V_r:A new index to represent the variation rate of geomagnetic activity

By calculating the hourly standard deviation of the first-order differences of the horizontal geomagnetic com- ponent minute data, a new index Vr to represent the variation rate of the geomagnetic field was introduced. Vr-indices show similar trends in the temporal change at different observatories and have simultaneous peak values at the observatories cov- ering a large span geographically, which reveals that the source of geomagnetic disturbances represented by Vr is in the mag- netosphere. Based on the comparison among Vr, Kp and ap, it is found that generally Vr changes linearly with Kp and ap, which means that the rapid changes of magnetic field usually exist together with magnetic disturbances. But there are excep- tions. As Vr can be easily produced by individual observatory in quasi real time and is more sensitive to the variation rate of geomagnetic field rather than the field itself, it can be expected to serve for monitoring or predicting the geomagnetic-induced event in a quick and intuitive way.

Predictive performance of the variation rate of the driving pressure on the outcome of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

Purpose:To assess the value of the driving pressure variation rate(ΔP%)in predicting the outcome of weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome.Methods:In this case-control study,a total of 35 patients with moderate-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome were admitted to the intensive care unit between January 2022 and December 2022 and received invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 48 h were enrolled.Patients were divided into successful weaning group and failed weaning group depending on whether they could be removed from ventilator support within 14 days.Outcome measures including driving pressure,PaO2:FiO2,and positive end-expiratory pressure,etc.were assessed every 24 h from day 0 to day 14 until successful weaning was achieved.The measurement data of non-normal distribution were presented as median(Q1,Q3),and the differences between groups were compared by Wilcoxon rank sum test.And categorical data use the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test to compare.The predictive value ofΔP%in predicting the outcome of weaning from the ventilator was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves.Results:Of the total 35 patients included in the study,17 were successful vs.18 failed in weaning from a ventilator after 14 days of mechanical ventilation.The cut-off values of the medianΔP%measured by Operator 1 vs.Operator 2 in the first 4 days were≥4.17%and 4.55%,respectively(p<0.001),with the area under curve of 0.804(sensitivity of 88.2%,specificity of 64.7%)and 0.770(sensitivity of 88.2%,specificity of 64.7%),respectively.There was a significant difference in mechanical ventilation duration between the successful weaning group and the failure weaning group(8(6,13)vs.12(7.5,17.3),p=0.043).The incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia in the successful weaning group was significantly lower than in the failed weaning group(0.2‰vs.2.3‰,p=0.001).There was a significant difference noted between these 2 groups in the 28-day mortality(11.8%vs.66.7%,p=0.003).Conclusion:The medianΔP%in the first 4 days of mechanical ventilation showed good predictive performance in predicting the outcome of weaning from mechanical ventilation within 14 days.Further study is needed to confirm this finding.

Annual variation rate of global sea－level rise and the prediction for the 21st century

An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world, a GSL rise of 0. 15～0. 16 cm/a is obtained. The predicted values of AVR of GSL for the 21st century are presented. The authors' results have been compared to those reported by other scientists at home and abroad. The method proposedhere is more convenient and precise.

RATE VARIATIONAL EXTREMUM PRINCIPLES FOR FINITE ELASTOPLASTICITY

Dual variational extremum principles for rate problems of classical elastoplasticitv at finite deformation are studied in Updated Lagrangian rate forms. It is proved that the convexity of the variational functionals are closely related to a so-called gap function, which plavs an important role in nonlinear variational problems.

Variation of rate of exserted stigma in P(T) GMS lines of rice

Rate of exserted stigmas (RES), ie. the ratio of glumes with exserted stigmas to the total glumes is one of the most important characteristics which affects the out-crossing rate of its combinations. Sixteen P(T) GMS lines with different ecotypes were used to study the variations of RES during their stable sterile period in Wuhan from 1992—1993. Ten healthy panicles were randomly selected at full anthesis. Their colour and the number of glumes showing one-side or two-side exserted of stigmas were investigated. Table 1 showed that there were a great variations of RES among the 16 lines tested in two consecutive years (c.v.=43.38%) and among the

ON PROBLEMS OF U-SHAPED BELLOWS WITH NONLINEAR DEFORMATION OF LARGE AXISYMMETRICAL DEFLECTION(Ⅱ)——COUNTING VARIATION OF THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION

On the basis of paper [1], assuming the logarithm of thickness at arbitrary point on a U-shaped bellows meridian is linear with the logarithm of distance between that point and axis of symmetry, perturbation solutions of the corresponding problems of large axisymmetrical deflection are given. The effects of thickness distribution variation, which result from technology factors, on stiffness of bellows are discussed.

Comparative Analysis of Climatic Change Trend and Change-Point Analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.

Error Estimations, Error Computations, and Convergence Rates in FEM for BVPs

This paper presents derivation of a priori error estimates and convergence rates of finite element processes for boundary value problems (BVPs) described by self adjoint, non-self adjoint, and nonlinear differential operators. A posteriori error estimates are discussed in context with local approximations in higher order scalar product spaces. A posteriori error computational framework (without the knowledge of theoretical solution) is presented for all BVPs regardless of the method of approximation employed in constructing the integral form. This enables computations of local errors as well as the global errors in the computed finite element solutions. The two most significant and essential aspects of the research presented in this paper that enable all of the features described above are: 1) ensuring variational consistency of the integral form(s) resulting from the methods of approximation for self adjoint, non-self adjoint, and nonlinear differential operators and 2) choosing local approximations for the elements of a discretization in a subspace of a higher order scalar product space that is minimally conforming, hence ensuring desired global differentiability of the approximations over the discretizations. It is shown that when the theoretical solution of a BVP is analytic, the a priori error estimate (in the asymptotic range, discussed in a later section of the paper) is independent of the method of approximation or the nature of the differential operator provided the resulting integral form is variationally consistent. Thus, the finite element processes utilizing integral forms based on different methods of approximation but resulting in VC integral forms result in the same a priori error estimate and convergence rate. It is shown that a variationally consistent (VC) integral form has best approximation property in some norm, conversely an integral form with best approximation property in some norm is variationally consistent. That is best approximation property of the integral form and the VC of the integral form is equivalent, one cannot exist without the other, hence can be used interchangeably. Dimensional model problems consisting of diffusion equation, convection-diffusion equation, and Burgers equation described by self adjoint, non-self adjoint, and nonlinear differential operators are considered to present extensive numerical studies using Galerkin method with weak form (GM/WF) and least squares process (LSP) to determine computed convergence rates of various error norms and present comparisons with the theoretical convergence rates.

内蒙古高原荒漠草原植物气候生产力时空演变特征(英文)

Thornthwaite Memorial model and other statistic methods were used to calculate the climate-productivity of plants with the meteorological data from 1961 to 2007 at 9 stations distributed on Inner Mongolia desert steppe.The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of climate-productivity were analyzed by using the methods of the tendency rate of the climate trend,accumulative anomaly,and spatial difference and so on.The results showed that the climate-productivity kept linear increased trend over Inner Mongolia desert steppe in recent 47 years,but not significant.In spatial distribution,the climate-productivity reduced with the increased latitude.The climate-productivity in southwest part of Inner Mongolia desert steppe was growing while that in the southeast was reducing.The variation rate of the climate-productivity increased from the northwest part to the southeast part of Inner Mongolia desert steppe.In recent 47 years,the climate-productivity in southeast Jurh underwent the greatest decreasing extent,and the region was the sensitive area of the climate-productivity variation.

Recent geodynamics of major strike-slip zones

The subject of this study is strike-slip fault zones, where temporal variations of accumulation in strike-slip deformation complicate the standard process of deformation accu- mulation and release during strong earthquakes. These temporal variations are expressed in the E1 Ghab segment of the Dead Sea Transform zone （DST, Eastern Mediterranean） and in the Talas-Fergana fault zone （Central Asia）. According to Global Positioning System （GPS） data, the strike-slip deformations within these zones are not now accumulating or are accumulating at a rate that is significantly less than their average rate during the Holocene and Quaternary or the Pliocene-Quaternary. Simultaneously, weak transverse shortening has been measured in both zones by GPS. In both of these zones, strong earthquakes have not registered within the XX century, yet epochs of intensified seismicity （strong earthquakes） took place throughout history. In the southern and central parts of the E1 Ghab zone, there is evidence of 30 strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 5.7; however, no instrumental earthquakes of Ms 〉 5 have been identified. The temporal distribution of seismic energy released by these earthquakes demonstrates a 350 ± 50-year cycle. Values for the seismic energies released during the peak phases of these cycles are approximated by a sinusoid that suggests the possibility of a 〉1800-year cycle （＂hyper-cycle＂）, which began around the 3rd century, reached its maximum in the 12th century, and has continued until now. A combination of geological, archaeoseismological, and geodetic data show that the rate of sinistral strike-slip deformation varied in the fault zone, probably in conformity with the variation of seismicity during the ＂hyper-cycle.＂ In the Talas-Fergana fault zone, trenching and 14C dating that was correlated with right lateral offsets, gave a possible preliminary estimate of the average rates of the Late Holocene strike slip of about 10 mm per year, with a decrease in the SE direction to 4 mm-4.5 mm per year. These studies also showed that the slip in the Talas-Fergana fault zone was realized mainly during strong earthquakes. New trenching and 14C dating of paleoearthquake records identified the epoch of seismicity intensification dating to the XIV-XVII centuries. These paleoearthquakes could produce a total dextral slip at several meters. Therefore, consid- eration of these epochs was necessary to determine a calculated average slip rate during the Late Holocene.

A Method of Polydirectional Fuzzy Synthetical Cluster of Considering Partiality of Decision Maker

Based on analyzing traditional fuzzy cluster method, this paper presents a new method for building fuzzy similar matrix R and a method of polydirectional synthetical fuzzy cluster, which can fully reflect the partiality and experience of policymakers. This method is simple, practical and can reflect thing’s feature comprehensively, so it has certain practical value.

Reconstructing evolutionary timescales using phylogenomics

Reconstructing the timescale of the Tree of Life is one of the principal aims of evolutionary biology. This has been greatly aided by the development of the molecular clock, which enables evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data. In recent years, high-throughput sequencing technology has led to an increase in the feasibility and availability ofgenome-scale data sets. These represent a rich source of biological information, but they also bring a set of analytical challenges. In this review, we provide an overview of phylogenomic dating and describe the challenges associated with analysing genome-scale data. We also report on recent phylogenomic estimates of the evolutionary timescales of mammals, birds, and insects.