Spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River Basin: Response to climate changes

The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)is an important region for China's economic development.However,it has a complex terrain layout,most of which is affected by monsoon weather,and the geographical and temporal distribution of water resources is severely unbalanced.Therefore,the detailed analysis of spatio-temporal water mass changes is helpful to the development and rational utilization of water resources in the YRB.In this study,the variation of terrestrial water storage(TWS)is monitored by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity.We find that the University of Texas Center for Space Research(CSR)solution shows a notable difference with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL)in space,but the general trend is consistent in time series.Then the GRACE inferred water mass variation reveals that the YRB has experienced several drought and flood events over the past two decades.Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)results are similar to GRACE.Furthermore,the overall precipitation trend tends to be stable in space,but it is greatly influenced by the strong El Nino-~Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which is the response to global climate change.The upper YRB is less affected by ENSO and shows a more stable water storage signal with respect to the lower YRB.

Water storage changes in North America retrieved from GRACE gravity and GPS data

As global warming continues,the monitoring of changes in terrestrial water storage becomes increasingly important since it plays a critical role in understanding global change and water resource management.In North America as elsewhere in the world,changes in water resources strongly impact agriculture and animal husbandry.From a combination of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） gravity and Global Positioning System（GPS） data,it is recently found that water storage from August,2002 to March,2011 recovered after the extreme Canadian Prairies drought between 1999 and 2005.In this paper,we use GRACE monthly gravity data of Release 5 to track the water storage change from August,2002 to June,2014.In Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes areas,the total water storage is found to have increased during the last decade by a rate of 73.8 ± 14.5 Gt/a,which is larger than that found in the previous study due to the longer time span of GRACE observations used and the reduction of the leakage error.We also find a long term decrease of water storage at a rate of-12.0 ± 4.2 Gt/a in Ungava Peninsula,possibly due to permafrost degradation and less snow accumulation during the winter in the region.In addition,the effect of total mass gain in the surveyed area,on present-day sea level,amounts to-0.18 mm/a,and thus should be taken into account in studies of global sea level change.

An estimation of groundwater storage variations from GRACE gravity satellites in the Heihe River Basin, northwestern China

There are only limited surface water resources available in the Heihe River Basin （HRB）, a typical inland river basin in the arid region of northwestern China, where groundwater overexploitation is a serious problem. Groundwater has become one of main resources of fresh water in the HRB. In this paper, temporal and spatial variations of groundwater in the HRB are estimated by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） satellites. Our analysis shows that groundwater storage in the HRB reaches its highest in the summer of 2005, and then begins to decline in the following years and reaches steady status in 2008. Spatially, groundwater shows a decline in the upper HRB in the first two years and a slight increase in the following years, while this phenomenon is reversed in the middle HRB where groundwater slightly increases in 2005 and then declines in the following three years. In the lower HRB, GRACE detects a continual increase in the full six-year period. This approach is proven successful when employed in the HRB and thus offers a new insight into monitoring groundwater variations in a river basin with limited or even without any observed data.

Water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin estimated from GRACE and satellite altimetry

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively study terrestrial water storage（TWS） variations. In this paper,the terrestrial water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin are recovered from the GRACE gravity data from January 2003 to March 2014 and compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS） hydrological models and satellite altimetry. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture content from GLDAS and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM） on TWS variations are investigated. Our results indicate that the TWS variations from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry have a general consistency. The TWS trends in the Poyang Lake Basin determined from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry are increasing at 0.0141 km^3/a, 0.0328 km^3/a and 0.0238 km^3/a,respectively during the investigated time period. The TWS is governed mainly by the soil moisture content and dominated primarily by the precipitation but also modulated by the flood season of the Yangtze River as well as the lake and river exchange water.

Terrestrial water storage variation in Hebei plain area of China,based on ground surface gravimetry

Variation of terrestrial water storage in the Hebei plain area from March 2010 to June 2014 was studied using ground gravimetry combined with vertical displacement data from the Global Navigation Satellite System.Results show that observed gravity variation in this area increased continuously,basically reflecting a trend toward land subsidence.With the effect of this subsidence removed,a dominantnegative change in gravity variation was evident,reflecting an average rate of decrease in terrestrial water in this area of 0.10±0.053 m/y,and this is equivalent to a volume of 81.5±43.2×108 m^(3)and is consistent with the spatial distribution of groundwater change from measured hydrologic data.These results can be an essential reference and supplement for the study of terrestrial water variation in the Hebei plain area,and indicate that ground surface gravimetry can be used as an important mean for studying changes in terrestrial water.

Water storage changes and balances in Africa observed by GRACE and hydrologic models

Continental water storage plays a major role in Earth's climate system.However,temporal and spatial variations of continental water are poorly known,particularly in Africa.Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite mission provides an opportunity to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)variations at both continental and river-basin scales.In this paper,seasonal and secular variations of TWS within Africa for the period from January 2003 to July 2013 are assessed using monthly GRACE coefficients from three processing centers(Centre for Space Research,the German Research Centre for Geo-sciences,and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory).Monthly grids from Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)-I and from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)-3B43 models are also used in order to understand the reasons of increasing or decreasing water storage.Results from GRACE processing centers show similar TWS estimates at seasonal timescales with some differences concerning inter-annual trend variations.The largest annual signals of GRACE TWS are observed in Zambezi and Okavango River basins and in Volta River Basin.An increasing trend of 11.60 mm/a is found in Zambezi River Basin and of 9 mm/a in Volta River Basin.A phase shift is found between rainfall and GRACE TWS GRACE TWS is preceded by rainfall by 2-3 months in parts of south central Africa.Comparing GLDAS rainfall with TRMM model,it is found that GLDAS has a dry bias from TRMM model.

Assessing Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Water Storage Changes in the Mountainous Areas of Central Asia Based on GRACE

The mountainous areas of Central Asia provide substantial water resources, and studying change in water storage and the impacts of precipitation and snow cover in the mountain ranges of Central Asia is of the greatest importance for understanding regional water shortages and the main factors. Data from the GRACE （Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment） satellites, precipitation prod- ucts and snow-covered area data were used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes and the effects of precipitation and snow cover from April 2002 to December 2013. The results were computed for each mountain ranges, and the follow- ing conclusions were drawn. The water storage in the mountainous areas of Central Asia as a whole increases in summer and winter, whereas it decreases in autumn. The water storage is affected by precipitation to some extent and some areas exhibit hysteresis. The area of positive water storage changes moves from west to east over the course of the year. The water storage declined during the period 2002-2004. It then returned to a higher level in 2005-2006 and featured lower levels in 2007-009 Subsequently, the water storage increased gradually from 2010 to 2013. The Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountain subzones examined in this study display similar tendencies, and the trends observed in the Karakorum Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains are also similar. However, the Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountains were influenced by precipitation to a greater degree than the latter two ranges. The water storage in Qilian Mountains showed a pronounced increasing trend, and this range is the most strongly affected by precipitation. Based on an analysis of all investigated subzones, precipitation has the greatest influence on total water storage relative to the snow covered area in some areas of Central Asia. The results obtained from this study will be of value for scientists stud- ying the mechanisms that influence changes in water storage in Central Asia.

南水北调东线工程运行前后山东省水储量变化分析

为掌握南水北调东线工程对山东省陆地水储量变化的影响,采用2010年1月至2017年12月GRACE重力卫星数据,结合同期主要水文要素(降水量、蒸散发量)数据集,以南水北调开通时间为界,利用分时间段分区域的方式对研究区陆地水储量变化、主要水文要素变化进行研究,结合同期南水北调工程调水量数据推算南水北调工程对山东省水储量变化的影响。结果表明:研究时段内,多年间研究区水储量空间分布呈从东到西依次降低的态势,季节特性表现为夏秋季水储量丰富,而春冬季较少;分时段研究结果显示水储量衰减速度在南水北调工程开通前后分别为-1.45、-0.36 cm/a,综合多个水文要素数据集计算发现南水北调工程对鲁西的中南部、鲁中的南部产生了较好的正向影响。综合而言,南水北调工程缓解了山东省水储量56.9%的下降趋势,在研究时间段内对研究区水资源条件、水储量富集产生了较为积极的作用。

海上重力储能技术研究进展及展望

该文从储能介质角度出发,分别介绍国内外海上重力储能技术研究进展和工程实例,总结并分析其优势与不足。目前,国内外已提出诸多可行性方案,但大部分方案仍处于初步研究阶段。借此对海上重力储能作出前景展望,以期为相关人员提供参考和借鉴。

GRACE-based estimates of water discharge over the Yellow River basin

As critical component of hydrologic cycle, basin discharge is a key issue for understanding the hydrological and climatologic related to water and energy cycles. Combining GRACE gravity field models with ET from GLDAS models and precipitation from GPCP, discharge of the Yellow River basin are estimated from the water balance equation. While comparing the results with discharge from GLDAS model and in situ measurements, the results reveal that discharge from Mosaic and CLM GLDAS model can partially represent the river discharge and the discharge estimation from water balance equation could reflect the discharge from precipitation over the Yellow River basin.

Analytical study on abnormal change in time-variable gravity at Yichang seismostation before the M5.1 Badong earthquake

An M5.1 earthquake occurred in Badong County, only 66 km from the Three Gorges Dam, on De- cember 16, 2013. The continuous gravity observation data obtained at Yichang seismostation nearest to the epi- center （96 km） were analyzed, and it was found that the continuous gravity observation data obtained in this rainy season did not exhibit a characteristic of seasonal change in gravity identical to that in the past years, and thereafter the M5.1 Badong earthquake occurred. Numerical simulation revealed that the water storage and discharge of the Three Gorges reservoir generated seasonal change in gravity, and the changes in atmospheric pressure and gravity load were not the main sources of the seasonal change of continuous gravity observation data whether in respect of magnitude or phase and did not have obvious breaking change on annual variation before the earthquake. Through analysis of the seasonal change data observed on the same site including cavern temperature, rainfall data and global terrestrial water model （CPC） simulated water load, it was thought that, in the observation room with cavern temperature change of only -0.1 l^C/a at Yichang seismostation, the sea- sonal change of continuous gravity observation result mainly originated from the seasonal change in rainfall. In the case that the changes in rainfall and its water load did not have evident breaking change on annual varia- tion law before the earthquake, if the MS. 1 Badong earthquake was the cause of the breaking change on annual variation law in Yichang this time, then it was believed through analysis of crust expansion ratio that similar a- nomaly should occur at a crust expansion and compression intersection, no more than 100 km away from the epicenter.

Monthly gravity field recovery from GRACE orbits and K-band measurements using variational equations approach

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） mission can significantly improve our knowledge of the temporal variability of the Earth＇s gravity field.We obtained monthly gravity field solutions based on variational equations approach from GPS-derived positions of GRACE satellites and K-band range-rate measurements.The impact of different fixed data weighting ratios in temporal gravity field recovery while combining the two types of data was investigated for the purpose of deriving the best combined solution.The monthly gravity field solution obtained through above procedures was named as the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics（IGG） temporal gravity field models.IGG temporal gravity field models were compared with GRACE Release05（RL05） products in following aspects：（i） the trend of the mass anomaly in China and its nearby regions within 2005-2010; （ii） the root mean squares of the global mass anomaly during 2005-2010; （iii） time-series changes in the mean water storage in the region of the Amazon Basin and the Sahara Desert between 2005 and 2010.The results showed that IGG solutions were almost consistent with GRACE RL05 products in above aspects（i）-（iii）.Changes in the annual amplitude of mean water storage in the Amazon Basin were 14.7 ± 1.2 cm for IGG,17.1 ± 1.3 cm for the Centre for Space Research（CSR）,16.4 ± 0.9 cm for the GeoForschungsZentrum（GFZ） and 16.9 ± 1.2 cm for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory（JPL） in terms of equivalent water height（EWH）,respectively.The root mean squares of the mean mass anomaly in Sahara were 1.2 cm,0.9 cm,0.9 cm and 1.2 cm for temporal gravity field models of IGG,CSR,GFZ and JPL,respectively.Comparison suggested that IGG temporal gravity field solutions were at the same accuracy level with the latest temporal gravity field solutions published by CSR,GFZ and JPL.

Low-frequency variability of terrestrial water budget in China using GRACE satellite measurements from 2003 to 2010

Mass variations in terrestrial water storage（TWS） obtained from eight years of satellite data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） are used to describe low frequency TWS through Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analysis. Results of the second seasonal EOF mode show the influence of the Meiyu season. Annual variability is clearly shown in the precipitation distribution over China, and two new patterns of interannual variability are presented for the first time from observations, where two periods of abrupt acceleration are seen in 2004 and 2008. GRACE successfully measures drought events in southern China, and in this respect, an association with the Arctic Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This study demonstrates the unique potential of satellite gravity measurements in monitoring TWS variations and large-scale severe drought in China.

GRACE与GRACE Follow-On重力卫星数据揭示出的黄河流域2002-2020年干旱特征

研究黄河流域干旱时空变化特征,对认知黄河流域水资源演化规律具有重要意义。本文充分利用GRACE(gravity recovery and climate experiment)与GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-On)重力卫星在大尺度范围下监测水文信息变化中的优势,基于2002年4月至2020年7月GRACE和GRACE-FO RL06 Mascon数据,计算了黄河流域陆地水储量异常(terrestrial water storage anomaly,TWSA)及对应的水储量亏损赤字(water storage deficit index,WSDI),据此分析了黄河流域上游、中下游干旱事件及其严重性、干旱持续时间、平均与最大水储量赤字等干旱特征,并与其他4种常用干旱指数,标准降水蒸散发指数(standardized precipitation evaporation index,SPEI)、自矫正帕尔默干旱指数(self correct-Palmer drought severity index,sc-PDSI)、标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(standardized runoff index,SRI)识别结果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:在WSDI识别出的黄河流域上游、中下游分别发生的5期干旱事件及其对应的干旱等级中,存在其他传统干旱指数未识别现象;在黄河流域以往干旱事件识别中,WSDI也展现出了较其他4种传统干旱指数显著的识别优势。相比传统干旱指标多仅依赖于稀疏地表水文监测信息,基于重力卫星监测数据的WSDI干旱指标可在大尺度范围下有效识别出流域干旱特征。

SWARM卫星时变重力场反演及其精度

基于SWARM卫星的精密轨道数据,利用短弧积分法解算2015-01~2021-12共84个月的40阶次TVG-SWARM月时变重力场模型,并与ASU、COST-G、IGG和ITSG等机构的月时变重力场模型进行比较。结果表明:1)从大地水准面阶误差与模型位系数误差谱看,不同SWARM模型的低阶位系数精度相当,特别是前10阶均与ITSG-GRACE/GRACE-FO接近;2)不同SWARM模型与ITSG-GRACE/GRACE-FO模型全球陆地水储量变化趋势空间分布具有较好的一致性,在亚马孙流域、格陵兰岛、密西西比河流域和西西伯利亚等区域,TVG-SWARM与ITSG-GRACE/GRACE-FO模型的趋势差值分别为0.23 cm/a、0.27 cm/a、0.57 cm/a和0.47 cm/a,相关系数均达到0.85以上,并与IGG-SWARM模型结果最为接近。本文研究结果证明了TVG-SWARM模型精度可靠,可以用于监测大尺度陆地水储量变化。

青藏高原陆地水储量对植被变化的响应特征分析

青藏高原被誉为“亚洲水塔”,其水系统变化特征受到社会各界的高度关注。本文基于GRACE重力卫星、归一化植被指数和蒸腾、气温和降水等数据,分析青藏高原陆地水储量变化时空格局,解读水储量变化对植被变化的响应特征。研究结果表明,①青藏高原陆地水储量变化可分为2个阶段:2003―2012年,水储量变化相对稳定;2012―2016年,水储量呈递减趋势。空间上表现为,南部外流区显著亏损(部分区域达–12 mm/a,P<0.01),而中北部羌塘内流区则显著盈余。但内流区水储量的盈余趋势在2012年发生了逆转,由盈余转为亏损。②2002―2016年,青藏高原呈变绿趋势,61%的格点植被变绿,39%的格点植被褐化(位于高原南部、北部及西北部区域)。③青藏高原植被指数与陆地水储量的直接关系不明显,因为高原植被主要位于东南部,其他区域植被稀疏。但植被通过蒸腾作用可间接影响该区域陆地水储量变化,当青藏高原植被变绿,植被蒸腾增加,导致土壤水储量亏损,进而影响区域陆地水储量变化。研究结果有助于深化认识变暖背景下青藏高原大气圈–生物圈–水圈之间的相互作用关系。

长江流域陆地水储量异常的卫星重力监测与干旱指数对比分析

利用GRACE/GRACE-FO数据对长江流域2003~2021年期间发生的干旱事件进行定量分析,以探究卫星重力监测区域性干旱的可行性。采用3个机构发布的5种GRACE/GRACE-FO数据产品(CSR_SH、JPL_SH、GFZ_SH、CSR_M、JPL_M)反演长江流域陆地水储量异常(TWSA),计算陆地水储量亏损(WSD)和水储量亏损指数(WSDI),结合气象干旱数据(SPI、SPEI、scPDSI)对5种数据产品的结果进行比较,并对2003~2021年长江流域干旱事件进行分析。结果表明,不同机构发布的GRACE/GRACE-FO数据产品对长江流域干旱事件严重等级的划分具有一定差异;WSDI与6个月时间尺度的SPEI相关性最高,相关系数为0.66,与scPDSI相关系数最低为0.54,降水是影响长江流域陆地水储量变化的重要因素;长江流域最严重的干旱事件发生在2019年夏秋季,干旱强度为2.31,持续10个月,水储量累计亏损达到415 Gt,此次干旱事件的WSDI空间分布图显示2019-09干旱最为严重,出现极端干旱区域。WSDI可反映长江流域干旱分布的时空变化,可在监测全球和大尺度区域干旱方面发挥重要作用。

Seasonal water storage change of the Yangtze River basin detected by GRACE

US-Germany co-sponsered satellite gravimetry mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment), launched in March 2002, has been producing monthly time series of Earth gravity models up to degree and order of 120. The GRACE mission consists of two identical satellites flying on an almost polar orbit with an altitude of about 300-500 km and satelite-to-satellite ranging of about 220 km. Thanks to the payloads of space-borne GPS receivers, accelerometers and high-precision K-band satelite-to-satellite ranging mesurements, GRACE gravity models are expected to achieve more than one order of magnitude of improvement over previous models at spatial scales of a few hundred kilometers or larger. Recovery of surface mass re-distribution based on GRACE’s time-varying gravity models is applied to studies in solid Earth geophysics, oceanography, climatology and geodesy. At secular time scales, GRACE is expected to provide valuable information on global ice changes, whose variations have profound influences on global climate, and in particular, on sea level changes. At seasonal time scales, GRACE is expected to reveal surface water changes with an ac- curacy of less than 1 cm, or ocean bottom pressure changes with an accuracy of less than 1 mbar (1 mbar =102 Pa). These surface mass redistribution measurements would impove our understanding of the global and regional mass and energy cycles that are critical to human life. Using 15 GRACE monthly gravity models covering the period from April 2002 to December 2003, this study compares seasonal water storage changes recovered from GRACE data and hydrology models at global and regional scales, with particular focus on the Yangtze River basin of China. Annual amplitude of 3.4 cm of equivalent water height change is found for the Yangtze River basin with maximum in Spring and Autumn, agreeing with two state-of-the-art hydrology models. The differences between GRACE re- sults and model predictions are less than 1-2 cm. We conclude that satellite gravimetry has huge potentials in monitering water storage changes in large river basins such as Yangtze.

Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China

Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of the climate system, thus affecting the energy budget and water cycle process of the land-atmosphere system. Under changes in key hydrological elements such as precipitation, runoff, and terrestrial water storage, future drought variation remains a complex question. Existing studies have utilized terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA) in drought monitoring and assessment, but they usually focused on either drought duration or intensity, overlooking the multi-faced attributes of droughts as well as their socioeconomic impacts under a non-stationary condition. In this study, we first identify dry/wet conditions over China using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations, and then evaluate the feedback effects of humidity and energy factors(e.g., sensible heat flux, latent heat flux,atmospheric relative humidity, and convective available potential energy) to drought events. Future changes in TWSA and dry/wet conditions are projected by eight Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs)under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), with their biases corrected by a trend-preserving quantile mapping method.The time-varying Copula function of drought duration and intensity is constructed by a moving windows method, and future bivariate drought risks are quantified with the most likely realization method. The population and GDP affected by increasing drought risks are finally quantified based on the SSPs data. It is found that the land-atmosphere coupling effects closely interact with drought evolution, and the uneven distribution of water resources is projected to be further aggravated, with most areas of China will be threatened by continuous drying tendency. By the end of the century, the duration of moderate, severe and exceptional droughts in some regions of China will double, and the drought intensity will increase by over 80%. For the 50-year bivariate droughts during the historical period, their occurrence may increase by 5–10 times in several regions, and might affect about 35–55% of China’s population and GDP at the end of 21st century.

基于降水数据重构的中国大陆区域陆地水储量研究

针对重力恢复与气候试验(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,GRACE)和其后继卫星(GRACE Follow-on,GRACE-FO)之间存在约1年的观测间断问题,利用降水和温度数据对陆地水储量间断期数据进行重构。以中国大陆区域陆地水储量异常(Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly,TWSA)研究为例,采用时间序列分析法补充数据间断,并对重构效果进行评价。结果表明,基于降水数据的重构方法可较好地补充中国大陆区域的TWSA,各流域间断期前后重构序列和原序列相关系数均超过0.8,在相对湿润的长江流域和珠江流域重构效果较好。