Computing large deviation prefactors of stochastic dynamical systems based on machine learning

We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.

LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR TOP EIGENVALUES OFβ-JACOBI ENSEMBLES AT SCALING TEMPERATURES

Letλ=(λ_(1),…,λ_(n))beβ-Jacobi ensembles with parameters p_(1),p_(2),n andβ,withβvarying with n.Set■.Suppose that■and 0≤σγ<1.We offer the large deviation for p_(1)+p_(2)/p_(1)■λ_(i)whenγ>0 via the large deviation of the corresponding empirical measure and via a direct estimate,respectively,whenγ=0.

A novel lattice model integrating the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux under V2X environment

A novel lattice hydrodynamic model is proposed by integrating the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux under vehicle to X(V2X) environment. According to the theoretical analysis, the stability conditions and the mKdV equations affected by the cooperative deviation of traffic information are explored. And the density wave, hysteresis loop and energy consumption of the traffic flow have been investigated via numerical simulation. The results indicate that the cooperative deviation of density and optimal flux can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion. More importantly, our new consideration can reduce fuel consumption and exhaust emission under the V2X environment.

Assessment of Deviation in Quality of Steel Reinforcing Bars Used in Some Building Sites in Cameroon

The present work evaluated the deviations in the quality of steel reinforcing bars in terms of markings, diameter, yield strength and ductility in order to facilitate the drawing up of a yield strength value for the Cameroon National Annex to Eurocode 2. The methodology of the work started with the collection of steel samples from various active building project sites in four different towns viz: Bamenda, Douala, Maroua and Yaoundé and testing their tensile strength and elongation using a Universal Testing Machine and also carrying out the bending test. Results show that bars without marked manufacturer’s name fell all the tests. Other results show that 52% of all the steel had yield stresses below 400 Mpa and the highest deviation in the yield strengths was 22.50%. The study recommends that properly marked grade 500 steel bars should be adopted in the Cameroon national annex to Eurocode 2.

A LARGE DEVIATION PRINCIPLE FOR THE STOCHASTIC GENERALIZED GINZBURG-LANDAU EQUATION DRIVEN BY JUMP NOISE

In this paper,we establish a large deviation principle for the stochastic generalized Ginzburg-Landau equation driven by jump noise.The main difficulties come from the highly non-linear coefficient and the jump noise.Here,we adopt a new sufficient condition for the weak convergence criterion of the large deviation principle,which was initially proposed by Matoussi,Sabbagh and Zhang(2021).

Application Research of an Intelligent Detection Algorithm for Vehicle Trajectory Route Deviation

In the vehicle trajectory application system, it is often necessary to detect whether the vehicle deviates from the specified route. Trajectory planning in the traditional route deviation detection is defined by the driver through the mobile phone navigation software, which plays a more auxiliary driving role. This paper presents a method of vehicle trajectory deviation detection. Firstly, the manager customizes the trajectory planning and then uses big data technologies to match the deviation between the trajectory planning and the vehicle trajectory. Finally, it achieves the supervisory function of the manager on the vehicle track route in real-time. The results show that this method could detect the vehicle trajectory deviation quickly and accurately, and has practical application value.

Effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel simulations: A case study in the Middle Yangtze River

Froude similitude and friction similitude are the two crucial similarity conditions that are often used in physical-scale modeling of rivers.However,models often deviate from Froude similitude when dealing with real-world situations.This study developed several fixed-bed river models with various curvatures to determine the effect of Froude similitude deviation on curved channel modeling.Models were constructed according to the characteristics of the Middle Yangtze River.Differences in longitudinal slope,transverse slope,and main stream line location were measured by varying Froude similitude deviation.The deviations of longitudinal slope and velocity were negligible because friction similitude was accounted for.The transverse slope varied significantly with the Froude similitude deviation,and the main stream line varied with the curvature and Froude similitude deviation.Formulae were derived to estimate the slope deviation.These analyses helped to clarify the feasibility of the method of Froude similitude deviation for curved channels.

Modified inferior oblique anterior transposition for dissociated vertical deviation combined with superior oblique palsy:A case report

BACKGROUND Inferior oblique anterior transposition(IOAT)has emerged as an effective surgery in the management of dissociated vertical deviation(DVD)combined with superior oblique palsy(SOP).Traditional IOAT usually provides satisfactory primary position alignment and simultaneously restricts the superior floating phenomenon.However,it also increases the risk of the anti-elevation syndrome and narrowing of the palpebral fissure in straight-ahead gaze,especially after the unilateral operation.CASE SUMMARY We report the outcomes of the modified unilateral IOAT in two patients with unilateral DVD combined with SOP.The anterior-nasal fibers of the inferior oblique muscle were attached at 9 mm posterior to the corneal limbus along the temporal board of the inferior rectus muscle,the other fibers were attached a further 5 mm temporal to the anterior-nasal fibers.Postoperatively,both hypertropia and floating were improved,and no obvious complications occurred.CONCLUSION In these cases,the modified unilateral IOAT was an effective and safe surgical method for treating DVD with SOP.

金属板材大深宽比微沟槽特征辊压成形工艺分析

提出一种新型的辊压成形的工艺,对主辅成形辊轮的轮廓设计提出新的设计思路,并对0.1 mm的厚度TA1钛板微沟槽(深度2.5 mm,深宽比86.2%)进行辊压成形的试验,将最大减薄率、最大深度偏差作为评价指标,验证工艺的合理性与科学性。结果表明:辅助成形辊轮在满足挠度(<0.02 mm)的前提下,应尽可能减少辅助成形辊轮的特征数,使其在辊压过程中板材折弯变形而非拉延,其最大减薄率为小于0.4%,深度偏度小于0.5%,配合冲压模具可以对大深宽比的微沟槽成形,而不受拔模角度的影响,此新型成形工艺可以促进金属板材微沟槽产品的产业化。

The Inheritance and Deviation of the Subjective Construction“You Bei X Dao(有被X到)”

Sentence“bei”(“被”字句)and“bei xx”(被xx)provide syntactic and semantic basis for the generation of the construction“You Bei X Dao(有被x到)”.They are in a continuum and have family similarity.The sentence“bei”is a typical member,while“bei xx”is an atypical member.Because the construction“You Bei X Dao”has a single function and less attention,it is at the edge of the continuum and is a marginal member.However,it has certain research value in the inheritance and innovation of“bei”and“bei xx”.

面向对象技术的智能插秧机控制系统设计研究

以插秧机智能控制系统为研究对象,基于面向控制对象技术设计一种无人驾驶插秧机智能控制系统,并在水泥路面和水田两种不同环境中对插秧机进行性能试验测试。试验结果表明:在水泥路面上插秧机行进过程最大横向偏差小于50mm,最大航向偏差小于2°;在水田内插秧机行进过程最大横向偏差小于60mm,最大航向偏差小于3°,表明智能控制系统在使用过程中具有较高的可靠性和稳定性。

2000—2020年非洲耕地资源时空格局变化分析

非洲地区面临严重的粮食安全问题,研究其耕地资源时空格局变化对于保障非洲粮食安全具有重要意义.基于2000—2020年间联合国粮农组织的统计数据,通过重心迁移、标准差椭圆及局部空间自相关等方法对非洲耕地资源时空格局的变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:1)非洲耕地整体数量呈稳定上升趋势,20年间耕地面积增加了6321.92万hm^(2),增长率为53.44%,但不同国家间存在差异;2)非洲耕地在几何中心以北区域分布较多,耕地重心迁移方向先向东北后转向偏西方向,移动总距离为111.86 km,偏移速率先快后慢,从前5年的平均10.27 km/a降至后15年的平均4.00 km/a左右;3)非洲耕地分布呈西北—东南向,20年来标准差椭圆转角有向水平方向倒伏趋势,椭圆面积不断缩小,向心性不断增强;4)非洲耕地分布集聚主要出现在西非的尼日尔和尼日利亚,异常区为南非及贝宁.

Influence of highway space alignment continuous degradation in 3- dimensional space on autonomous vehicle trajectory deviation based on PreScan simulation

The advent of autonomous vehicles(AVs)is expected to transform the current transportation system into a safe and reliable one.The existing infrastructures,operational criteria,and design method were developed to meet the requirements of human drivers.However,previous studies have shown that in the traditional horizontal and vertical combined design methods,where the two-dimensional alignment elements change,there are varying changes in curvature and torsion,which cause the continuous degradation of the spatial curve and torsion.This continuous degradation will inevitably cause changes in the trajectory of Autonomous Vehicles(AVs),thereby affecting driving safety.Therefore,studying the characteristics of autonomous vehicles trajectory deviation has theoretical significance for optimizing highway alignment safety design.Driving simulation tests were performed by using PreScan and Simulink to calibrate the lateral deviation.A machine learning approach called the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)algorithm was implemented to build a model and express the relationship between space alignment parameters and lane deviation.The results showed that the AV’s driving trajectory is significantly affected by the space alignment factors when the vehicle is driving in the inner lane,the downhill section,and the left-turn section.These findings will provide a novel perspective for road safety research based on autonomous vehicle driving trajectories.

孤岛微电网多虚拟同步发电机频率无差协调控制策略

传统虚拟同步发电机的频率控制为有差控制,且虚拟惯量的引入使得虚拟同步发电机呈现二阶振荡特性,导致孤岛微电网多虚拟同步发电机并联系统在受到负荷扰动时面临频率偏移和有功超调的问题。针对此,提出了一种多虚拟同步发电机频率无差协调控制方法。该方法包含了兼具有功精确分配的频率无差调节控制和阻尼改进控制两部分,通过利用母线频率全局一致的“通信”效果,以分散式的形式协调系统内各台虚拟同步发电机,可主动消除微电网频率稳态偏差且实现各台虚拟同步发电机按照容量承担负荷有功功率,并抑制系统的有功超调。最后,通过仿真和实验验证了所提控制方法的有效性。

2022年8月四川盆地持续性极端高温特征及不同模式预报误差分析

本文基于2022年8月四川盆地104站逐时温度、降水数据和1971—2021年历史同期数据,及EC、CMA-GFS、CMA-MESO模式的2 m气温预报等数据,运用统计学相关方法分析了此次极端高温过程的特征及预报误差。结果表明:①2022年8月四川盆地极端高温过程范围大、强度强、持续时间长,有87.5%站最高气温超过该站历史同期极值,且高温最强盛时段较历史同期明显推后。②2022年8月最高气温分布为东高西低,最高气温与历史同期极值差分布则相反,其中最高气温随站点海拔增大而减小,而极值差则随站点海拔先增大再减小。另外,受热岛效应影响,极值差大值站点主要集中在龙泉山脉附近。③高温期间,最高、最低气温平均值高、距平大,且累计降水量和雨日数也明显低于历史同期。④相较而言,EC模式的预报优势主要在盆地低海拔地区。而CMA-MESO模式在盆地周边陡峭地形区域的平均绝对误差则更小。另外,EC模式预报的最高气温峰值出现时间更接近于实况,而CMA-MESO模式预报高温持续日数更接近实况。

光学角规在透镜中心偏测量仪校准中的应用

介绍了透镜中心偏测量仪的校准现状,设计使用光学角规对透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管的示值误差进行校准。通过分析光学角规的基本原理,偏向角的定义,偏向角和楔角的转换关系,详细说明如何选择光学角规以及如何使用光学角规实现透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管示值误差的校准与溯源。选用标称值分别为2′与5′,并经过国家计量院溯源的一等光学角规,对1台单光路设备和1台双光路设备进行校准,测量重复性均优于0.1″,不确定度达到0.11″。结果表明,光学角规可以有效解决高精度透镜中心偏测量仪自准直光管示值误差的校准溯源问题。

可见光波段多路激光合束及闭环校正技术研究

为了实现可见光波段多路不同波长激光的周期性闭环校正,设计了一种具有光束指向和位置偏差独立监测与调节的激光合束系统。首先,根据系统的应用需求,提出了合束系统的设计指标与整体合束方案。然后,在合束方案的基础上,建立了合束系统的光束控制模型,并通过数值仿真得到了合束系统光束控制的解算方法。闭环合束系统通过光束指向和位置监测装置分别实现合束激光指向偏差与位置偏差的独立监测,并根据监测结果进行光束调节装置控制量的解算;进而通过两维摆镜和一维平移台分别实现光束指向和位置偏差的独立高效调节。最后,采用两路不同波长的激光束,配合光束监测与调节装置,搭建了闭环合束模拟实验平台,对周期性闭环合束系统的合束效果进行了验证。实验结果表明:在长时间的工作过程中,两路激光均实现了与基准光路的精密合束,合束指向精度优于±7μrad,位置精度优于±0.84 mm。本研究所组建的激光合束系统不仅具有合束精度高、校正速度快、光路扩展性强的优势,而且可实现激光束的周期性闭环校正,能够有效保证合束激光的长期工作稳定性。

顾及城市发展和生态保护均衡的宜昌市生境质量多情景模拟研究

城市发展过程中不同的发展方向与生态保护目标往往会产生不同的矛盾冲突,通过均衡城市发展和生态保护之间的关系,能够促进城市发展和生态保护的耦合协调。以宜昌市为研究对象,耦合PLUS—InVEST模型并结合标准差椭圆分析,以2020年土地利用现状数据为基础,模拟自然发展、经济发展以及生态保护3种情景下2040年宜昌市生境质量变化情况。研究结果表明:1)2000—2020年宜昌市主要发生变化的地类为耕地、林地以及建设用地,其中林地与耕地为主要的转出地类,建设用地为主要的转入地类;2)在不同模拟情景下,建设用地扩张方向均由西南向东北收缩,城市扩张强度减缓,建设用地扩张强度重心并开始由东向西进行迁徙;3)在自然发展和经济发展情景下,宜昌市生境质量在未来均呈现衰退的趋势,而在生态保护情景下,宜昌市生境质量有所恢复。通过模拟未来不同政策下土地利用方式改变来反映宜昌市生境质量变化情况,为均衡城市发展与生态保护产生的矛盾和冲突有着重要意义。

基于频率匹配的EC模式定量降水偏差订正

为了提升模式预报效果,文章利用四川盆地南部20182020年59月的EC模式降水预报资料和实况降水资料,采用频率匹配的方法对EC模式的24 h累计降水进行订正、分析和检验。结果表明当降水阈值小于25.0 mm时,EC模式定量降水预报存在明显湿偏差,反之存在弱干偏差。研究结果为提升相关区域的降水预报能力提供支持。

超深井工程理论与技术若干研究进展及发展建议

超深井工程受到高温高压、复杂地层、超长井眼和腐蚀介质等多重因素约束,其安全高效作业面临全方位的技术挑战。为此,针对超深井工程的安全高效设计控制问题,介绍了该工程的发展概况与技术特点;选取井眼轨迹预测与防斜打快、钻柱振动特性分析与减振控制、钻井延伸极限预测与设计控制,以及套管失效风险评估与安全控制等几个重要理论与技术问题,介绍了国内外的相关研究进展及笔者团队的最新研究成果;然后,针对超深井工程提出了若干创新发展建议。研究结果表明,超深井工程理论与技术的发展整体呈现出体系化、科学化、多学科交叉、地质与工程一体化等基本特点。建议在基础理论问题、关键核心技术、技术协同关系、技术迭代模式和多学科交叉融合等方面加强创新研究,以持续推进超深井工程基础理论与关键技术创新发展。