Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Roadway Design and Evacuation Routes in Delaware

As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.

Prediction of the joint impacts of sea level rise and land development on distribution patterns of mangrove communities

Mangrove distribution along shorelines shows distinct zonation patterns;thus,different communities may face various influences from sea level rise(SLR)and land use.However,long-term change predictions are usually based only on the total extent of mangroves.Few studies have revealed how SLR and land development such as agriculture,aquaculture,and urbanization jointly affect different intertidal mangrove communities.This study proposed a novel framework combining SLAMM(Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model)and the CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent)model to assess the potential impacts on upper and lower intertidal mangrove communities.Maoweihai in Guangxi,China,was selected as the study area and the potential impacts from the squeeze effect and mangrove expansion potential were evaluated.We established three scenarios combining SLR and land use patterns to predict mangrove coverage projections by 2070.The results showed that,under a single SLR driver,the upper intertidal mangroves would be more adaptive to rapid SLR than the lower intertidal mangroves.However,under the combined influence of the two drivers,the upper intertidal mangroves would experience larger squeeze effects than the lower intertidal mangroves,with up to 80.5%of suitable habitat lost.Moreover,the expansion potential of upper intertidal mangroves would be considerably more limited than that of lower intertidal mangroves.The length of the expandable habitat patch boundary of upper intertidal mangroves only reached 1.4–1.8 km,while that of the lower intertidal mangroves reached up to99.2–111.2 km.Further,we found that aquaculture ponds and cropland are the top two land development types that could occupy suitable habitat and restrict the mangrove expansion potential.Our results highlight that timely improvement of land use policies to create available landward accommodation space for mangrove migration is essential to maintain the coverage and diversity of mangrove communities under SLR.The proposed method can be a helpful tool for adaptive mangrove conservation and management under climate change.

Potential effects of sea level rise on the soil-atmosphere green-house gas emissions in Kandelia obovata mangrove forests

Mangrove forests are under the stress of sea level rise(SLR)which would affect mangrove soil biogeochemistry.Mangrove soils are important sources of soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,including carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),methane(CH_(4))and nitrous oxide(N_(2)O).Understanding how SLR influences GHG emissions is critical for evaluating mangrove blue carbon capability.In this study,potential effects of SLR on the GHG emissions were quantified through static closed chamber technique among three sites under different intertidal elevations,representing tidal flooding situation of SLR values of 0 cm,40 cm and 80 cm,respectively.Compared with Site SLR 0 cm,annual CO_(2) and N_(2)O fluxes decreased by approximately 75.0%and 27.3%due to higher soil water content,lower salinity and soil nutrient environments at Site SLR 80 cm.However,CH_(4) fluxes increased by approximately 13.7%at Site SLR 40 cm and 8.8%at Site SLR 80 cm because of lower salinity,higher soil water content and soil pH.CO_(2)-equivalent fluxes were 396.61 g/(m^(2)·a),1423.29 g/(m^(2)·a)and 1420.21 g/(m^(2)·a)at Sites SLR 80 cm,SLR 40 cm and SLR 0 cm,respectively.From Site SLR 0 cm to Site SLR 80 cm,contribution rate of N_(2)O and CH_(4) increased by approximately 7.42%and 3.02%,while contribution rate of CO_(2) decreased by approximately 10.44%.The results indicated that warming potential of trace CH_(4) and N_(2)O was non-negligible with SLR.Potential effects of SLR on the mangrove blue carbon capability should warrant attention due to changes of all three greenhouse gas fluxes with SLR.

Evaluating the Influence of Sea Level Rise on Beel Kapalia’s Livelihood and Local Adaptation Strategies: Perspectives from the Local Community

Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change-induced sea level rise due to its location and socioeconomic position. The study examines the Beel Kapalia region in polder no. 24 of the Monirampur upazila of Jessore district, Khulna division. To assess local attitudes on sea level rise-related permanent flooding, Kapalia, Monoharpur, Nehalpur, Balidaha, and Panchakori were polled. This flooding has disrupted residents’ lifestyles, making them vulnerable to increasing sea levels. Viability and adaptability were assessed using livelihood capitals. Participants’ thoughts and knowledge about their resilience in several livelihood factors were gathered using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) instruments and a questionnaire survey in the area. Major discoveries include the impact of permanent floods on Beel Kapalia’s livelihoods, vulnerability and resilience assessments in numerous villages, and community viewpoints on regional adaptation methods to mitigate these consequences. The study found that a sustained 30.5 cm inundation would reduce local human, natural, physical, financial, and social capital resilience to 69.6%, 30.7%, 69.1%, 68.9%, and 69.1%. A constant 61 cm inundation would lower resistance to 40.9%, 8.7%, 42.4%, 45.6%, and 43.8%. Residents believe they can weather a 30.5 cm inundation with local adaptation measures, but if the water level rises to 61 cm, they may be displaced.

Can a global mean sea-level rise reduce the Last Interglacial model-data mismatch in East Asia?

末次间冰期有着丰富的重建和模拟资料,为研究未来温暖气候提供了一个理想的参考.然而,关于末次间冰期的东亚气候,模拟与重建的结果间长期存在着不匹配的情况,模拟结果普遍较重建结果更为冷干。本研究利用挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F),探讨了在末次间冰期模拟试验中纳入全球平均海平面上升能否减少模式-数据的不匹配.该试验结果表明,海平面上升情况下东亚地区会产生一定的增温增湿效应,但不足以消除模式-数据不匹配.基于这些结果,作者探讨了其它可能造成不匹配的因素以供进一步研究.

Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Mean Sea Level Rise on Typhoon Storm Surge in the East China Sea

In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.

Climate warming and sea level rise

Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China's National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km^2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km^2, 4000 km^2, 5300 km^2 and 7200 km^2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL EROSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NORTH JIANGSU COASTAL PLAINO

At present, approximately 36% of coasts are experiencing net erosion in the Changjiang River delta and the north Jiangru coastal plain. Future sea level rise will accelerate the process of coastal erosion. According to the ratio of the calculated value of coast retreat by Bruun rule to the estimated value by using measured data, the proportion affected by sea level rise in total coastal erosion has been estimated in this paper. When sea level rises by 20cm, the proportion determined by sea level rise will increase from 1.0% at Present to 2.2% in the future in the coasts of abandoned Huanghe River delta and from 8.5%/-9.6% to 13.5%- 15.2% in the north and south banks of the Changjiang River delta. This result is lower than that from the similar research in the world, and this phenomenon is related with the special development process of the coasts in this area. The mechanism of accelerating coastal erosion by sea .level rise is that sea level is will increase the intensity of tidal current, wave and storm surge and decrease the ability to reduce the force of waves on the tidal flat and coastal wetland due to the loss of their areas. Therefore, the length of erosion coasts will increase, the sedimentation rate of accretion coasts will decrease or even turn accretion into erosion,the width of tidal flat will reduce and coastal slope will increase. So the project of coastal protection of this area must be reinforced.

Prediction of China's Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.

Effects of Vegetation Type on Surface Elevation Change in Liaohe River Delta Wetlands Facing Accelerated Sea Level Rise

Rising sea levels threaten the sustainability of coastal wetlands around the globe. The ability of coastal marshes to maintain their position in the intertidal zone depends on the accumulation of both organic and inorganic materials, and vegetation is important in these processes. To study the effects of vegetation type on surface elevation change, we measured surface accretion and elevation change from 2011 to 2016 using rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizon method （RSET-MH） in two Phragmites and two Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta. The Phragmites marshes exhibited higher rates of surface accretion and elevation change than the Suaeda marshes. The two Phragmites marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 8.78 mm/yr and 9.26 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 17.56 mm/yr and 17.88 mm/yr, respectively. At the same time, the two Suaeda marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 5.77 mmJyr and 5.91 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 13.42 mm/yr and 14.38 mm/yr, respectively. The elevation change rates in both the Phragmites marshes and the Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta could keep pace and even continue to gain elevation relative to averaged sea level rise in the Bohai Sea reported by the 2016 State Oceanic Administration, Peo- ple＇s Republic of China projection （2.4-5.5 mm/yr） in current situations. Our data suggest that vegetation is important in the accretionary processes and vegetation type could regulate the wetland surface elevation. However, the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Liaohe River Delta need further assessment considering the accelerated sea level rise, the high rate of subsidence, and the declining sediment delivery, especially for the Suaeda marshes.

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES IN CHINAS COASTAL AREAS

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2-3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China's coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land,exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards.as well as endangering land. water. tourism and living resources and their utilization.

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areasalong China's coast

It can be seen from the calculation that the vulnerable area along China's coast in which the elevation is less than 5 m, is 143 900 km2, accounting for about 11. 3% of the total area of the 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. These areas are threatened to varying extent by sea level rise. According to prediction, the relative sea level rise (including global sea level rise caused by climate change and local relative as level rise caused by vertical crust movement and ground subsidence) along China's coast will be 4～16 cm by the year 2030 with the optimum estimated value of 6～14cm. It will be 9～26 cm by the year 2050 with the optimum estimated value of 12-23 cm. And it will be 31-74 cm by the year 2100 with the optimum estimated value of 47～65 cm. The calcuation result shows that the percentage of the cost for up-grading (heightening and consolidating) sea dykes/walls in adaptation strategy in the losses of submerged areas varies from area to area: 6. 9% in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Deta, 1. 3% ～24. 6% in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Delta, and 0. 9%～2. 0% in the Huanghe River Delta.

Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1) Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980e2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2) Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950e2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11
per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09
per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3) It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation

Evaluation of sea level rise and associated responses in Hangzhou Bay from 1978 to 2017

The mean sea level, extreme sea level, and astronomical tide in Hangzhou Bay were analyzed using the tide gage data from 1978 to 2017 in Tanxu station, and the effects of rising sea levels on floods were estimated. The mean sea level in Hangzhou Bay showed a significant rising trend of 4.6mm per year in 1978-2017. This rate was much higher than the mean sea level of the China seas, and the extreme sea level in Hangzhou Bay increased at the rate of 0.011 m per year. During 1978-2017, the mean tide range increased at the rate of 1.30 cm per year. The amplitude of M2 significantly increased at the rate of 0.57cm per year, whereas the phase lag decreased at the rate of --0.21° per year. The amplitude and phase lag of the K1 tidal component slightly decreased at the rate of --0.03 cm per year and -0.07° per year, respectively. The changes in extreme sea level in Hangzhou Bay were mainly caused by variations in mean sea level. The coastal areas of Hangzhou Bay at risk from flooding due to the 100-year sea level return will increase by about 400 km^2 by 2050.

Coastal Planning Strategies for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Case Study of Mokpo, Korea

Climate change and sea level rise necessitate adaptation strategies for coastal areas. This paper showcases five strategies for sea level rise adaptation: hard protection, soft protection, accommodation, retreat, and attack. This study proposes adaptation measures and a phased development strategy for coastal areas of Mokpo, an old port city on the southwestern tip of the Korean Peninsula that has been expanded by land reclamation. Mokpo presently experiences frequent flooding during high-water and storm events;due to their low elevation and land subsidence, most of the reclaimed areas are susceptible to future inundation via sea level rise. The fundamental adaptation strategies for the impact areas are: hard protection of important infrastructures via multi-tiered terraces;the retreat of coastal developments accompanied by green buffer zones such as wetlands and parks to accommodate temporary inundation;and up-leveling the ground for new development and phased relocation of existing development. Through the case study of Mokpo, the paper emphasizes the importance of resilient planning strategies for urban development, and highlights both the challenges and opportunities for sea level rise adaptation.

Responses of estuarine salinity and transport processes to sea level rise in the Zhujiang(Pearl River) Estuary

Understanding the changes of hydrodynamics in estuaries with respect to magnitude of sea level rise is important to understand the changes of transport process. Based on prediction of sea level rise over the 21st century, the Zhujiang（Pearl River） Estuary was chosen as a prototype to study the responses of the estuary to potential sea level rise. The numerical model results show that the average salt content, saltwater intrusion distance, and stratification will increase as the sea level rises. The changes of these parameters have obvious seasonal variations. The salt content in the Lingdingyang shows more increase in April and October（the transition periods）. The saltwater intrusion distance has larger increase during the low-flow periods than during the highflow periods in the Lingdingyang. The result is just the opposite in Modaomen. The stratification and its increase are larger during the low-flow periods than during the high-flow periods in Lingdingyang. The response results of transport processes to sea level rise demonstrate that：（1） The time of vertical transport has pronounced increase.The increased tidal range and currents would reinforce the vertical mixing, but the increased stratification would weaken the vertical exchange. The impact of stratification changes overwhelms the impact of tidal changes. It would be more difficult for the surface water to reach the bottom.（2） The lengthways estuarine circulation would be strengthened. Both the offshore surface residual current and inshore bottom residual current will be enhanced.The whole meridional resident flow along the transect of the Lingdingyang would be weakened. These phenomena are caused by the decrease of water surface slope（WWS） and the change of static pressure with the increase of water depth under sea level rise.