STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ONTHE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxi-a-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestern China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren’t appropriate to super long -range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don’t depend on Reai-time weather data and called “Period correcting for residual error series GM (1, 1) model” is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the forecast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long -term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.

FREE BOUNDARY PROBLEM OF THE 2D SEEPAGE FLOW

The free boundary of the seepage flow is a problem of close consideration inengineering. So far. an estimation of the wet set region usually needs a priori beforethe numerical analysis. and the configuration of the free boundary is then obtained bySuccessive approximation, The authors of this paper benefit from a new mathematicalexpression-The variational Inequality-to formulate the free boundary problem,which is then solved by the finite element method Instead of the conventional way of discretization, here finite element mesh is generated in the entere domain of thestudied medin and the free boundary of the seepage region can be defined directlywithout any process of iteration. The investigation gives a new effective scheme for the seepage flow analysis.

Measurement of the exercising blood flow during rhythmical muscle contractions assessed by Doppler ultrasound:Methodological considerations

Given the recent technological developments, ultra-sound Doppler can provide valuable measurements of arterial blood flow with high temporal resolution. In a clinical setting, measurements of hemodynamics is used to monitor, diagnose and manage changes in blood velocity profile for cardiac valve disease, relatively large vessel stenosis and other cardiovascular diseases. In health science and preventive medicine for cardiovascular disease with exercise therapy, evaluation of cardiac and vascular function is a useful indicator not only at rest but also during exercise, leading to improved exercise tolerance as well as physical activity. During exercise, the increase in oxygen uptake (calculated as product of arterial blood flow to the exercising limb and the arteriovenous oxygen difference) is directly proportional to the work performed. The increased oxygen demand is met through a central mechanism, an increase in cardiac output and blood pressure, as well as a peripheral mechanism, an increase in vascular conductance and oxygen extraction (major part in the whole exercising muscles) from the blood. Therefore, the determination of the local blood flow dynamics (potential oxygen supply) feeding to rhythmic muscle contractions can contribute to the understanding of the factors limiting the work capacity including, for instance the muscle metabolism, substance utilization and vasodilatation in the exercising muscle. Using non-invasive measures of pulsed Doppler ultrasound the validity of evaluating blood velocity/flow in the fore- arm or lower limb conduit artery feeding to the mus- cle is demonstrated during rhythmic muscle exercise;however the exercising blood velocity profile (fast Fourier transformation) due to muscle contractions is always seen as a physiological variability or fluctuations in the magnitude in blood velocity due to the spontaneous muscle contraction and relaxation induced changes in force curve intensity. Considering the above mentioned variation in blood velocity in relation to muscle contractions may provide valuable information for evaluating the blood flow dynamics during exercise. This review presents the methodological concept that underlines the methodological considerations for determining the exercising blood velocity/flow in the limb conduit artery in relation the exercise model of dynamic leg exercise assessed by pulsed Doppler ultrasonography.

Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River, Northeast China

Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human actiities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found： 1 ） The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985 （Period I）, 1986 to 2000 （Period II） and 2001 to 2011 （Period III）. 2） Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3） Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4） Climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5） In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will .benefit future regional planning and sustainable development.