Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method

International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.

Fuzzy logic applied to value of information assessment in oil and gas projects

The concept of value of information(VOI)has been widely used in the oil industry when making decisions on the acquisition of new data sets for the development and operation of oil fields.The classical approach to VOI assumes that the outcome of the data acquisition process produces crisp values,which are uniquely mapped onto one of the deterministic reservoir models representing the subsurface variability.However,subsurface reservoir data are not always crisp;it can also be fuzzy and may correspond to various reservoir models to different degrees.The classical approach to VOI may not,therefore,lead to the best decision with regard to the need to acquire new data.Fuzzy logic,introduced in the 1960 s as an alternative to the classical logic,is able to manage the uncertainty associated with the fuzziness of the data.In this paper,both classical and fuzzy theoretical formulations for VOI are developed and contrasted using inherently vague data.A case study,which is consistent with the future development of an oil reservoir,is used to compare the application of both approaches to the estimation of VOI.The results of the VOI process show that when the fuzzy nature of the data is included in the assessment,the value of the data decreases.In this case study,the results of the assessment using crisp data and fuzzy data change the decision from"acquire"the additional data(in the former)to"do not acquire"the additional data(in the latter).In general,different decisions are reached,depending on whether the fuzzy nature of the data is considered during the evaluation.The implications of these results are significant in a domain such as the oil and gas industry(where investments are huge).This work strongly suggests the need to define the data as crisp or fuzzy for use in VOI,prior to implementing the assessment to select and define the right approach.

Features of Sandy Debris Flows of the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin and Its Oil and Gas Exploration Significance

Sandy debris flow is a new genetic type of sand bodies,which has gained much attention in recent years and its corresponding theory is proved to be a significant improvement and even partial denial to the 'Bouma Sequence' and 'turbidite fan' deep-water sedimentary theories to some point. Oil exploration researchers are highly concerned with sandy debris flows for its key role in controlling oil and gas accumulation processes.In this article,by applying sandy debris flows theory and combining a lot work of core,outcrop observation and analysis plus seismic profile interpretation,we recognized three types of sedimentary gravity flows that are sandy debris flows,classic turbidites and slumping rocks in chang-6 member of Yanchang Formation in the deep-water area of central Ordos Basin.Among the three types,the sandy debris flows are the most prominent and possesses the best oil bearing conditions.On the contrary,the classic turbidites formed by turbidity currents are limited in distribution;therefore,previous Yanchang Formation deep-water sedimentary studies have exaggerated the importance of turbidite currents deposition.Further study showed that the area distribution of deep water gravity flow sand bodies in Yanchang Formation were controlled by the slope of the deep-water deposits and the flows had vast distribution,huge depth and prevalent advantages for oil forming,which make it one of the most favorable new areas for Ordos Basin prospecting.

Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021

By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.

State of the Art and Emerging Trends in Operations and Maintenance of Offshore Oil and Gas Production Facilities:Some Experiences and Observations

Plant maintenance has been a discipline that has gradually evolved with the industrial revolution. For quite some time, it has been a ＂necessary evil＂ in production, manufacturing, and process settings. The changing business needs and industrial conditions have had various impacts on the maintenance process, particularly over the last few years. While some industries have inherent difficulties seeing what maintenance is all about, others have begun to add more flavor to the organizational maintenance practices. This article brings an overview of developments within the offshore oil and gas production sector.

Innovation and practice of petroleum engineering synergetic management for the development of difficult-to-produce reserves

Due to engineering technology and development costs,a considerable amount of proven oil and gas resources in China are difficult to develop,becoming reserves difficult to produce.Based on the successful development of some domestic oil and gas reserves difficult to recover,this article summarizes the"four in one"petroleum engineering synergetic management model to promote the effective development of these reserves.This model draws on the essence of management theories,such as system theory,cybernetics and synergetic theory,and proposes the development idea of value creating and sharing for this type of reserves.By adopting the new management method of mechanism synergy,speciality synergy,process synergy and industrial chain synergy,this model effectively overcomes the decentralization of management responsibility,different management objectives,great risks of engineering and technological innovation,and the large number of uncertain factors in project construction,and can stimulate the vitality and power of active coordination of project participants,to effectively realize the synergetic innovation of engineering technology and synergetic cost reduction of the whole chain,reduction of the balanced oil price of the project,and dispersion of the project investment risk.By adopting this model,a large proportion of difficult-to-produce reserves have been liberated,realizing the effective utilization of the difficult-to-produce oil and gas resources,and making the reserves an important supplement to ensure national energy security.

The Accounting and Economic Effects of Currency Translation Standards： AASB 1012 vs. AASB 121

This paper1 empirically examines the accounting and the economic effects of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the oil and gas industry under the former and the current translation accounting standards in Australia. Due to the unique features of the oil and gas industry and based on an analysis of the former standard-Australian Accounting Standards Board （AASB） 1012, the authors predict that a positive translation adjustment （the accounting effect） is associated with a loss, instead of a creation of the firm value （the economic effect） under AASB 1012. The authors also predict that the new standard AASB 121, adapted from the International Accounting Standard （IAS） 21 with modifications, will report translation adjustments that are consistent with the economic effects. By using Australia-based multinational oil and gas firms, the authors find that translation adjustments under AASB 1012 are inversely associated with firm value and that the relationship changes to a positive one under AASB 121. This study concludes that the new standard has the potential to improve the quality of the translation accounting information.

以资产价值创造为中心的国际石油公司多维绩效管理体系研究

在高质量发展的时代背景下,全面加强预算绩效管理已经成为深化预算制度改革的重点内容。中国企业绩效管理发展历程分为人事考评、绩效考核、绩效管理、战略绩效管理、价值绩效管理这5个阶段。为了发挥出绩效管理应该具有的价值创造导向作用,本文提出一套新的多维绩效管理体系,通过在资产单元层面建立业务、计划、指标3个维度的评价描述,确定资产单元在短、中、长期的经营重点任务、关键指标和量化目标,构建以资产价值创造为中心的价值绩效管理体系。在某海外项目和公司总部两个层级的应用实例表明,该方法能统筹战略执行和财务业绩,有利于公司价值投资增长,实现用增量带存量、向管理要效益的高质量发展之路。

论石油天然气资产减值的测试

石油天然气资产价值具有不确定性,按照资产的定义确认、计量、报告油气资产价值是提高石油公司会计信息质量的重要方面。在会计核算中,石油天然气资产减值的测试一直是难以解决的问题,寻求一种合适的测试方法也一直是会计理论和实务界探索的目标。通过对油气资产的性质、构成及特征的分析,借鉴国际、国内会计准则的相关计量规范,提出了油气资产测试应以现金产出单元作为测试基础,以在用价值作为计量标准,以未来现金流量现值的计算作为测试方法的观点。以此为依据,结合对油气资产未来收益及成本的具体构成内容分析,建立了油气资产未来现金流量测算的计算模型,并为规范我国油气资产减值会计核算,提出了界定油气资产范围、引入现金产出单元对油气资产进行计量和评价、制定具体的油气资产减值判断标准、规范油气资产会计信息披露方式和内容等建议,以期有助于完善我国相关会计核算规范和对实务工作有所参考。

油气储量资产交易价值评估方法及案例剖析

国外储量资产交易价值评估方法较为成熟,分为4类:收入预测法、经验估算法、对比销售法、勘查费用法。按照国际上的储量分类体系,储量及资源分为3级:储量(P)、基本储量(C)、远景资源量(U)。国际油气资产交易以P为主,也有少量的C。结合国内外不同的储量定义及分类分级方法,根据油气勘探开发阶段和油气储量可靠程度,提出了剩余经济可采储量适合作为国内油气储量资产交易价值评估基数的建议。推荐了不同阶段、不同储量级别的油气储量资产交易价值评估方法。在预探阶段,若仅发现资源量或预测储量,可采用勘查费用法、对比销售法等估算油气储量资产交易价值。在油气藏评价阶段,可采用对比销售法及经验估算法。在开发阶段,通常以收入预测法即净现值法(NPV)为主进行评价。以美国的埃尔克希尔斯(Elk Hills)油田权益储量的案例进行剖析,对油价和成本的不同上涨与下跌趋势的预测,会较大程度地影响油气储量资产交易价值评估。

油气田资产减值测试方法研究

以油气田特有的耗竭性矿业资产为对象 ,针对我国油气田企业实施《企业会计制度》过程中遇到的现实问题 ,结合国际会计准则和美国第 19号财务会计准则的要求 ,对矿业资产 (或矿产 )的减损或减值问题进行了探讨。认为 :油气田企业的资产价值须进行整体评估 ,进而进行最高限额测试 ,对于上市石油公司 ,须披露油气储量数量信息和价值信息 。

油气储量资产与油气资产辨析及其价值计量研究

从会计实务及理论上辨析油气储量资产与油气资产内涵。油气储量资产的关键问题是其历史成本与价值的巨大差异性,公允价值计量是提供高质量油气会计信息的一种方法,但是实现尚有障碍;国际上关于油气资产公允价值计量运用条件满足性研究仍在进行中;历史成本下补充信息披露内容及方式也值得探讨。

石油和天然气会计披露问题的探讨

石油天然气是重要的战略资源,是石油天然气企业经营的主要物资资产,如何对外报告此种资产是石油天然气会计中的三大难题之一。本文从石油天然气资产的特殊性出发,运用比较分析的方法,对国内外现行的会计信息披露方法进行了比较和分析,并结合我国石油行业的特点,提出了适合我国国情的可行的会计信息披露方法。

低油价时期上市油气资产减值问题研究

近年来国际油价一直在50~60美元/bbl上下徘徊,进入2020年后更是进一步下滑,全球上市的油气资源公司其储量受到了巨大冲击,公司折旧(耗)、资产减值和利润等财务指标面临严峻的挑战。如何合理评估油气资源储量和控制油气资产减值成为上市公司的重要工作。以上市油气储量资产为研究对象,开展SPE-PRMS体系石油天然气储量价值研究,进行SPE准则下的油气资产减值测算。通过敏感性测算,油价变化是影响资产减值最关键的因素,操作成本和汇率变化是影响资产减值的重要因素,而贴现率的变化对资产减值影响最小。判断油气资产减值迹象,重点要锁定资产减值边缘的目标单元,而且成本单元划分越细暴露的资产减值风险越大。上市油气公司应科学、审慎地预判未来经济形势,一定要考虑到经济形势变差时的资产减值风险。要加强操作成本控制,提高单元产能,从而有效控制资产减值风险。可以通过合理资产减值而使上游油气资产净值减少,从而减少吨油折耗与折耗额。合理的资产减值符合会计谨慎性原则,同时也增强了未来收益预期的可信度,体现了对投资者负责的经营策略。

油气田资产减值测试方法研究

本文以油气田特有的耗竭性矿业资产为对象 ,针对我国油气田企业实施《企业会计制度》过程中遇到的现实问题 ,结合国际会计准则和美国财务会计准则的要求 ,对矿业资产 (或矿产 )

石油与天然气资产会计披露问题研究

随着中国三大石油公司在国内外成功上市,国内资本市场上的会计信息披露问题就显得越来越重要。文章对国内外现行的油气资产信息披露模式进行了比较分析,并结合我国石油行业的特点,提出了适合我国国情的会计信息披露和储量价值估算方法。

数据资产及其对成品油销售企业重要性初探

成品油销售企业拥有庞大的数据资产,这些数据资产具有巨大的经济价值和战略价值。成品油销售企业要加强数据资产的建立和运营,建立相关的数据资产运营部门,从数据规模、数据活性、数据收集运用能力方面提升数据资产的价值,适时构建企业数据供应链体系,积极跟进我国数据交易市场的建设,同时确保数据资产和客户隐私的安全性。

石油公司资产转换效率衡量指标——以喀麦隆BLK-2区块资产转换为例

石油公司的资产主要以六种形式存在,由低端到高端分别是区块、圈闭、C级资源量、P级储量、原油和货币。在运营过程中,石油公司会对较低端的资产价值进行估算,当预估资产价值大于转换成本和历史成本之和,并且石油公司财务状况良好,可以承担转换成本时,公司会尽早地进行资产转换,以获得资产经济价值最大化。试图从转换时间和转换量值两个方面建立转换效率的指标,用于定量衡量资产转换效率。以中国某公司在喀麦隆运营的BLK-2区块项目为实例,阐明高效率的资产转换可使公司资产价值快速实现最大化。

关于石油天然气储量资产化的思考

油气储量资产化是石油工业深化改革，建立现代企业制度的客观要求、也是提高石油企业勘探效益，降低生产成本，扭亏增盈的重要途径．作为石油企业建立“油公司”体制的一项重要基础工作，我国油气储量资产化这一工程刚刚启动，许多问题值得深入研究和探讨．本文就储量资产化及其价值评估的有关经济理论问题进行了探讨，分析了油气储量资产的特性，提出了“油田矿租”的新论点。

Subsea Maintenance Service Delivery:Mapping Factors Influencing Scheduled Service Duration

The oil and gas （O＆G） industry on the Norwegian continental shelf （NCS） leads the world in terms of the number of subsea O＆G installations. Ensuring the dependability of these assets is critical. Non-intrusive inspection, maintenance and repair （IMR） services are therefore needed to reduce risks. These services are planned and executed using a mono-hull offshore vessel complete with remotely operated vehicles （ROVs）, a module handling system and an active heave compensated crane. Vessel time is shared between competing jobs, using a prioritized forward-looking schedule. Extension in planned job duration may have an impact on O＆G production, service costs and health, safety, and environmental （HSE） risks. This paper maps factors influencing the job schedule efficiency. The influence factors are identified through reviews of literature as well as interviews with experts in one of the large IMR subsea service providers active on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The findings show that the most obvious factors are weather disruption and water depth. Other factors include job complexity, job uncertainty, IMR equipment availability, as well as the mix of job complexity.