Subseasonal predictability of the transition of the stratospheric polar vortex:A case study in winter 1987/88

平流层极涡作为冬季次季节尺度上一个重要的可预测性来源,其强度在1987/88年冬季表现为1979-2019年最显著的转折,即在前(后)冬极端偏弱(强),因此在本文中选取这一个例研究了该年冬季平流层极涡在次季节尺度上的可预测性,结果表明弱极涡和强极涡事件的预测与模式能否准确预测上传行星波的强度紧密相关,同时,发现前期对流层欧亚遥相关波列可能是弱极涡事件发生的关键预兆信号.此外,模式对平流层极涡强度和北大西洋涛动预测误差之间存在显著正相关关系,表明模式减少平流层极涡的预测误差可能可以提高北大西洋涛动及相关对流层气候预测.

Seasonal Transition Features of Large-Scale Moisture Transport in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1957-2001, the climatological seasonal transition features of large-scale vertically integrated moisture transport （VIMT） in the Asian-Australian monsoon region are investigated in this paper. The basic features of the seasonal transition of VIMT from winter to summer are the establishment of the summertime ＂great moisture river＂ pattern （named the GMR pattern） and its eastward expansion, associated with a series of climatological events which occurred in some ＂key periods＂, which include the occurrence of the notable southerly VIMT over the Indochina Peninsula in mid March, the activity of the low VIMT vortex around Sri Lanka in late April, and the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon in mid May, among others. However, during the transition from summer to winter, the characteristics are mainly exhibited by the establishment of the easterly VIMT belt located in the tropical area, accompanied by some events occurring in ＂key periods＂. Further analyses disclose a great difference between the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions when viewed from the meridional migration of the westerly VIMT during the seasonal change process, according to which the Asian monsoon region can be easily divided into two parts along the western side of the Indochina Peninsula and it may also denote different formation mechanisms between the two regions.

A Typical Mode of Seasonal Circulation Transition: A Climatic View of the Abrupt Transition from Drought to Flood over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in the Late Spring and Early Summer of 2011

In this study, the seasonal transition of precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang-tze River Valley (YRV) from late spring to early summer is investigated. The results show that the seasonal transition of precipitation exhibits multi-modes. One of these modes is characterized by an abrupt transition from drought to flood (ATDF) over the middle and lower reaches of the YRV in the seasonal transition of precipitation. It is shown that the ATDF event from May to June 2011 is simply one prominent case of the ATDF mode. The ATDF mode exhibits an obvious decadal variability. The mode has occurred more frequently since 1979, and its amplitude has apparently strengthened since 1994. From the climatic view, the ATDF mode configures a typical seasonal circulation transition from winter to summer, for which the winter circulations are prolonged, and the summer circulations with the rainy season are built up early over the YRV.

On the Seasonal Transition and the Interannual Variability in Global Kinetic Energy at 500 hPa, Accompanied withAnomalies of Energy during the 1982 / 83 ENSO

Utilizing the material of monthly means of the three primary kinetic energy modes over the whote globe at 500 hPa during the nine years of 1980-1988, both the rapid seasonal changes and the interannual variability in tie general circulation in terms of the energy modes have been investigated, with special attention paid to the unusual year 1983, Two main results are obtained. One, there are remarkable seasonal rapid changes over the Northern Hemisphere, occurring ganerally in April and October. The other, among the nine years of 1980-1988, 1983 is the only one with unusual energy modes and remarkably abnormal seasonal changes.

Seasonal Transition of Summer Rainy Season over Indochina and Adjacent Monsoon Region

The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) data. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy season is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the central South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November.

Alterations of Intracellular Ca^(2+) Concentration and Ultrastructure in Spruce Apical Bud Cells during Seasonal Transition

Potassium antimonite was used to localize Ca2+ in the apical bud cells of spruce from July 1999 to May 2000. During the period of active growth (July 14), Calcium precipitates, an indication of Ca2+ localization, were mainly distributed in vacuoles, intercellular spaces and cell walls. Few Ca2+ deposits localized in the cytosol and nucleus, showing a low level of the cytosolic and nuclear Ca2+ concentration in the warm summer. In August, some Ca2+ deposits appeared in the cytosol and nuclei, indicating that Ca2+ influx occurred in the cytosol and nucleus as the day length became shorter. From September to November, high levels of the cytosolic and nuclear Ca2+ remained. During the mid-winter (December and January), the distribution of Ca2+ deposits and the ultrastructures in the cells were altered dramatically. Plasmolysis occurred in many cells due to the protoplasmic dehydration. In addition plasmalemma invagination and nuclear chromatin aggregation also occurred. A large number of Ca2+ deposits appeared in the space between the plasmalemma and the cell wall. And also some Ca2+ deposits were distributed in the plastids. However, few Ca2+ deposits were observed in the cytosol and nuclei. By spring of the next year (May), when plants were de-acclimated and resumed active growth, Ca2+ subcellular localization essentially restored to that observed in July of the last year, i.e., the cells contained low cytosolic and nuclear Ca2+ concentrations; Ca2+ deposits were mainly distributed in the vacuoles, cell walls and intercellular spaces. The relationships between the seasonal changes of intracellular Ca2+ concentration and the development of dormancy/cold acclimation, as well as plasmolysis associated with dormancy and cold hardiness were discussed.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ASIAN-PACIFIC THERMAL FIELD AND POSSIBLE MECHANISMS

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, CMAP rainfall and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature(SST) datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the seasonal transition of East Asian monsoon and Asian-Pacific thermal contrast, together with the possible causes. Based on the 250 h Pa air temperature over two selected key areas, the Asian-Pacific thermal difference(APTD) index is calculated. Results show that the APTD index is highly consistent with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation(APO) index defined by Zhao et al., in terms of different key areas in different seasons. Moreover, the time point of the seasonal transition of the Asian-Pacific thermal contrast can be well determined by the APTD index, indicative of seasonal variation in East Asian atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. The transition characteristic of the circulation can be summarized as follows. The continental cold high at lower tropospheric level moves eastward to the East China Sea and decreases rapidly in intensity, while the low-level northerlies turn to southerlies. At middle tropospheric level, the East Asia major trough is reduced and moves eastward. Furthermore, the subtropical high strengthens and appears near Philippines. The South Asia high shifts from the east of Philippines to the west of Indochina Peninsula, and the prevailing southerlies change into northerlies in upper troposphere. Meanwhile,both the westerly and easterly jets both jump to the north. The seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation is closely related to the thermal contrast, and the possible mechanism can be concluded as follows. Under the background of the APTD seasonal transition, the southerly wind appears firstly at lower troposphere, which triggers the ascending motion via changing vertical shear of meridional winds. The resultant latent heating accelerates the transition of heating pattern from winter to summer. The summer heating pattern can further promote the adjustment of circulation, which favors the formation and strengthening of the low-level southerly and upper-level northerly winds. As a result, the meridional circulation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established through a positive feedback between the circulation and thermal fields. Moreover, the time point of this seasonal transition has a significant positive correlation with the SST anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for the short-term climate prediction.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE EAST JET STREAM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ITS RELATION WITH INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SEASONAL SPLITTING OVER THE ASIAN MONSOON SECTORS AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM

The splitting of the Northern Hemisphere sub-tropical high (SH) during spring to summer and its possible mechanisms has been analyzed. Results indicate that the splitting of SH occurs over the Bay of Bengal to the Indo-China peninsula. However, remarkable contrast exists in the Hadley cell at the lower and upper levels over these sectors during March to May. The land surface sensitive/latent heating both play an important role, and decay the local Hadley cell over the Indo-China peninsula by enhancing the upwelling. In contrast, the dominant land surface sensitive heating over the Bay of Bengal only damages the low-level Hadley cell. Thus, the splitting of SH should occur over the Indo-China peninsula, rather than the Bay of Bengal at lower levels. In addition, the analysis suggests that the faster seasonal snow melting in the east of Indo-China peninsula can enhance the land surface sensitive heating atmosphere and weaken the local Hadley cell, such seasonal change benefits the splitting of the SH.

NUMERICAL STUDY ON INFLUENCE OF QINGHAI-XIZANG(TIBETAN)PLATEAU ON SEASONAL TRANSITION OF GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

It is a worthwhile attempt to address the role of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in the seasonal transition of general circulation from a global prospective. In this paper, the CCM1 (R15L7) - LNWP spectral model is used to study the influences of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the seasonal transfer of the general circulation, with the objective analysis form the State Meteorological Center for March 17, 1996 as the initial field. A mid-level heating source in regions on the same latitudes is shown to cause a warming center of 224 K to form on the level of 200 hPa that warms up the atmosphere by more than 7 K and a drop of temperature by about 6 K on most of the 200-hPa layer over the Antarctic continent, with the largest negative center being -8.28 K. It is favorable to the deepening and widening of the polar vortexes in the course of transition from summer to winter. The topographic effect of the plateau plays a vital role in forming and maintaining the mean troughs and ridges of the atmospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere such that it strengthens (weakens) the south-north positive gradient of temperature on the northern (southern) side of the latitude zone in which the plateau sits and increases the north-south gradient of temperature near 30(N. The seasonal transition is thus favored so that the bulk travel of global westerly at the middle latitudes and the formation of Asian monsoon in early summer are made possible. In the equatorial and low-latitude areas where the geopotential is increased, the effect of the plateau terrain is also evident in that it is favorable for the northern withdrawal of the tropical high ridge in Southern Hemisphere and the northern shift of the subtropical high in Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the effect also helps increase the polar easterly over the Southern Hemisphere and weaken the low zone at 500 hPa. It acts as an increasing factor for the polar vortex around the Ross Sea and contributes to the genesis of the Somali Jet on the equator.

An Analysis of the Spring-to-Summer Transition in the West Central Plains for Application to Long Range Forecasting

The spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting, as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the 500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also found that the onset of La Ni?a was associated with hotter summers in the region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association was much stronger here.

SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL MONSOON AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP) rain data are used to investigate the large scale seasonal transition of East Asian subtropical monsoon(EASM) and its possible mechanism.The key region of EASM is defined according to the seasonal transition feature of meridional wind.By combining the 'thermal wind' formula and the 'thermal adaptation' equation,a new 'thermal-wind-precipitation' relation is deduced.The area mean wind directions and thermal advections in different seasons are analyzed and it is shown that in summer(winter) monsoon period,the averaged wind direction in the EASM region varies clockwise(anticlockwise) with altitude,and the EASM region is dominated by warm(cold) advection.The seasonal transition of the wind direction at different levels and the corresponding meridional circulation consistently indicates that the subtropical summer monsoon is established between the end of March and the beginning of April.Finally,a conceptual schematic explanation for the mechanism of seasonal transition of EASM is proposed.

The Role of Land-sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part II： Orography

The role of various mountains in the Asian monsoon system is investigated by AGCM simulations with different mountains. The comparison of the simulation with Asian mountains （MAsia run） with the simulation without mountains （NM run） reveals that the presence of the Asian mountains results in a stronger South Asian summer monsoon （SASM）, characterized by enhanced lower-tropospheric westerly winds, uppertropospheric easterly winds, and stronger water vapor convergence. In East Asia, the southerly winds and water vapor convergence are significantly strengthened in association with the intensified zonal pressure gradient between the East Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean. Both the dynamical and thermodynamic forcing of the Tibetan Plateau play important role in strengthening the Asian summer monsoon. In winter, the presence of Asian mountains significantly strengthens the continental high, which leads to a stronger Asian winter monsoon. The presence of African-Arabian mountains helps to intensify the exchange of mass between the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere by strengthening the cross equatorial flows in the lower and upper troposphere over East Africa. Asian mountains also play a crucial role in the seasonal evolution of Asian monsoons. In comparison with the NM run, the earlier onset and later withdrawal of lower-tropospheric westerly winds can be found over South Asia in the MAsia run, indicating a longer SASM period. The African-Arabian mountains also moderately contribute to the seasonal variation of the South Asian monsoon. In East Asia, the clear southto-north march of the southerly winds and subtropical rainfall starts to occur in early summer when the effects of Asian mountains are considered.

T_(BB) DATA-REVEALED FEATURES OF ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ASIAN SUMMER MONSOOM ESTABLISHMENT

Based on TBB data from Meteorological Institute Research of Japan, study is carried out of the features of seasonal transition of Asian-Australian monsoons and Asian summer monsoon establishment,indicating that the transition begins as early as in April, followed by abrupt change in May-June; the Asian summer monsoon situation is fully established in June. The winter convective center in Sumatra moved steadily northwestward across the "land bridge" of the maritime continent and the Indo-China Peninsula as time goes from winter to summer, thus giving rise to the change in large scale circulations that is responsible for the summer monsoon establishment over SE Asia and India; the South China Sea to the western Pacific summer monsoon onset bears a close relation to the active convection in the Indo China Peninsula and steady eastward retreat of the subtropical TBB high-value band,corresponding to the western Pacific subtropical high.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE EARLY SUMMER IN EAST ASIA IN 1991

By employing the CCM1(R15L12)long-range spectral model, study is undertaken of the effects of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) for tropical Indian ocean on circulation transformation in the early summer in East Asia in 1991. The results indicate that warmer SSTA contributes to the increasing of the temperature over the Plateau in early summer, resulting in the intensification of tropical easterly jet on 100 hPa and northward shift of Northern Hemisphere subtropical westerly jet in May. It is obviously favorable for the subtropical high enhancement over western Pacific Ocean in May and subtropical westerly jet maintaining at 35～40 °N in June, making the Mei-Yu come earlier and stay over the Changjiang basin in 1991. Furthermore, warmer SSTA is also advantageous to averaged temperature rise in East Asia land region and Nanhai monsoon development. These roles are helpful in accelerating the seasonal transition for East Asia in early summer.

The Role of Land–sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part I: Land–sea Distribution

A number of AGCM simulations were performed by including various land–sea distributions （LSDs）, such as meridional LSDs, zonal LSDs, tropical large-scale LSDs, and subcontinental-scale LSDs, to identify their effects on the Asian monsoon. In seven meridional LSD experiments with the continent/ocean located to the north/south of a certain latitude, the LSDs remain identical except the southern coastline is varied from 40 ° to 4 ° N in intervals of 5.6° . In the experiments with the coastline located to the north of 21° N, no monsoon can be found in the subtropical zone. In contrast, a summer monsoon is simulated when the continent extends to the south of 21 ° N. Meanwhile, the earlier onset and stronger intensity of the tropical summer monsoon are simulated with the southward extension of the tropical continent. The effects of zonal LSDs were investigated by including the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean into the model based on the meridional LSD run with the coastline located at 21 °N. The results indicate that the presence of a mid-latitude zonal LSD induces a strong zonal pressure gradient between the continent and ocean, which in turn results in the formation of an East Asian subtropical monsoon. The comparison of simulations with and without the Indian Peninsula and Indo-China Peninsula reveals that the presence of two peninsulas remarkably strengthens the southwesterly winds over South Asia due to the tropical asymmetric heating between the tropical land and sea. The tropical zonal LSD plays a crucial role in the formation of cumulus convection.

Effect of ventilation on thermal and humidity environment of the underground utility tunnel in the plum rain season in southern China:Field measurement and CFD simulation

The underground utility tunnel(UUT)is one of the typical urban underground structures,which usually requires mechanical ventilation systems for forced ventilation.In addition to the ventilation scheme for accident scenarios,the normal operating ventilation scheme deserves equal attention as it has a great impact on the air quality as well as the thermal and humidity environment inside the UUT.In this study,a UUT located in southern China is taken as the research object,and the effect of ventilation on its internal thermal and humidity distribution is explored with a combined use of field measurements and numerical simulations.The results of field measurements show that the average temperature inside the closed UUT is 20.5℃and the average humidity ratio is 14.1 g/kgdry;both are lower than those of the external environment.In the plum rain season,if the tunnel is ventilated without any treatment of the external airflows,surface condensation tends to occur near the air inlet while the region with high relative humidity would be distributed on both sides far from the air inlet.The study also discusses the effect of different temperatures and humidity ratios of the inflow air on the humidity inside the UUT,and on this basis,the humidity control strategy for UUT in the plum rain season is proposed.

隧道防火门分流对端部临界送风风速的影响

在单洞双线轨道交通隧道发生火灾时,人员从火源上游防火门疏散,防火门的分流作用将影响端部送风风速。采用理论计算与数值模拟相结合的方法探究其影响关系,首先通过理论分析推导出了端部临界送风风速公式;随后,利用PyroSim软件建立了全尺寸模型,并针对不同数量防火门、火源热释放速率、隧道高度的分流情况进行了研究。结果表明:在相同火源热释放速率下,防火门的分流流速随着防火门开启数量的增多而减少;相同位置防火门的分流流速随火源热释放速率的增大呈指数增长的关系;防火门总分流量随防火门开启数量与热释放速率的0.3次方之积呈线性增长的关系,而受隧道高度的影响较小;结合理论推导,建立了端部临界送风风速的数学模型。研究结果为隧道火灾情况下的人员疏散和通风设计提供了科学依据。

相变石膏板围护结构隔热应用实验研究

为研究相变石膏板围护结构在过渡季节的储热性能,搭建了两间尺寸相同的实验对比房,将相变石膏板贴敷于围护结构内侧,测试对多种工况下实验对比房的室内温度及壁面温度,通过房间热性能分析探讨其在过渡季节的适用性。石膏板中的相变微胶囊以石蜡(正十八烷)为芯材,聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(Polymethyl methacrylate,PMMA)为壁材,相变温度28℃,相变潜热180 kJ/kg。在相同的室外气候条件下,进行一个月的多组工况实验研究,测试了室内空气温度和墙体表面温度的变化规律,并与普通房间进行了室内热环境对比分析。结果表明:相变石膏板热性能稳定;在杭州地区过渡季节最高可降低室内峰值温度1.10℃,减缓壁面温度波动1.18℃,延迟峰值时间40 min,降低室内温度不舒适度6.82℃·h/d,有效缓解了室内的温度波动,增强了围护结构的热惰性。此外,与夜间自然通风相比,相变围护结构在夜间通风的情况下可以减少室内不舒适度时间约2 h,减少累计室内温度不舒适度2.08℃·h/d,有效提高室内热舒适性。该研究通过对比实验验证了相变石膏板应用于围护结构的隔热效果,可为后续模拟研究提供参考。

基于典型气象年的游泳馆过渡季室外空气含湿量取值方法

游泳馆建筑室内湿负荷大,通风问题备受关注.过渡季室外空气含湿量是通风量计算的基本设计参数,含湿量的取值直接影响了建筑设计的合理性.我国目前使用最广泛的确定过渡季室外计算含湿量的方法是通风曲线法(Ventilation-Curve Method,V-C Method).然而,使用该方法确定的过渡季室外空气含湿量值无法反映不保证小时数,其取值合理性难以评估.提出了一个新的游泳馆过渡季室外空气含湿量取值方法,即典型过渡季法(Typical Transition Season Method,TTS Method).TTS法基于典型气象年(Typical Meteorological Year,TMY)数据挑选过渡季,并以多种不保证小时数计算出室外空气含湿量值,可以很好地表征当地常年气候特征,且能够清楚地反映不保证小时数.研究中选取中国6个典型代表城市,通过计算通风量和换气次数对所选含湿量进行了评估,验证了新方法的合理性.结果表明,TTS法得到的含湿量计算出的通风量更符合设计要求.