Using Fuzzy Theory and Variable Weights for Water Quality Evaluation in Poyang Lake, China

Achieving water purity in Poyang Lake has become a major concern in recent years, thus appropriate evaluation of spatial and temporal water quality variations has become essential. Variations in 11 water quality parameters from 15 sampling sites in Poyang Lake were investigated from 2009 to 2012. An integrative fuzzy variable evaluation(IFVE) model based on fuzzy theory and variable weights was developed to measure variations in water quality. Results showed that: 1) only chlorophyll-a concentration and Secchi depth differed significantly among the 15 sampling sites(P < 0.01), whereas the 11 water quality parameters under investigation differed significantly throughout the seasons(P < 0.01). The annual variations of all water quality variables except for temperature, electrical conductivity, suspended solids and total phosphorus were considerable(P < 0.05). 2) The IFVE model was reasonable and flexible in evaluating water quality status and any possible ′bucket effect′. The model fully considered the influences of extremely poor indices on overall water quality. 3) A spatial analysis indicated that anthropogenic activities(particularly industrial sewage and dredging) and lake bed topography might directly affect water quality in Poyang Lake. Meanwhile, hydrological status and sewage discharged into the lake might be responsible for seasonal water quality variations.

Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application

In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.

Application of fuzzy optimization model in the evaluationof urban flood-waterloggedvulnerabilitybased on the synthetic weight ofgame theory

The evaluation of urban flood-waterlogged vulnerability is very important to the safety of urban flood control. In this paper, the evaluation of consolidated index is used. Respectively, AHP and entropy method calculate the subjective and objective weight of the evaluation indicators, and combine them by game theory. So we can obtain synthetic weight based on objective and subjective weights. The evaluation of urban flood-waterlogged vulnerability as target layer, a single variable multi-objective fuzzy optimization model is established. We use the model to evaluate flood-waterlogged vulnerability of 13 prefecture-level city in Hunan, and compare it with other evaluation method. The results show that the evaluation method has certain adaptability and reliability, and it＇ s helpfid to the construction planning of urban flood control.