Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable d...Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.展开更多
Since July 2014,when the international oil price slumped,the upstream sector of global oil and gas industry has experienced a tough transformation phase lasting over two years.In terms of the development trend,the glo...Since July 2014,when the international oil price slumped,the upstream sector of global oil and gas industry has experienced a tough transformation phase lasting over two years.In terms of the development trend,the global upstream sector has demonstrated six characteristics since 2017:firstly,global upstream investment will probably demonstrate the trend of "touching the ground and rising again";secondly,upstream operating costs will continually decline;thirdly,more favorable finance and taxation clauses will be offered for some resources to be developed through foreign cooperation;fourthly,global oil and gas output will probably further increase;fifthly,upstream exploration efficiency is anticipated to steadily increase;and sixthly,upstream geological understandings,theory and technology will continue to advance.In accordance with the above-mentioned development trends,Chinese oil enterprises must be prepared in four aspects for future rejuvenation.Firstly,persistent upstream investment has to be guaranteed,particularly in the exploration field;secondly,upstream operation efficiency must be promoted through the enhancement of technical research;thirdly,overseas upstream property must be purchased within the "time window";and fourthly,reforms have to be carried out to realize transformation in the petroleum industry.展开更多
文摘Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.
文摘Since July 2014,when the international oil price slumped,the upstream sector of global oil and gas industry has experienced a tough transformation phase lasting over two years.In terms of the development trend,the global upstream sector has demonstrated six characteristics since 2017:firstly,global upstream investment will probably demonstrate the trend of "touching the ground and rising again";secondly,upstream operating costs will continually decline;thirdly,more favorable finance and taxation clauses will be offered for some resources to be developed through foreign cooperation;fourthly,global oil and gas output will probably further increase;fifthly,upstream exploration efficiency is anticipated to steadily increase;and sixthly,upstream geological understandings,theory and technology will continue to advance.In accordance with the above-mentioned development trends,Chinese oil enterprises must be prepared in four aspects for future rejuvenation.Firstly,persistent upstream investment has to be guaranteed,particularly in the exploration field;secondly,upstream operation efficiency must be promoted through the enhancement of technical research;thirdly,overseas upstream property must be purchased within the "time window";and fourthly,reforms have to be carried out to realize transformation in the petroleum industry.
