospital between April 2021 and September 2022 were selected as research participants.Based on their Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI)scores,participants were divided into either the sleep disorder group(PSQI score>7)or the normal sleep group(PSQI score≤7).The clinical data—together with the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale for Adults(MUIS-A)and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale(CD-RISC)scores—were compared.RESULTS In this study,78(59.54%)patients with digestive tract malignancies developed sleep disorders after chemotherapy.Sleep disorder incidence was higher in patients with colorectal cancer than in those with gastric and esophageal cancers(P<0.05).The total MUIS-A score and those for each item in the sleep disorder group were higher than those in the normal sleep group.The total CD-RISC score and those for each item in the sleep disorder group were lower than those in the normal sleep group(P<0.05).The PSQI scores of patients with malignant digestive tract tumors were positively correlated with the scores for lack of disease information,disease uncertainty,and unpredictability in the MUIS-A and negatively correlated with the scores for tenacity,self-improvement,and optimism in the CD-RISC(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Patients undergoing chemotherapy for digestive tract malignancies are prone to sleep problems related to disease uncertainty and psychological resilience.Therefore,interventions can be implemented to improve their sleep quality.

Distributed Robust Scheduling Optimization ofWind-Thermal-Storage System Based on Hybrid Carbon Trading andWasserstein Fuzzy Set

A robust scheduling optimization method for wind–fire storage system distribution based on the mixed carbon trading mechanism is proposed to improve the rationality of carbon emission quota allocation while reducing the instability of large-scale wind power access systems.A hybrid carbon trading mechanism that combines shortterm and long-term carbon trading is constructed,and a fuzzy set based onWasserstein measurement is proposed to address the uncertainty of wind power access.Moreover,a robust scheduling optimization method for wind–fire storage systems is formed.Results of the multi scenario comparative analysis of practical cases show that the proposed method can deal with the uncertainty of large-scale wind power access and can effectively reduce operating costs and carbon emissions.

Robust design of sliding mode control for airship trajectory tracking with uncertainty and disturbance estimation

The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.