An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framew...An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.展开更多
Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(...Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.展开更多
Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological pro...Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.展开更多
Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present an...Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.展开更多
Urban expansion models are useful tools to understand urbanization process and have been given much attention. However, urban expansion is a complicated socio-economic phenomenon that is affected by complex and volati...Urban expansion models are useful tools to understand urbanization process and have been given much attention. However, urban expansion is a complicated socio-economic phenomenon that is affected by complex and volatile factors involving in great uncertainties. Therefore, the accurate simulation of the urban expansion process remains challenging. In this paper, we make an attempt to solve such uncertainty through a reversal process and view urban expansion as a process wherein the urban landscape overcomes resistance from other landscapes. We developed an innovative approach derived from the minimum cumulative resistance （MCR） model that involved the introduction of a relative resistance factor for dif- ferent source levels and the consideration of rigid constraints on urban expansion caused by ecological barriers. Using this approach, the urban expansion ecological resistance （UEER） model was created to describe ecological resistance surfaces suitable for simulating urban expansion and used to simulate urban expansion in Guangzhou. The study results demon- strate that the ecological resistance surface generated by the UEER model comprehensively reflects ecological resistance to urban expansion and indicates the spatial trends in urban expansion. The simulation results from the UEEIR-based model were more realistic and more accurately reflected ecological protection requirements than the conventional MCR-based model. These findings can enhance urban expansion simulation methods.展开更多
[目的]研究喀斯特城市群城镇化背景下的生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem service value,ESV)演变及影响因素,为区域生态环境保护、生态功能区划和生态补偿决策提供科学依据。[方法]基于黔中城市群2000—2020年土地利用数据,从自然和社会经...[目的]研究喀斯特城市群城镇化背景下的生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem service value,ESV)演变及影响因素,为区域生态环境保护、生态功能区划和生态补偿决策提供科学依据。[方法]基于黔中城市群2000—2020年土地利用数据,从自然和社会经济角度选取16个土地利用变化驱动因子,构建Markov-FLUS模型模拟自然发展和生态约束情景下的2030年土地利用格局,然后采用修正的ESV系数评估ESV时空演变规律,利用地理探测器分析ESV空间分异影响因素。[结果](1) 2000—2020年人造地表对耕地(53%)、林地(12%)和草地(10%)侵占严重;生态约束情景下重要自然保护区得到有效保护,人造地表增加5.55万hm^(2),增速有所放缓。(2) ESV整体呈现先升后降的趋势,其中调节服务(71.08%)>支持服务(23.59%)>文化服务(4.51%)>供给服务(0.82%);自然发展情景下2030年ESV值为592.11亿元,生态约束情景下ESV值为589.06亿元。(3) ESV空间分异因子解释力分别为区县面积(0.79)>农林牧渔增加值(0.51)>第一产业增加值(0.50)>GDP(0.41)>人均GDP(0.30)>建成区面积(0.09)>常住人口(0.04),区县面积、农林牧渔增加值和第一产业增加值与ESV呈显著正相关,人均GDP与ESV呈显著负相关关系,影响因素的交互对于ESV具有非线性增强和双因子增强的解释作用。[结论]区域生态系统服务类型主要为调节服务,水域与林地生态系统对于整体ESV的影响较大,是区域环境保护与生态建设的重心。展开更多
城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城...城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。展开更多
Delimiting ecological space scientifically and making reasonable predictions of the spatial-temporal trend of changes in the dominant ecosystem service functions(ESFs) are the basis of constructing an ecological prote...Delimiting ecological space scientifically and making reasonable predictions of the spatial-temporal trend of changes in the dominant ecosystem service functions(ESFs) are the basis of constructing an ecological protection pattern of territorial space, which has important theoretical significance and application value. At present, most research on the identification, functional partitioning and pattern reconstruction of ecological space refers to the current ESFs and their structural information, which ignores the spatial-temporal dynamic nature of the comprehensive and dominant ESFs, and does not seriously consider the change simulation in the dominant ESFs of the future ecological space. This affects the rationality of constructing an ecological space protection pattern to some extent. In this study, we propose an ecological space delimitation method based on the dynamic change characteristics of the ESFs, realize the identification of the ecological space range in Qionglai City and solve the problem of ignoring the spatial-temporal changes of ESFs in current research. On this basis, we also apply the Markov-CA model to integrate the spatial-temporal change characteristics of the dominant ESFs, successfully realize the simulation of the spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City’s ecological space in 2025, find a suitable method for simulating ecological spatial-temporal changes and also provide a basis for constructing a reasonable ecological space protection pattern. This study finds that the comprehensive quantity of ESF and its annual rate of change in Qionglai City show obvious dynamics, which confirms the necessity of considering the dynamic characteristics of ESFs when identifying ecological space. The areas of ecological space in Qionglai city represent 98307 ha by using the ecological space identification method proposed in this study, which is consistent with the ecological spatial distribution in the local ecological civilization construction plan. This confirms the reliability of the ecological space identification method based on the dynamic characteristics of the ESFs. The results also show that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City represented strong non-stationary characteristics during 2003–2019,which showed that we should fully consider the influence of the dynamics in the dominant ESFs on the future ESF pattern during the process of constructing the ecological spatial protection pattern. The Markov-CA model realized the simulation of spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs with a high precision Kappa coefficient of above 0.95, which illustrated the feasibility of using this model to simulate the future dominant ESF spatial pattern. The simulation results showed that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai will still undergo mutual conversions during 2019–2025 due to the effect of the their non-stationary nature. The ecological space will still maintain the three dominant ESFs of primary product production, climate regulation and hydrological regulation in 2025, but their areas will change to 32793 ha, 52490 ha and 13024 ha, respectively. This study can serve as a scientific reference for the delimitation of the ecological conservation redline, ecological function regionalization and the construction of an ecological spatial protection pattern.展开更多
基金It is a part of CERP (Cooperative Ecologioal Research Project) supported by UNESCO.
文摘An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52268008, 51768001)。
文摘Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0704705)。
文摘Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42276234)National Social Science Foundation Major Project of China(No.23&ZD105)+1 种基金the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Natural Resources of China(No.2023CZEPK04)the Science and Technology Major Project of Ningbo(No.2021Z181)。
文摘Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001385 12th Five-year National Science Supported Planning Project, No.2012BAJ 15B02
文摘Urban expansion models are useful tools to understand urbanization process and have been given much attention. However, urban expansion is a complicated socio-economic phenomenon that is affected by complex and volatile factors involving in great uncertainties. Therefore, the accurate simulation of the urban expansion process remains challenging. In this paper, we make an attempt to solve such uncertainty through a reversal process and view urban expansion as a process wherein the urban landscape overcomes resistance from other landscapes. We developed an innovative approach derived from the minimum cumulative resistance （MCR） model that involved the introduction of a relative resistance factor for dif- ferent source levels and the consideration of rigid constraints on urban expansion caused by ecological barriers. Using this approach, the urban expansion ecological resistance （UEER） model was created to describe ecological resistance surfaces suitable for simulating urban expansion and used to simulate urban expansion in Guangzhou. The study results demon- strate that the ecological resistance surface generated by the UEER model comprehensively reflects ecological resistance to urban expansion and indicates the spatial trends in urban expansion. The simulation results from the UEEIR-based model were more realistic and more accurately reflected ecological protection requirements than the conventional MCR-based model. These findings can enhance urban expansion simulation methods.
文摘城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。
基金The Sichuan Science and Technology Program (2020YFS0335, 2021YFH0121)The National College Students’ Innovative Entrepreneurial Training Plan Program of Sichuan Agricultural University (202110626038)The Double Support Program Project of Discipline Construction of Sichuan Agricultural University of China (2018, 2019, 2020)。
文摘Delimiting ecological space scientifically and making reasonable predictions of the spatial-temporal trend of changes in the dominant ecosystem service functions(ESFs) are the basis of constructing an ecological protection pattern of territorial space, which has important theoretical significance and application value. At present, most research on the identification, functional partitioning and pattern reconstruction of ecological space refers to the current ESFs and their structural information, which ignores the spatial-temporal dynamic nature of the comprehensive and dominant ESFs, and does not seriously consider the change simulation in the dominant ESFs of the future ecological space. This affects the rationality of constructing an ecological space protection pattern to some extent. In this study, we propose an ecological space delimitation method based on the dynamic change characteristics of the ESFs, realize the identification of the ecological space range in Qionglai City and solve the problem of ignoring the spatial-temporal changes of ESFs in current research. On this basis, we also apply the Markov-CA model to integrate the spatial-temporal change characteristics of the dominant ESFs, successfully realize the simulation of the spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City’s ecological space in 2025, find a suitable method for simulating ecological spatial-temporal changes and also provide a basis for constructing a reasonable ecological space protection pattern. This study finds that the comprehensive quantity of ESF and its annual rate of change in Qionglai City show obvious dynamics, which confirms the necessity of considering the dynamic characteristics of ESFs when identifying ecological space. The areas of ecological space in Qionglai city represent 98307 ha by using the ecological space identification method proposed in this study, which is consistent with the ecological spatial distribution in the local ecological civilization construction plan. This confirms the reliability of the ecological space identification method based on the dynamic characteristics of the ESFs. The results also show that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai City represented strong non-stationary characteristics during 2003–2019,which showed that we should fully consider the influence of the dynamics in the dominant ESFs on the future ESF pattern during the process of constructing the ecological spatial protection pattern. The Markov-CA model realized the simulation of spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs with a high precision Kappa coefficient of above 0.95, which illustrated the feasibility of using this model to simulate the future dominant ESF spatial pattern. The simulation results showed that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai will still undergo mutual conversions during 2019–2025 due to the effect of the their non-stationary nature. The ecological space will still maintain the three dominant ESFs of primary product production, climate regulation and hydrological regulation in 2025, but their areas will change to 32793 ha, 52490 ha and 13024 ha, respectively. This study can serve as a scientific reference for the delimitation of the ecological conservation redline, ecological function regionalization and the construction of an ecological spatial protection pattern.
