Regional Structure and Spatial Morphology Characteristics of Oasis Urban Agglomeration in Arid Area——A Case of Urban Agglomeration in Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains,Northwest China

It is great important to the health development of urban agglomeration to correctly understand the formation and development law of regional structure of urban agglomeration.Employing the analysis methods like fractal theory and quantitative statistics,coupling with the use of remote sensing images and other spatial data,this article discusses the urban agglomeration of oasis on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in an arid area,and conducts the researches on its city scale,spatial distribution and individual form from 1990 to 2005.The result shows that it has loose hierarchical scale structure and polarization trend of population distribution while its hierarchical scale structure tends to mature.Under the influence of natural conditions,the spatial layout of urban agglomeration of oasis has macro characteristics that suggest cities distributed along oasis edges(dense or sparse),spatially expand along rivers,and cluster around traffic branches.The connectivity among the cities is high and shows an internal organization form of a banding distribution.The whole spatial shape of the internal structure of cities presents a "dumbbell" form,with mononuclear phenomenon receding and multi-nuclear appearing gradually.Individual cities spatially expand along rivers,portraying a long strip appearance.It indicates that the urban agglomeration of oasis shows regular and close structure but with a tendency to be complicated form and the loose structure.In the development of urban agglomeration,the authors recommend that the development of the city with good economic development conditions should be strengthened,and more attention be put into regional planning.

Response of ecosystem service value to land use/cover change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is becoming more and more frequent and extensive as a result of human activities,and is expected to have a major impact on human welfare by altering ecosystem service value(ESV).In this study,we utilized remote sensing images and statistical data to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use/cover types and ESV in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China from 1975 to 2018.During the study period,LUCC in the study region varied significantly.Except grassland and unused land,all the other land use/cover types(cultivated land,forestland,waterbody,and construction land)increased in areas.From 1975 to 2018,the spatial-temporal variations in ESV were also pronounced.The total ESV decreased by 4.00×10^(8) CNY,which was primarily due to the reductions in the areas of grassland and unused land.Waterbody had a much higher ESV than the other land use/cover types.Ultimately,understanding the impact of LUCC on ESV and the interactions among ESV of different land use/cover types will help improve existing land use policies and provide scientific basis for developing new conservation strategies for ecologically fragile areas.

Sensitivity of mountain runoff to climate change for Urumqi and Kaidu rivers originating from the Tianshan Mountains

The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoffwere analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis, Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Ummqi River and Kaidu River Basins Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Ummqi River Basin.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the expansion of an urban agglomeration and its effect on the eco-environment: Case study on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Urban agglomerations, which are highly integrated urban groups, form during the advanced stages of industrialization and urban development. The urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is one of the 19 urban agglomerations promoted by China’s 13th Five-Year Plan and a key area of urbanization in Xinjiang. Based on remote sensing data, we analyzed the expansion of construction land in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and its effect on ecological value in 1980–2015. The results show that the expansion of construction land significantly affected ecological value in the study area over the past 35 years. Among land use types, grassland was the dominant contributor to changes in ecological value;its contribution rate reached 66.27% with an interannual variation of only 5%. The contribution rate of urban and rural residential land along with industrial and mining lands was very low(0.82%), while the interannual variation was large(86%). The area of construction land in the urban agglomeration expanded from 1,067 to 2,586 km^2, and the conversions of different land use types had different effects on ecological value. Among land use types, the conversions of lowcoverage grassland and dry land made the largest contributions to changes in ecological value. During the study period, a total of 1,685 km^2 of ecological land, 69.91% of which belonged to cultivated land and grassland, was converted into construction land.A total area of 1,082 km^2 of dry land and low-coverage grassland was converted into construction land, accounting for 64.21% of the total ecological land that was converted into construction land. In 2000–2015, the area of urban construction land increased significantly along with the proportion of unused land, including gobi(172 km^2), bare land(65 km^2), and salt-affected land(65 km^2), being converted into construction land. In contrast, the area of construction land that was converted into ecological land was less than 166 km^2. The areas with the largest expansions of construction land were concentrated in Urumqi, Karamay,and Changji, where the areas of construction land increased by 399, 186, and 126 km^2, respectively. The areas with the most rapid expansions in construction land were concentrated in Kuytun, Toksun, and Usu. The environmental effects of construction land expansion and land use change were more positive in the late stage of urban agglomeration(2000–2015) compared to in the early stage(1980–2000). Kuytun City, Shihezi City, and Wujiaqu City showed large changes in ecological value caused by the expansion of construction land, whereas the changes in ecological value in the 14 other cities were relatively small, and the expansion of construction land slowed in 2000–2015 compared to in 1980–2000. In the future, further development of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains should fully consider the sensitivity and carrying capacity of the vulnerable ecological environment in this area. Population growth and industrial development in the urban agglomeration should be controlled based on the available water resources and ecological capacity to reduce the pressure on the environment and ensure sustainable development.

Ecological response to the climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

The Tianshan Mountains is a high and huge mountain body lying across the central part of Xinjiang, China, and is also the main area where the runoff forms in Xinjiang. In this paper, a set of RS-based study methods is put forward for deriving the information about the natural change of the ecology in arid areas, and the relationship between the climate change trend and the corresponding ecological response on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is analyzed from the scales of the land cover ecosystems and landscapes based on the observed data of climate, hydrology, modern glaciers and lakes on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years and the satellite RS data since recent 10 years by using the RS and GIS technologies. The results are as follows: (1) The overall trend of climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is that both air temperature and precipitation are increased, especially the increase amplitudes of air tempera-ture, precipitation and annual runoff volume are high since the decade of the 1990s; (2) the in-tegrated indexes of the vegetation in all the geographical divisions on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are obviously increased since recent 10 years, especially in the artificial oases and the foothill belts, such a change trend is advantageous for improving the vegetation ecology; and (3) the vegetation ecology in the arid areas is extremely sensitive to the climate change, the vegetation coverage and the biomass on the northern slope of the Tianshan Moun-tains are continuously increased because of the climate change since recent 10 years, their in-crease amplitudes in the plains and during the late stage are obviously higher than that in the mountainous regions and during the early stage.

348-YEAR PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RINGS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE MIDDLE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant,and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74,with significance level of 0.0001. Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou,precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains,its explained variance is 62%.According to much verification from independent precipitation data,historical climate records,glacier and other data.it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable.Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671(?)—1692,1716—1794 and 1825—1866 and three dry periods during 1693 —1715,1795—1824 and 1867—1969.Two wet periods,during 1716—1794 and 1825—1866, correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation,which is in front of No.1 glacier in Urumqi River source.According to computation,corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59mm and 30mm more than now.The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969.and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains.

Spatio-temporal correlation between human activity intensity and land surface temperature on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains

Research on the spatio-temporal correlation between the intensity of human activities and the temperature of earth surfaces is of great significance in many aspects,including fully understanding the causes and mechanisms of climate change,actively adapting to climate change,pursuing rational development,and protecting the ecological environment.Taking the north slope of Tianshan Mountains,located in the arid area of northwestern China and extremely sensitive to climate change,as the research area,this study retrieves the surface temperature of the mountain based on MODIS data,while characterizing the intensity of human activities thereby data on the night light,population distribution and land use.The evolution characteristics of human activity intensity and surface temperature in the study area from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed,and the spatio-temporal correlation between them was further explored.It is found that:(1)The average human activity intensity(0.11)in the research area has kept relatively low since this century,and the overall trend has been slowly rising in a stepwise manner(0.0024·a-1);in addition,the increase in human activity intensity has lagged behind that in construction land and population by 1-2 years.(2)The annual average surface temperature in the area is 7.18℃with a pronounced growth.The rate of change(0.02℃·a-1)is about 2.33 times that of the world.The striking boost in spring(0.068℃·a-1)contributes the most to the overall warming trend.Spatially,the surface temperature is low in the south and high in the north,due to the prominent influence of the underlying surface characteristics,such as elevation and vegetation coverage.(3)The intensity of human activity and the surface temperature are remarkably positively correlated in the human activity areas there,showing a strong distribution in the east section and a weak one in the west section.The expression of its spatial differentiation and correlation is comprehensively affected by such factors as scopes of human activities,manifestations,and land-use changes.Vegetation-related human interventions,such as agriculture and forestry planting,urban greening,and afforestation,can effectively reduce the surface warming caused by human activities.This study not only puts forward new ideas to finely portray the intensity of human activities but also offers a scientific reference for regional human-land coordination and overall development.

新疆中天山北坡断裂带不同海拔高度土壤温度分布特征

研究中天山断裂带从高山带到准噶尔盆地边缘整个过渡带的土壤温度分布特征有助于理解干旱区土壤环境特征,从而为土地利用、农业生产提供依据。本文选取新疆中天山断裂带海拔高度呈梯度分布的6个气象站2005年至2020年各层土壤温度的日观测数据,利用统计方法分析了不同地形、不同深度土壤温度随海拔高度的变化特征以及不同海拔高度土壤温度随深度的变化特征。分析表明:中天山北坡土壤温度变幅随海拔高度的降低而升高。不同地形的土壤最高温和最低温的年温差浅层大于深层,由浅至深年最高温度和年最低温度出现的时间逐渐推迟;年内中天山北坡不同海拔高度0~20 cm的土壤日平均温度曲线大致呈余弦函数曲线,320 cm深度的土壤温度基本呈正弦函数分布,较0~20 cm地温的最高和最低晚3个月左右。研究区土壤温度随海拔高度降低呈现先升高后降低的趋势。在海拔为3539~600 m高度范围,土壤温度随着海拔的升高而降低。在600~441 m高度范围,土壤温度随着海拔的下降而下降;0~20 cm为土壤温度变化的活跃层,40 cm深度的土壤温度可称之为过渡层,320 cm深度称为土壤温度的稳定层,80~160 cm称为土壤温度的次稳定层。

天山北坡西部雪岭云杉海拔梯度生态弹性变化

基于天山北坡西部温泉哈夏林区间隔100 m海拔高度采集的雪岭云杉梯度样本的断面积生长量资料,分析树木生态弹性变化。干旱事件是区域生态弹性最主要的干扰因子,高温事件也是干扰因子之一。干扰因子的强度会造成生态弹性梯度特征的变化。在极端干旱年份,哈夏林区梯度生态弹性特征最显著,即中高海拔为强抵抗力和弱恢复力,而低海拔则呈相反态势,并出现生长衰退现象。中旱事件时不同海拔均为强抵抗力和较强的恢复力,高温年份低海拔呈现弱抵抗力和弱恢复力。在发生持续干旱时,不同海拔高度的树木生长均受到遏制,但低海拔衰退强度大于高海拔区域,高海拔区域树木对干旱的适应能力要强于中低海拔。

天山北坡经济带城乡聚落格局变化与影响因素分析

以天山北坡经济带城乡聚落为研究对象,采用景观格局指数、地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析、位序-规模法等分析1980-2020年间城乡聚落格局的变化,结合地理探测器从自然、区位及社会经济因素探究城乡聚落格局的影响因素。结果表明:1980-2020年间,城乡聚落数量、规模持续扩张且趋于集聚,前20 a扩张以耕地、草地为主,后20 a以未利用地为主;城乡聚落密度变化显著,高密度区主要集中在各绿洲呈现“多核集中分布”特征,中密度区沿高密度区周围扩张,低密度区沿绿洲边缘分布并在非绿洲区有扩张;首位聚落规模发展较好,趋于位序-规模曲线,中型聚落略微发育,小型聚落数量持续减少;交通等区位因素是天山北坡城乡聚落格局的首位影响因素,社会经济因素次之,自然地理因素影响较小,各影响因素差异显著。

近30年天山北坡改进型遥感生态指数时空变化及其驱动因素

天山北坡是西北地区重要的生态功能区和重要经济带,受气候变化和人类活动的影响,脆弱的生态环境面临着巨大挑战,但目前对该地区生态环境质量时空变化、特征及驱动力的认识较少。为此,本文利用改进型遥感生态指数(ERSEI)、空间自相关分析、多元线性回归分析和地理加权分析方法揭示天山北坡1990、2000、2010和2020年4个时期生态环境质量时空变化、特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年天山北坡ERSEI先大幅下降后逐渐恢复并持续上升,生态环境质量逐渐改善并趋于稳定,总体呈“东优西劣”的空间格局;(2)天山北坡生态环境对气候变化较为敏感,温度是ERSEI变化的最重要驱动因子;(3)不同驱动因素对ERSEI的影响存在显著的空间异质性,自然因素对局部ERSEI空间分异起主导作用,人为因素则对年际ERSEI变化产生重要影响。这表明气候变化和人类活动显著影响ERSEI变化,未来应科学规划各类经济活动,减缓气候变化效应,提升天山北坡生态安全和环境可持续性。

天山北坡城市群国土空间格局识别与时空变化分析

气候变化和人类活动大环境下,探索国土空间格局演化特征及其规律对进一步缓和绿洲地区人地矛盾有着重要的意义。以天山北坡城市群为例,选取2000、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据及DEM数据,基于“三生”空间理论对天山北坡城市群国土空间结构数量与空间分布进行分析。结果表明:(1)20 a间天山北坡城市群“三生”空间类型面积呈不同程度的增减,其中水域和林地生态空间的转出量最多,牧草和其他生态空间两者间相互的转换数量最大;(2)研究区除阜康市、木垒哈萨克自治县、奇台县、石河子市及乌鲁木齐市的国土空间利用程度综合指数呈小幅度增加和递减外,其他县域呈逐年提高趋势;(3)生产空间的核密度高值区呈东南-西北条带状,连片分布于研究区的中部,而生态空间的核密度高值区则分布于研究区外围;生活空间的核密度高值区以乌鲁木齐市为中心呈点状分布,周围衍生出许多零碎的中值点,总体分布较为破碎,空间连接性较低。

天山北坡城市群人居环境适宜性评价

基于人居环境自然和人文综合要素,构建了人居环境综合适宜性指数(HSCI),以天山北坡城市群为研究区,分析其2022年的空间分异规律。结果表明:(1)天山北坡城市群自然环境的空间适宜性受地形起伏度和温湿指数影响显著,整体为一般适宜区集中连片分布、高度适宜区零星分布在天山北坡山麓地带的绿洲。其中胡杨河市和乌鲁木齐县的自然环境适宜性最好;(2)人文环境的空间适宜性受夜间灯光指数和基础服务指数的影响较大,整体形成以乌鲁木齐市和石河子市为中心的“双核”空间特征,并有向周围递减的趋势;(3)天山北坡城市群人居环境综合适宜性指数最好的地方人口分布最多,充分体现了乌鲁木齐市作为区域极核的地位;(4)人居环境适宜性指数与天山北坡城市群的人口、经济和土地匹配程度不足。高质量和较高质量区土地面积仅占总量的2.62%,经济则占总量的54.69%,人口高达总量的59.06%。说明天山北坡城市群地区人口与经济在适宜性方面具有高度匹配性,但人居适宜性指数较高的土地存在过度集中和利用的情况。

天山北坡城市群高质量测度与障碍因子诊断研究

通过熵权TOPSIS方法,测度2020年天山北坡城市群高质量发展水平,并采用障碍因子模型和耦合协调模型,判定影响高质量发展的障碍因子和城市内部协调度。结果表明:高质量综合得分排名为乌鲁木齐市>克拉玛依市>石河子市>吐鲁番市>五家渠市>昌吉市>阜康市;影响乌鲁木齐市主要障碍因子是建成区绿化覆盖率、每万人图书馆数量、人均城市道路面积、建成区排水管道密度;其余城市的主要障碍因子是进出口贸易额、城市GDP、每万人专利授予量、参加基本养老保险的人数;乌鲁木齐市属于轻度失调,石河子市、克拉玛依市和昌吉市属于严重失调,吐鲁番市、五家渠市和阜康市属于极度失调。天山北坡城市群高质量发展水平与内部耦合协调水平低且呈非均衡的空间分布格局,未来应充分发挥各市的区位、资源和产业优势,着力补齐短板,注重全方位协调发展,提升发展质量。

基于资源约束的新疆天山北坡乡村建设发展模式探究

新疆地理环境特殊、生态脆弱、气候干旱、经济滞后、人文环境独特。该区域乡村的发展在自然资源的约束下面临更大的局限性和挑战性。基于上述背景,新疆乡村走出自己的发展路径、提高自然环境适应能力迫在眉睫。文章对天山北坡的区域资源进行梳理和归纳,根据区域现状调研和分析,将其分为农牧业资源、区位资源、人文生态资源,总结出3种大类资源下的7种乡村建设模式。为自然资源匮乏的乡村建设发展提供参考与借鉴。

基于InVEST模型的天山北坡城市群生境质量时空演化研究

生境质量与土地利用/土地覆被类型为生物多样性所提供栖息地的适宜性有密切关系。探究天山北坡城市群土地利用引发的生境质量变化特征,揭示区域生态系统脆弱性,可为生态服务功能改善及区域生态环境保护提供一定参考。基于2000—2020年天山北坡城市群土地利用数据,采用InVEST模型从时空维度进行生境质量测算,再采用莫兰指数对生境质量空间特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年天山北坡城市群生境质量指数值整体在0.8以上,虽然生境质量为差和较差等级区域面积占研究区总面积的比例较高,但整体向良好和优等级方向发展;(2)天山北坡城市群生境质量由优和良好等级转为差和较差等级区域面积占比为3.75%,而由较差向差等级持续恶化的区域面积占比高达10%;(3)天山北坡城市群生境质量高值区与低值区在空间上均存在较高的正相关特征,即生境质量在空间上呈现高-高集聚和低-低集聚的两极特征,且随着时间推移,这种趋势愈发明显。总体上,研究期间天山北坡城市群生境质量空间变化幅度不大,上升区域上升的主要原因是生态工程的实施改变了区域土地利用/覆被类型,使得生境适宜性增强,而下降区域下降的主要原因是建设用地扩张。因此,建议进一步加大研究区生态保护和生态恢复措施。

数字经济与实体经济耦合协调研究——基于天山北坡经济带的实证研究

数字经济与实体经济之间有着紧密的联系。通过对天山北坡经济带2016-2020年9个县市的面板数据进行统计分析,构建了数字经济和实体经济评价的基本框架,并通过耦合模型评价了二者的耦合协调程度。结果表明:2016-2020年,天山北坡经济带数字经济与实体经济发展耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,除奎屯市以外,其他各县市都达到了失调以上;乌鲁木齐市发展一直很稳定,并且耦合协调度在一直上升。但由于各个县市之间仍存在着较大差距,所以总体的耦合协调度水平还不够高。因此,需要积极促进居民消费,大力发展工业;继续加强薄弱部门的基础设施建设;推动中小企业数字化转型。通过这些措施促进区域经济社会协调发展。

地形因子对天山北坡天山云杉林土壤有机碳的影响

【目的】研究地形因子对天山北坡天山云杉林土壤有机碳的影响。【方法】在新疆农业大学实习林场选取不同海拔、不同坡度和不同坡向的样地采集土壤样品,测定土壤有机碳含量并计算其碳密度。【结果】不同海拔梯度下,天山云杉林土壤有机碳含量介于41.65~77.67 g/kg,土壤有机碳密度介于9.47~14.27 kg/m^(2),土壤有机碳含量及密度均随着海拔的升高呈减少的趋势。0~20 cm土层坡度小于15°时,土壤有机碳含量表现为最高(105.08 g/kg),而当坡度达到30°~35°时,土壤有机碳含量最低;不同坡向上土壤有机碳含量从高到低依次为阴坡>半阴坡>半阳坡>阳坡,其中0~20 cm土层阴坡上土壤有机碳含量显著高于阳坡(P<0.05),20~60 cm土层土壤有机碳含量在各坡向之间差异不显著。【结论】天山北坡天山云杉林在高海拔区域内整个剖面土壤有机碳含量分布较低海拔区域相对均匀。坡向对土壤有机碳的再分配作用在20~60cm土层土壤中难以发挥作用。

干旱区绿洲城市群地表温度时空变化及其影响因素——以天山北坡城市群为例

基于2005—2019年的MYD11A2时间序列LST遥感数据,首先采用均值标准差法对LST进行分级,分析了天山北坡城市群的LST空间分布格局;其次利用Sen′s斜率分析法、Mann-Kendal趋势检验法和Hurst指数揭示了天山北坡城市群LST在2005—2019年和未来的变化趋势;最后借助地理探测器模型并综合考虑地表覆盖、气候、社会经济和地形因素分析了多空间尺度下LST的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)天山北坡城市群的吐鲁番市是高温(HT)和极高温(EHT)的主要集聚地;白天和夜间的LST格局差异大,在绿洲区域表现为典型的“昼冷岛,夜热岛”特征。(2)LST在白天和夜间的变化率分别为0.04℃/a和0.03℃/a,白天的升温幅度强于夜间;在乌鲁木齐市、昌吉回族自治州、石河子市和五家渠市LST表现出显著的升高趋势,且在未来也具有相同的趋势。(3)在不同的空间尺度上,LST的主要影响因素不同;从整个天山北坡城市群来看气候因素和地形因素是LST的主要影响因素,而在在石河子市、五家渠市和奎屯市LST的主要影响因素是社会经济因素。

天山北坡城市群生态承载力演变与生态敏感性分析

经济的快速发展及人类活动的不断加剧,造成了各种生态环境问题,对可持续发展构成了严重威胁。探讨城市群土地利用变化、生态承载力演变特征及生态敏感性分析,是推动城市群生态环境优化,提升城市群土地利用管理方式的重要理论依据。以天山北坡城市群为研究区,基于土地利用数据对天山北坡城市群2000—2020年土地利用变化进行分析,采用生态足迹模型对研究区的生态足迹及生态承载力进行推算,并结合植被覆盖度、坡度、人口密度、土地利用类型、高程5个生态敏感性因子,对天山北坡城市群进行多因子综合生态敏感性评价。结果表明:2000—2020年天山北坡城市群内建设用地和耕地转入量较大,分别增长107.79%和46.45%,林地和水域面积逐步减少,反映了天山北坡城市群在研究期内处于快速城镇化阶段,城市建成区的不断扩大对部分生态生产用地构成一定的威胁。在快速城镇化的背景下,天山北坡城市群人均生态足迹总体呈现上升的趋势,生物资源生态赤字问题仍然存在,能源为主的其他资源的生态盈余呈现缩小趋势。生态敏感性高值区域主要分布在天山北坡城市群各城市的周边地区,中度敏感地区环绕在敏感高值区周围,分别占研究区面积的11.21%和35.18%。在未来发展中天山北坡城市群需要进行区域生态敏感性的评价,针对不同的生态敏感性分区提出不同的保护和利用策略,同时需要发挥区域内各个城市的生产优势,扬长避短,实现天山北坡城市群土地资源合理利用及生态与社会及经济的高质量发展。