Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.

Conversion of Kinetic Energy from Synoptic Scale Disturbance to Low-Frequency Fluctuation over the Yangtze River Valley in the Summers of 1997 and 1999

In order to investigate the conversion of kinetic energy from a synoptic scale disturbance （SSD; period≤seven days） to a low-frequency fluctuation （LFF; period〉seven days）, the budget equation of the LFF kinetic energy is derived. The energy conversion is then calculated and analyzed for the summers of 1997 and 1999. The results show that the energy conversion from the SSD to the LFF is obviously enhanced in the middle and lower troposphere during the heavy rainfall, suggesting this to be one of mechanisms inducing the heavy rainfall, although the local LFF kinetic energy may not be enhanced.

Water Vapor Transport around the Tibetan Plateau and Its Effect on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley

The water vapor transport around the Tibetan Plateau（TP） and its effect on the rainfall in the Yangtze River valley（YRV） in summer are investigated by decomposing the moisture transport into rotational and divergent components.Based on the ERA-Interim and PREC/L（Precipitation Reconstruction over Land） data from 1985 to 2014,the vertically integrated features of the two components are examined.The results show that the divergent part dominates the western TP while the rotational part dominates the rest of the TP,implying that moisture may be mostly locally gathered in the western TP but could be advected to/from elsewhere over the rest of the TP.The divergent and rotational moisture fluxes exhibit great temporal variability along the southern periphery of the TP,showing sensitivity of water vapor to the steep topography there.Correlation analysis reveals that it is over the southeastern corner of the TP and to its south that a significant correlation between rotational zonal moisture transport and summer rainfall in the YRV appears,suggesting that the southeastern corner of the TP may serve as a moisture transport bridge between the South Asian（Indian） monsoon and the East Asian monsoon.Further composite analysis indicates that anomalous eastward（westward） zonal water vapor transport from the South Asian monsoon via the southeastern corner of the TP favors more（less） precipitation in the YRV in summer.