Novel Early-Warning Model for Customer Churn of Credit Card Based on GSAIBAS-Cat Boost

As the banking industry gradually steps into the digital era of Bank 4.0,business competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and banks are also facing the problem of massive customer churn.To better maintain their customer resources,it is crucial for banks to accurately predict customers with a tendency to churn.Aiming at the typical binary classification problem like customer churn,this paper establishes an early-warning model for credit card customer churn.That is a dual search algorithm named GSAIBAS by incorporating Golden Sine Algorithm(GSA)and an Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)is proposed to optimize the parameters of the CatBoost algorithm,which forms the GSAIBAS-CatBoost model.Especially,considering that the BAS algorithm has simple parameters and is easy to fall into local optimum,the Sigmoid nonlinear convergence factor and the lane flight equation are introduced to adjust the fixed step size of beetle.Then this improved BAS algorithm with variable step size is fused with the GSA to form a GSAIBAS algorithm which can achieve dual optimization.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made according to the data set of credit card customers from Analyttica official platform.The empirical results show that the values of Area Under Curve(AUC)and recall of the proposedmodel in this paper reach 96.15%and 95.56%,respectively,which are significantly better than the other 9 common machine learning models.Compared with several existing optimization algorithms,GSAIBAS algorithm has higher precision in the parameter optimization for CatBoost.Combined with two other customer churn data sets on Kaggle data platform,it is further verified that the model proposed in this paper is also valid and feasible.

LexDeep:Hybrid Lexicon and Deep Learning Sentiment Analysis Using Twitter for Unemployment-Related Discussions During COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally,resulting in financialinstability in many countries and reductions in the per capita grossdomestic product.Sentiment analysis is a cost-effective method for acquiringsentiments based on household income loss,as expressed on social media.However,limited research has been conducted in this domain using theLexDeep approach.This study aimed to explore social trend analytics usingLexDeep,which is a hybrid sentiment analysis technique,on Twitter to capturethe risk of household income loss during the COVID-19 pandemic.First,tweet data were collected using Twint with relevant keywords before(9 March2019 to 17 March 2020)and during(18 March 2020 to 21 August 2021)thepandemic.Subsequently,the tweets were annotated using VADER(lexiconbased)and fed into deep learning classifiers,and experiments were conductedusing several embeddings,namely simple embedding,Global Vectors,andWord2Vec,to classify the sentiments expressed in the tweets.The performanceof each LexDeep model was evaluated and compared with that of a supportvector machine(SVM).Finally,the unemployment rates before and duringCOVID-19 were analysed to gain insights into the differences in unemploymentpercentages through social media input and analysis.The resultsdemonstrated that all LexDeep models with simple embedding outperformedthe SVM.This confirmed the superiority of the proposed LexDeep modelover a classical machine learning classifier in performing sentiment analysistasks for domain-specific sentiments.In terms of the risk of income loss,the unemployment issue is highly politicised on both the regional and globalscales;thus,if a country cannot combat this issue,the global economy will alsobe affected.Future research should develop a utility maximisation algorithmfor household welfare evaluation,given the percentage risk of income lossowing to COVID-19.

Construction of Early-warning Model for Plant Diseases and Pests Based on Improved Neural Network

By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.

China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

Deformation early-warning index for heightened gravity dam during impoundment period

The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.

Data Processing Model of Coalmine Gas Early-Warning System

The data processing mode is vital to the performance of an entire coalmine gas early-warning system, especially in real-time performance. Our objective was to present the structural features of coalmine gas data, so that the data could be processed at different priority levels in C language. Two different data processing models, one with priority and the other without priority, were built based on queuing theory. Their theoretical formulas were determined via a M/M/I model in order to calculate average occupation time of each measuring point in an early-warning program. We validated the model with the gas early-warning system of the Huaibei Coalmine Group Corp. The results indicate that the average occupation time for gas data processing by using the queuing system model with priority is nearly 1/30 of that of the model without priority.

Characteristics Analysis and the Early-warning Service System of Heavy Fog in Chizhou City

By analyzing the heavy fog data in Chizhou City in recent 50 years(1959-2007),the general rules of meteorological elements variations were found when the heavy fog happened.The meteorological elements included the temperature,humidity,wind direction,wind speed,air pressure and so on.The conceptual models of high-altitude and ground situation were established when the heavy fog happened in Chizhou City.Based on considering sufficiently the special geographical environment in Chizhou City,we found the key factors which affected the local heavy fog via the relative analyses.By using the statistical forecast methods which included the second-level judgment method and regression method of event probability and so on,the forecast mode equation of heavy fog was established.Moreover,the objective forecast system of heavy fog in Chizhou City was also manufactured.It provided the basis and platform which could be referred for the heavy fog forecast,service and the release of early-warning signal.

Urbanization,unemployment rate and China' rising divorce rate

This paper analyzes the impacts of urbanization and unemployment rate on China's divorce rate with the panel data of 31Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2011.The study manifests as follows.First,the significant influence of urbanization cannot be observed on the rising breakdown since the latter is not the inevitable result of the former.In the second place,unemployment rate has a significant negative influence on divorce rate,namely,with the former increasing,the latter will decrease,which echoes the perspective of divorce cost.And finally,this paper also finds positive effects of per capita fixed investment,old-age dependency rate,average household size,the proportion of floating population and population density,and negative correlation of average education attainment on divorce rate.

A new early-warning prediction system for monitoring shear force of fault plane in the active fault

The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth＇s surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave.However,such approach is not successful in forecasting the movement behaviors of faults.In the present study,a new mechanical model of fault activity,considering the shear strength on the fault plane and the influence of the resistance force,is established based on the occurrence condition of earthquake.A remote real-time monitoring system is correspondingly developed to obtain the changes in mechanical components within fault.Taking into consideration the local geological conditions and the history of fault activity in Zhangjiakou of China,an active fault exposed in the region of Zhangjiakou is selected to be directly monitored by the real-time monitoring technique.A thorough investigation on local fault structures results in the selection of two suitable sites for monitoring potential active tectonic movements of Zhangjiakou fault.Two monitoring curves of shear strength,recorded during a monitoring period of 6 months,turn out to be steady,which indicates that the potential seismic activities hardly occur in the adjacent region in the near future.This monitoring technique can be used for early-warning prediction of the movement of active fault,and can help to further gain an insight into the interaction between fault activity and relevant mechanisms.

Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

The Innovation Research of Financial Early-Warning Index Measurement

The period economic fluctuation is vital for an enterprise to exist and further develop, it directly affect the enterprise financial health. So, it is significant to build up financial early-warning index and measure the warning condition that the enterprise faces and take the effective measures to eliminate. We criticize Altman’sZ calculating model and build up some new indexes for enterprise financial early-warning condition measuring and making sound decision.

Threshold Parameter for the Control of Unemployment in the Society: Mathematical Model and Analysis

Unemployment is one of the major vices in our contemporal society, which weigh greatly on the economy of such nation. It is also, a fact that knowing ones enemy before battle gives 50 per cent chance of victory;thus, this research aimed at providing understanding about dynamics of unemployment with consideration for retirement and possible control criterion. And the objectives are;formulation of mathematical model using the concept of deterministic model and mathematical epidemiology;then, model analysis. The model analysis includes, a numerical semi-analytical scheme for investigating validity of analytical solutions. The result of the analysis were that: 1) the model was mathematically well-pose and biologically meaningful 2) two equilibria points exist, and 3) a threshold for recruitment from the pool of unemployment, assuring victory in the fight against unemployment was also, obtained. The threshold is required to be well managed in order to win the battle against the socio-vice (unemployment) in the contemporary society. In addition, variational iterative method (VIM) is the numerical semi-analytic scheme employed to solve the model;thus, the approximate solution gave a practical meaningful interpretation supporting the analytical results and proof of verdict of assumptions of the model. The article concluded with three points;everyone has roles to play to curtail the socio-menace, beseech government and policy makers to look kindly, and create policy(ies) to sustain population growth, and the retiree should also, plan live after service, because over dependence on pension scheme could be died before death because of corruption in the scheme.

Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CCR wall〈 sequences for the pandemic years （or ＋ -1 to 2 years） are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.

The Management Platform for Online Rate of Meteorological Early-warning Loudspeakers

The meteorological early-warning loudspeaker is a specific initiative for the meteorological departments to address the issues concerning issues concerning agriculture,countryside and farmers.Its significance is that it can promptly deliver the early-warning information concerning some meteorological disasters(such as torrential rains,typhoons,cold wave,hail)to the areas affected,so as to provide reference and protection for agricultural production and effectively reduce the loss of agricultural producers.Up to now,the meteorological early-warning loudspeakers in Benxi have covered the villages.However,due to irregular occurrence of meteorological disasters,the listeners will turn off the information receivers of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers when they fail to receive meteorological information for a long time,so that the users can not promptly know the early-warning information regarding some sudden meteorological disasters.In view of this,the meteorological departments have introduced a series of management measures,such as the daily use of loudspeakers to publish weather forecast information,aimed at improving the online rate and usage rate of meteorological loudspeakers.And the management platform for online rate of meteorological early-warning loudspeakers is an important part of the management system.

COVID-19 and Unemployment: A Novel Bi-Level Optimal Control Model

Since COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic in March 2020,the world’s major preoccupation has been to curb it while preserving the economy and reducing unemployment.This paper uses a novel Bi-Level Dynamic Optimal Control model(BLDOC)to coordinate control between COVID-19 and unemployment.The COVID-19 model is the upper level while the unemployment model is the lower level of the bi-level dynamic optimal control model.The BLDOC model’s main objectives are to minimize the number of individuals infected with COVID-19 and to minimize the unemployed individuals,and at the same time minimizing the cost of the containment strategies.We use the modified approximation Karush–Kuhn–Tucker(KKT)conditions with the Hamiltonian function to handle the bi-level dynamic optimal control model.We consider three control variables:The first control variable relates to government measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic,i.e.,quarantine,social distancing,and personal protection;and the other two control variables relate to government interventions to reduce the unemployment rate,i.e.,employment,making individuals qualified,creating new jobs reviving the economy,reducing taxes.We investigate four different cases to verify the effect of control variables.Our results indicate that rather than focusing exclusively on only one problem,we need a balanced trade-off between controlling each.

Research on Technology Early-Warning System Based on Dynamic Information Monitoring

Relying on the advanced information technologies, such as information monitoring, data mining, natural language processing etc., the dynamic technology early-warning system is constructed. The system consists of technology information automatic retrieval, technology information monitoring, technology threat evaluation, and crisis response and management subsystem, which implements uninterrupted dynamic monitoring, trace and crisis early-warning to the specific technology. Empirical study testifies that the system improves the accuracy, timeliness and reliability of technology early-warning.

Factors and Determinants of Interregional Unemployment Rate Differences in Rural Russia

This study involves an econometric assessment of the impact that macroeconomic, institutional, structural, demographic and social variables produce on the rate of and interregional differences in rural unemployment. We classify the regions of Russia by the rate of overall and rural unemployment and characterize the groups of regions we have selected according to key parameters of the labor market and features of regional development. Employing a regression analysis, this paper focuses on the factors of regional unemployment in the subjects of Russian Federation. When making our regression models, stepwise regression methods were used. Evaluating the regression models that include demographic, economic and social factors, we identify the determinants of rural unemployment. The regression analysis was carried out for both the Russian Federation as a whole and each of the typological groups individually. We find that such factors like a big share of young people in the structure of the rural population and a low level of education of rural residents do contribute to the growth of rural unemployment. At the same time, higher employment, diversification of the rural economy through promoting non-agricultural employment, and higher levels of vocational education among rural residents cause the rate of rural unemployment to fall.

Financial crisis early-warning model of listed companies based on predicted value

To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.

Currency Areas: Public Debt, Inflation and Unemployment

Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of America (USA), along with the member countries of the Euro Zone (European Monetary Union, or EMU). The main purpose is to know the divergence between public debt, average inflation ﹣0% in the graphs—in the main cities or regions of the first two, and compare them with the countries of the EMU. The period of 2001-2012 is chosen to be the years in which the Euro has been circulating among member countries of the Monetary Union (EMU). We find significant differences that allow us to determine the faults that the criteria of divergence on these variables had on the founding treaty of the European Monetary Union.