Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Influence of variable viscosity and double diffusion on the convective stability of a nanofluid flow in an inclined porous channel

The influence of variable viscosity and double diffusion on the convective stability of a nanofluid flow in an inclined porous channel is investigated.The DarcyBrinkman model is used to characterize the fluid flow dynamics in porous materials.The analytical solutions are obtained for the unidirectional and completely developed flow.Based on a normal mode analysis,the generalized eigenvalue problem under a perturbed state is solved.The eigenvalue problem is then solved by the spectral method.Finally,the critical Rayleigh number with the corresponding wavenumber is evaluated at the assigned values of the other flow-governing parameters.The results show that increasing the Darcy number,the Lewis number,the Dufour parameter,or the Soret parameter increases the stability of the system,whereas increasing the inclination angle of the channel destabilizes the flow.Besides,the flow is the most unstable when the channel is vertically oriented.

The influence of resistance exercise training prescription variables on skeletal muscle mass,strength,and physical function in healthy adults:An umbrella review

Purpose:The aim of this umbrella review was to determine the impact of resistance training(RT)and individual RT prescription variables on muscle mass,strength,and physical function in healthy adults.Methods:Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA)guidelines,we systematically searched and screened eligible systematic reviews reporting the effects of differing RT prescription variables on muscle mass(or its proxies),strength,and/or physical function in healthy adults aged>18 years.Results:We identified 44 systematic reviews that met our inclusion criteria.The methodological quality of these reviews was assessed using A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews;standardized effectiveness statements were generated.We found that RT was consistently a potent stimulus for increasing skeletal muscle mass(4/4 reviews provide some or sufficient evidence),strength(4/6 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),and physical function(1/1 review provided some evidence).RT load(6/8 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),weekly frequency(2/4 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),volume(3/7 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),and exercise order(1/1 review provided some evidence)impacted RT-induced increases in muscular strength.We discovered that 2/3 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence that RT volume and contraction velocity influenced skeletal muscle mass,while 4/7 reviews provided insufficient evidence in favor of RT load impacting skeletal muscle mass.There was insufficient evidence to conclude that time of day,periodization,inter-set rest,set configuration,set end point,contraction velocity/time under tension,or exercise order(only pertaining to hypertrophy)influenced skeletal muscle adaptations.A paucity of data limited insights into the impact of RT prescription variables on physical function.Conclusion:Overall,RT increased muscle mass,strength,and physical function compared to no exercise.RT intensity(load)and weekly frequency impacted RT-induced increases in muscular strength but not muscle hypertrophy.RT volume(number of sets)influenced muscular strength and hypertrophy.

Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Extreme massive hydraulic fracturing in deep coalbed methane horizontal wells:A case study of the Linxing Block,eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Deep coal seams show low permeability,low elastic modulus,high Poisson’s ratio,strong plasticity,high fracture initiation pressure,difficulty in fracture extension,and difficulty in proppants addition.We proposed the concept of large-scale stimulation by fracture network,balanced propagation and effective support of fracture network in fracturing design and developed the extreme massive hydraulic fracturing technique for deep coalbed methane(CBM)horizontal wells.This technique involves massive injection with high pumping rate+high-intensity proppant injection+perforation with equal apertures and limited flow+temporary plugging and diverting fractures+slick water with integrated variable viscosity+graded proppants with multiple sizes.The technique was applied in the pioneering test of a multi-stage fracturing horizontal well in deep CBM of Linxing Block,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin.The injection flow rate is 18 m^(3)/min,proppant intensity is 2.1 m^(3)/m,and fracturing fluid intensity is 16.5 m^(3)/m.After fracturing,a complex fracture network was formed,with an average fracture length of 205 m.The stimulated reservoir volume was 1987×10^(4)m^(3),and the peak gas production rate reached 6.0×10^(4)m^(3)/d,which achieved efficient development of deep CBM.

Incorporating empirical knowledge into data-driven variable selection for quantitative analysis of coal ash content by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has become a widely used atomic spectroscopic technique for rapid coal analysis.However,the vast amount of spectral information in LIBS contains signal uncertainty,which can affect its quantification performance.In this work,we propose a hybrid variable selection method to improve the performance of LIBS quantification.Important variables are first identified using Pearson's correlation coefficient,mutual information,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)and random forest,and then filtered and combined with empirical variables related to fingerprint elements of coal ash content.Subsequently,these variables are fed into a partial least squares regression(PLSR).Additionally,in some models,certain variables unrelated to ash content are removed manually to study the impact of variable deselection on model performance.The proposed hybrid strategy was tested on three LIBS datasets for quantitative analysis of coal ash content and compared with the corresponding data-driven baseline method.It is significantly better than the variable selection only method based on empirical knowledge and in most cases outperforms the baseline method.The results showed that on all three datasets the hybrid strategy for variable selection combining empirical knowledge and data-driven algorithms achieved the lowest root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP)values of 1.605,3.478 and 1.647,respectively,which were significantly lower than those obtained from multiple linear regression using only 12 empirical variables,which are 1.959,3.718 and 2.181,respectively.The LASSO-PLSR model with empirical support and 20 selected variables exhibited a significantly improved performance after variable deselection,with RMSEP values dropping from 1.635,3.962 and 1.647 to 1.483,3.086 and 1.567,respectively.Such results demonstrate that using empirical knowledge as a support for datadriven variable selection can be a viable approach to improve the accuracy and reliability of LIBS quantification.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Assessing the Performance of a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Driven by a Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Dataset for Asian Climate

In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three simulations were conducted with a 25-km grid spacing for the period 1980–2014.The first simulation(WRF_ERA5)was driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5(ERA5)dataset and served as the validation dataset.The original GCM dataset(MPI-ESM1-2-HR model)was used to drive the second simulation(WRF_GCM),while the third simulation(WRF_GCMbc)was driven by the bias-corrected GCM dataset.The bias-corrected GCM data has an ERA5-based mean and interannual variance and long-term trends derived from the ensemble mean of 18 CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the WRF_GCMbc significantly reduced the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the climatological mean of downscaled variables,including temperature,precipitation,snow,wind,relative humidity,and planetary boundary layer height by 50%–90%compared to the WRF_GCM.Similarly,the RMSEs of interannual-tointerdecadal variances of downscaled variables were reduced by 30%–60%.Furthermore,the WRF_GCMbc better captured the annual cycle of the monsoon circulation and intraseasonal and day-to-day variabilities.The leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF)shows a monopole precipitation mode in the WRF_GCM.In contrast,the WRF_GCMbc successfully reproduced the observed tri-pole mode of summer precipitation over eastern China.This improvement could be attributed to a better-simulated location of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the WRF_GCMbc after GCM bias correction.

Data Quality Control Method of a New Drifting Observation Technology Named Drifting Air-Sea Interface Buoy

An integral quality control(QC)procedure that integrates various QC methods and considers the design indexes and operational status of the instruments for the observations of drifting air-sea interface buoy was developed in the order of basic in-spection followed by targeted QC.The innovative method of combining a moving Hampel filter and local anomaly detection com-plies with statistical laws and physical processes,which guarantees the QC performance of meteorological variables.Two sets of observation data were used to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the QC procedure,and the effect was evaluated using the observations of the Kuroshio Extension Observatory buoy as the reference.The results showed that the outliers in the time series can be correctly identified and processed,and the quality of data improved significantly.The linear correlation between the quality-controlled observations and the reference increased,and the difference decreased.The correlation coefficient of wind speed before and after QC increased from 0.77 to 0.82,and the maximum absolute error decreased by approximately 2.8ms^(-1).In addition,air pressure and relative humidity were optimized by 10^(-3)–10^(-2) orders of magnitude.For the sea surface temperature,the weight of coefficients of the continuity test algorithm was optimized based on the sea area of data acquisition,which effectively expanded the applicability of the algorithm.

Improving Optimal Fingerprinting Methods Requires a Viewpoint beyond Statistical Science

While being successful in the detection and attribution of climate change,the optimal fingerprinting method(OFM)may have some limitations from a physics-and-dynamics-based viewpoint.Here,an analysis is made on the linearity,noninteraction,and stationary-variability assumptions adopted by OFM.It is suggested that furthering OFM needs a viewpoint beyond statistical science,and the method should be combined with theoretical tools in the dynamics and physics of the Earth system,so as to be applied for the detection and attribution of nonlinear climate change including tipping elements within the Earth system.

A Stroke-Limitation AMD Control System with Variable Gain and Limited Area for High-Rise Buildings

Collisions between a moving mass and an anti-collision device increase structural responses and threaten structural safety.An active mass damper(AMD)with stroke limitations is often used to avoid collisions.However,a strokelimited AMD control system with a fixed limited area shortens the available AMD stroke and leads to significant control power.To solve this problem,the design approach with variable gain and limited area(VGLA)is proposed in this study.First,the boundary of variable-limited areas is calculated based on the real-time status of the moving mass.The variable gain(VG)expression at the variable limited area is deduced by considering the saturation of AMD stroke.Then,numerical simulations of a stroke-limited AMD control system with VGLA are conducted on a high-rise building structure.These numerical simulations show that the proposed approach has superior strokelimitation performance compared with a stroke-limited AMD control system with a fixed limited area.Finally,the proposed approach is validated through experiments on a four-story steel frame.

X-Ray Source Classification Using Machine Learning:A Study with EP-WXT Pathfinder LEIA

X-ray observations play a crucial role in time-domain astronomy.The Einstein Probe(EP),a recently launched X-ray astronomical satellite,emerges as a forefront player in the field of time-domain astronomy and high-energy astrophysics.With a focus on systematic surveys in the soft X-ray band,EP aims to discover high-energy transients and monitor variable sources in the universe.To achieve these objectives,a quick and reliable classification of observed sources is essential.In this study,we developed a machine learning classifier for autonomous source classification using data from the EP-WXT Pathfinder—Lobster Eye Imager for Astronomy(LEIA)and EP-WXT simulations.The proposed Random Forest classifier,built on selected features derived from light curves,energy spectra,and location information,achieves an accuracy of approximately 95%on EP simulation data and 98%on LEIA observational data.The classifier is integrated into the LEIA data processing pipeline,serving as a tool for manual validation and rapid classification during observations.This paper presents an efficient method for the classification of X-ray sources based on single observations,along with implications of most effective features for the task.This work facilitates rapid source classification for the EP mission and also provides valuable insights into feature selection and classification techniques for enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of X-ray source classification that can be adapted to other X-ray telescope data.

Real-time Abnormal Detection of GWAC Light Curve based on Wavelet Transform Combined with GRU-Attention

Nowadays, astronomy has entered the era of Time-Domain Astronomy, and the study of the time-varying light curves of various types of objects is of great significance in revealing the physical properties and evolutionary history of celestial bodies. The Ground-based Wide Angle Cameras telescope, on which this paper is based, has observed more than 10 million light curves, and the detection of anomalies in the light curves can be used to rapidly detect transient rare phenomena such as microgravity lensing events from the massive data. However, the traditional statistically based anomaly detection methods cannot realize the fast processing of massive data. In this paper, we propose a Discrete Wavelet(DW)-Gate Recurrent Unit-Attention(GRU-Attention) light curve warning model. Wavelet transform has good effect on data noise reduction processing and feature extraction, which can provide richer and more stable input features for a neural network, and the neural network can provide more flexible and powerful output model for wavelet transform. Comparison experiments show an average improvement of 61% compared to the previous pure long-short-term memory unit(LSTM) model, and an average improvement of 53.5% compared to the previous GRU model. The efficiency and accuracy of anomaly detection in previous paper work are not good enough, the method proposed in this paper possesses higher efficiency and accuracy,which incorporates the Attention mechanism to find out the key parts of the light curve that determine the anomalies. These parts are assigned higher weights, and in the actual anomaly detection, the star is detected with83.35% anomalies on average, and the DW-GRU-Attention model is compared with the DW-LSTM model, and the detection result f1 is improved by 5.75% on average, while having less training time, thus providing valuable information and guidance for astronomical observation and research.

A novel variable-order fractional chaotic map and its dynamics

In recent years,fractional-order chaotic maps have been paid more attention in publications because of the memory effect.This paper presents a novel variable-order fractional sine map(VFSM)based on the discrete fractional calculus.Specially,the order is defined as an iterative function that incorporates the current state of the system.By analyzing phase diagrams,time sequences,bifurcations,Lyapunov exponents and fuzzy entropy complexity,the dynamics of the proposed map are investigated comparing with the constant-order fractional sine map.The results reveal that the variable order has a good effect on improving the chaotic performance,and it enlarges the range of available parameter values as well as reduces non-chaotic windows.Multiple coexisting attractors also enrich the dynamics of VFSM and prove its sensitivity to initial values.Moreover,the sequence generated by the proposed map passes the statistical test for pseudorandom number and shows strong robustness to parameter estimation,which proves the potential applications in the field of information security.

Graph convolutional network for axial concentration profiles prediction in simulated moving bed

The simulated moving bed(SMB)chromatographic separation is a continuous compound separation process based on the differences in adsorption capacity exhibited by distinct constituents of a mixture on the fluid phase and stationary phase.The prediction of axial concentration profiles along the beds in a unit is crucial for the operating optimization of SMB.Though the correlation shared by operating variables of SMB has an enormous impact on the operational state of the device,these correlations have been long overlooked,especially by the data-driven models.This study proposes an operating variable-based graph convolutional network(OV-GCN)to enclose the underrepresented correlations and precisely predict axial concentration profiles prediction in SMB.The OV-GCN estimates operating variables with the Spearman correlation coefficient and incorporates them in the adjacency matrix of a graph convolutional network for information propagation and feature extraction.Compared with Random Forest,K-Nearest Neighbors,Support Vector Regression,and Backpropagation Neural Network,the values of the three performance evaluation metrics,namely MAE,RMSE,and R^(2),indicate that OV-GCN has better prediction accuracy in predicting five essential aromatic compounds'axial concentration profiles of an SMB for separating p-xylene(PX).In addition,the OV-GCN method demonstrates a remarkable ability to provide high-precision and fast predictions in three industrial case studies.With the goal of simultaneously maximizing PX purity and yield,we employ the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II optimization method to perform multi-objective optimization of the PX purity and yield.The outcome suggests a promising approach to extracting and representing correlations among operating variables in data-driven process modeling.

Mid-infrared Period-Luminosity Relations of Gaia DR3 Long Period Variables

Long period variable(LPV)stars are very promising distance indicators in the infrared bands.We selected asymptotic giant branch(AGB)stars in the Large and Small Magellanic Cloud(LMC and SMC)from the Gaia Data Release 3 LPV catalog,and classified them into oxygen-rich(O-rich)and carbon-rich(C-rich)AGB stars.Using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer database,we determined the W1-and W2-band period-luminosity relations(PLRs)for each pulsation-mode sequence of AGB stars.The dispersion of the PLRs of O-rich AGB stars in sequences C'and C is relatively small,around 0.14 mag.The PLRs of LMC and SMC are consistent in each sequence.In the W2 band,the PLR of large-amplitude C-rich AGB stars is steeper than that of small-amplitude C-rich AGB stars,due to their more circumstellar dust.By two methods,we find that some PLR sequences of O-rich AGB stars in the LMC are dependent on metallicity.The coefficients of the metallicity effect areβ=-0.533±0.213 mag dex~1andβ=-0.767±0.158 mag dex~1for sequence C in W1 and W2 bands,respectively.The significance of the metallicity effect in W1 band for the four sequences is 2.2-3.5σ.Both of these imply that distance measurements using O-rich Mira may need to take the metallicity effect into account.

Increasing root-lower characteristics improves drought tolerance in cotton cultivars at the seedling stage

Drought is an important abiotic stress factor in cotton production.The root system architecture(RSA)of cotton shows high plasticity which can alleviate drought-related stress under drought stress(DS)conditions;however,this alleviation is cultivar dependent.Therefore,this study estimated the genetic variability of RSA in cotton under DS.Using the paper-based growth system,we assessed the RSA variability in 80 cotton cultivars at the seedling stage,with 0 and10%polyethylene glycol 6000(PEG6000)as the control(CK)and DS treatment,respectively.An analysis of 23 aboveground and root traits in the 80 cotton cultivars revealed different responses to DS.On the 10th day after DS treatment,the degree of variation in the RSA traits under DS(5–55%)was greater than that of CK(5–49%).The 80 cultivars were divided into drought-tolerant cultivars(group 1),intermediate drought-tolerant cultivars(group 2),and drought-sensitive cultivars(group 3)based on their comprehensive evaluation values of drought resistance.Under DS,the root lengthlower,root area-lower,root volume-lower,and root length density-lower were significantly reduced by 63,71,76,and 4%in the drought-sensitive cultivars compared to CK.Notably,the drought-tolerant cultivars maintained their root lengthlower,root area-lower,root volume-lower,and root length density–lower attributes.Compared to CK,the root diameter(0–2 mm)-lower increased by 21%in group 1 but decreased by 3 and 64%in groups 2 and 3,respectively,under DS.Additionally,the drought-tolerant cultivars displayed a plastic response under DS that was characterized by an increase in the root-lower characteristics.Drought resistance was positively correlated with the root area-lower and root length density-lower.Overall,the RSA of the different cotton cultivars varied greatly under DS.Therefore,important root traits,such as the root-lower traits,provide great insights for exploring whether drought-tolerant cotton cultivars can effectively withstand adverse environments.

Period–Luminosity Relationship forδScuti Stars Revisited

The Gaia DR3 parallax approach was used to estimate the absolute parameters of 2375δScuti stars from the ASAS catalog.The selected stars have a variety of observational characteristics,with a higher than 80%probability of beingδScuti stars.We have displayed all the stars in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram along with theδScuti instability strip,the Zero Age Main Sequence and the Terminal Age Main Sequence.Then,we determined which fundamental and overtone modes each star belongs to using pulsation constant(Q)calculations.In addition,we evaluated the parameters in the Q calculation equation using three machine learning methods,which showed that surface gravity and temperature have the greatest effect on its calculation.The Period-Luminosity(P-L)relationship of theδScuti stars was also revisited.Eventually,using least squares linear regression,we made four linear fits for fundamental and overtone modes and updated their relationships.

Synergistic Interdecadal Evolution of Precipitation over Eastern China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during 1951-2015

By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.