Promoting the coupling coordination development of port and its hinterland city environments is an important way to improve urban economic competitiveness.Based on relevant data of 13 coastal port cities in eastern Ch...Promoting the coupling coordination development of port and its hinterland city environments is an important way to improve urban economic competitiveness.Based on relevant data of 13 coastal port cities in eastern China from 2000 to 2018,this study explores the coupling coordination development of port and city environments and its impact on urban economic competitiveness by constructing the coupling coordination degree model and the panel threshold model.The research results show that:(1)In terms of the coupling coordination development of port and city environments,most coastal ports and their hinterland cities are in a state of moderate or serious disorder.Overall,the degree of coupling coordination of port and city environments needs to be further improved;(2)The coupling coordination degree of port and city environments has a significant impact on urban economic competitiveness,and this effect gradually increases with the development of the ports and the urban economy.Among the variables that impact the urban economic competitiveness,fixed assets investment and foreign trade are significant factors that can enhance urban economic competitiveness.(3)At present,there is a“U-shaped”relationship between the coupling coordination degree of port-city environments and the urban economic competitiveness.This relationship lies on the right side of the inflection point of the“U-shaped”curve.Therefore,following the concept of assigning priority to ecological development,expanding fixed assets investment and actively developing foreign trade can further enhance the urban economic competitiveness.展开更多
Urban agglomeration is made up of cities with different sizes to be linked by traffic network in a given area, and it is an inevitable result when urbanization reaches a certain level. Taking urban agglomeration in ce...Urban agglomeration is made up of cities with different sizes to be linked by traffic network in a given area, and it is an inevitable result when urbanization reaches a certain level. Taking urban agglomeration in central Jilin (UACJ) as an example, this article analyzes the formation mechanism and spatial pattern of urban agglomeration in the less-developed area. First, the dynamics of UACJ has been analyzed from the aspects of geographical condition, economic foundation, policy background, and traffic condition. Then the development process is divided into three stages-single city, city group and city cluster. Secondly, the central cities are identified from the aspects of city cen- trality, and the development axes are classified based on economic communication capacity. Finally, the urban agglo- meration is divided into five urban economic regions in order to establish the reasonable distribution of industries.展开更多
Economic clusters have been a central focus of current urban and regional research, policies and practices. However, a methodology to identify and analyze policy-relevant economic cluster dynamics is still not well de...Economic clusters have been a central focus of current urban and regional research, policies and practices. However, a methodology to identify and analyze policy-relevant economic cluster dynamics is still not well developed. Based on input-output(I-O) data of 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 of Beijing, this article presents an adapted principle component analysis for identifying the evolution of local economic cluster patterns. This research addresses the changes of economic interaction of industries with complementary and common activities over time. The identified clusters provide an insight into the reality of economic development in a diversifying urban economy: the increasing importance of services and the growing interaction between service and manufacturing industries. Our method therefore provides the analysts with a better understanding of the emergence, disappearance and development of economic clusters citywide. The results could be used to assist monitoring urban economic development and designing more practical urban economic strategies.展开更多
This paper aims at studying the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and its role. Based on the economic model of urban spatial structure and applying panel data in Shandong Province, the paper concludes. Economic gro...This paper aims at studying the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and its role. Based on the economic model of urban spatial structure and applying panel data in Shandong Province, the paper concludes. Economic growth and transition of economic structure have played the most powerful role in urban expansion. An increase in population helps the core to extend. Increasing agricultural productivity can provide a countervailing force. An increase in transportation costs will limit urban expan- sion. An increase in the marginal productivity of land in housing production will increase urban expansion. Fiscal and taxation policies also have encouraged the extensive shift of cultivated land into build-up area. This paper also suggests that if high rate increasing GDP is needed, the urban core will continue to expand. The government should take measures to improve the rapid growth of the city.展开更多
The per capita disposable income of urban households and the per capita net income of rural households in Yunnan Province are selected as the variable indices.Data are from the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook and the Yunn...The per capita disposable income of urban households and the per capita net income of rural households in Yunnan Province are selected as the variable indices.Data are from the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook and the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook.Theil index and RHL value are used to carry out quantitative research on the occurrence,development and change of urban and rural economic disparity in Yunnan Province,China.Regression analysis on the evolvement trend of urban and rural economic disparity and spatial analysis on the convergence and divergence of urban and rural disparity caused by economic growth in Yunnan Province are carried out.Result shows that cities in Yunnan Province show a downward convergence;while rural areas show a downward divergence in the years 1978-2007,causing the economic disparity between urban and rural areas.Therefore,urban and rural disparity increases in Yunnan Province and the development of rural areas lags far behind the development of urban areas.Urban and rural economic disparity in Yunnan Province shows an inverted "U" shape of Kuznets Curve.In order to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural economy,suggestions are put forward,such as adopting the unbalanced development strategy,accelerating the overall economic development,promoting the development of small and medium-sized cities,enhancing the integration of urban and rural economics,appropriately supporting rural areas under poverty,and fully exerting the comparative advantage.展开更多
The urbanization is the course that industries and economic activities concentrate, and the history of urban development can be divided into three periods: early urbanization, industrial urbanization and post-industr...The urbanization is the course that industries and economic activities concentrate, and the history of urban development can be divided into three periods: early urbanization, industrial urbanization and post-industrialized urbanization. Marketization is the foundation of the city, and the development of non-agricultural industry such as commerce, service trade and secondary industry has spurred the prosperity of the city enormously. China has led rfiarketing economy into the course of industrialization and urbanization gradually in more than 20 years, but the level of marketization is still relatively low. China should endeavor to strengthen the tertiary industry, improve its quality and level, in order to get the full outside-effect and diffusion effect of it.展开更多
Based on the study on the city transport systems of some typical cities worldwide,this paper put forward that each city transport system has its own development mode,which is influenced by the city development plan,ec...Based on the study on the city transport systems of some typical cities worldwide,this paper put forward that each city transport system has its own development mode,which is influenced by the city development plan,economic development level,traveling vehicle composition etc..When some problems occur,such as the congestions caused by contradiction between the road capacity and vehicle composition,the city transport system may come into temporary maturity period.If the improvement for road system is limited meanwhile,optimized structure of vehicle composition should be an effective solution in this case.With the development of economy-internationalization,the development speed of city transport modernization is rapid.When traveling easiness is conflicting with efficiency,the advantages of public transport system become more obvious.Correspondingly,the superiority of two-wheel vehicles will reappear.Though the important function of two-wheel vehicles for alleviating city traffic problems is obvious,however,their development strategy must be reasonably proposed,and operation regulations must be performed accordingly.展开更多
According to the essential features of urban economic strips, this paper is intended to point out that Chengdu-Chongqing strip has so far been an urban area in geographic or spatial sense, but not an urban economic st...According to the essential features of urban economic strips, this paper is intended to point out that Chengdu-Chongqing strip has so far been an urban area in geographic or spatial sense, but not an urban economic strip in economic sense.On further basis of analyzing several problems existing inthe development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic strip,some countermeasures are correspondingly put forward hereafter.展开更多
Given the differences between cities in the United States and China,and the changing structure of Chinese cities,this paper examines the viability of some basic predictions of the Muth-Mills model of urban spatial str...Given the differences between cities in the United States and China,and the changing structure of Chinese cities,this paper examines the viability of some basic predictions of the Muth-Mills model of urban spatial structure for modern cities in China,using data for the year 2010. Chinese cities are experiencing rapid motorization and road construction over the last two decades,so we have tried to use different measurements for commuting cost in these cities to estimate the empirical model,and concluded that most results support the Muth-Mills assertion. The elasticities of the urban spatial size with respect to the signifi cant variables are discussed,comparing to those for cities in the United States. The results we obtain from both theoretical and empirical analyses can further increase our understanding on the model as a tool for a policy analysis on cities in China.展开更多
The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ...The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quanti- tative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.展开更多
This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysi...This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR timespace compression as well as the city neighboring ejfects on economic growth.It is found that HSRs efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn:(i)China needs tofurther reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii)China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(Hi)China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.展开更多
The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60%of the world’s population and half of the global economy.Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic ...The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60%of the world’s population and half of the global economy.Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth,industrial structure and resource allocation.In this study,the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development,respectively.The population,urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020-2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs),and the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The population,urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways.The population will increase by 2%-8%/10a during 2020-2050 and reach 5.0-6.0 billion in 2050.Meanwhile,the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%-7.5%/10a and reach 49%-75%.The GDP will increase by 17%-34%/10a and reach 134-243 trillion USD.(2)Large differences will appear under different scenarios.The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels,but the population size is comparatively smaller;SSP3 shows the opposite trend.Meanwhile,the economy develops slowly under SSP4,but it has a relatively high urbanization level,while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3)In 2050,the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries,and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double.Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia,West Asia and Central Asia,and will increase by more than 150%in the fastest growing countries.The economy will grow fastest in South Asia,Southeast Asia and West Asia,and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.展开更多
This study analyzes cities in China at the prefecture level and above to calculate indices for“urban economic efficiency”(the relationship between input factors and output)and“urbanization economic efficiency”(the...This study analyzes cities in China at the prefecture level and above to calculate indices for“urban economic efficiency”(the relationship between input factors and output)and“urbanization economic efficiency”(the relationship between newly increased output and increased economic input),based on the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA)method.We compare and analyze the factors influencing change and their spatial distributions.The results show that capital and labor rather than urban land could effectively improve urban and urbanization economic efficiency.And,although the proportion of wages to GDP has a significant negative impact on urban economic efficiency,for social equity and stability,the proportion should be increased;if appropriate,it would not significantly reduce urbanization economic efficiency.Additionally,population density,population urbanization rate,and government fiscal expenditure significantly positively impact urban and urbanization economic efficiency.However,we also found that increases in the degree of industrial structure deviation and urban landscape fragmentation are harmful to urbanization economic efficiency.In terms of spatial distribution,the urbanization economic efficiency of most of China's northeastern and eastern coastal areas is significantly lower than that of other regions;at the same time,the urban economic efficiency of most of these cities has been decreasing,especially in the northeast,which warrants greater policy attention.展开更多
The use of multi-perspective and multi-scalar city networks has gradually developed into a range of critical approaches to understand spatial interactions and linkages. In particular, road linkages represent key chara...The use of multi-perspective and multi-scalar city networks has gradually developed into a range of critical approaches to understand spatial interactions and linkages. In particular, road linkages represent key characteristics of spatial dependence and distance decay, and are of great significance in depicting spatial relationships at the regional scale. Therefore, based on highway passenger flow data between prefecture-level administrative units, this paper attempted to identify the functional structures and regional impacts of city networks in China, and to further explore the spatial organization patterns of the existing functional regions, aiming to deepen our understanding of city network structures and to provide new cognitive perspectives for ongoing research. The research results lead to four key conclusions. First, city networks that are based on highway flows exhibit strong spatial dependence and hierarchical characteristics, to a large extent spatially coupled with the distributions of major megaregions in China. These phenomena are a reflection of spatial relationships at regional scales as well as core-periphery structure. Second, 19 communities that belong to an important type of spatial configuration are identified through community detection algorithm, and we suggest they are correspondingly urban economic regions within urban China. Their spatial metaphors include the administrative region economy, spatial spillover effects of megaregions, and core-periphery structure. Third, each community possesses a specific city network system and exhibits strong spatial dependence and various spatial organization patterns. Regional patterns have emerged as the result of multi-level, dynamic, and networked characteristics. Fourth, adopting a morphology-based perspective, the regional city network systems can be basically divided into monocentric, dual-nuclei, polycentric, and low-level equilibration spatial structures, while most are developing monocentrically.展开更多
基金This research is supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2021JJ30304)the General Topics of Hunan Social Science Achievement Evaluation Committee of China(Grant No.XSP22YBC366)the Key Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Education of China(Grant No.21B0592).
文摘Promoting the coupling coordination development of port and its hinterland city environments is an important way to improve urban economic competitiveness.Based on relevant data of 13 coastal port cities in eastern China from 2000 to 2018,this study explores the coupling coordination development of port and city environments and its impact on urban economic competitiveness by constructing the coupling coordination degree model and the panel threshold model.The research results show that:(1)In terms of the coupling coordination development of port and city environments,most coastal ports and their hinterland cities are in a state of moderate or serious disorder.Overall,the degree of coupling coordination of port and city environments needs to be further improved;(2)The coupling coordination degree of port and city environments has a significant impact on urban economic competitiveness,and this effect gradually increases with the development of the ports and the urban economy.Among the variables that impact the urban economic competitiveness,fixed assets investment and foreign trade are significant factors that can enhance urban economic competitiveness.(3)At present,there is a“U-shaped”relationship between the coupling coordination degree of port-city environments and the urban economic competitiveness.This relationship lies on the right side of the inflection point of the“U-shaped”curve.Therefore,following the concept of assigning priority to ecological development,expanding fixed assets investment and actively developing foreign trade can further enhance the urban economic competitiveness.
基金Under the auspices of the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (No.2004CB418507-2), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40471038)
文摘Urban agglomeration is made up of cities with different sizes to be linked by traffic network in a given area, and it is an inevitable result when urbanization reaches a certain level. Taking urban agglomeration in central Jilin (UACJ) as an example, this article analyzes the formation mechanism and spatial pattern of urban agglomeration in the less-developed area. First, the dynamics of UACJ has been analyzed from the aspects of geographical condition, economic foundation, policy background, and traffic condition. Then the development process is divided into three stages-single city, city group and city cluster. Secondly, the central cities are identified from the aspects of city cen- trality, and the development axes are classified based on economic communication capacity. Finally, the urban agglo- meration is divided into five urban economic regions in order to establish the reasonable distribution of industries.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41371008)
文摘Economic clusters have been a central focus of current urban and regional research, policies and practices. However, a methodology to identify and analyze policy-relevant economic cluster dynamics is still not well developed. Based on input-output(I-O) data of 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 of Beijing, this article presents an adapted principle component analysis for identifying the evolution of local economic cluster patterns. This research addresses the changes of economic interaction of industries with complementary and common activities over time. The identified clusters provide an insight into the reality of economic development in a diversifying urban economy: the increasing importance of services and the growing interaction between service and manufacturing industries. Our method therefore provides the analysts with a better understanding of the emergence, disappearance and development of economic clusters citywide. The results could be used to assist monitoring urban economic development and designing more practical urban economic strategies.
文摘This paper aims at studying the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and its role. Based on the economic model of urban spatial structure and applying panel data in Shandong Province, the paper concludes. Economic growth and transition of economic structure have played the most powerful role in urban expansion. An increase in population helps the core to extend. Increasing agricultural productivity can provide a countervailing force. An increase in transportation costs will limit urban expan- sion. An increase in the marginal productivity of land in housing production will increase urban expansion. Fiscal and taxation policies also have encouraged the extensive shift of cultivated land into build-up area. This paper also suggests that if high rate increasing GDP is needed, the urban core will continue to expand. The government should take measures to improve the rapid growth of the city.
基金Supported by the Research Foundation of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education(09Y0397)the School-Level Research Project of Qujing Normal University(2009QN014)
文摘The per capita disposable income of urban households and the per capita net income of rural households in Yunnan Province are selected as the variable indices.Data are from the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook and the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook.Theil index and RHL value are used to carry out quantitative research on the occurrence,development and change of urban and rural economic disparity in Yunnan Province,China.Regression analysis on the evolvement trend of urban and rural economic disparity and spatial analysis on the convergence and divergence of urban and rural disparity caused by economic growth in Yunnan Province are carried out.Result shows that cities in Yunnan Province show a downward convergence;while rural areas show a downward divergence in the years 1978-2007,causing the economic disparity between urban and rural areas.Therefore,urban and rural disparity increases in Yunnan Province and the development of rural areas lags far behind the development of urban areas.Urban and rural economic disparity in Yunnan Province shows an inverted "U" shape of Kuznets Curve.In order to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural economy,suggestions are put forward,such as adopting the unbalanced development strategy,accelerating the overall economic development,promoting the development of small and medium-sized cities,enhancing the integration of urban and rural economics,appropriately supporting rural areas under poverty,and fully exerting the comparative advantage.
文摘The urbanization is the course that industries and economic activities concentrate, and the history of urban development can be divided into three periods: early urbanization, industrial urbanization and post-industrialized urbanization. Marketization is the foundation of the city, and the development of non-agricultural industry such as commerce, service trade and secondary industry has spurred the prosperity of the city enormously. China has led rfiarketing economy into the course of industrialization and urbanization gradually in more than 20 years, but the level of marketization is still relatively low. China should endeavor to strengthen the tertiary industry, improve its quality and level, in order to get the full outside-effect and diffusion effect of it.
文摘Based on the study on the city transport systems of some typical cities worldwide,this paper put forward that each city transport system has its own development mode,which is influenced by the city development plan,economic development level,traveling vehicle composition etc..When some problems occur,such as the congestions caused by contradiction between the road capacity and vehicle composition,the city transport system may come into temporary maturity period.If the improvement for road system is limited meanwhile,optimized structure of vehicle composition should be an effective solution in this case.With the development of economy-internationalization,the development speed of city transport modernization is rapid.When traveling easiness is conflicting with efficiency,the advantages of public transport system become more obvious.Correspondingly,the superiority of two-wheel vehicles will reappear.Though the important function of two-wheel vehicles for alleviating city traffic problems is obvious,however,their development strategy must be reasonably proposed,and operation regulations must be performed accordingly.
文摘According to the essential features of urban economic strips, this paper is intended to point out that Chengdu-Chongqing strip has so far been an urban area in geographic or spatial sense, but not an urban economic strip in economic sense.On further basis of analyzing several problems existing inthe development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic strip,some countermeasures are correspondingly put forward hereafter.
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 51008002)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(S2012040007176)+2 种基金the Research Fund for the State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science(Grant 2011KB20)the Research Fund for the Harbin Institute of Technology(Grants HIT.NSRIF.2013100 and HIT.NSFIR.2011126)the Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy(DS20120901).
文摘Given the differences between cities in the United States and China,and the changing structure of Chinese cities,this paper examines the viability of some basic predictions of the Muth-Mills model of urban spatial structure for modern cities in China,using data for the year 2010. Chinese cities are experiencing rapid motorization and road construction over the last two decades,so we have tried to use different measurements for commuting cost in these cities to estimate the empirical model,and concluded that most results support the Muth-Mills assertion. The elasticities of the urban spatial size with respect to the signifi cant variables are discussed,comparing to those for cities in the United States. The results we obtain from both theoretical and empirical analyses can further increase our understanding on the model as a tool for a policy analysis on cities in China.
基金Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of PRC, No.11YJCZH201 Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.10JJ5017+1 种基金 Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.2010JD19 No.09YBA003
文摘The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quanti- tative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.
基金This research was fnancially supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.18ZDA005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71673033 and 71573077).
文摘This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR timespace compression as well as the city neighboring ejfects on economic growth.It is found that HSRs efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn:(i)China needs tofurther reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii)China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(Hi)China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.
文摘The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60%of the world’s population and half of the global economy.Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth,industrial structure and resource allocation.In this study,the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development,respectively.The population,urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020-2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs),and the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The population,urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways.The population will increase by 2%-8%/10a during 2020-2050 and reach 5.0-6.0 billion in 2050.Meanwhile,the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%-7.5%/10a and reach 49%-75%.The GDP will increase by 17%-34%/10a and reach 134-243 trillion USD.(2)Large differences will appear under different scenarios.The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels,but the population size is comparatively smaller;SSP3 shows the opposite trend.Meanwhile,the economy develops slowly under SSP4,but it has a relatively high urbanization level,while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3)In 2050,the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries,and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double.Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia,West Asia and Central Asia,and will increase by more than 150%in the fastest growing countries.The economy will grow fastest in South Asia,Southeast Asia and West Asia,and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.
基金Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.71533005The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA19050504。
文摘This study analyzes cities in China at the prefecture level and above to calculate indices for“urban economic efficiency”(the relationship between input factors and output)and“urbanization economic efficiency”(the relationship between newly increased output and increased economic input),based on the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA)method.We compare and analyze the factors influencing change and their spatial distributions.The results show that capital and labor rather than urban land could effectively improve urban and urbanization economic efficiency.And,although the proportion of wages to GDP has a significant negative impact on urban economic efficiency,for social equity and stability,the proportion should be increased;if appropriate,it would not significantly reduce urbanization economic efficiency.Additionally,population density,population urbanization rate,and government fiscal expenditure significantly positively impact urban and urbanization economic efficiency.However,we also found that increases in the degree of industrial structure deviation and urban landscape fragmentation are harmful to urbanization economic efficiency.In terms of spatial distribution,the urbanization economic efficiency of most of China's northeastern and eastern coastal areas is significantly lower than that of other regions;at the same time,the urban economic efficiency of most of these cities has been decreasing,especially in the northeast,which warrants greater policy attention.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530751,No.41471113,No.41601165
文摘The use of multi-perspective and multi-scalar city networks has gradually developed into a range of critical approaches to understand spatial interactions and linkages. In particular, road linkages represent key characteristics of spatial dependence and distance decay, and are of great significance in depicting spatial relationships at the regional scale. Therefore, based on highway passenger flow data between prefecture-level administrative units, this paper attempted to identify the functional structures and regional impacts of city networks in China, and to further explore the spatial organization patterns of the existing functional regions, aiming to deepen our understanding of city network structures and to provide new cognitive perspectives for ongoing research. The research results lead to four key conclusions. First, city networks that are based on highway flows exhibit strong spatial dependence and hierarchical characteristics, to a large extent spatially coupled with the distributions of major megaregions in China. These phenomena are a reflection of spatial relationships at regional scales as well as core-periphery structure. Second, 19 communities that belong to an important type of spatial configuration are identified through community detection algorithm, and we suggest they are correspondingly urban economic regions within urban China. Their spatial metaphors include the administrative region economy, spatial spillover effects of megaregions, and core-periphery structure. Third, each community possesses a specific city network system and exhibits strong spatial dependence and various spatial organization patterns. Regional patterns have emerged as the result of multi-level, dynamic, and networked characteristics. Fourth, adopting a morphology-based perspective, the regional city network systems can be basically divided into monocentric, dual-nuclei, polycentric, and low-level equilibration spatial structures, while most are developing monocentrically.