Research on the Longitudinal Transmission Mechanism of Prices for Urban Vegetable Supply Chain-Based on the Empirical Research in Chongqing

This paper mainly introduces the longitudinal transmission mechanism of urban vegetable prices in Chongqing area. On the basis of the supply chain theory,the " farm price- wholesale price- retail price" of vegetables in Chongqing has been identified as the research object. Through statistical analysis,it is found that the above three types of price show a modest annual fluctuation of 7- 12% from 2008 to2013. Later,the paper focuses on the empirical research on the weekly price data in 2013 applying the co-integration theory,which reveals that the farm price of vegetables is largely influenced by themselves; the wholesale price of vegetables is mainly affected by their own price,the production price and the retail price of the earlier stage without the current influence of the production price; and the retail price of vegetables is also affected by their own price,but is not affected by the their current local price and the wholesale price. Vegetable prices have shown an obvious positive transmission mechanism in the links from production to retail,but the feedback effect of retail on production is not brought into play.

Why Are There Great Fluctuations in the Prices of Vegetables?

The normal supply of vegetables is related to the people's livelihood and social stability,and smooth prices of vegetables are vital to social development. Based on the phenomenon of great fluctuations in the prices of vegetables in recent years,we use living example to analyze the real reasons for great fluctuations in the prices of vegetables from the perspective of supply chain node of vegetables and macroeconomic policies. Finally,from the balance of supply and demand,industry standardization,circulation,market order and the government mechanism,we put forth the following management strategies for controlling great fluctuations in the prices of vegetables: establishing and improving the channels of information transmission,making the production and marketing information symmetrical,and balancing supply and demand; actively promoting the industry standardization of vegetables; reducing the intermediate links,and curtailing the circulation cost of vegetables; regulating the " green channel" of vegetables,and preventing uptick in the prices of vegetables in the " last mile" ; cracking down on the vegetable speculation behavior to ensure the healthy development of the vegetable market; actively giving play to the role of government,and building the vegetable protection system.

Analysis on the Comparison of Vegetable Price

In 2010,the garlic,bean and ginger became more expensive than ever,which made some people's life harder.In response to such phenomena,the retail price and wholesale price at the producers' end,the retail price and wholesale price at distributors' end,and consumption related data(disposable income,consumption expenditure,fresh vegetables amount from 2004 to 2011 were compared and analyzed in this paper.Results showed that the average price(selling price,wholesale price and retail price) of five kinds of vegetables generally rose.There was certain differences in the price change range.Since 2004,especially in 2009 the vegetable prices had been so high that it had influenced the life of low income families in China.

Price Paradox and Strategic Choice of "Vegetable Basket" in China

By using the analysis method of game theory,this paper analyzes the phenomenon of price paradox of "vegetable basket" in China and its reason as follows:the price paradox of "vegetable basket" in China is that if the vegetable is cheap,it will harm farmers,and if the vegetable is expensive,it will harm people;high-cost logistics,low negotiation status of vegetable growers and cooperation predicament are responsible for price paradox.Based on the theoretical basis of strategic choice-theory of intermediaries,it indicates that the intermediaries can realize effective transaction and save transaction cost.The strategic choice of solving price paradox of "vegetable basket" is put forward as follows:support vegetable growers' cooperatives,reduce transaction cost and raise the negotiation status of vegetable growers;develop the model of connection of agricultural products and supermarkets,and reduce the cost of transport and distribution;innovate upon intermediaries and develop the third-party logistics.

Prediction and Research on Vegetable Price Based on Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network Model

Considering the complexity of vegetables price forecast,the prediction model of vegetables price was set up by applying the neural network based on genetic algorithm and using the characteristics of genetic algorithm and neural work.Taking mushrooms as an example,the parameters of the model are analyzed through experiment.In the end,the results of genetic algorithm and BP neural network are compared.The results show that the absolute error of prediction data is in the scale of 10%;in the scope that the absolute error in the prediction data is in the scope of 20% and 15%.The accuracy of genetic algorithm based on neutral network is higher than the BP neutral network model,especially the absolute error of prediction data is within the scope of 20%.The accuracy of genetic algorithm based on neural network is obviously better than BP neural network model,which represents the favorable generalization capability of the model.

Study on Vegetable Price Fluctuation and Its Impact in Guangxi

Vegetables,as one of the most important non-staple foods in the daily consumption of Chinese residents,are closely related to the life of urban residents. The fluctuation of regional vegetable prices has a negative effect on producers and consumers. Relevant research on vegetable price fluctuations has been carried out,which provides a corresponding basis for realizing the balance of supply and demand in the agricultural products market within Guangxi,and for government departments to macro-regulate agricultural production and optimize the agricultural industrial structure.

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Women’s empowerment and food consumption:Evidence from female-headed households in Tanzania

Despite the growing recognition of women’s increasing role in the household and corresponding empowerment programs in sub-Saharan Africa,intensive research on the relationship between women’s influence and household food consumption is minimal.Using the most recent(2017-2018)national household survey data from Tanzania,this study examined the influence of women’s empowerment on household food consumption.First,we compared the monthly consumption of eight food categories between female-headed households(FHHs)and male-headed households(MHHs)using both descriptive statistics and the propensity score matching(PSM)method.Furthermore,we adopted the two-stage Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System model(LES-AIDS)to estimate income and price elasticities for the two household types.The results show that FHHs consume bread and cereals,fish,oils and fats,vegetables,and confectionery(sugar,jam,honey,chocolate,etc.)more than MHHs.Moreover,FHHs have a significantly higher income elasticity of demand for all food groups than MHHs.They are also more price elastic than MHHs in meat,fish,oils,fats,sugar,jam,honey,chocolate,etc.

基于HP-EMD数据分解与CNN-LSTM深度学习的蔬菜价格预测模型

现有蔬菜价格预测模型多针对单一品种且稳定性与适用性不足,鉴于此提出一种基于HP滤波法(Hodrick-Prescott filter)与经验模态分解法(Empirical mode decomposition,EMD)分解数据,并耦合卷积神经网络(Convolutional neural network,CNN)与长短期记忆模型(Long short-term memory,LSTM)的蔬菜价格预测模型。HP-EMD方法将价格序列分解为意义明确的分量以分析价格的波动规律,CNN-LSTM方法提取分量特征以提高模型的稳定性。以云南省2019—2021年西红柿、芹菜、菠菜、大白菜和大蒜的价格数据进行模型验证。结果表明:该模型预测的西红柿价格平均相对误差为5.03%、决定系数为0.85、均方根误差为0.30元(人民币,下同)∕kg,DM检验(Diebold mariano test)表明该模型显著优于其他模型。其他蔬菜预测结果的决定系数也均在0.8以上,表明该模型具有良好的适用性。

Bankruptcy Probability and Stock Prices： The Effect of Altman Z-Score Information on Stock Prices Through Panel Data

There is an extensive branch of literature that examines the success of Altman＇s Z-score in predicting bankruptcy or financial distress. The goal of this research paper is to investigate the stock price performance of firms that exhibit a large probability of bankruptcy according to the model of Airman. Regardless of the validity of Airman＇s Z-score, we utilize a new empirical design that relates stock price movements to Altman＇s Z-score. We focus and examine, through the methodology of panel data, whether stocks that have a high probability of bankruptcy underperform stocks with a low probability of bankruptcy or if there are differences in the way the markets react to the financial health of the sample firms.

Empirical Analysis of the Vegetable Industry in Hebei Province

We first introduce the status quo of the development of vegetable industry in Hebei Province,and then conduct empirical analysis of the development of vegetable industry in Hebei Province.Further,we analyze the development advantage of the vegetable industry in Hebei Province using SAI(Scale Advantage Indices) and SCA(Symmetric Comparative Advantage),drawing the conclusion that the vegetable industry in Hebei Province has much room for development;at the same time,we analyze the factors influencing vegetable consumption of residents in Hebei Province through the regression model,drawing the conclusion that the vegetable consumer price index is the main factor affecting the consumption.Finally we make recommendations for the development of vegetable industry in Hebei Province as follows:increasing financial input,promoting policy guarantee capacity;implementing brand strategy,promoting the competitiveness of products;improving the ecological environment,promoting industrialization of pollution-free vegetables.

Farm produce prices rise on reduced supplies

Xinhua reported on March 20 that prices of major farm produce monitored by the government rose as snow falls interrupted supplies,the Ministry of Commerce said.The wholesale prices of 18 staple vegetables rose 3.2 percent from one week earlier,and the prices have increased 9.

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

The Changes in World Oil Prices, Monetary Factors, and Foreign Index Toward Composite Index Movement： Indonesian Case for the Period of 2005-2011

Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.

Soaring Grain Prices Raise Global Concerns

Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.

Study on the Potential of China’s Fruit and Vegetable Products Export to the RCEP Partners

China is one of the world’s major exporters of fruit and vegetable products,and the expansion of fruit and vegetable exports is important for increasing agricultural income.Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners from 2001 to 2019.The results show that China’s GDP per capita,the population of importing countries,and common language conditions have positive effects on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners.GDP per capita of importing countries,the population of China,and geographical distance between trading parties hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products.The presence of trade inefficiencies constrains China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners,with liner shipping connectivity and trade freedom having a positive relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs have a negative relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products,which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products,while financial freedom and free trade agreements have no significant impact on export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

lower Oil Prices Test Africa’s growth

The foundations of the ＂Africa rising＂ narrative may have increasingly been tested in recent months. Security concerns, the Ebola crisis in West Africa and conflict in Libya have been some of the stumbling blocks the continent has had to face. These have continuously challenged its ability to respond to events that could derail the past years＇ economic growth. The impact of lower oil prices particularly could be a major shock to the region, especially for oilexporting countries.

农业节水灌溉REITs项目IRR测算研究

通过农业节水灌溉特许经营项目REITs案例研究发现,基础设施特许经营项目存在价值漏损时,可采用修正的B-S期权模型进行估值,可分配现金流用于分红的比例越高,投资收益越高,但项目的看涨期权价值越低。在项目高溢价转让的情况下,银行贷款比例越高、偿还时间越短,投资内部收益率(IRR)及投资收益可能越低;收益波动越大,看涨期权价值越大,但IRR可能会下降。采用B-S期权定价模型丰富了现有经营权类公募REITs资产估值方法,具有推广应用价值。对公募REITs产品在不同贷款比例、还款期限以及分红条件下确定合理投资收益,具有实践指导作用。