The value of a statistical life(VSL)is a crucial tool for monetizing health impacts.To explore the VSL in China,this study examines people’s willingness to pay(WTP)to reduce death risk from air pollution in six repre...The value of a statistical life(VSL)is a crucial tool for monetizing health impacts.To explore the VSL in China,this study examines people’s willingness to pay(WTP)to reduce death risk from air pollution in six representative cities in China based on face-to-face contingent valuation interviews(n=3936)from March 7,2019 to September 30,2019.The results reveal that the WTP varied from CNY 455 to 763 in 2019(USD 66-111),corresponding to a VSL range of CNY 3.79-6.36 million(USD 549395-921940).The VSL in China in 2019 is estimated to be CNY 4.76 million(USD 689659).The statistics indicate that monthly expenditure levels,environmental concerns,risk attitudes,and assumed market acceptance,which have seldom been dis‐cussed in previous studies,significantly impact WTP and VSL.These findings will serve as a reference for ana‐lyzing mortality risk reduction benefits in future research and for policymaking.展开更多
In this study, fatigue tests under different R ratios were conducted on the AZ61 Mg alloy to investigate its fatigue lifetimes and fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior. The fracture surface of the failed specimens was ...In this study, fatigue tests under different R ratios were conducted on the AZ61 Mg alloy to investigate its fatigue lifetimes and fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior. The fracture surface of the failed specimens was investigated using a scanning electron microscope to study the size of the intermetallic compounds from which the pioneer fatigue crack initiated and led to the final failure of the specimen. To determine the maximum size of the intermetallic compounds existing within the cross section of the specimen at higher risk, Gumbel’s extreme-value statistics were utilized. In the present study, the intermetallic compounds contained within the specimen were assumed to be the initial cracks existing in the material before the fatigue tests. A modified linear elastic fracture-mechanics parameter, M, proposed by McEvily et al., was used to analyze the short FCG behavior under different stress ratios, R. The relation between the rate of FCG and M parameter was found to be useful and appropriate for predicting the fatigue lifetimes under different R ratios. Moreover, the probabilistic stress-fatigue life (P-S-N) curve of the material under different R ratios could be predicted with this method, which utilizes both the FCG law and a statistical distribution of sizes of the most dangerous intermetallic compounds. The evaluated results were in good agreement with the experimental ones. This correspondence indicates that the estimation method proposed in the present study is effective for evaluation of the probabilistic stress-fatigue life (P-S-N) curve of the material under different R ratios.展开更多
This paper presents a survey-based economic evaluation of security measures protecting against the risk of aviation terrorism. A sample of Norwegians were asked to state their choices between different air travel al-t...This paper presents a survey-based economic evaluation of security measures protecting against the risk of aviation terrorism. A sample of Norwegians were asked to state their choices between different air travel al-ternatives, i.e. travel time, trip costs, fatalities in terrorist acts on air transport and type of passenger screen-ing. Screening was specified as either the current uniform screening or a new risk-based screening in which passengers are divided into three groups: high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk. Respondents were informed that risk-based screening implied they would have to identify themselves using a biometric identity card and that those not qualifying as low-risk passengers would be checked with body scanners. Our results indicate that the sampled passengers were very concerned about privacy. Maintaining existing uniform screening was preferred to a new risk-based screening system, even though risk-based screening was presented as poten-tially preventing future terrorist fatalities.展开更多
It has been well documented that heatwaves are linked to elevated mortality and morbidity.However,the selection of optimal heatwave definitions for subsequent risk assessment has been inconsistent and there is no full...It has been well documented that heatwaves are linked to elevated mortality and morbidity.However,the selection of optimal heatwave definitions for subsequent risk assessment has been inconsistent and there is no full picture of the effects of heatwaves with different intensities on economic losses due to mortality,which can provide important insights for public health considerations.Hence,we used a two-stage time series analysis,combined with values of statistical life(VsL)based on the value of a statistical life year to assess the economic burden of deaths associated with heatwaves of different intensities and durations and to identify the vulnerable populations and regions.We further conducted stratified analyses by age,sex,and region.We found 2.9%(95%CI:0.0%,6.5%)-20.0%(95%CI:2.9%,34.2%)of VsL were attributable to heatwaves,corresponding to attributable economic losses(AELs)of 2.20(95%CI:0.32,3.77)-4.77(95%CI:1.53,7.63)billion CNY.The economic burden of death was most sensitive to heatwave H99P_2D(99th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days),while H97.5P_2D(97.5th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days)caused the highest attributable economic losses.Females and elderly people aged≥65 years were more sensitive.The AELs in the temperate zone and northern regions were larger than those in subtropical zone and southern regions during relatively low-intensity heatwaves,respectively.By contrast,the AELs in subtropical zone and southern regions were relatively higher than those in temperate zone and northern regions during relatively high-intensity heatwaves,respectively.The AELs were larger in urban areas than in rural areas.Tailored intervention strategies,primarily focusing on vulnerable populations and regions,should be formulated to reduce the economic loss due to heatwaves in the context of climate change.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun‐dation of China[Grant No.71773061].
文摘The value of a statistical life(VSL)is a crucial tool for monetizing health impacts.To explore the VSL in China,this study examines people’s willingness to pay(WTP)to reduce death risk from air pollution in six representative cities in China based on face-to-face contingent valuation interviews(n=3936)from March 7,2019 to September 30,2019.The results reveal that the WTP varied from CNY 455 to 763 in 2019(USD 66-111),corresponding to a VSL range of CNY 3.79-6.36 million(USD 549395-921940).The VSL in China in 2019 is estimated to be CNY 4.76 million(USD 689659).The statistics indicate that monthly expenditure levels,environmental concerns,risk attitudes,and assumed market acceptance,which have seldom been dis‐cussed in previous studies,significantly impact WTP and VSL.These findings will serve as a reference for ana‐lyzing mortality risk reduction benefits in future research and for policymaking.
文摘In this study, fatigue tests under different R ratios were conducted on the AZ61 Mg alloy to investigate its fatigue lifetimes and fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior. The fracture surface of the failed specimens was investigated using a scanning electron microscope to study the size of the intermetallic compounds from which the pioneer fatigue crack initiated and led to the final failure of the specimen. To determine the maximum size of the intermetallic compounds existing within the cross section of the specimen at higher risk, Gumbel’s extreme-value statistics were utilized. In the present study, the intermetallic compounds contained within the specimen were assumed to be the initial cracks existing in the material before the fatigue tests. A modified linear elastic fracture-mechanics parameter, M, proposed by McEvily et al., was used to analyze the short FCG behavior under different stress ratios, R. The relation between the rate of FCG and M parameter was found to be useful and appropriate for predicting the fatigue lifetimes under different R ratios. Moreover, the probabilistic stress-fatigue life (P-S-N) curve of the material under different R ratios could be predicted with this method, which utilizes both the FCG law and a statistical distribution of sizes of the most dangerous intermetallic compounds. The evaluated results were in good agreement with the experimental ones. This correspondence indicates that the estimation method proposed in the present study is effective for evaluation of the probabilistic stress-fatigue life (P-S-N) curve of the material under different R ratios.
基金This study was funded by the Research Council of Norway through the project“Coping with the new risks:Understanding,organization and economics”(186774),under the programme“Risk and Safety in Transport”(RISIT).
文摘This paper presents a survey-based economic evaluation of security measures protecting against the risk of aviation terrorism. A sample of Norwegians were asked to state their choices between different air travel al-ternatives, i.e. travel time, trip costs, fatalities in terrorist acts on air transport and type of passenger screen-ing. Screening was specified as either the current uniform screening or a new risk-based screening in which passengers are divided into three groups: high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk. Respondents were informed that risk-based screening implied they would have to identify themselves using a biometric identity card and that those not qualifying as low-risk passengers would be checked with body scanners. Our results indicate that the sampled passengers were very concerned about privacy. Maintaining existing uniform screening was preferred to a new risk-based screening system, even though risk-based screening was presented as poten-tially preventing future terrorist fatalities.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program (2017FY101201)from Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China.
文摘It has been well documented that heatwaves are linked to elevated mortality and morbidity.However,the selection of optimal heatwave definitions for subsequent risk assessment has been inconsistent and there is no full picture of the effects of heatwaves with different intensities on economic losses due to mortality,which can provide important insights for public health considerations.Hence,we used a two-stage time series analysis,combined with values of statistical life(VsL)based on the value of a statistical life year to assess the economic burden of deaths associated with heatwaves of different intensities and durations and to identify the vulnerable populations and regions.We further conducted stratified analyses by age,sex,and region.We found 2.9%(95%CI:0.0%,6.5%)-20.0%(95%CI:2.9%,34.2%)of VsL were attributable to heatwaves,corresponding to attributable economic losses(AELs)of 2.20(95%CI:0.32,3.77)-4.77(95%CI:1.53,7.63)billion CNY.The economic burden of death was most sensitive to heatwave H99P_2D(99th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days),while H97.5P_2D(97.5th percentile,at last 2 consecutive days)caused the highest attributable economic losses.Females and elderly people aged≥65 years were more sensitive.The AELs in the temperate zone and northern regions were larger than those in subtropical zone and southern regions during relatively low-intensity heatwaves,respectively.By contrast,the AELs in subtropical zone and southern regions were relatively higher than those in temperate zone and northern regions during relatively high-intensity heatwaves,respectively.The AELs were larger in urban areas than in rural areas.Tailored intervention strategies,primarily focusing on vulnerable populations and regions,should be formulated to reduce the economic loss due to heatwaves in the context of climate change.
