The time-of-use(TOU)strategy can effectively improve the energy consumption mode of customers,reduce the peak-valley difference of load curve,and optimize the allocation of energy resources.This study presents an Opti...The time-of-use(TOU)strategy can effectively improve the energy consumption mode of customers,reduce the peak-valley difference of load curve,and optimize the allocation of energy resources.This study presents an Optimal guidance mechanism of the flexible load based on strategies of direct load control and time-of-use.First,this study proposes a period partitioning model,which is based on a moving boundary technique with constraint factors,and the Dunn Validity Index(DVI)is used as the objective to solve the period partitioning.Second,a control strategy for the curtailable flexible load is investigated,and a TOU strategy is utilized for further modifying load curve.Third,a price demand response strategy for adjusting transferable load is proposed in this paper.Finally,through the case study analysis of typical daily flexible load curve,the efficiency and correctness of the proposed method and model are validated and proved.展开更多
Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2011 and 2013,this paper studied the impact of retirement on male and female workers’health and its impact mechanism under the manda...Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2011 and 2013,this paper studied the impact of retirement on male and female workers’health and its impact mechanism under the mandatory retirement age system in China by using Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design(FRDD).The results indicated that retirement increased the probability of men assessing themselves as"healthy"by 25 percentage points and lowered the probability of suffering from chronic diseases for women by 26 percentage points.In terms of mechanism analysis,it was found that the remarkable increase in social interactions after retirement was the main reason for the improvement of health for male retirees,but not the reason for the lower probability of having chronic diseases for female retirees.The findings serve as important references for formulating policies regarding postponing retirement age and flexible retirement.展开更多
In certain environments and under some conditions, the video images taken by the intelligent mobile video phones seem dark, and the colors are not bright or saturated enough.This paper presents an adaptive method to e...In certain environments and under some conditions, the video images taken by the intelligent mobile video phones seem dark, and the colors are not bright or saturated enough.This paper presents an adaptive method to enhance the video image brightness visualization and the color performance depending on the certain hardware property and function parameters. The experimental results prove that this method can enhance the colors and the contrast of the video images, based on the estimated quality feature values of each frame, without using the extra Digital Signal Processor (DSP).展开更多
The Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic Transvaal Supergroup of the Kaapvaal Craton,southern Africa,is one of the best-preserved and most complete stratigraphic records across a critical in juncture in the Earth’s history.
BACKGROUND Single-parent families are burdened with dual roles as parents amidst economic poverty due to the lack of a spouse.Single parents also face the complications of time poverty.AIM To examine the time use of s...BACKGROUND Single-parent families are burdened with dual roles as parents amidst economic poverty due to the lack of a spouse.Single parents also face the complications of time poverty.AIM To examine the time use of single-parent families by dividing their time into occupational area and explore the differences in time deficiency and life satisfaction.METHODS In this study,the time usage in the‘2019 time of life survey’data of the National Statistical Office is classified based on the fourth edition of the Occupational Therapy Practice Framework,and the time use and satisfaction of single-parent families classified according to sex.In the‘2019 time of life survey’of the National Statistical Office,the subjects who selected single-parent families in the‘single parent-parent-grandchild households’item were first selected.The data of 404 parents from single-parent families were selected next.The time usage,time deficiency,and life satisfaction were analyzed by occupational area.RESULTS The subjects spent the most time resting and sleeping,followed by engaging in instrumental activities of daily living(IADLs),work,and health management.As a result of comparing the subjects by sex,it was found that the male subjects spent more time on work than the female subjects,and the female subjects spent more time on IADLs,education and social participation.As a result of comparing time deficiency and life satisfaction,the male subjects felt that they lacked time compared to the female subjects.There was no significant difference in life satisfaction.By examining whether single-parent families'time use by occupa tional area affected the time deficiency,it was found that male's working time make them feel they have less time,while female's leisure time makes them feel they have more time.CONCLUSION This study made it possible to determine the characteristics of single-parent households’time use and sex differences.Furthermore,it is expected to be used as basic data for measures to solve not only time poverty,but also economic poverty in single-parent families.展开更多
We present a passive geoacoustic inversion method using two hydrophones, which combines noise interferometry and time reversal mirror (TRM) techniques. Numerical simulations are firstly performed, in which strong fo...We present a passive geoacoustic inversion method using two hydrophones, which combines noise interferometry and time reversal mirror (TRM) techniques. Numerical simulations are firstly performed, in which strong fo- cusing occurs in the vicinity of one hydrophone when Green's function (GF) is back-propagated from the other hydrophone, with the position and strength of the focus being sensitive to sound speed and density in the bottom. We next extract the GF from the noise cross-correlation function measured by two hydrophones with 8025-m distance in the Shallow Water '06 experiment. After realizing the TRM process, sound speed and density in the bottom are inverted by optimizing focusing of the back-propagated GF. The passive inversion method is inherently environmentally friendly and low-cost.展开更多
We present a hybrid singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and fuzzy entropy method to filter noisy nonlinear time series. With this approach, SSA decomposes the noisy time series into its constituent components including...We present a hybrid singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and fuzzy entropy method to filter noisy nonlinear time series. With this approach, SSA decomposes the noisy time series into its constituent components including both the deterministic behavior and noise, while fuzzy entropy automatically differentiates the optimal dominant components from the noise based on the complexity of each component. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid approach in reconstructing the Lorenz and Mackey--Class attractors, as well as improving the multi-step prediction quality of these two series in noisy environments.展开更多
Plant capacity for water storage leads to time lags between basal stem sap flow and transpiration in various woody plants. Internal water storage depends on the sizes of woody plants. However, the changes and its infl...Plant capacity for water storage leads to time lags between basal stem sap flow and transpiration in various woody plants. Internal water storage depends on the sizes of woody plants. However, the changes and its influencing factors in time lags of basal stem flow during the development of herbaceous plants including crops remain unclear. A field experiment was conducted in an arid region of Northwest China to examine the time lag characteristics of sap flow in seed-maize and to calibrate the transpiration modeling. Cross-correlation analysis was used to estimate the time lags between stem sap flow and meteorological driving factors including solar radiation(R_s) and vapor pressure deficit of the air(VPD_(air)). Results indicate that the changes in seed-maize stem sap flow consistently lagged behind the changes in R_s and preceded the changes in VPD_(air) both on hourly and daily scales, suggesting that light-mediated stomatal closures drove sap flow responses. The time lag in the maize's sap flow differed significantly during different growth stages and the difference was potentially due to developmental changes in capacitance tissue and/or xylem during ontogenesis. The time lags between stem sap flow and R_s in both female plants and male plants corresponded to plant use of stored water and were independent of total plant water use. Time lags of sap flow were always longer in male plants than in female plants. Theoretically, dry soil may decrease the speed by which sap flow adjusts ahead of shifts in VPD_(air) in comparison with wet soil and also increase the speed by which sap flow adjusts to R_s. However, sap flow lags that were associated with R_s before irrigation and after irrigation in female plants did not shift. Time series analysis method provided better results for simulating seed-maize sap flow with advantages of allowing for fewer variables to be included. This approach would be helpful in improving the accuracy of estimation for canopy transpiration and conductance using meteorological measurements.展开更多
This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rat...This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rate of events of each magnitude can be inferred from the G-R relation.At the same tune,the actual annual occurrence rate of earthquakes of higher magnitudes can be calculated from historical earthquakes(1300-1993)recorded in the same region.It seems that both results are almost the same.Therefore,the rate of events of higher magnitudes can be obtained by using microseismicity data when the proper region is selected.However,two points should be noticed:(1)The method can only give the annual occurrence rate in a seismicity system and estimate the whole situation of the system.(2)When there is a very large earthquake in and near the period in which the microseismicity data are applied,the actual occurrence rate of the system,including this larger earthquake,cannot be obtained by this method.展开更多
The Olympic stadiums, at a cost of billions of dollars, should be well utilized after the Beijing Olympic Games Now that the bell of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is soon to ring, people at home and abroad
Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measu...Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measurement and standardization systems in the industry process chain in developing countries prevents the penetration of demand management models,generating inefficiency in the analysis and processing of informa-tion to validate the flexibility potential that large consumers can contribute to the network operator.In this sense,the research uses as input variables the energy and power of the load profile provided by the utility energy meter to obtain the disaggregated forecast in quarter-hour intervals in 4-time windows validated through metrics and its results evaluated by the RMS error to get the total error generated by the methodology with the appli-cation of Machine Learning and Big Data techniques in the Python computational tool through Combinatorial Disaggregation Optimization and Factorial Hidden Markov models.展开更多
A measuring method of the echo reduction of passive materials by using the time reversal(TR) technique is presented. To measure the echo reduction of a sample with this approach, the received signals are firstly foc...A measuring method of the echo reduction of passive materials by using the time reversal(TR) technique is presented. To measure the echo reduction of a sample with this approach, the received signals are firstly focused according to the TR theory. Then, the sample is removed and the TR processing is again employed to realize the focus of the received signal.Finally, the echo reduction of the sample is evaluated with these focusing signals. Besides, to calibrate the measured echo reduction via the TR technique, a standard sample is employed to measure a constant coefficient that only depends on the measurement environment. An aluminum plate sample and a steel plate sample with the same size of 1.1 mxl.O m x0.005 m axe tested in a wave guide tank. The experimental results show that the calibrated values are well consistent with theoretical results under the free field at the measured frequency range of0.5-20 kHz. The relative errors of all the measured values are less than 10% and the values of the expanded uncertainty are less than 1.5 dB. The TR processing focuses the energy in spatial domain and temporal domain, so it can be used to measure the echo reduction of passive materials in the environments with reflections induced by boundaries and low frequency sources.展开更多
Advancements in computational technologies for residential energy management have become widespread due to increased energy usage and peak demand in households.Controlled switching of appliances during peak periods fo...Advancements in computational technologies for residential energy management have become widespread due to increased energy usage and peak demand in households.Controlled switching of appliances during peak periods for energy reduction is one of such solutions.However,this technique may constrict the consumer’s flexibility to utilize desired appliances to fulfil their needs.This study proposes a peak load control technique based on an end-use appliance prioritization and event detection algorithm.A noteworthy feature of the technique is the users’preferred appliance(UPA),which provides the occupants with the flexibility to use any electric load to fulfill their needs at any time whether peak demand control has been initiated or not.Furthermore,to address the challenging issue around the uncertain and varying nature of the users’energy usage pattern,an empirical bottom-up approach is adopted to characterize the consumers’diverse end-use behavior.The results obtained show good performance in terms of peak demand and energy consumption reduction,with 3%to 20%and at least 14.05%in demand reduction for time of use(ToU)periods and energy savings,respectively.These offer a further perspective on demand side management,affording load users a new cost-saving energy usage pattern.展开更多
The traditional space target detection methods mainly use the spatial characteristics of the star map to detect the targets, which can not make full use of the time domain information. This paper presents a new space ...The traditional space target detection methods mainly use the spatial characteristics of the star map to detect the targets, which can not make full use of the time domain information. This paper presents a new space moving target detection method based on time domain features. We firstly construct the time spectral data of star map, then analyze the time domain features of the main objects(target, stars and the background) in star maps, finally detect the moving targets using single pulse feature of the time domain signal. The real star map target detection experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively detect the trajectory of moving targets in the star map sequence, and the detection probability achieves 99% when the false alarm rate is about 8×10^(-5), which outperforms those of compared algorithms.展开更多
When linear regressive models such as AR or ARMA model are used for fitting and predicting climatic time series,results are often not sufficiently good because nonlinear variations in the time series.In this paper, a ...When linear regressive models such as AR or ARMA model are used for fitting and predicting climatic time series,results are often not sufficiently good because nonlinear variations in the time series.In this paper, a nonlinear self-exciting threshold autoregressive(SETAR)model is applied to modeling and predicting the time series of flood/drought runs in Beijing,which were derived from the graded historical flood/drought records in the last 511 years(1470—1980).The results show that the modeling and predicting with the SETAR model are much better than that of the AR model.The latter can predict the flood/drought runs with a length only less than two years,while the formal can predict more than three-year length runs.This may be due to the fact that the SETAR model can renew the model according to the run-turning points in the process of predic- tion,though the time series is nonstationary.展开更多
基金supported by open fund of state key laboratory of operation and control of renewable energy&storage systems(China electric power research institute)(No.NYB51202201709).
文摘The time-of-use(TOU)strategy can effectively improve the energy consumption mode of customers,reduce the peak-valley difference of load curve,and optimize the allocation of energy resources.This study presents an Optimal guidance mechanism of the flexible load based on strategies of direct load control and time-of-use.First,this study proposes a period partitioning model,which is based on a moving boundary technique with constraint factors,and the Dunn Validity Index(DVI)is used as the objective to solve the period partitioning.Second,a control strategy for the curtailable flexible load is investigated,and a TOU strategy is utilized for further modifying load curve.Third,a price demand response strategy for adjusting transferable load is proposed in this paper.Finally,through the case study analysis of typical daily flexible load curve,the efficiency and correctness of the proposed method and model are validated and proved.
基金supporter by “Economic Effect of Postponing Retirement Age and Research on a Fair,Sustainable Pension Insurance System”(15BJY182)funded by the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)
文摘Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2011 and 2013,this paper studied the impact of retirement on male and female workers’health and its impact mechanism under the mandatory retirement age system in China by using Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design(FRDD).The results indicated that retirement increased the probability of men assessing themselves as"healthy"by 25 percentage points and lowered the probability of suffering from chronic diseases for women by 26 percentage points.In terms of mechanism analysis,it was found that the remarkable increase in social interactions after retirement was the main reason for the improvement of health for male retirees,but not the reason for the lower probability of having chronic diseases for female retirees.The findings serve as important references for formulating policies regarding postponing retirement age and flexible retirement.
文摘In certain environments and under some conditions, the video images taken by the intelligent mobile video phones seem dark, and the colors are not bright or saturated enough.This paper presents an adaptive method to enhance the video image brightness visualization and the color performance depending on the certain hardware property and function parameters. The experimental results prove that this method can enhance the colors and the contrast of the video images, based on the estimated quality feature values of each frame, without using the extra Digital Signal Processor (DSP).
文摘The Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic Transvaal Supergroup of the Kaapvaal Craton,southern Africa,is one of the best-preserved and most complete stratigraphic records across a critical in juncture in the Earth’s history.
基金the Kangwon National Institutional Review Board(Approval No.KWNUIRB-2021-07-002).
文摘BACKGROUND Single-parent families are burdened with dual roles as parents amidst economic poverty due to the lack of a spouse.Single parents also face the complications of time poverty.AIM To examine the time use of single-parent families by dividing their time into occupational area and explore the differences in time deficiency and life satisfaction.METHODS In this study,the time usage in the‘2019 time of life survey’data of the National Statistical Office is classified based on the fourth edition of the Occupational Therapy Practice Framework,and the time use and satisfaction of single-parent families classified according to sex.In the‘2019 time of life survey’of the National Statistical Office,the subjects who selected single-parent families in the‘single parent-parent-grandchild households’item were first selected.The data of 404 parents from single-parent families were selected next.The time usage,time deficiency,and life satisfaction were analyzed by occupational area.RESULTS The subjects spent the most time resting and sleeping,followed by engaging in instrumental activities of daily living(IADLs),work,and health management.As a result of comparing the subjects by sex,it was found that the male subjects spent more time on work than the female subjects,and the female subjects spent more time on IADLs,education and social participation.As a result of comparing time deficiency and life satisfaction,the male subjects felt that they lacked time compared to the female subjects.There was no significant difference in life satisfaction.By examining whether single-parent families'time use by occupa tional area affected the time deficiency,it was found that male's working time make them feel they have less time,while female's leisure time makes them feel they have more time.CONCLUSION This study made it possible to determine the characteristics of single-parent households’time use and sex differences.Furthermore,it is expected to be used as basic data for measures to solve not only time poverty,but also economic poverty in single-parent families.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 11434012 and 41561144006
文摘We present a passive geoacoustic inversion method using two hydrophones, which combines noise interferometry and time reversal mirror (TRM) techniques. Numerical simulations are firstly performed, in which strong fo- cusing occurs in the vicinity of one hydrophone when Green's function (GF) is back-propagated from the other hydrophone, with the position and strength of the focus being sensitive to sound speed and density in the bottom. We next extract the GF from the noise cross-correlation function measured by two hydrophones with 8025-m distance in the Shallow Water '06 experiment. After realizing the TRM process, sound speed and density in the bottom are inverted by optimizing focusing of the back-propagated GF. The passive inversion method is inherently environmentally friendly and low-cost.
文摘We present a hybrid singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and fuzzy entropy method to filter noisy nonlinear time series. With this approach, SSA decomposes the noisy time series into its constituent components including both the deterministic behavior and noise, while fuzzy entropy automatically differentiates the optimal dominant components from the noise based on the complexity of each component. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid approach in reconstructing the Lorenz and Mackey--Class attractors, as well as improving the multi-step prediction quality of these two series in noisy environments.
基金support from the National Key Basic Research Program of China (2016YFC0400207)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51439006, 91425302)the 111 Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities (B14002)
文摘Plant capacity for water storage leads to time lags between basal stem sap flow and transpiration in various woody plants. Internal water storage depends on the sizes of woody plants. However, the changes and its influencing factors in time lags of basal stem flow during the development of herbaceous plants including crops remain unclear. A field experiment was conducted in an arid region of Northwest China to examine the time lag characteristics of sap flow in seed-maize and to calibrate the transpiration modeling. Cross-correlation analysis was used to estimate the time lags between stem sap flow and meteorological driving factors including solar radiation(R_s) and vapor pressure deficit of the air(VPD_(air)). Results indicate that the changes in seed-maize stem sap flow consistently lagged behind the changes in R_s and preceded the changes in VPD_(air) both on hourly and daily scales, suggesting that light-mediated stomatal closures drove sap flow responses. The time lag in the maize's sap flow differed significantly during different growth stages and the difference was potentially due to developmental changes in capacitance tissue and/or xylem during ontogenesis. The time lags between stem sap flow and R_s in both female plants and male plants corresponded to plant use of stored water and were independent of total plant water use. Time lags of sap flow were always longer in male plants than in female plants. Theoretically, dry soil may decrease the speed by which sap flow adjusts ahead of shifts in VPD_(air) in comparison with wet soil and also increase the speed by which sap flow adjusts to R_s. However, sap flow lags that were associated with R_s before irrigation and after irrigation in female plants did not shift. Time series analysis method provided better results for simulating seed-maize sap flow with advantages of allowing for fewer variables to be included. This approach would be helpful in improving the accuracy of estimation for canopy transpiration and conductance using meteorological measurements.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the contract of No. 49574207
文摘This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rate of events of each magnitude can be inferred from the G-R relation.At the same tune,the actual annual occurrence rate of earthquakes of higher magnitudes can be calculated from historical earthquakes(1300-1993)recorded in the same region.It seems that both results are almost the same.Therefore,the rate of events of higher magnitudes can be obtained by using microseismicity data when the proper region is selected.However,two points should be noticed:(1)The method can only give the annual occurrence rate in a seismicity system and estimate the whole situation of the system.(2)When there is a very large earthquake in and near the period in which the microseismicity data are applied,the actual occurrence rate of the system,including this larger earthquake,cannot be obtained by this method.
文摘The Olympic stadiums, at a cost of billions of dollars, should be well utilized after the Beijing Olympic Games Now that the bell of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is soon to ring, people at home and abroad
文摘Technological advances,innovation and the new industry 4.0 paradigm guide Distribution System Operators towards a competitive market that requires the articulation of flexible demand response systems.The lack of measurement and standardization systems in the industry process chain in developing countries prevents the penetration of demand management models,generating inefficiency in the analysis and processing of informa-tion to validate the flexibility potential that large consumers can contribute to the network operator.In this sense,the research uses as input variables the energy and power of the load profile provided by the utility energy meter to obtain the disaggregated forecast in quarter-hour intervals in 4-time windows validated through metrics and its results evaluated by the RMS error to get the total error generated by the methodology with the appli-cation of Machine Learning and Big Data techniques in the Python computational tool through Combinatorial Disaggregation Optimization and Factorial Hidden Markov models.
文摘A measuring method of the echo reduction of passive materials by using the time reversal(TR) technique is presented. To measure the echo reduction of a sample with this approach, the received signals are firstly focused according to the TR theory. Then, the sample is removed and the TR processing is again employed to realize the focus of the received signal.Finally, the echo reduction of the sample is evaluated with these focusing signals. Besides, to calibrate the measured echo reduction via the TR technique, a standard sample is employed to measure a constant coefficient that only depends on the measurement environment. An aluminum plate sample and a steel plate sample with the same size of 1.1 mxl.O m x0.005 m axe tested in a wave guide tank. The experimental results show that the calibrated values are well consistent with theoretical results under the free field at the measured frequency range of0.5-20 kHz. The relative errors of all the measured values are less than 10% and the values of the expanded uncertainty are less than 1.5 dB. The TR processing focuses the energy in spatial domain and temporal domain, so it can be used to measure the echo reduction of passive materials in the environments with reflections induced by boundaries and low frequency sources.
基金This work has based on the research supported in part by“the National Research Foundation”of South Africa for the grant,Unique Grant No,107541,Department of Higher Education and Training Research Department Grant(DHET-RDG)and Centre for Energy and Electric Power,Tshwane University of Technology(TUT),South Africa.
文摘Advancements in computational technologies for residential energy management have become widespread due to increased energy usage and peak demand in households.Controlled switching of appliances during peak periods for energy reduction is one of such solutions.However,this technique may constrict the consumer’s flexibility to utilize desired appliances to fulfil their needs.This study proposes a peak load control technique based on an end-use appliance prioritization and event detection algorithm.A noteworthy feature of the technique is the users’preferred appliance(UPA),which provides the occupants with the flexibility to use any electric load to fulfill their needs at any time whether peak demand control has been initiated or not.Furthermore,to address the challenging issue around the uncertain and varying nature of the users’energy usage pattern,an empirical bottom-up approach is adopted to characterize the consumers’diverse end-use behavior.The results obtained show good performance in terms of peak demand and energy consumption reduction,with 3%to 20%and at least 14.05%in demand reduction for time of use(ToU)periods and energy savings,respectively.These offer a further perspective on demand side management,affording load users a new cost-saving energy usage pattern.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2011AAXXX2035)the Third Phase of Innovative Engineering Projects Foundation of the Changchun Institute of Optics,Fine Mechanics and Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.065X32CN60)
文摘The traditional space target detection methods mainly use the spatial characteristics of the star map to detect the targets, which can not make full use of the time domain information. This paper presents a new space moving target detection method based on time domain features. We firstly construct the time spectral data of star map, then analyze the time domain features of the main objects(target, stars and the background) in star maps, finally detect the moving targets using single pulse feature of the time domain signal. The real star map target detection experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively detect the trajectory of moving targets in the star map sequence, and the detection probability achieves 99% when the false alarm rate is about 8×10^(-5), which outperforms those of compared algorithms.
文摘When linear regressive models such as AR or ARMA model are used for fitting and predicting climatic time series,results are often not sufficiently good because nonlinear variations in the time series.In this paper, a nonlinear self-exciting threshold autoregressive(SETAR)model is applied to modeling and predicting the time series of flood/drought runs in Beijing,which were derived from the graded historical flood/drought records in the last 511 years(1470—1980).The results show that the modeling and predicting with the SETAR model are much better than that of the AR model.The latter can predict the flood/drought runs with a length only less than two years,while the formal can predict more than three-year length runs.This may be due to the fact that the SETAR model can renew the model according to the run-turning points in the process of predic- tion,though the time series is nonstationary.