Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin,China

The Yellow River Basin of China is a key region that contains myriad interactions between human activities and natural environment.Industrialization and urbanization promote social-economic development,but they also have generated a series of environmental and ecological issues in this basin.Previous researches have evaluated urban resilience at the national,regional,urban agglomeration,city,and prefecture levels,but not at the watershed level.To address this research gap and elevate the Yellow River Basin’s urban resilience level,we constructed an urban resilience evaluation index system from five dimensions:industrial resilience,social resilience,environmental resilience,technological resilience,and organizational resilience.The entropy weight method was used to comprehensively evaluate urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin.The exploratory spatial data analysis method was employed to study the spatiotemporal differences in urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin in 2010,2015,and 2020.Furthermore,the grey correlation analysis method was utilized to explore the influencing factors of these differences.The results of this study are as follows:(1)the overall level of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin was relatively low but showed an increasing trend during 2010–2015,and significant spatial distribution differences were observed,with a higher resilience level in the eastern region and a low-medium resilience level in the western region;(2)the differences in urban resilience were noticeable,with industrial resilience and social resilience being relatively highly developed,whereas organizational resilience and environmental resilience were relatively weak;and(3)the correlation ranking of resilience influencing factors was as follows:science and technology level>administrative power>openness>market forces.This research can provide a basis for improving the resilience level of cities in the Yellow River Basin and contribute to the high-quality development of the region.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Spatio-temporal evolution and factor explanatory power analysis of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Urban resilience assesses a city’s ability to withstand unknown risks.Scholars are not comprehensive in assessing urban resilience,and they lack consideration of population resilience.This study investigated 110 prefecturelevel cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)as study areas.We calculated the YREB’s level of urban resilience based on the aspects of“economy-society-population-ecology-infrastructure”,which ensured that the comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience is complete and sufficient.The spatio-temporal evolution of urban resilience was analyzed using exploratory spatial data.Geodetectors were used to investigate the impact of several indicators,focusing on economic,social,population,ecological,and infrastructure factors,on urban resilience.The results showed that the urban resilience of the YREB has maintained a slow upward trend from 2005 to 2018,and the average urban resilience of the YREB has risen from 0.2442 to 0.2560.The resilience gap between cities in the study region increased initially and then decreased.The dominant factor in the spatial differentiation of urban resilience was the economic factors,followed by the population factors.Urban resilience has been clarified and an evaluation index system is constructed,which can provide an effective reference for the evaluation of urban resilience among countries around the world.Based on this,factors that optimize urban resilience are configured,and the regional and national sustainable development can be promoted.

Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Urbanization and Ecological Environment in the Efficient Ecological Economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta

Based on the statistical data of urbanization development level and ecological environment in the Yellow River Delta during 2009-2014,a comprehensive index system for the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment was established to evaluate the coordinated development level. The results showed that the coordinated development level of urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Delta was generally high during 2009-2014. The development level of urbanization was higher than that of ecological environment on the whole,that is,the development of ecological environment lagged behind. The development of urbanization in the region was relatively slow during 2009-2011 but rapid during 2012-2014. The development level of ecological environment was relatively stable and always increased.

Analysis on the green development of urban agglomeration in the Yellow River basin

After the ecological protection and high quality development of the Yellow River basin became the national strategy,the new idea of river basin development with urban agglomeration as the main body was clarified.Promoting high-quality development of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin is not only an important practice of the concept of harmonious coexistence between man and nature,but also conducive to exploring new paths of high-quality development that can be copied and popularized.In the process of promoting development,we should adhere to the principle of overall planning and differentiated development.On the basis of constantly improving cross-regional environmental administrative coordination,strengthening the radiation driving role of central cities,and establishing and improving the cross-regional ecological compensation mechanism,we should adopt different measures according to the requirements of ecological priority and green development,so as to form a new competitive advantage that is both unified and distinctive.

Exploring Regional Ecological Cultures in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River in the Ming and Qing Dynasties from the Perspective of "Top Eight Views"

By studying typical "Top Eight Views" in cities like Xining,Lanzhou and Yinchuan in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,mountain and water landscapes in the study area were analyzed in terms of natural ecology;bridges,canals,ferries,pavilions,mansions,towers,temples,historical sites,production and living landscapes were analyzed in terms of humanistic ecology.On this basis,"Top Eight Views" in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were compared and the following conclusions obtained:mountain landscapes were distributed in the whole region,waterscapes unevenly valued in different cities,bridges,canals and ferries mostly located in Ningxia,temples commonly found in all cities,garden arts introduced into cities,traditional cultures carried forward by historical relics.Then the relationship between "Top Eight Views" and regional eco-cultures was analyzed,and it was proposed that humanistic and cultural connotations of these "Top Eight Views" contributed a lot to beautifying urban environment,satisfying needs of the locals' spiritual life,carrying forward local history and culture,enriching urban cultural connotations,expanding living spaces of local residents and improving integrated functions of cities."Top Eight Views" culture complied with the construction gist of urban ecological cultures,and was of great referential value for the construction of urban ecological cultures in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,and also the healthy,scientific and sustainable development of local cities.

The Coupling of Landscape Pattern and Landscape Esthetics of Urban Traditional Cultural Tourism Destination: A Case Study of Confucius Temple-Qinhuai River Scenic Area in Nanjing City

Study on the relationship between landscape beauty and ecological beauty is an important scientifi c problem that refl ects the nature of man-land relation, and current academic researches on this topic are most based on a single perspective. Therefore, this paper took the Confucius Temple–Qinhuai River Scenic Area in Nanjing City as a typical case of urban traditional cultural tourism destination, adopted landscape pattern indexes and balanced incomplete block comparison and evaluation method as the evaluation standards of ecological beauty and landscape beauty, and analyzed the coupling characteristics and rules of landscape pattern and landscape aesthetics. The results showed that(a) The overall landscape of the study area had higher fragmentation degree, but different landscape groups were infl uenced by different human interventions, landscape patches showed moderate diversity and heterogeneity, patch area, spatial distribution and spatial aggregation degree showed structural differences.(b) The locals and visitors had aesthetic perception of the study area, but preferred the beautiful natural scenery of the Qinhuai River, as well as the historical buildings and cultural landscapes that contain rich memories of the city.(c) Landscape pattern and landscape aesthetics showed coupled complementation and harmonious coexistence. The Confucius Temple–Qinhuai River Scenic Area has profound historical and cultural background, but it has witnessed gradual loss of cultural characteristics and fast "delocalization" against the background of rapid urbanization. As an urban traditional cultural tourism destination, it carries the responsibility of protecting city memories and inheriting regional cultures.

基于GTWR模型的长江经济带城市群减污降碳及其影响因素分析

以长江经济带三大城市群71个城市为研究对象,使用耦合协调度模型测度2011—2020年三大城市群减污降碳协调度,使用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型探究各城市群减污降碳影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明,研究期内长江经济带三大城市群减污降碳协调度整体呈上升趋势,截至2020年,三大城市群减污降碳均达到协调状态,其协调度由高到低依次为成渝城市群、长江中游城市群、长三角城市群;影响因素回归结果显示,城镇化、科技创新和环境规制能够促进减污降碳协同,人口集聚、产业结构则会抑制减污降碳,而经济发展水平、对外开放在三大城市群间表现出明显的时空异质性。基于此,从经济发展、社会进步、科技创新以及政策规制层面提出差异化的减污降碳协同治理策略,助力各城市群乃至长江经济带减污降碳目标的实现。

Spatiotemporal patterns in urbanization efficiency within the Yangtze River Economic Belt between 2005 and 2014

The question of how to generate maximum socio-economic benefits while at the same time minimizing input from urban land resources lies at the core of regional ecological civilization construction. We apply stochastic frontier analysis （SFA） in this study to municipal input-output data for the period between 2005 and 2014 to evaluate the urbanization efficiency of 110 cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt （YREB） and then further assess the spatial association characteristics of these values. The results of this study initially reveal that the urbanization efficiency of the YREB increased from 0.34 to 0.53 between 2005 and 2014, a significant growth at a cumulative rate of 54.07%. Data show that the efficiency growth rate of cities within the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has been faster than that of their counterparts in the middle and lower reaches, and that there is also a great deal of ad- ditional potential for growth in urbanization efficiency across the whole area. Secondly, results show that urbanization efficiency conforms to a ＂bar-like＂ distribution across the whole area, gradually decreasing from the east to the west. This trend highlights great intra-provincial differences, but also striking inter-provincial variation within the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The total urbanization efficiency of cities within the lower reaches of the river has been the highest, followed successively by those within the middle and upper reaches. Finally, values for Moran＇s / within this area remained higher than zero over the study period and have increased annually; this result indicates a positive spatial correlation between the urbanization efficiency of cities and annual increments in agglomeration level. Our use of the local indicators of spatial association （LISA） statistic has enabled us to quantify characteristics of ＂small agglomeration and large dispersion＂. Thus, ＂high- high＂ （H-H） agglomeration areas can be seen to have spread outwards from around Zhejiang Province and the city of Shanghai, while areas characterized by ＂low-low＂ （L-L） patterns are mainly concentrated in the north of Anhui Province and in Sichuan Province. The framework and results of this research are of considerable significance to our understanding of both land use sustainability and balanced development.

黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展研究

为推进中国式现代化建设,统筹黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,提升城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展水平,以黄河流域内的7个城市群为研究对象,构建新型城镇化与生态安全评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和相对发展模型,并结合时空演化过程分析了黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展格局,最后通过系统动力学模型模拟未来5年耦合协调发展趋势.结果表明,研究期内,黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,部分城市群出现轻度波动,耦合协调特征由失调、濒临协调转化为勉强协调、初级协调;最后通过预测未来5年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展过程,推断城市群均处于显著提升状态,且逐步达到初级协调阶段.针对目前黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展存在的不足,提出了相应的对策建议.

长江经济带新型城镇化与产业结构耦合测度及时空演化

新型城镇化进程与产业结构优化相互影响,共同推动长江经济带区域经济高质量发展。研究基于长江经济带11省份2014—2019年面板数据,运用熵值法分别测算新型城镇化与产业结构的综合指数,并测度两者的耦合协调水平,探究新型城镇化与产业结构耦合协调度的时空演化规律。研究发现:(1)长江经济带各省新型城镇化与产业结构优化水平均呈现逐年递增态势,且存在“东高西低”的空间分布特征。(2)2014—2019年,新型城镇化与产业结构耦合协调度从0.5630上升到0.6987,由“勉强协调”发展为“初级协调”水平。(3)时间上,两者间耦合协调度逐年提升,具有非均衡性特征,2014—2017年提升较快,2017—2019年提升趋缓;空间上,呈现下游、中游、上游逐级递减且较为明显的区域块状集聚特征,区域间差距在缩小。

黄河流域新型城镇化—生态安全—公共健康协调发展研究——以内蒙古自治区为例

探究黄河流域新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康耦合机理,对于实现区域高质量发展、全面贯彻落实中国式现代化要求、维护国家生态安全和边疆安全具有重要意义。通过综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型分析位于黄河流域中上游的内蒙古自治区新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康耦合发展水平及影响因素。研究结果表明:2005-2021年内蒙古新型城镇化、生态安全、公共健康各子系统发展水平均有所提升,空间分异明显。新型城镇化水平由2005年的0.26提升到2021年的0.69,生态安全水平由2005年的0.26提高到2021年的0.57,公共健康水平在2021年达到0.64;新型城镇化、生态安全与公共健康耦合协调水平呈现波动增长态势,由2005年的0.22上升到2021年的0.62,表现为呼和浩特市、包头市耦合协调水平较高,其余盟市较低的空间格局;城乡居民基本医疗保险参保、人均GDP、城镇人均可支配收入等是制约系统协调发展的主要障碍因素,年均障碍度分别为17.32%、8.74%、7.33%。基于研究结果提出促进内蒙古新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康协调发展的对策建议,旨在为实现区域高质量发展和推进中国式现代化建设提供支持和指导。

城镇化对长江经济带农业碳排放的影响及其耦合关系研究

基于区域一体化视角,使用长江经济带2000—2020年面板数据,多维度构建城镇化和农业碳排放指标体系,结合层次分析法和熵值法进行指标赋权,采用偏最小二乘法与耦合协调度模型定量分析二者的影响机制和耦合关系。结果表明:(1)城镇化主导类型呈现人口城镇化→空间城镇化→生态环境城镇化→经济城镇化→社会城镇化发展趋势。(2)农业碳排放空间差异显著,等级演变明显,唯安徽省和上海市一直处于最高级和最低级。(3)人口、经济、社会、生态环境城镇化是影响农业碳排放的四个重要维度,人均国内生产总值、人均教育经费、万元GDP能耗等7项指标是极重要因素。(4)城镇化与农业碳排放耦合关系呈增长态势,耦合度从磨合转向高水平耦合,耦合协调度由勉强协调发展为良好协调,说明二者共振性良好,趋于协调发展。

数字经济与绿色全要素生产率:来自黄河流域“五极”城市群的证据

数字经济发展是推动黄河流域高质量发展的重要动力。论文基于2011—2019年黄河流域“五极”城市群的面板数据,在城市群视角下实证检验数字经济发展如何影响绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)。研究发现:黄河流域城市群数字经济能够显著提升绿色全要素生产率,且在空间维度具有正向溢出特征。克服潜在的内生性问题后,这一结论依然稳健;黄河流域数字经济发展对绿色全要素生产率的提升效应在不同的城市群维度、核心城市与非核心城市之间具有典型的异质性特征;机制分析表明,黄河流域城市群绿色全要素生产率提升主要源于数字经济所诱发的创新要素集聚。

黄河流域城市能源综合效率时空分异与影响因素研究

经济发展和环境保护的双重压力下,能源效率成为反映一国经济发展质量的关键指标,不断提升能源效率是必然的趋势。本文使用非参数的super-SBM模型、地理信息系统空间分析法、面板Tobit回归和地理加权回归(GWR)模型对黄河流域2007—2018年城市能源综合效率的时空格局和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①研究期内,城市能源综合效率基本保持平稳,但有下降趋势。效率分布的区域差异有所缩小,且呈现出明显的连片分布特征,具体来说上游城市多处于低效、中低效率区间,中下游城市多位于中低和中高效率区间;②影响因素的Tobit回归结果表明,经济发展水平和绿色创新对城市能源综合效率具有显著正向影响,碳排放水平、产业结构和环境规制对城市能源综合效率具有显著的负向影响,区域异质性回归结果也基本保持不变;③地理加权回归结果表明,各影响因素作用的空间异质性存在并且具有一定分布规律。研究结论为促进黄河流域城市能源综合效率提供思路。

地理探测器方法下长江经济带(江苏段)土地城镇化时空演变及驱动因子分析

定量分析土地城镇化时空演变驱动力可为城市可持续发展提供科学依据。本文将对地观测数据与人口、经济数据相结合,以长江经济带(江苏段)沿江8市为例,基于2000—2020年5期Landsat影像、夜间灯光影像、年末人口总数和GDP,采用GeDetector对其近20年间空间、人口及经济维度的演化及多尺度分化的进程进行探讨,分析土地城镇化时空演变规律及驱动因子。研究结果表明:(1)城镇化过程直接驱动地表类型的变化,且人口数量和GDP总量能够作为城镇化过程强度的定量指标;(2)夜间灯光(NTL)数据耦合人口或经济统计数据能够较好解释区域城镇化过程中的时空差异;(3)长江经济带(江苏段)沿江8市城镇化过程经历了由数量向质量的转变。研究结果为引导城镇建设用地合理配置提供科学依据,为城市可持续发展提供决策参考。

绿色技术创新、环境规制对黄河流域城市绿色发展的影响机理

推动城市绿色发展不仅是实现“双碳”目标的现实举措,更是实现经济高质量发展的必然选择。黄河流域具有显著的资源、生态和区位特殊性,需协同推进生态保护和经济高质量发展。为探究绿色技术创新在黄河流域城市绿色发展中的作用,该研究选取黄河流域2009—2021年76个地级及以上城市的面板数据为研究样本,基于超效率SBM模型测算城市绿色全要素生产率来反映城市绿色发展水平,从调节作用和门槛效应的视角研究环境规制的作用机理。研究结论显示:①绿色技术创新对黄河流域城市绿色发展有显著促进作用,经过系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立,且主要通过技术进步来提升城市绿色全要素生产率的增长。②基于环境治理成效的环境规制在绿色技术创新和城市绿色发展间的调节作用整体上不显著,但在上游和中游地区,环境规制的调节作用显著。③环境规制存在显著的双重门槛效应,在推动绿色技术创新影响城市绿色发展中存在一个合理的强度区间,强度过低或过高都会限制绿色技术创新对城市绿色发展的影响效果。④经异质性分析发现,不同区域绿色技术创新对城市绿色发展的影响仍然显著,影响程度的大小从上游地区到下游地区依次递减。基于此,该研究提出,要充分考虑黄河流域的地域特点,树立协同推进绿色创新与经济高质量发展的理念,完善绿色技术创新政策体系,进一步增强绿色技术创新在城市绿色发展中的作用;正确理解环境规制在推动城市绿色发展中的作用,科学合理设定环境规制强度,因地制宜实施环境规制政策,推动黄河流域城市绿色发展。

宁夏沿黄城市带土壤重金属分布特征及其生态风险评价

宁夏沿黄城市带是黄河中上游重要的产业聚集区,其土壤健康状况对黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行区建设具有重要意义。为摸清沿黄城市带土壤重金属现状及生态风险,该研究取样检测了该区域682个样点的土壤重金属元素含量,分析了其生态风险,并进行了溯源。研究结果表明:(1)宁夏沿黄城市带0~20 cm土壤砷(As)、铬(Cr)、铜(Cu)、锰(Mn)、铅(Pb)、锌(Zn)、镍(Ni)和镉(Cd)8种重金属元素平均值分别为(3.11±1.88)、(60.66±15.64)、(17.86±6.10)、(509.92±186.74)、(17.62±11.10)、(57.36±25.33)、(25.23±4.95)和(0.77±0.49) mg/kg。0~20 cm土层重金属元素平均含量均低于土壤背景值,也低于农用地土壤污染风险筛选值。0~5 cm土层重金属元素含量高于0~20 cm土层,且Cr、Mn、Zn和Cd 4种元素含量超过了土壤背景值。(2)沿黄城市带中As、Cr、Cu、Mn、Pb、Zn和Ni这7种元素对环境污染风险极低。大部分区域土壤Cd含量明显高于背景值,污染风险较高。(3)沿黄城市带重金属元素有5种来源,其中母质源对重金属来源贡献率最高,其次为农业和工业复合源、交通运输源,农业源和工业源对重金属元素贡献小。研究结果表明宁夏沿黄城市带土壤重金属有较高等级的Cd生态风险,值得关注。

逆全球化背景下区域协同创新网络抗毁性评价——以长江经济带城市群为例

从结构抗毁性和功能抗毁性两个维度构建区域协同创新网络抗毁性评价指标体系,进而提出改进的AHPCRITIC组合赋权法确定指标权重,并采用TOPSIS方法对长江经济带3个城市群协同创新网络的抗毁性水平进行综合评价。结果表明,长三角城市群的协同创新网络抗毁性水平最强,成渝城市群次之,中游城市群最低;随着时间推移,长三角城市群的抗毁性持续增强,成渝城市群呈现“V”型减弱趋势,中游城市群呈现“V”型增强趋势;从结构抗毁性看,长三角城市群持续增强,成渝城市群与中游城市群呈现“V”型增强趋势但增幅较小;从功能抗毁性看,长三角城市群与中游城市群均呈现“V”型增强趋势,而成渝城市群呈现“V”型减弱趋势。

黄河流域城市群新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康协调发展研究

为改善黄河流域生态环境、加强黄河治理保护、促进沿黄地区高质量发展,选取2002-2021年黄河流域7个城市群60个地级市(州)的面板数据,运用熵权法、综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型和BP神经网络模型分析探讨了黄河流域7个城市群的新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康协调发展状况及其时空演化特征与未来发展趋势。结果表明:①2002-2021年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化、生态安全和公共健康子系统发展水平均有所提升;②新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康系统耦合协调水平总体上呈现波动增长态势,在整体格局上,位于黄河流域中下游的山东半岛城市群和中原城市群系统发展水平较好,而其他城市群则较差;③预测2022-2026年黄河流域各城市群新型城镇化-生态安全-公共健康系统协调水平将整体显著提升。根据评估与预测结果,提出了相应的对策建议。