In this paper,by carrying out sensitivity tests of initial conditions and diagnostic analysis of physical fields,the impact factors and the physical mechanism of the unusual track of Morakot in the Taiwan Strait are d...In this paper,by carrying out sensitivity tests of initial conditions and diagnostic analysis of physical fields,the impact factors and the physical mechanism of the unusual track of Morakot in the Taiwan Strait are discussed and examined based on the potential vorticity(PV)inversion.The diagnostic results of NCEP data showed that Morakot's track was mainly steered by the subtropical high.The breaking of a high-pressure zone was the main cause for the northward turn of Morakot.A sensitivity test of initial conditions showed that the existence of upper-level trough was the leading factor for the breaking of the high-pressure zone.When the intensity was strengthened of the upper-level trough at initial time,the high-pressure zone would break ahead of time,leading to the early northward turn of Morakot.Conversely,when the intensity was weakened,the breaking of the high-pressure zone would be delayed.Especially,when the intensity was weakened to a certain extent,the high-pressure zone would not break.The typhoon,steered by the easterly flow to the south of the high-pressure zone,would keep moving westward,with no turn in the test.The diagnostic analysis of the physical fields based on the sensitivity test revealed that positive vorticity advection and cold advection associated with the upper-level trough weakened the intensity of the high-pressure zone.The upper-level trough affected typhoon's track indirectly by influencing the high-pressure zone.展开更多
Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low...Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong.展开更多
In this study,the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Mindulle (2004) at high resolution (3-km grid size...In this study,the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Mindulle (2004) at high resolution (3-km grid size).The data from measurements show that in the upper atmosphere the existence of an upper jet is important to the transition cyclone.When Mindulle moved to the area of the upper jet entrance,where high-altitude divergence existed, the pumping of the high-altitude divergence would enhance the vertical motion and low-level cyclone convergence. The enhanced vertical motion was confirmed by the simulation results and indicated that the existence of upper divergence enhanced the vertical motion which was favorable for the maintenance of Typhoon Mindulle.The process of extratropical transition (ET) and re-intensification always accompanies the process of cold air invasion. This process enhances the baroclinicity of the atmosphere and the formation of front at high altitudes, which converts baroclinic potential energy into kinetic energy and strengthens the cyclone vortex.The distributions of equivalent potential temperature (θe) and temperature anomalies show that the warm-core of the typhoon at the tropopause aids the re-intensification of the system. As the typhoon reenters the ocean, latent heat flux (LHF) increases in the north and west and the strong reflectivity and vertical motion occur in the east and southeast,and the west.With the re-intensification of the typhoon the wind field evolves from an oval to a circle at the lower atmosphere, the area coverage by high winds increases, and the distribution of the tangential wind shows an asymmetric pattern.展开更多
2013年7月4—7日江淮地区出现了入梅以来的第一次持续性暴雨,造成江淮地区严重的洪涝灾害。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)逐6 h的1°×1°再分析资料、FY-2F卫星云量资料和江淮地区72个气象站逐日降水资料,对此次暴雨过...2013年7月4—7日江淮地区出现了入梅以来的第一次持续性暴雨,造成江淮地区严重的洪涝灾害。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)逐6 h的1°×1°再分析资料、FY-2F卫星云量资料和江淮地区72个气象站逐日降水资料,对此次暴雨过程的成因进行分析。结果表明:在500 h Pa以径向环流为主的背景形势下,江淮地区上空缓慢移近梅雨锋的西南涡是此次降水过程的关键系统。高空急流、500 h Pa高空槽、西南低空急流、西南涡、边界层急流和梅雨锋共同作用形成深厚的辐合层,低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直结构增强了大气的抽吸作用,造成强烈的垂直运动。边界层强的垂直风切变触发了对流不稳定能量的释放。来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽通过西南超低空急流向江淮地区输送,为江淮地区带来水汽和热力条件。南方暖空气和北方冷空气交汇于江淮地区,形成假相当位温密集带,产生天气尺度的上升运动,雨带主要位于密集带的南侧,可作为雨区预报的参考。展开更多
利用NCEP的1°×1°资料,分析飓风"桑迪"温带变性前后物理量的特征和变化。结果表明:利用对流层低层、中层及高层的厚度场可立体直观地展现热带气旋中心热力结构的对称性,便于进行飓风温带变性的诊断分析。涡度...利用NCEP的1°×1°资料,分析飓风"桑迪"温带变性前后物理量的特征和变化。结果表明:利用对流层低层、中层及高层的厚度场可立体直观地展现热带气旋中心热力结构的对称性,便于进行飓风温带变性的诊断分析。涡度场可诊断高空槽和飓风耦合的情况,两者的正涡度场连接后使热带气旋受到高空槽的影响开始变性。厚度变形场动力强迫上升、低层锋区抬升、强降水区凝结潜热正反馈作用和高空辐散加强等有利于飓风"桑迪"变性过程中深对流的维持及发展,并导致强上升区域向西偏离。飓风"桑迪"变性后暖心结构下降至对流层中低层,与强上升运动中心下降有关。适度的冷空气强度对飓风"桑迪"的加强有利,冷空气较弱飓风加强较慢,冷空气过强易破坏飓风的暖心结构,导致中心填塞。850 h Pa温度平流对变性后飓风"桑迪"的移动路径有一定的指示意义,飓风基本朝着冷平流中心指向暖平流中心的方向移动。展开更多
该文利用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°分析资料对2014年2月发生在怀化的3次低温雨雪天气过程的成因和降水相态变化特征进行了多种资料诊断分析,得到以下结论:3次过程是在有利的大尺度环流背景下发生的,贝加尔湖冷涡稳定维持...该文利用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°分析资料对2014年2月发生在怀化的3次低温雨雪天气过程的成因和降水相态变化特征进行了多种资料诊断分析,得到以下结论:3次过程是在有利的大尺度环流背景下发生的,贝加尔湖冷涡稳定维持,冷涡底部多短波槽活动,地面冷高压主体稳定少动,地面冷空气从东路分股南下;低层西南急流将来自印度洋的暖湿空气源源不断地输送到长江流域,冷暖气流在长江流域交汇,导致了持续雨雪天气的发生。3次过程中均有冷锋锋区自地面向高空倾斜,强锋区使低层和地面维持低温天气,暖湿空气则沿锋面强迫抬升,低层不稳定能量得以释放,有利于雨雪的发生。低层偏南气流的发展加强不但为降雪提供了水汽条件,也有利于冷暖气流的交汇和暖湿空气的垂直输送。降水相态的变化与温度层结特征以及气层厚度密切相关,冷式逆温层和700 h Pa与850 h Pa高度差小于155 dagpm的气层更有利于纯雪的出现。展开更多
基金National Public Benefit(Meteorology)Research Foundation of China(GYHY201106004)National Basic Research Program"973"of China(2009CB421502)National Nature Science Foundation of China (40730948,41005029)
文摘In this paper,by carrying out sensitivity tests of initial conditions and diagnostic analysis of physical fields,the impact factors and the physical mechanism of the unusual track of Morakot in the Taiwan Strait are discussed and examined based on the potential vorticity(PV)inversion.The diagnostic results of NCEP data showed that Morakot's track was mainly steered by the subtropical high.The breaking of a high-pressure zone was the main cause for the northward turn of Morakot.A sensitivity test of initial conditions showed that the existence of upper-level trough was the leading factor for the breaking of the high-pressure zone.When the intensity was strengthened of the upper-level trough at initial time,the high-pressure zone would break ahead of time,leading to the early northward turn of Morakot.Conversely,when the intensity was weakened,the breaking of the high-pressure zone would be delayed.Especially,when the intensity was weakened to a certain extent,the high-pressure zone would not break.The typhoon,steered by the easterly flow to the south of the high-pressure zone,would keep moving westward,with no turn in the test.The diagnostic analysis of the physical fields based on the sensitivity test revealed that positive vorticity advection and cold advection associated with the upper-level trough weakened the intensity of the high-pressure zone.The upper-level trough affected typhoon's track indirectly by influencing the high-pressure zone.
基金Specialized Research Project of Novel Meteorological Technologies for Forecasters from China Meteorological Administration (CMATG2007Y04)Science Bureau of Guangdong (2006B37202004)+1 种基金Guangdong Meteorological Bureau (2008A02)Specialized Project for Industries for Public Well-being(Meteorological Sector) (GYHY201006018)
文摘Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40876004,40890155 and 40675060)National 973 Project(Nos.2009CB-421500 and 2007CB411801)
文摘In this study,the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Mindulle (2004) at high resolution (3-km grid size).The data from measurements show that in the upper atmosphere the existence of an upper jet is important to the transition cyclone.When Mindulle moved to the area of the upper jet entrance,where high-altitude divergence existed, the pumping of the high-altitude divergence would enhance the vertical motion and low-level cyclone convergence. The enhanced vertical motion was confirmed by the simulation results and indicated that the existence of upper divergence enhanced the vertical motion which was favorable for the maintenance of Typhoon Mindulle.The process of extratropical transition (ET) and re-intensification always accompanies the process of cold air invasion. This process enhances the baroclinicity of the atmosphere and the formation of front at high altitudes, which converts baroclinic potential energy into kinetic energy and strengthens the cyclone vortex.The distributions of equivalent potential temperature (θe) and temperature anomalies show that the warm-core of the typhoon at the tropopause aids the re-intensification of the system. As the typhoon reenters the ocean, latent heat flux (LHF) increases in the north and west and the strong reflectivity and vertical motion occur in the east and southeast,and the west.With the re-intensification of the typhoon the wind field evolves from an oval to a circle at the lower atmosphere, the area coverage by high winds increases, and the distribution of the tangential wind shows an asymmetric pattern.
文摘2013年7月4—7日江淮地区出现了入梅以来的第一次持续性暴雨,造成江淮地区严重的洪涝灾害。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)逐6 h的1°×1°再分析资料、FY-2F卫星云量资料和江淮地区72个气象站逐日降水资料,对此次暴雨过程的成因进行分析。结果表明:在500 h Pa以径向环流为主的背景形势下,江淮地区上空缓慢移近梅雨锋的西南涡是此次降水过程的关键系统。高空急流、500 h Pa高空槽、西南低空急流、西南涡、边界层急流和梅雨锋共同作用形成深厚的辐合层,低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直结构增强了大气的抽吸作用,造成强烈的垂直运动。边界层强的垂直风切变触发了对流不稳定能量的释放。来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽通过西南超低空急流向江淮地区输送,为江淮地区带来水汽和热力条件。南方暖空气和北方冷空气交汇于江淮地区,形成假相当位温密集带,产生天气尺度的上升运动,雨带主要位于密集带的南侧,可作为雨区预报的参考。
文摘利用NCEP的1°×1°资料,分析飓风"桑迪"温带变性前后物理量的特征和变化。结果表明:利用对流层低层、中层及高层的厚度场可立体直观地展现热带气旋中心热力结构的对称性,便于进行飓风温带变性的诊断分析。涡度场可诊断高空槽和飓风耦合的情况,两者的正涡度场连接后使热带气旋受到高空槽的影响开始变性。厚度变形场动力强迫上升、低层锋区抬升、强降水区凝结潜热正反馈作用和高空辐散加强等有利于飓风"桑迪"变性过程中深对流的维持及发展,并导致强上升区域向西偏离。飓风"桑迪"变性后暖心结构下降至对流层中低层,与强上升运动中心下降有关。适度的冷空气强度对飓风"桑迪"的加强有利,冷空气较弱飓风加强较慢,冷空气过强易破坏飓风的暖心结构,导致中心填塞。850 h Pa温度平流对变性后飓风"桑迪"的移动路径有一定的指示意义,飓风基本朝着冷平流中心指向暖平流中心的方向移动。
文摘该文利用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°分析资料对2014年2月发生在怀化的3次低温雨雪天气过程的成因和降水相态变化特征进行了多种资料诊断分析,得到以下结论:3次过程是在有利的大尺度环流背景下发生的,贝加尔湖冷涡稳定维持,冷涡底部多短波槽活动,地面冷高压主体稳定少动,地面冷空气从东路分股南下;低层西南急流将来自印度洋的暖湿空气源源不断地输送到长江流域,冷暖气流在长江流域交汇,导致了持续雨雪天气的发生。3次过程中均有冷锋锋区自地面向高空倾斜,强锋区使低层和地面维持低温天气,暖湿空气则沿锋面强迫抬升,低层不稳定能量得以释放,有利于雨雪的发生。低层偏南气流的发展加强不但为降雪提供了水汽条件,也有利于冷暖气流的交汇和暖湿空气的垂直输送。降水相态的变化与温度层结特征以及气层厚度密切相关,冷式逆温层和700 h Pa与850 h Pa高度差小于155 dagpm的气层更有利于纯雪的出现。
