Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

Granger Causality Test of Urban-rural Income Gap and Employment of Rural Labor Forces——A Case Study of Shouguang City

Taking Shouguang City in Shandong Province as an example, this article researches the mutual relationship between urban-rural income and employment of rural labor forces, and conducting cointegration test and Granger causality test on the variable sequences using statistical data. The results show that the average annual income of rural labor forces influences the income per capita of rural residents, and there is a Granger causality relationship between the income per capita of rural residents and urban employees' average wage. Engaging in production concerning agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery makes the total income per capita in rural areas of Shouguang City higher than the average wage of urban residents in Shouguang City, even in Weifang City. The comparative advantage in terms of income causes the city to loose attraction to rural residents in Shouguang City. The comparative advantage drives more rural labor forces in Shouguang City to engage in primary industry, thereby greatly reducing the pressure of employment and transfer of rural labor forces. Finally important following measures are put forward to promote employment and on-the-spot transfer of rural labor forces: vigorously propel agricultural industrialization; increase rural residents' income; improve the living conditions for rural residents.

The Approaches to Narrowing Urban-Rural Income Gap——From the Perspective of Rural Social Security

From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.

House Price, Consumption Power and Gap of Demographic Urbanization in China

This paper investigates the gap of demographic urbanization arising from the difference between rural residents who have migrated to cities and those who have acquired urban citizenship in the process of China's urbanization. The skyrocketing house prices and insufficient household consumption power are key factors to the widening gap, which had reached 18% in 2013. In order to explore this issue, by creating the basic model and the model with interaction term, this paper has analyzed the relationship among house prices, consumption power and gap of urbanization using the data of 31 provinces between 1999 and 2013 in China. Empirical result indicates that: there is a positive correlation between the house prices and the gap of China's demographic urbanization. However, such a correlation is restrained by these rural migrants who rent houses in cities. For an increase of house price by 1%, the gap of urbanization will widen by 1.05%. Although rising urban consumption power of rural residents has increased the ratio of migration, the lagged growth of consumption power has led to a widening gap of urbanization. Therefore, the only way to effectively reduce the gap of demographic urbanization is to increase the consumption power of migrant population and optimize consumption structure.

Urban-rural Income Gap Needs Urgent Reduction

Since the late 1970s, with the rapid growth of China’s economy, the income levels of both urban and rural residents have risen significantly, and their standard of living has fundamentally improved. However, a disparity in income growth between the two exists, and the disparities in relative and absolute income have experienced a period of long-term expansion, which has led to the long-time widening of the consumption gap. There are several indicators of these disparities: the proportion of urban and rural consumption compared to the national level, the changes measured by the Engel’s coefficient, residents’ possession of consumer durables in the countryside, etc. The expanding disparity in consumption between urban and rural residents is neither conducive to meeting aggregate domestic demand, nor to upgrading the industrial structure. In this regard, measures must be taken to curb the expanding urban and rural income gap, so as to help rural incomes grow more quickly and further promote China’s economic growth and social stability.

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand:Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000-2010

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view,and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap and consumption demand.Then,the paper finds that the existing widening income distribution gap in China has a negative impact on consumption demand,but this is not the key factor for the insufficient consumption demand because of the low level of per capital income.At last,it suggests that governments should improve the income level of entire residents and adjust income distribution structure simultaneously.

The Impact of the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in the Yangtze River Delta on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

Firstly,this paper conducts theoretical analysis and current situation analysis,and then proposes research hypotheses.Secondly,using spatial Dubin model and partial differential method,it empirically studies the impact of industrial structure advancement and rationalization on the urban-rural income gap.The results show that:(1)Both industrial structure and urban-rural income gap have significant spatial dependence;(2)The increase in the industrial structure rationalization will narrow the urban-rural income gap in local region,while its spillover effect on neighboring areas is not obvious.(3)The impact of the industrial structure advancement on the urban-rural income gap is not linear.It is first expanded and then narrowed.The industrial structure advancement in the Yangtze River Delta will generally narrow the urban-rural income gap at this stage.Finally,this paper put forward relevant suggestions.

Research on the Impact of Rural Labour Forces Transfer on the Urban-rural Income Based on Economics of Discrimination

On the basis of the analytical frame of discrimination, the thesis establishes a model of transfer of rural labour forces into city, and researches the impact of rural labour forces transfer on urban-rural income. The results show that the transfer of rural labour forces into city can increase urban-rural income and bridge the income gap between city and village to a certain extent. However, the capital stock of city in China is greatly more than that of the village, so the rural labour forces transfer cannot eliminate the urban-rural income gap completely. In order to elevate the rural income level in China and narrow urban-rural income gap, the government should paint a picture with two brushes at the same time: on one hand, the government should promote the transfer of rural labour forces into city, and change the status quo of dual urban-rural labour forces market structure; on the other hand, the government should increase the input in rural areas and promote the increase of rural capital stock so as to further increase rural residents' income in the process of labour forces transfer.

转移性收入促进了农村居民消费结构升级吗?

农村居民消费结构升级对于扩大内需、增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性具有重要意义。基于2000-2019年省级面板数据,依据常相对风险规避效用函数理论和马斯洛需求层次理论揭示转移性收入对农村居民消费结构升级的影响及其机理,并进一步分析转移性收入对缩小消费结构升级差距的作用。研究发现:每增加1%的转移性收入,农村居民发展享受型消费占总消费的比重将提高2.6%,并且随着农村居民可支配收入的提高,转移性收入对于农村居民消费结构升级程度的影响效应逐渐减弱;转移性收入主要是通过降低农村居民的食品消费支出占比、提高教育文化娱乐消费支出占比和医疗保健消费支出占比的方式来促进农村居民消费结构升级的程度;转移性收入缩小了不同收入水平和不同地区间的农村居民消费结构升级程度的差距,尤其对于中低收入和中西部的农村居民作用明显。据此提出实施差异化的转移支付政策、强化弱势群体帮扶措施、拓展农村居民消费供给等促进农村居民消费结构升级等政策建议。

收入差距与产品质量对消费结构的影响研究

在多样化消费升级和加速培育消费型社会的新阶段,需求侧持续扩大的收入差距、供给侧明显过剩的低质产品制约着消费结构的升级。本文以供、求双侧为研究视角,考察收入差距、产品质量对消费结构的影响。理论分析和实证检验表明,收入差距缩小有助于优化消费结构,而产品质量则对消费结构产生“倒U型”影响。进一步检验发现收入差距在产品质量和消费结构关系中存在门槛效应。当收入差距较小时,产品质量对消费结构产生正向影响;而当收入差距扩大超过一定程度时,产品质量的提升难以促进消费结构升级。因而稳步推进收入分配改革,缩小收入差距并与供给侧产品质量提升形成协同效应,更加有助于推进消费结构升级。

森林康养消费意愿—行为与服务质量期望—感知调查及差距分析

基于对森林康养实际消费者问卷调查,发现森林康养消费者消费意愿—行为差距和森林康养服务质量期望—感知差距,根据差距分析提出以需求为导向的森林康养供给侧改革方向。研究表明,森林康养消费意愿强烈,森林康养潜在市场空间巨大,在消费次数、消费金额和消费时长等方面均远未达到消费者的预期,可以成为森林康养产业发展的增长点。配套设施、管理服务的期望—感知差距最大,因此,完善配套设施、提升管理服务成为森林康养项目重点改进方向。应从丰富自然资源多样性着手减少自然生态类因素的期望—感知差距,提高康养项目体验性与多样性,为消费者提供高性价比的森林康养产品,重点提升消费者的身心愉悦感。

产业转型升级、城乡收入差距与居民消费

居民消费是畅通国内大循环的关键环节和重要引擎,产业转型升级优化了消费供给。本文实证分析了产业转型升级对居民消费的直接影响,以及通过城乡收入差距所产生的间接影响。研究发现,经济高质量发展期间,产业转型升级显著促进居民消费;城乡收入差距在产业转型升级和居民消费间的中介效应显著,产业转型升级会通过缩小城乡收入差距间接促进居民消费;产业转型升级对居民消费的影响以及城乡收入差距的中介效应均存在区域异质性,西部地区的直接影响和中介影响均强于中部和东部地区。因此,应该通过供给侧为居民提供丰富、高质量的商品,满足人民日益增长的消费需求;通过产业转型升级带动就业,提高劳动力收入,缩小城乡收入差距,同时积极防范部分地区在实施产业转型升级政策时出现扩大城乡收入差距等问题。

空气质量改善能缩小城乡居民消费差距吗?——兼论绿色发展对共同富裕的促进作用

厘清空气质量对城乡居民消费差距的影响作用,有助于理解中国式现代化进程中绿色发展与共同富裕目标的协同推进。从医疗和防御性支出、规避行为以及劳动生产率等视角阐释了空气质量影响城乡居民消费差距的理论机制,并使用2005—2020年中国省际面板数据对其影响作用进行了实证检验。研究发现:空气质量改善会显著缩小城乡居民消费差距,这一结论在使用逆温天数作为工具变量进行内生性处理,以及更换空气污染物指标、考虑空间自相关等方式进行稳健性检验后依然成立;该作用通过缩小城乡居民消费倾向差距以及城乡居民收入差距两条渠道产生;此外,空气质量对城乡居民消费差距的影响作用还存在空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,推动绿色发展改善空气质量,能够缩小城乡居民消费差距,从而助力共同富裕目标的实现。

人力资本对服务消费水平的提升效应——基于城乡居民服务消费差距视角

人力资本积累是增加收入、推动消费升级、提升服务消费水平和缩小城乡居民服务消费差距的重要力量。本文利用空间杜宾模型实证研究人力资本对城乡居民服务消费差距的影响,并分析研发资本存量、发明专利申请量和中国城市创新力指数影响城乡居民服务消费差距的作用机制,为进一步释放城乡居民消费潜力、提高服务消费水平和缩小服务消费差距提供政策设计依据。研究发现:第一,人力资本积累可以提高服务消费水平和缩小城乡居民服务消费差距,并且具有空间溢出效应。中部地区人力资本对城乡居民服务消费差距缩小效果最大且对其他区域城乡居民服务消费差距缩小的空间溢出效应最突出。第二,技术创新水平在人力资本对城乡居民服务消费差距的影响中具有间接机制作用,因而可以通过提高研发资本存量和发明专利申请量缩小差距。为进一步缩小城乡服务消费差距,需要从加强人力资本投资、提高企业竞争力和供需匹配能力、适度调节进口贸易占比、提升居民数字消费能力、提高研发资本存量占比等方面发力。

双维度视阈下家庭收入期望差距对消费的影响

消费是保持经济持续稳定增长最主要的需求来源,深入挖掘消费潜能、充分发挥消费对经济增长的驱动作用对经济复苏和持续发展至关重要。文章基于前景理论,采用中国家庭金融调查数据,从历史和社会双维度视阈探讨了家庭收入期望差距对消费行为的影响及作用机理。家庭收入期望差距对消费有显著影响,但具有不对称性,总体而言,收入期望顺差对消费的影响落差较大。家庭收入社会期望顺差显著促进消费,落差显著抑制消费;家庭收入历史期望顺差和落差均显著促进消费。收入社会期望顺差比历史期望顺差对当期消费促进作用更强,长期则反之。分析表明,收入期望顺差通过提升家庭风险容忍度进而促进消费,而在收入社会期望处于落差状态下家庭风险容忍度不易改变。研究为解释家庭消费行为和制定刺激消费需求相关政策提供了新的观点和实证依据。

数字经济、空间效应与城乡居民消费差距

缩小城乡居民消费差距是畅通国内大循环的重要手段,也是实现共同富裕目标的必然要求。基于2011~2020年省级面板数据,本文研究数字经济对城乡居民消费差距的影响效应、作用机制及空间溢出效应。发现数字经济对城乡居民消费差距具有缩小作用,但该缩小作用存在消费类型和农村居民人力资本异质性。具体来说,较之生存型消费差距,数字经济对城乡居民发展享乐型消费差距的缩小作用更明显;较之低农村居民人力资本地区,数字经济对高农村居民人力资本地区城乡居民消费差距的缩小作用更强。机制分析发现,数字经济通过促进乡村产业振兴和弥合城乡数字鸿沟缩小城乡居民消费差距。进一步的空间计量分析表明,数字经济还能通过空间溢出效应缩小周边地区的城乡居民消费差距。据此,建议缩小区域间的数字经济发展差距、补齐乡村产业的数字化短板和消弭城乡数字鸿沟,以增强数字经济发展的城乡居民消费差距缩小效应。

农村人口老龄化对城乡消费差距的影响——以长江经济带为例

基于2012—2021年长江经济带省级面板数据,构建OLS模型分析该经济带农村人口老龄化对城乡消费差距的影响。结果表明,长江经济带农村人口老龄化对该经济带城乡消费差距有显著的缩小效应,对城镇居民和农村居民的人均消费支出则有显著的扩大效应,且对城镇居民人均消费支出的扩大效应小于对农村居民人均消费支出的扩大效应。区域回归结果表明,农村人口老龄化对长江经济带各区域城乡消费差距均有显著的缩小效应,且对中游城乡消费差距的缩小效应更强,对上游的缩小效应次之,下游最小。

数字经济赋能城乡融合的内在逻辑与实现路径

在数字经济迅猛发展的时代背景下,其对城乡融合的推动作用愈发显著,如何利用数字经济加速城乡融合已成为当前亟待探讨的重要议题。数字经济在推动城乡融合发展的进程中,通过多维度的深度融合机制发挥了至关重要的作用。具体而言,数字经济在促进人口流动与融合、推动经济结构优化与升级、实现空间布局的均衡与协调、提升社会服务的普及水平,以及改善生态环境与推动可持续发展等方面,均展现出显著的成效,为城乡一体化提供了坚实的支撑。然而,在数字经济赋能城乡融合的过程中也面临着数字鸿沟、创新动力不足、人才短缺等挑战与问题。因此,应当从加快数字经济发展均衡化进程、提升全社会数字创新意识与能力、强化数字高端人才培养与引进等方面入手,加快数字经济赋能城乡融合的进程,实现城乡融合发展的战略目标。

长寿红利与数智创生:老年人数字文化消费的价值基底、现实困境与实践指向

长寿时代与数字时代的耦合降临加速了积极老龄化与生产方式变革的协同运作。文化消费以其精神属性、强公共性等特征在数智创生作用下促进老年群体的产消合一与价值共创,释放出数字时代的长寿红利。当前,我国老年人数字文化消费在个体、环境、技术三个层面仍然面临突出困境,破题关键是充分激活老年人的主体价值。发展老年人数字文化消费应从重视产消合一型数字公共文化服务供给、增加社交性—情感性数字文化产品研发、畅通老年人数字文化消费适老化技术路径、优化老年人数字文化消费—生产资源配置等方面构建多元协同体系,最终形成与西方“技术优先”原则鲜明对照的中国式经验。