Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns.Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China.To access pot...Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns.Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China.To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species,we used the maximum-entropy modeling(MaxEnt)method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink.Predictions were based on two periods(2050 and 2070),three general circulation models(GCMs:BCC-CSM1-1,HadGEM2-ES,MIROC5),four representative concentration pathways(RCP:2.6,4.5,6.0 and 8.0)and 28 environmental variables including topography,human impact,bio-climate and habitat.We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC,KAPPA and TSS.The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9,BIO14,BIO15,HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model.Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis,we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31500316)。
文摘Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns.Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China.To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species,we used the maximum-entropy modeling(MaxEnt)method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink.Predictions were based on two periods(2050 and 2070),three general circulation models(GCMs:BCC-CSM1-1,HadGEM2-ES,MIROC5),four representative concentration pathways(RCP:2.6,4.5,6.0 and 8.0)and 28 environmental variables including topography,human impact,bio-climate and habitat.We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC,KAPPA and TSS.The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9,BIO14,BIO15,HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model.Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis,we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.
