This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relev...This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China&...Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China's economic growth has six structural characteristics-- demographic transition,industrial productivity redistribution,income distribution adjustments,increasing urbanization,decreasing capital efficiency and little room for total factor productivity improvement.These factors together may cause a slowdown in economic growth.(2) The risk of economic slowdown in China's economic transformation may be due to the readjustment of income distribution,excessive ineffective investment,increasing economic leverage ratio and fast growing service sector of industrial structure.(3) In response to the potential risks of China's economic slowdown,improving capital efficiency should be the focus of our policy.To establish an inefficient-enterpriseclearing mechanism as well as deepening the reform of corresponding system is the only way to a steady economic growth in the future.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金funded by the major project of "Research on Accelerating Economic Restructuring and Promoting Self-coordinated Economic Development"(Approval No.12&ZD084)key project of National Social Science Foundation"Research on Patterns,Evolution Mechanisms and Sustainable Development of China's Urbanization"(Approval No.12AJL009)
文摘Based on the expanded growth accounting framework,this paper discussed the structural characteristics of China's economic transformation and its related issues and came up with the following conclusions:(1) China's economic growth has six structural characteristics-- demographic transition,industrial productivity redistribution,income distribution adjustments,increasing urbanization,decreasing capital efficiency and little room for total factor productivity improvement.These factors together may cause a slowdown in economic growth.(2) The risk of economic slowdown in China's economic transformation may be due to the readjustment of income distribution,excessive ineffective investment,increasing economic leverage ratio and fast growing service sector of industrial structure.(3) In response to the potential risks of China's economic slowdown,improving capital efficiency should be the focus of our policy.To establish an inefficient-enterpriseclearing mechanism as well as deepening the reform of corresponding system is the only way to a steady economic growth in the future.
基金supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China(11371007,61370002,61403132)Multi-Year Research of University of Macao under Grants No.MYRG205(Y1-L4)-FST11-TYY and No.MYRG187(Y1-L3))-FST11-TYY+1 种基金Start-up Research of University of Macao under Grant No.SRG010-FST11-TYYNatural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(2011CDA003)
