The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows:after implementing the universal two-child policy,China's grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.

China's Universal Second-Child Policy: Grounds, Effects and Strategies

The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Implications of an Unlimited Fertility Policy in China:Lessons from Low Fertility and Population Aging in Japan and Korea

In 2016 China began implementing a new population strategy after having maintained a one-child policy for 35 years.This paper draws on the lessons we can learn about low fertility and population aging in Japan and South Korea to consider the implications of the newly announced'universal two-child'policy in China.Japan,Korea and China share many socio-cultural characteristics and have undergone similar processes with respect to low fertility and population aging at different periods of time.Many scholars argue that China's family planning program has greatly reduced China's fertility level,but the effects of other socioeconomic factors have,in fact,had a greater impact on the reduction of the fertility rate than the one-child policy had.Considering the effects of the fertility policy that limits the number of births in China and the lessons we can get from unsuccessful fertility boosting measures in Japan and Korea,this paper suggests that a fertility policy that puts no limits on births should be adopted in China.

Population ageing and the impacts of the universal two-child policy on China’s socio-economy

The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility.It argues that the universal two-child policy is timely and necessary for the New Normal economy.The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth,for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition.Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory,this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world.It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in China.The universally adopted two-child policy,as it meets the requirements of demographic transition,is also inevitable for socio-economic development.

From“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy:Will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

With the rapid population aging,the payment crisis of China’s pension insurance fund is increasing yearly.The government adjusts fertility policy to alleviate population aging and improve the solvency of pension insurance fund.On January1,2016,China’s fertility policy was adjusted from“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy.This paper establishes actuarial models to analyze how fertility policy adjustment influences the pension insurance fund and concludes as follows:(1)if the“one-child policy”were still employed,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would appear in the year of 2076;(2)if all couples that satisfy the rules of“selective two-child policy”bear the second child,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would be postponed by about 9 years;(3)after implementing universal two-child policy,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would delay under different situations of fertility intentions,if more than 54% of the qualified couples bear a second child,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would not appear before 2090.The above conclusions have passed the sensitivity tests.Therefore,“two-child policy”can alleviate the payment pressure of pension insurance fund.If the government wants to solve the payment crisis of pension insurance fund,fertility intentions should be improved.

The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population

The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.

Education Universalization,Rural School Participation,and Population Density

In many developing countries,low population density may be a major reason for low school participation in rural areas,and the problem is likely to worsen with rapid urbanization.However,few studies have investigated empirically the role of population density in rural education,especially the moderating effect of population density on the outcomes of education policies.This study aims to fill this gap in the literature.From 1999 through the early 2000s,China launched a set of major nationwide policies aimed at universalizing 9-year compulsory education in rural areas.Using difference-in-differences and triple difference strategies,we show that the policies significantly increased the probability of junior high school enrollment of rural children and,more importantly,these policies were more effective in densely populated regions.These findings confirm the imporance of population density to rural education.