In this paper, some distinctive features of the vertical profile of precipitable liquid water content (LWC) with considerable respect to rain rates (R) and radar reflectivity (Z) obtained in a tropical location are pr...In this paper, some distinctive features of the vertical profile of precipitable liquid water content (LWC) with considerable respect to rain rates (R) and radar reflectivity (Z) obtained in a tropical location are presented. Assessment of LWC allows applications in the specific area of flight icing severity, aviation safety as well as signals traversing through the atmosphere. The parameters were typically measured using vertically-pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) over a period of 2 years (2011-2012) at Akure, a tropical location of Nigeria. The radar scanned at every 10 seconds and integrated over one minute samples to reduce event logging error associated with the instrument. The vertical profile of the LWC typically reveals a prominent seasonal variation. However, majority of the LWC profiles has low LWC, less than 0.1 gm?3 while the maximum observed LWC is about 3.18 gm?3. A strong like hood relation was observed between the melting layer height and the LWC, with the LWC reaches peak at the considerable height of about 4160 m which coincides precisely with the freezing height level (rain height of ~4520 m) of the study location. Good correlation was also observed between the LWC and R in most of the heights considered. The results obtained will assist system engineers to assess the level of absorption, reflection and attenuation of electromagnetic signals as a result of precipitable LWC along the transmitting paths. The novelty of the present work is in the area of linking LWC and Z as against usual relation between Z and R.展开更多
通过对2013—2016年西宁地区冰雹过程中VIL(Vertical Integrated Liquid Water Content)特征分析,得出了VIL对冰雹预警的判别指标和对冰雹路径指示:西宁地区降雹时间多出现在VIL最大值出现后的2~4个体扫,且在VIL值跃增后4~5个体扫时间内...通过对2013—2016年西宁地区冰雹过程中VIL(Vertical Integrated Liquid Water Content)特征分析,得出了VIL对冰雹预警的判别指标和对冰雹路径指示:西宁地区降雹时间多出现在VIL最大值出现后的2~4个体扫,且在VIL值跃增后4~5个体扫时间内;86.4%的降雹区在VIL达到最大值的周围区域4.5~21.0km范围内;冰雹出现时VIL阈值6、7、9月均为23kg·m^(-2),8月为28kg·m^(-2),跃增值6、9月为5kg·m^(-2),7、8月为10kg·m^(-2);经时效检验,VIL指标具有较好的预警提前性;VIL对冰雹路径有很好的指示意义,可以通过VIL的移动速度和方向外推做出降雹时间及落区预警。展开更多
文摘In this paper, some distinctive features of the vertical profile of precipitable liquid water content (LWC) with considerable respect to rain rates (R) and radar reflectivity (Z) obtained in a tropical location are presented. Assessment of LWC allows applications in the specific area of flight icing severity, aviation safety as well as signals traversing through the atmosphere. The parameters were typically measured using vertically-pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) over a period of 2 years (2011-2012) at Akure, a tropical location of Nigeria. The radar scanned at every 10 seconds and integrated over one minute samples to reduce event logging error associated with the instrument. The vertical profile of the LWC typically reveals a prominent seasonal variation. However, majority of the LWC profiles has low LWC, less than 0.1 gm?3 while the maximum observed LWC is about 3.18 gm?3. A strong like hood relation was observed between the melting layer height and the LWC, with the LWC reaches peak at the considerable height of about 4160 m which coincides precisely with the freezing height level (rain height of ~4520 m) of the study location. Good correlation was also observed between the LWC and R in most of the heights considered. The results obtained will assist system engineers to assess the level of absorption, reflection and attenuation of electromagnetic signals as a result of precipitable LWC along the transmitting paths. The novelty of the present work is in the area of linking LWC and Z as against usual relation between Z and R.
文摘通过对2013—2016年西宁地区冰雹过程中VIL(Vertical Integrated Liquid Water Content)特征分析,得出了VIL对冰雹预警的判别指标和对冰雹路径指示:西宁地区降雹时间多出现在VIL最大值出现后的2~4个体扫,且在VIL值跃增后4~5个体扫时间内;86.4%的降雹区在VIL达到最大值的周围区域4.5~21.0km范围内;冰雹出现时VIL阈值6、7、9月均为23kg·m^(-2),8月为28kg·m^(-2),跃增值6、9月为5kg·m^(-2),7、8月为10kg·m^(-2);经时效检验,VIL指标具有较好的预警提前性;VIL对冰雹路径有很好的指示意义,可以通过VIL的移动速度和方向外推做出降雹时间及落区预警。
文摘以大气垂直累积液态水含量的预报问题为例,使用UNet网络结构作为基础结构构建时空预报模型,对比了采用两类预报策略的模型的预报效果,预报策略包含一个迭代预报策略(Recursive Forecast Strategy,RFS)以及两个直接预报策略(Direct Forecast Strategies,DFSs)。研究结果表明,两个直接预报模型对整体预报时段的预报效果明显优于迭代预报模型,直接预报模型的RMSE比迭代预报模型低19%。随着预报时次的增加,迭代预报模型的预报误差累积速度比两个直接预报模型快。在两个直接预报模型中,多时次输出模型(Direct Forecast Model Multi-Steps,DFS-M)的预报表现更加稳健,在整体预报时段上预报效果优于单时次输出模型(Direct Forecast Model Single-Step,DFS-S),但DFS-S模型对几个前期时次的预报效果较好。本研究利用深度学习可解释性技术中的深度学习重要特征分析方法(Deep Learning Important FeaTures,DeepLIFT)分析DFS-M和DFS-S模型各个输入时次对于模型预报的相对重要性。研究结果表明,DFS-M和DFS-S模型80%的输入重要性都集中在最后两个输入时次上,较早期输入时次的重要性随着预报时次的增加而呈现上升趋势。由于各输出时次间存在一定的统计相关性,受输出时次相关性约束的DFS-M模型的输入时次重要性变化比DFS-S模型更加稳定。通过将DFS-M和DFS-S模型对于不同时次的预报进行结合,可以得到效果更加均衡的预报。本研究可以为基于深度学习的天气气候预报方法的选择提供新的思路。
文摘利用长春2007年5月16日的一次层状云降水过程的飞机观测资料,并结合天气图、卫星云图及雷达回波等资料,综合分析了此次降水过程中粒子浓度、粒子谱、雷达垂直累积液态水(vertical integrated liquidwater,VIL)、微波辐射计积分液态水(liquid water content,LWC)以及地面雨强特征。研究表明,层状云微结构在水平方向上的起伏较大,出现两次典型的含水量跃变:第1次液态水跃变主要是因为粒子浓度增加;第2次液态水跃变是因为粒子浓度和粒子谱共同作用的结果;雷达VIL值和地面雨强两者呈正相关。
