The Chinese Urban-rural Dual Economic Structure Model and Analysis

Based on the characteristics of urban-rural dual economic structure in China,we build a dynamic endogenous urban-rural dual economic model closely linked to China's reality,and carry out mathematical economics analysis of optimized conditions for urban and rural sectors. The main results show that:(i) The labor growth rate of urban-rural sectors must be greater than the time discount rate,or else there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(ii) The accumulation rate of physical capital and human capital of urban-rural sectors,and the rate of technological progress,need to be greater than the corresponding depreciation rate plus the time discount rate,otherwise there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(iii) The low accumulation rate in the rural sector,and the occurrence of labor outflow,human capital loss and lack of investment,will expand income gap between urban and rural areas,which is a reason for solidification of urban-rural dual economic structure.

Study on Factors Influencing Urban-rural Dual Economic Structure of Chongqing Based on the State Space Variable Parameter Method

Firstly,this paper reviews and analyzes historic background of urban-rural integration of Chongqing,and the evolution and trend of urban and rural dual economic structure.On the basis of previous researches,it selects factors and variables influencing urban and rural dual economic structure,and establishes an econometric model.By state space Kalman filtering method,it analyzes dynamic influence of factors upon urban-rural dual economic intensity.According to empirical conclusion,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for promoting integrated urban and rural economic development of Chongqing.

Gap between Urban and Rural Economic Development in Less Developed Areas——A Case of Northern Jiangsu Area,China

Taking northern Jiangsu area as an example,economic disparity between urban and rural areas is described according to the data in 2000-2009 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook.Result shows that there are significant differences in the rural and urban economic development in less developed areas,which are mainly reflected in the differences in per capita income,living standard,and Engel coefficient.Reasons for urban and rural economic disparity in less developed areas are analyzed.The asymmetry and immobility of rural and urban resources have objectively caused the income gap between urban and rural residents;urban industrial development,which is faster than agricultural development,has widened the income gap between urban and rural residents;and the differences in comparative labor productivity in rural and urban areas have enlarged their income gap.Countermeasures to minimize the urban and rural economic development gap are put forward,such as deepening the reform,realizing the free flow of economic resources between urban and rural areas,developing rural areas through urban development,exerting the function of urban areas in the coordinated development of urban and rural areas,paying attention to the agriculture and rural areas,and improving the comparative labor productivity of agriculture.

Development Path of Urban-rural Integration

The urban and rural areas are regarded as two major components of the regional economic system. Only through joint balanced development of the two can we achieve overall economic optimization and social welfare maximization. But the great social division of labor has separated urban areas from rural areas,which casts the shadow of city-oriented theory on cooperative relations between urban and rural areas. Mutual separation between urban and rural settlements and independent development trigger off a range of social problems. We must undertake guidance through rational development path of urban-rural integration,to eliminate the phenomenon of urban-rural dual structure,and promote the sustainable development of population,resources and environment in urban and rural areas as soon as possible.

中国乡村振兴政策:逻辑需求与供给特征——基于2013-2023年涉“三农”政策文本的量化分析

全面振兴乡村的根本在于系统地破除工农和城乡二元结构。基于此,构建了“现代农业产业体系-现代农业生产体系-现代农业经营体系-城乡统筹发展-新型城镇化建设-乡村振兴体制机制完善”的六维乡村振兴政策内容考察框架,并以2013年以来中央层面发布的658份涉“三农”政策文本为研究对象,运用ROST软件进行文本量化,对2018年以来涉“三农”政策(乡村振兴政策)的供给特征进行总结。研究发现:①乡村振兴政策结构的调整与破解工农和城乡二元结构的理论需求相符;②乡村振兴政策内容广泛而全面;③乡村振兴政策目标阶段性特征明显,并已初具现代化的特征;④乡村振兴政策越来越重视监督反馈机制的建立。最后,给出了乡村振兴政策展望。

Evolution Rules of Urban-rural Development and Inspiration for China's Agriculture

Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient,this article designs the agriculture relative development index(ARDI) as indicators measuring the intensity of urban-rural dual structure which is comparable among the countries of the world.This article calculates ARDI of 40 countries from 1980 to 2004.The result shows that ARDI in the developed countries and most of the middle-income countries are rising and yet there are declines in most of the low-income countries.The result also showed that most countries' ARDI will see a decline at the earlier stage of industrialization,so their dual economic structure will also aggravate and urban-rural gap will widen.With the economic development,the tendency will change and ARDI presents a U-shape change overall.The turning point is when a country becomes a middle-income one.

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between the Fixed Assets Investment and Urban-rural Income Gap during the Transition Period

As the gap in income between urban and rural residents bigger and bigger,based on the data from 1978 to 2007,this paper makes an empirical study of the dynamic relation between the fixed assets investment and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. The outcome from the study indicates a long-term balance exists between the investment rate of the fixed assets and the difference in income between urban and rural residents. A short-term deviation from the balance can be adjusted through long time. To a certain extent,city-oriented fixed assets investment policy is the main cause of the big gap in income between urban and rural residents. The big gap in income between urban and rural residents in turn reinforces their social status,thus further strengthening the city-oriented instead of countryside-oriented fixed assets investment policy. Based on that,this paper puts forward some suggestions on adjusting the fixed assets investment policy so as to shorten the difference in income between urban and rural residents and realize the goal of harmonious development between city and countryside.

乡村收缩的内涵界定与测度研究

乡村收缩是我国城乡结构转化进程中呈现的新现象。文章首先从概念层面阐释了乡村收缩的内涵,梳理了我国乡村收缩需要重点把握的逻辑线索,进而通过文献调查和实地调研,以甘肃省为例从县域尺度对乡村收缩程度进行测度,从乡村人口、经济和社会三个维度揭示其形成机理。研究发现:(1)乡村收缩在不同语境其内涵可能存在差异,但其本质均是青壮年劳动力的过度流失;(2)2000年、2010年、2020年甘肃省乡村收缩指数均值呈现动态大幅度上升趋势,分别为26.11%、38.97%、49.98%,且上升趋势具有比较显著的空间差异性;(3)城乡二元结构下,资源禀赋和地理区位、经济发展与要素流动、历史基础与社会文化、政策安排与治理能力都对乡村收缩有影响。新时代我国应从振兴县域经济出发,依靠产业聚集、人才引进、资金筹措、城乡融合的政策组合来回应乡村收缩现象。

农村劳动力流动、经济增长对城乡二元结构的影响——基于动态面板与门槛效应模型的实证分析

城乡一体化发展是破解新时代社会主要矛盾的关键抓手。近年来,我国经济不断发展,农村劳动力流动规模不断扩大。但城乡二元结构并没有随着经济增长和劳动力流动而同步转化,存在着严重的滞后性。城乡二元结构成为掣肘经济持续发展的重要因素。文章基于2006—2020年我国31省份面板数据,运用系统动态面板模型(SYS-GMM)分析劳动力流动与经济增长对城乡二元结构的影响;运用门槛效应模型,以劳动力流动为门槛变量,分析经济增长对城乡二元结构的非线性影响。结果表明,劳动力流动促进城乡二元结构转化,而经济增长抑制城乡二元结构转化;经济增长对城乡二元结构的作用受到劳动力流动的影响,表现出门槛效应:当劳动力流动规模超过一定限度后,经济增长对城乡二元结构转化的抑制作用将得到缓解。

海南省城乡冷链物流一体化发展现状与对策研究

大力推动城乡冷链物流一体化,是巩固和增强农村经济发展的重要手段之一,有利于打破城乡二元格局。本文以海南城乡冷链物流为研究对象,分析城乡冷链物流一体化必要性,通过实地调研海南省城乡冷链物流发展现状,发现存在冷链供应链尚未建立、城乡冷链资源分布不均、专业冷链物流人才匮乏、农村冷链信息化水平低、“最先一公里”冷链认知不足等问题,并针对存在的问题提出了相应对策,以期促进海南省城乡冷链物流一体化健康发展。

从城乡二元到城乡融合发展——中国式现代化进程中的城乡关系发展

城乡实现融合发展的关键在于消除制度性、历史性因素所造成的区域、城乡资源配置被边缘化的问题,从而推进国民经济结构的转型升级,继而实现现代化。回顾我国发展进程发现:中国城乡关系是从分离、对立到融合,从非均衡向均衡发展转变的过程,此过程把握了中国式现代化道路的生成逻辑,实现了城乡融合发展的新境界,开辟了马克思主义现代化理论的新道路。现阶段,我国乡村振兴与新型城镇化融合发展仍存在体制机制不健全,城乡基本公共服务体系包容性较差,乡村基础设施建设分布不均衡,城乡空间结构关系不协调等问题。文章认为需要从物质、文化、制度等层面进行战略统筹,树立科学的城乡融合理念,不断完善乡村治理体制;发挥有效市场和有为政府的合力,推进城乡要素市场一体化;以数字科技赋能城乡产业,孕育更多有利于城乡融合发展的新型产业。

数字经济对城乡融合发展的影响研究——基于劳动力错配视角

城乡融合发展是应对城乡发展不平衡难题的关键所在,迫切需要引入当前经济体系中最活跃的数字经济来打破城乡融合发展中的困境。基于2011—2021年省级面板数据,建立熵值法指标体系,构建面板回归、门槛效应等模型,研究数字经济、城乡劳动力错配与城乡融合发展之间的关系。结果表明:数字经济能显著促进城乡融合发展;数字经济通过改善我国城乡劳动力错配现状,对城乡融合发展产生促进作用;而劳动力错配会带来效率损失,因此在数字经济促进城乡融合发展的过程中表现出遮掩效应。数字经济对城乡融合发展的作用程度受城乡劳动力错配门槛效应影响,当城乡劳动力错配程度较高时,数字经济的促进效应会被大幅抑制,造成资源浪费且不利于城乡融合发展。基于此,提出优化布局数字新基建,利用数字赋能调节城乡要素配置,完善要素市场体系,深化城乡分割体制改革,建设全国统一大市场等建议。

数字经济对经济韧性的影响——基于城乡协调发展视角

提高经济韧性是稳住宏观经济大盘的关键之举。基于2011—2021年省级面板数据,从城乡协调发展这一全新视角解释数字经济和经济韧性之间的关系。研究结果表明数字经济能够显著提升区域经济韧性。借助函数分析法计算的经济韧性通过稳健性检验。为解决模型中内生性问题,以Bartik作为工具变量进行2SLS回归,结果依然稳健。区域异质性结果显示中部地区数字经济对经济韧性的正向影响明显优于西部和东部地区。作用渠道包括:数字经济促进城镇和农村的消费结构优化进而提高经济韧性;数字经济促进城镇和农村居民的收入水平提高进而增强经济韧性。因此,从城乡协调发展视角出发,数字经济可以优化城乡消费结构,提升城乡收入水平,促进城乡收入协调增长,实现经济韧性水平的提升。

丝绸之路经济带核心区城乡融合发展的影响因素研究

作为“一带一路”建设的核心区、枢纽地带,新疆在推动城乡融合与对外开放方面有着至关重要的意义,同时对于促进当地经济社会发展具有深远影响。城乡融合是新时代下中国发展的重要战略方向,旨在实现城乡资源要素的共享和优势互补,城乡产业结构也逐渐向现代化、国际化的方向发展,实现城乡产业的互通和融合。本文测度并对地区层面面板实证检验城乡融合结果显示,目前新疆城乡融合水平较低但正稳步提升,地区差异较大且趋于缩小。对外开放稳健促进新疆城乡融合协调发展。

FDI对中国“包容性增长”影响的实证分析——基于我国24个省份1991-2010年的面板数据

文章首先对"包容性增长"的内涵进行了简要界定,基于凯恩斯经济增长等相关理论分别构建了FDI与经济增长、产业结构变动以及城乡收入差距的理论模型,并基于1991-2010年全国24个省的横截面数据,进行了相应的实证分析检验,最后得出三个结论:一是FDI促进了我国经济增长,且具有长期效应,同时,FDI可通过影响其他经济变量进而促进我国经济增长;二是FDI对我国产业结构变动有"先增后减"的显著影响,并对我国产业结构调整具有一定的长远性和连续性影响;三是FDI对我国城乡收入差距存在正反相悖的显著影响,即在抑制城乡收入差距的同时,亦有拉大收入差距的可能,但最终合力的大小无法判断。

长江经济带产业结构优化与城乡收入差距--基于空间杜宾模型

产业结构优化对调整收入分配具有重要作用,而这两项也是长江经济带建设的重要任务。鉴于此,利用2000-2019年长江经济带9省2市的面板数据,借助于空间杜宾模型,从产业结构合理化与高级化两个方面对城乡收入差距的影响进行实证研究。研究结果表明:长江经济带产业结构优化和城乡收入差距均存在空间集聚特征;产业结构高级化对城乡收入差距具有扩大作用,而产业结构合理化却能缩小城乡收入差距;同时,由于空间溢出效应的存在,本区域与邻近区域的产业结构高级化作用相互抵消导致扩大效应较小,而本区域和邻近区域的产业结构合理化的正向作用相互叠加更能显著缩小城乡收入差距。

农村社会结构变迁四十年:1978-2018

改革开放四十年来,中国农村社会结构发生了巨大变化。总体来讲,在东部沿海发达地区农村,村庄熟人社会产生了一个强有力的富人群体,这个富人群体使村庄社会结构形成了极化效应。在中西部地区农村,社会结构则保持了相对均质,一方面,中西部地区农民进城,留下的农村获利机会形成了一个数量不大、但结构位置却极为重要的"中坚农民"群体;另一方面,农村家庭负担不重且相对年轻的老年人群体正在成为乡村建设的重要力量。因此,"中坚农民"和"负担不重的人"是理解当前中西部农村治理秩序的关键。同时,中西部农村开放性的结构既为农户逃离结构性力量提供了机会,但也使村庄由于社会结构均质化程度高而可能面临过度竞争,这种过度竞争的后果往往表现为严重的子辈对父辈的代际剥削。此外,限制城市资本下乡的政策,可以让进城失败的农民落叶归根,从而使农村成为中国现代化的稳定器与蓄水池。